Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. Diogs,

    Weak as water.

    If the Libs want a pogrom on expenses then there will be collateral damage.

    From where I sit, Slipper will be interviewed, asked to explain the dockets in question. From reports this morning, other MPs use exactly the same process Slipper used to reconcile their expenses. Does this mean 30 or so MPs are rorting the system?

    Unless there is clear evidence of an attempt to defraud, then this story will blow away and slipper will be back large and in charge of Parliament come May 8.

  2. [Pascoe vale is only 10ks from the City]

    victoria – and Mascot airport is only a stone’s throw from Central Sydney where we once stayed o/night before our first flight out of Sydney. Had to get a very early morning flight – no traffic and the taxi took us all over the joint. We had no idea where the Airport was but only knew Sydney was notorious for getting to the airport quickly.

    When we told someone on our flight the cost of the taxi he laughed and said ‘gee, they had you – new to the place, are you?’ From then on we directed the cabs the way we wanted to go.

  3. If this does turn into a slanging match in parliament it will be interesting to see what the government has to throw back at the opposition.

  4. [This is not about pinning Slipper, it is about stopping the positive momentum in order to make this govt look incompetent. You can almost set your watch by a new crisis anytime the govt look good.]

    Dennis Atkins on Insiders laid it all out, chapter and verse. They’re so sure of themselves, they think they can play the game with all their cards face up:

    [What happens is that most media outlets will start reassessing the strategy for covering the Budget. Do we send our senior political journalists into the Budget lockup, or do we keep them out to watch a potential political and Constitutional crisis on the floor of the parliament? It’s going to be a juggling act in terms of how we cover those two comnpeting stories, and I think the public should be in no doubt that these are two stories of equal gravity.

    This is a huge political story that could have enormous political ramifications for the government whose future depends on which way it goes and how it plays out. So it’s going to completely overshadow Wayne Swan’s Budget.

    The government this week was sort-of putting together all the blocks for its Budget selling, and the message it wanted with the Budget. Speeches and interviews carefully placed here and there. Keylines and themes were going really well. The government was singing from one song-sheet. And I think they all got up Friday morning and thought “This is all going well. We know where we’re headed and we seem to be putting one foot in front of the other”, which for this government is quite a feat.

    Then suddenly, Saturday morning: WHACKO! The whole thing is blown asunder.]

  5. confessions

    Melbourne Airport is on the western side of Melbourne. Easy access to the city via the freeway. I am happy where it is located as it does not impinge on the city itself or greater Melbourne.

  6. Leveson and the Murdochs (From the article Gaffhook posted earlier on Robert Jay):

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/apr/22/robert-jay-leveson-rupert-murdoch?CMP=twt_gu

    [The Radio 4 Media Show presenter and Leveson watcher Steve Hewlett said that if Murdoch decided to “dish the dirt” on certain political meetings, “then Jay will have delivered. He will have set Leveson up nicely for the next module when Cameron and Blair are in. And that is what this is all about. Then we will have the mother of all battles on our hands.”]

    This paragraph nicely encapsulates the ‘shit’ that could really go down from here on as the combined police investigations, briefs handed to the DPP, the public hearings of the Leveson Inquiry and the resulting Leveson recommendations all come together.

  7. BB

    It has been blown usunder somewhat, but as Slipper said he will return to the chair once he has been cleared re cab charges, Abbott now wants him to stay away during the civil proceedings re sexual harrassment.

  8. Leroy – did you see the Emmo interview on ABC Breakfast. He really went for it. Named Fisher and Laming as not stepping aside when criminal charges laid.

    He also named Turnbull during the HIH investigations and said he stayed in the Parliament and voted. Said how can Turnbull now vote to oust somebody when he himself was given privilege to stay in the Parliament.

    Said why is there one rule for Liberal and a different one for Labor. It was a fiery but well pointed interview by Emmo. He is a Labor fighter not a leaker.

  9. 702 Sydney It is being argued that if it is a matter of principle then the Liberals have to step up to the plate. That is. The Liberals provide someone to be Speaker so there is no political advantage to the Coaliton and then it is clear it is indeed a matter of principle. It is the pollies forum. Simon someone arguing the point.

  10. I think I stand to be corrected on Laming. Were his charges civil or criminal? any whatever, he stayed in the Parliament and voted with Howard.

  11. Good morning, Bludgers.

    Still yesterday’s news, with madder than ever efforts from Grattan & Lewis. If this proves to e a set-up, I doubt Slipper will be as magnanimous as Rudd when it comes to defamation proceedings.

    Well, NewsLtd has certainly managed to con all MSM into ignoring anything else about the Government. Deleted Friday’s Aged Policy completely, as far as I can see.

