Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition

Word on Twitter is that Newspoll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 56-44 to 59-41, from primary votes of 27% for Labor (down two) and 51% for the Coalition (up three). But for a 26% result in the September 16-18 poll, this would be the lowest primary vote Labor had ever recorded since Newspoll commenced in 1985. The two-party figure ranks as the Gillard government’s equal worst result, along with the poll of September 2-4. Newspoll hasn’t always reported two-party preferred results, but my own calculations tell me there remain unbroken records from the respective honeymoon periods of Rudd (63-37 in February/March 2008) and Howard (60.5-39.5 in April 1996). Julia Gillard is up a point on disapproval to 63% and steady on approval at 28%, while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 55%. Tony Abbott has widened the preferred prime minister lead he gained in the previous poll, from 41-39 to 41-36. As always, the sample for the poll was around 1150, with a margin of error of 3%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,396 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41 to Coalition”

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  1. I bang on far too often about media bias but such criticisms are unfair in the case of the Pyne Affair, so far at least

    The SMH and The Australian have been breaking this stuff. VexNews has obviously been warned off the angle it took earlier in the week and since then it has been the mainstream papers steadily breaking down Pyne’s story – and if journos’ tweets last night were any indication are still digging.

    The ABC has been conspicuous by its absence. Mind you it managed to run a grab in Perth this morning from a Lib saying the government was cutting defence spending to spend the money on pink batts and school halls, so perhaps all Aunty’s clocks are stuck back in 2010.

  2. australian Pyne sought Ashby details, Abbott admits: TONY Abbott has admitted Christopher Pyne sent an email asking for the… bit.ly/Ka6IKW
    39 minutes ago

    I think it’s unfair for the Australian to say Abbott admitted it. He just recalibrated his response.

  4. Glen is going to be heart-broken about Brough.

    On the other hand, the gossip I hear is that he is a complete farkwit.

  5. davidwh

    You do realize that the LNP were trying to push Slipper out of his seat and give it to Mao Brough? What choice did Slipper have but to go Indie.

  8. I hate this budget already, cutting 13 weeks to 6 weeks just to save a few million.

    What Labor has done is stupid, they should give everyone Unlimited Portability, so that way people loose all the extra benefits (because those only last upto 26 weeks).

    Not happy with Bill Shorten.

  9. Don’t forget that Mal Brough is suing 7 News on the Sunshine Coast for inferring he attempted to bribe a mayoral candidate in the recent council elections.

    More Mal Brough lawsuits a-coming methinks.

  10. Victoria,

    What’s you view on the latest Pyne/Brough/Slipper/Ashby issue? Is it just a story at the edges for the tragics – or will it get to the nightly TV commercial news? Interested in your very canny political and media judgment. Tks.

  13. oakeshott never stops working for this electorate – he backed julia gillard because he didn’t trust abbott and rightly so – he cares nothing for his future electoral chances – he is a man of PRINCIPLE as is tony windsor – pity there weren’t more of them.]

    hear, hear. If I lived in Lyne I’d be terribly conflicted – wanting to vote Oakey in again while being a Labor member.

  15. Diogs,

    Why would Ashby meet with Brough, Slipper’s mortal enemy when he was still in the employ of Slipper?

    It appears that Slipper questoning Ashby’s loyalty and integrity may be well founded.

  16. Talk of Mal Brough brings to mind a comment made about him by a former very senior Public Servant who observed a meeting chaired by Brough. He said “there was no doubt in his (Broughs) mind that he was by far the most intelligent person present, unfortunately he produced absolutely no evidence that this was so”.

  18. Abbot implied that the reason they were trying to “get rid” of Slipper was because he had a less than exemplary history – the real reason was always to get Mal Brough in.

  19. So did Hockey mention what a disgrace it is that Mexico is a greater exporter of beer than us? He’s very fond of comparing us to random countries.

  20. I wonder who is bankrolling Brough. If he did give $50,000 to Ashby, as is alleged by Vex, where did he get it form?

  21. I will stand aside while Mal Brough is fighting the claim that met up with James Ashby Slipper accuser

  22. al palster

    I am hardly canny! But appreciate the sentiment.

    If it can be established to have been a set up by the LNP, it will have to be big news. Gamechanger comes to mind. It all depends on what angle the AFP are taking with this investigation. Are they questioning anyone connected to Ashby? Are they able to check phone records etc, I cant see how the AFP cannot do otherwise.
    Btw, i believe JG and govt already knew something was up from last week.
    Her words a line has been crossed was a clue

  24. The dots are starting to be linked. Wonder how close the reporters are to getting the a link from Pyne to Brough between the two hour drinkies and the meeting between Ashby and Brough. Surely Pyne wouldn’t have been dumb enough to commit that to an email.

    I wonder if Pyne will risk being asked on the floor of the house if he or any of his staff suggested Brough contact Ashby, gave Ashby’s details to Brough or advised Ashby to go to Brough.

