Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 62 of 71
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  1. Slipper has been under a cloud for 10 years it seems, why could the LNP never land a blow on him. Is this the last throw of the dice, because I suspect that Slipper can cause MAD for himself and some of his colleagues.

  2. I would say you have seen the wargame. Quickly resolved set aside of Slipper takes the PR sting out of the situation.

    The new PR king guiding JG is one for creating positives out of a crisis. Expect to see more.

  3. [Slipper was being booted because he was a trouble. Labor may be happy to use such people to remain in government but I’m very happy he is not a lib anymore.]
    Slipper was looked after while the Libs needed the numbers. We all know it. As soon as he ratted on them wheels were put into motion by your mob. We all know that too.

  4. rummel

    Do you seriously believe that neither the coalition or the Labor party were aware of slipper’s misdemeanours until now?

  6. victoria,

    This is not about pinning Slipper, it is about stopping the positive momentum in order to make this govt look incompetent. You can almost set your watch by a new crisis anytime the govt look good.

  8. SK

    Obvously Limited News, their ABC and the rest if the msm together with the coalition, want to continue the meme today even though Slipper has stood aside.
    They are pushing their luck the same way they did with every other situation that has preaented itself.

  11. [Question is was Slipoer stupid enough to fall into that trap? Or did he smell a set up?]

    Vic, Bond, James Bond, was happily fell into Tatiana’s Honey Trap, but with Tatiana, who wouldnt 😉

    From James with Love

  13. [Do you seriously believe that neither the coalition or the Labor party were aware of slipper’s misdemeanours until now?]

    Vic.

    No , that’s why the libs were trying and going to boot him. Then came along a PM who gave him one of the highest jobs in the land. Smart politics eh! Can’t wait to see how the budget go’s now. Swany would be having a tantrum with all his budget lime light getting sucked away.

  14. [No , that’s why the libs were trying and going to boot him.]
    After 10 years of knowing this. They took their sweet time.

  16. rummel

    You are not seeing the wood for the trees. Apparently, there were serious complaints made to the Liberal heirarchy in 2003 about Slipper’s conduct. It was ignored then and thereafter. Whilst Howard was PM and then under opposition leaders, Nelson, Turnbull and Abbott. Abbott supported Slipper at the last election in 2010. Do you not find any of this passing strange? Come on really think about it.

  17. [I would say you have seen the wargame. Quickly resolved set aside of Slipper takes the PR sting out of the situation.]

    Steve Lewis released now because he thought Slipper would hang in there, mucking things up in the lead up to the budget with crisis!, crisis!, crisis!.

    My bet is Slipper will be back in the chair by then as the whole thing looks like another Grech style put up job, complete with one of it’s dodgy authors.

  18. Does anyone really believe the former member of the Liberals, the accuser, would have put in a complaint while Slipper was a Liberal member?

  22. [If it was all so well known by both sides, why the hell would Gillard put her self in the compromised position?]

    Rummu, because:

    People seem to have forgotten one very important point, everyone agrees that Peter Slipper’s been doing his job well as the Speaker #auspol

  29. (Newspaper sales fall by anywhere between 5% and 16% a year, and the books business is gearing up for a world where 40% of titles will be digital this year. Even the newest “broadcasters” are little more )

    From the above guardian link

  30. And also Finnigans, Slipper has not been charged with anything, and even if he was, he would be innocent till proven guilty; unlike Senator Mary Jo Fisher who was, of assault.

  33. BK, yes, we are all know what a grub Abbott is.

    But what really gets me is Andrew Wilkie, that he would even think of sleeping on the same bed with Abbott.

  35. This article is a laugh. Last part of article

    [There is the risk for the Opposition that if this turns into a drawn-out war, key Liberals could be called before the Federal Court and asked if they covered-up or ignored past claims against Slipper.

    Slipper is confident he has no criminal case to answer and will soon return to the Speakership.

    If claims against him are proved, Gillard and Labor will be the biggest losers.

    But the Liberals may not get away unscathed.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/slipper-scandal-could-also-snag-libs/story-e6frfhqf-1226335723099

  36. Finny,

    But what really gets me is Andrew Wilkie, that he would even think of sleeping on the same bed with Abbott.

    Shouldn’t surprise you. They’re two of a kind.

  37. [Did we expect Abbott to shut up about this today?]

    Vic, obviously not, because his natural instinct is to hang out in the gutter, but it is likely to blow up in his face.

  38. Joe2

    Perhaps it is wishful thinking on my part, but i feel that there is going to be some serious blowback on the Libs

  40. I heard Barry Cassidy on 3AW this morning and he made the following points:

    1. The sexual harassment charges is a civil matter which may drag on for months.

    2. The cab charge issue is a criminal matter which CAN be and probably WILL be settled fairly quickly.

    3. The “bulk” method Slipper used for dispensing the cab charge dockets to his limousine driver was fairly common among MPs of both sides.

    4. If Slipper is cleared of any wrong doing over the cab charges he could be back in the speaker’s chair by the budget session. (Cassidy went further and said Slipper would probably insist on resuming the role under those circumstances).

    5. The character of his sexual accuser has a question mark over it and there are also questions being asked as to why he didn’t try to settle the matter “in house” before going public and getting himself a celebrity lawyer, which is normally the case in these matters.

    I was left with the impression that although Cassidy saw the matter as a problem for the government there are aspects of it that could turn into a headache for the opposition.

    Watch this space.

  42. Darn

    Appreciate the report. Cassidy sums up the state of play rather well.

    I am keenly watching this space without the popcorn. (ate too much over easter)

  44. Once again, Tony Windsor is the most rationale, fair & balance politician. He probably also knows more about the grubbiness of the LNP

  45. Morning All

    Will be fascinating to see how this all unfolds – couple of questions /points i’d raise

    1 – why did Ashby not go to the police but rather straight to a civil case? I’m guessing the burden of proof isn’t the same??

    2 – why did Slipper hire someone so closely linked to the LNP after ratting on them, or could he simply not resist???

    3 – will, as the should be, questions be asked about why the Liberals didn’t act on the claims made in 2003 and raised in the civil case??

    4 – the cabcharge issue sounds like a non-issue, the use of limos in NSW and Queensland is often cheaper than using taxis

    5 – can DOFA wrap it all up in 2 weeks???

    6 – will Anna Burke vote if required? I’d suggest she will, the current opposition has scrapped most parliamentary protocols so why not???

  47. Yes finns i should be in melbourne today with baby and mum
    Wilkie has said nothing about the 600 dollars it was going to cost me for todays check up. Re flight costs. Tasmanias are hostages at the monent. Tiger airlines return in november
    People like bruce goodluck would of been all over the media for his people he was a lmember years ago

    our son is in melboune business meering, so is helping her get from airport to childrens
    Hospital but i still wish it was me.

  49. my say

    Trust all will go well for your daughter and grandson today. Hope they brought warm clothes with them? The weather has finally got very fresh here in Melbourne. Up until yesterday we have had glorious weather.

  50. joe2

    I know. Macklin was saying on Friday that she had written to Wilkie about it and was waiting for his response. Not sure of the details though

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