    So, to keep our eyes on the real prize, here’s some backgrounding of what you’ll see when the Leveson Inquiry resumes Robert Jay, Leveson’s forensic inquirer, prepares to face Rupert Murdoch

    [He has prosecuted multinationals for dumping toxic waste off the west coast of Africa and defended the government over alleged colonial atrocities in Kenya. And on Wednesday Robert Jay QC will come face to face with Rupert Murdoch at the Leveson inquiry…

    A leading silk in administrative and public law, Jay’s most high-profile case up to now was against the oil-trading company Trafigura in 2007, which agreed to pay £30m in compensation to 31,000 people in Ivory Coast who claimed they had fallen ill after toxic waste was dumped on rubbish tips , poured down drains and left at roadsides.]

    Burgey
    [Are the civil proceedings against Mrs Mirabella on Foot]

    A clever addition to the reasons for NewsLtd’s Look over there! Look over there! tactics!

    And the latest article in Guardian’s Battle for the Internet. The HCA/ iinet case isn’t mentioned, so I’ve included the link to What have we missed if you want to add it 🙂

    Battle for the Internet: The Guardian’s Open 20: fighters for internet freedom

    From politicians and professors to computer scientists and the first programmer, champions of the open internet.

    Who have we missed? Nominate your choices for the Open 20 here.

  12. Danny Lewis @ 3121

    vic, with Wilkie the pokie thing is King

    Yeah, and that is the thing I just don’t get.

    Abbott has been very vocal – from Day 1 – in his support of Clubs Australia and their attempts to stop the poker machine legislation.

    Gillard, on the other hand, is STILL proposing reform, only just not in the same format that Wilkie wanted.

    He has the option of supporting someone who wants the same outcome as him, or supporting someone who has no interest in dealing with this issue at all.

    Now, bear that in mind the next time you hear Wilkie give his 2 cents’ worth on either Abbott or Gillard.

    Abbott actually went to a pokies meeting hosted by Clubs Australia and pronounced loudly that he would oppose the legislation and, in government (if it got up) repeal it. What was Wilkie’s response? Oh, that’s just Abbott telling his audience what he thinks they want to hear. I’ll talk to him first before I make up my own mind.

    Hello?

    What part of “if he’s lying to their faces, what makes you think he won’t lie to your face as well” does this drongo not understand?

    Sheesh.

    I ended up watching a TV program last night “Australian Families of Crime” which detailed the careers of some charming people such as Lennie McPherson and George Freeman”.

    It mentioned at one point their move to muscle in on the “Clubs Industry” in NSW to get a slice of the vast streams of pokies revenue.

    It made me wonder to what extent organised crime is enmeshed with the “Clubs Industry” in NSW and other states and also the casinos. I do understand that Crown Casino in Melbourne is the largest money laundering facility in the Southern Hemisphere.

    A rigorous inquiry into these so-called “industries” (better understood as government franchised organised crime) is long overdue.

  13. [joe2
    Posted Monday, April 23, 2012 at 9:39 am | Permalink
    They blew it, bb, Steve must be so pissed.]
    Blew it big time; by about a fortnight.

    Major fuss could have caused by the release on May 7.
    Strategically speaking though maximum fuss would have occurred if the story was released the day after the Budget, which would have completely buried the Budget AND the usual useless Budget Reply from the economic no-hopers of the Oppo.

  14. Two sides to the question???
    Michelle: “Sleaze the day”
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/sleaze-the-day-the-tactic-that-now-dogs-alp-20120422-1xf6q.html

    [JAMES Ashby, the adviser who has made sexual harassment claims against Speaker Peter Slipper, has had his own run-in with the law and has made few friends in the media.]
    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/slippers-accuser-was-fined-over-phone-threat-20120422-1xf6v.html#ixzz1sof205dP

  15. Would SA PBers with access to The Sunday Mail please read the article, with colour pictures, on stolen pets. There are pictures of currently missing dogs, cats and birds. Perhaps tear it out and put it on your work or club etc noticeboard, in case anyone sees these stolen pets.

    Sometimes these papers do something good and that article was one of them. .

  16. Danny Lewis @ 3121
    re Wilkie,
    Wilkie is first and foremost for Wilkie. He came into the public eye as a whistleblower and, if you look beyond the surface of his reasons for blowing the whistle, you will find it was more because he thought he would attain hero status rather than doing the right thing. His persistance got him nowhere and neither did the book he wrote get him satisfaction. Mr. Wilkie remained an insignificant person who blew a whistle.

    So, in a stroke of luck he managed to win a senate seat and found himself to be a crucial player in the forming of a minority government. He sided with Labor more out of the spite he felt for the tories regarding his whistle-blowing episode. His pokie reform agenda was handed to him by Xenephon and immediately he became part of the minority government, he began to use the media to advertise his brain farts and ensure the govt did not forget that one, Andrew Wilkie, had the means to make or break it.