    Still waiting too for a definitive statement from Ashby that he is paying all his own bills, in those words.

    Anyone thinking this is a beat=up needs to think long and hard if backroom conspiracies to attempt to unseat a government are acceptable, no matter how much you dislike the party in power.

  25. [I wonder who is bankrolling Brough. If he did give $50,000 to Ashby, as is alleged by Vex, where did he get it form?]

    Ru, the new White Shoes Brigade?

  27. Someone seems to be drip feeding this Ashby story to the media.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if next we hear that Ashby and Slipper are getting married with Clive Palmer the celebrant. Once JG changes the gay marriage laws, of course.

  28. victoria Slipper had the same choices members of all political parties have when they are facing a pre-selection battle. Most just cop it sweet and move on but for some reason QLD LNP’s people seem to spit the dummy and dump on their party. It probably goes back to long-term tensions between the Nats and Libs. Whatever the reason it’s not a good look for the LNP and the main reason Labor held government up here for so long.

    Whether this turns out to be another UteGate will very much depend on how the Slipper matters play out and what is eventually shown regarding the type of support Ashby was given. It’s probably going to be needed to be shown that the LNP was involved in fabricating charges for this to have a real impact on polling.

  30. it gets deeper and wider – any chance abbott might have to leave port macquarie to take charge of the mess? wishful thinking….

  31. Did Pyne contact Lewis, did Lewis contact Brough, did Pyne contact Brough?

    I reckon the answers will be fun to hear.

  32. Well, in meeting Slipper’s enemy, Ashby was either still doing his job just a few days before his leaving it, and maybe trying to reconcile Slipper and Brough (unlikely) or he was plotting or giving Brough a heads up (possible), he was chewing the fat (forgive word picture) with an old friend (also possible) or he was being blackmailed (unlikely).

    As neither Brough nor Ashby are talking to the media, there is only conjecture.

    Conject away!

  34. Do we know where Ashby is? Maybe we’ll all have to fly in with cameras and mikes, to hang about outside his house and car and check through his rubbish bin – obviously the MSM are far too busy!

  35. Victoria,
    You are. I think this issue could well turn out as you infer. Be interesting to see if it moves to the front pages – and before Slipper’s statement on Tuesday.

  36. [BH
    Posted Friday, May 4, 2012 at 3:03 pm | Permalink
    oakeshott never stops working for this electorate – he backed julia gillard because he didn’t trust abbott and rightly so – he cares nothing for his future electoral chances – he is a man of PRINCIPLE as is tony windsor – pity there weren’t more of them.]

    hear, hear. If I lived in Lyne I’d be terribly conflicted – wanting to vote Oakey in again while being a Labor member.]

    Simple BH vote 1 ALP 2 Oakey and you solve the problem

  39. The Pyne-Brough-abbott affair is about much more than polling. It’s about conspiracy to overthrow a government and political terrorism aided and abetted by … drum roll …a News Ltd journo. It’s a tad bigger than ute-gate.

  41. Now claimed by #MSMhacks – Ashby/Pyne/Brough and thrown in Steve Lewis, there’s more Lewis is linked back Turnbull/Grech of #Utegate1 – Nice

  42. shellbell

    the penalty is far worse thab it looks,he has served over 20 years,and if continues to serve his super will be far less with the loss of rank,then of course a hell of prestige,a bit like if pyne had to resign the speaker of the house.

  43. geezlouise I think I will leave shellbell to explain conspiarcy to overthrow and political terrorism. Mind you I think it’s been pretty obvious that Abbott has been conspiring to overthrow the Gillard government since September 2010 but I’m just not sure that’s illegal.

  44. Just a matter of interest is there a charge for conspiring to prop up a government by doing a secret deal to appoint a Speaker?

    Note – the above wasn’t meant to be serious.

  45. So the story so far is that Pyne, Brough and News Limited’s Lewis (all political opponents of Slipper) have all had meetings with Ashby in the run up to the release of accusations of the sexual harrassment and the criminal misuse of cab charge dockets.

    Once is happestance, two is co-incicdence, three is enemy activity……………

  46. [Mind you I think it’s been pretty obvious that Abbott has been conspiring to overthrow the Gillard government since September 2010 but I’m just not sure that’s illegal.]

    Depends on the chosen method.

  47. [Just a matter of interest is there a charge for conspiring to prop up a government by doing a secret deal to appoint a Speaker?]

    Read the papers recently?

  48. Can everybody be a little less noisy about the Pyne Affair please – you might wake the ABC up.

    I know its senior correspondents all said there was nothing to this a couple of days ago and don’t want to be embarrassed, but you know, this is NEWS, wherever it eventually leads.

  50. schnappi

    Fair enough.

    I suppose it is difficult to compare military and civil penalties but if he was in a workplace he would rightfully have been summarily dismissed and faced a separate criminal sanction

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