    From day 1, Wilkie was out in the media telling one and all that if the government did not get his pokie reforms debated and passed into law by …(whatever date) then he would pull the plug and withdraw his vote. He did absolutely nothing in the way of elbow grease to sell his pokie reforms to the rest of his minority govt colleagues and when the numbers were not there, he blamed the PM and accused her of breaking their deal. His arrogance and sense of self precludes compromise or logical reasoning.

    He has gone back to his tory roots because the grubby Mr. Abbott has promised him to direct tory preferences to him at the election (which, if they play their cards right, could be this week or even next week). Andrew Wilkie knows bloody well he is unlikely to hold his seat and is simply out to save his lousy, rotten hide.

  17. Heh, I will be in Visitors Gallery in Canberra for QT and Budget speech, maybe for the chimp’s Budget Reply speech. Don’t think I will be bored somehow!

  18. janice2
    [He did absolutely nothing in the way of elbow grease to sell his pokie reforms to the rest of his minority govt colleagues and when the numbers were not there, he blamed the PM and accused her of breaking their deal. ]

    That’s what really turned me against him.

  19. Who will the Liberals pick to be Speaker to prove they are acting on principle?

    Chris Pyne? Bronwyn “I know all the standing orders” Biship, The Deputydeputy speaker?

  20. [It made me wonder to what extent organised crime is enmeshed with the “Clubs Industry” in NSW and other states and also the casinos. I do understand that Crown Casino in Melbourne is the largest money laundering facility in the Southern Hemisphere.]

    Yep, Bemused.

    And in just about every smelly, borderline or outright illegal activity in Australia there is someone with links to the Liberal Party.

  21. The important player in all of this is Slipper himself. Yesterday he decided to step aside whilst the financial matters were investigated, and said he would return to the chair once he was cleared to do so. We shall see if he does this, as for me it will mean he is confident going forward

  22. The ALP need a MASSIVE collapse in this ‘case’ to get out unscathed. The allegations need to be so thoroughly discredited that they become the party people sympathise with. Anything short will only increase the ‘polling’ pain.

    I know that many who post here can march on in steadfast defiance, but I felt sick to my stomach reading this mornings papers…

    Any 1 July handouts will be pocketed without an ounce of appreciation.

    For those that can maintain the rage, please do so. This is about the only place to come for encouragement. I would say there is not one news outlet in this country that is prepared to report fact or investigate beyond the latest radio apperance or door stop.

    The friendly voices are niche and heard by too few.

    **My say now you can berate me for being pessimistic 🙂

  23. Tony Windsor
    [ “If Tony Abbott wants to test the confidence in the Government, do it in the house, not in the press”]
    Says it all, really.

  24. Joe2,
    No, I don’t have evidence but I’ll bet the rest of my life on it ! What else could Abbott give/promise Wilkie to secure his support? Wilkie knows Abbott is a liar and a cheat but he wants to hang on to his seat and he’s prepared to give the benefit of the doubt that Abbott will come up with the goods.

  25. Where is James Ashby?

    Why has no-one interviewed him?

    He can’t be all that shy, as he gave advance notice of his court filings to Steve Lewis?

    Why so quiet now?

    Where is he?

  26. [From day 1, Wilkie was out in the media telling one and all that if the government did not get his pokie reforms debated and passed into law by …(whatever date) then he would pull the plug and withdraw his vote. He did absolutely nothing in the way of elbow grease to sell his pokie reforms to the rest of his minority govt colleagues and when the numbers were not there, he blamed the PM and accused her of breaking their deal.]

    … and that is the bit about Wilkie that really grinds my gears.

    This legislation was never going to be easy to pass once the Libs made it clear they were opposed to it and Clubs Australia launched their ill-informed and, at times, vicious campaign.

    Wilkie could have been in the media every day calling out the Opposition for not supporting the Bill, or calling Clubs Australia a bunch of liars. But he didn’t.

    He literally sat back on his hands and said nothing until the die was already cast. Once it was obvious the government didn’t have the numbers to get the Bill up and they decided to change tack, he should have acknowledged the difficulties and vowed to work with the government to nut out a Bill that would get past the parliament.

    Instead he blamed everyone but himself for the failure and someone should tell him in no uncertain terms that we actually might have half-decent legislation – close to what he wanted – RIGHT NOW, if he had gotten off his freckle and worked for it.

  27. mm

    Bandt Windsor and Oakie will continue to support the govt. Crook has not to date. katter said he would not support a no confidence motion unless corruption against the govt was involved, and Wilkie, well who bloody knows!!

  28. [“If Tony Abbott wants to test the confidence in the Government, do it in the house, not in the press”]

    Tony Windsor: absolutely peerless, daylight second.

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