Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has simultaneously published phone and face-to-face poll results. The phone poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a modest sample of 697, with a margin of error a bit below 4%. This tells very much the same story as other recent phone polling: Labor on 30%, the Coalition on 47.5% and the Greens on 11.5%. As is generally the case with phone polling, the two-party result is much the same whether determined by respondent allocation (57-43 to the Coalition) or applying the preference distribution from the last election (56-44).

The phone poll also gauged opinion on global warming and the carbon tax. On global warming, 35% believe concerns exaggerated, up three on October last year; 50% opted for “if we don’t act now it will be too late”, up six points; and 12% chose “it is already too late”, down eight points. Support for the carbon tax was at 34.5%, down 2.5%, with opposition up two to 59%. Support for the Coalition’s promise to repeal the tax if elected was up four points to 49% with opposition down five to 43%.

The face-to-face poll combines results from the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, with a sample of 1770. On the primary vote, this has Labor down a point on the previous survey to 31%, the Coalition up two to 46.5% and the Greens down half a point to 12.5%. As usual with these polls, and in contrast to the phone poll result, the difference between the two measures of the two-party result is cavernous (though terrible for Labor either way): 55-45 using the previous election method, but 59.5-40.5 using respondent allocation.

UPDATE: Spur212 in comments points out the following fascinating finding on the question of “who do you think will win”, which I normally don’t even bother to look at. Since the last Morgan phone poll in early February – before the Kevin Rudd leadership challenge – expectations of a Labor win have plummeted from 31% to 14%, while the Coalition has soared from 57% to 76.5%.

Also:

• The ABC reports that Dean Smith, a lobbyist and former adviser to former WA Premier Richard Court and federal MP Bronwyn Bishop, has been preselected for the third position on the WA Liberals’ Senate ticket at the election, behind incumbents David Johnston and Michaelia Cash. This makes it likely, though apparently not quite certain, that he will fill the casual vacancy created by the death on March 31 of Judith Adams.

• The Liberal member for Hume, Alby Schultz, has made long-anticipated announcement that he will retire at the next election. This sets the scene for what promising to be a bruising contest for the seat between the Liberals and Schultz’s bitter enemy, the Nationals. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports relations between the two have fractured over the Liberals’ moves to preselect candidates ahead of time in anticipation of a potential early election. The Nationals say this dishonours an agreement that preselections would wait until the two parties had reached their agreement determining which seats would be contested by which parties and the order of the Coalition Senate ticket, which has not left them of a mind to leave Hume to the Liberals. The most widely mooted potential Liberal candidate has been Angus Taylor, a 45-year-old Sydney lawyer, Rhodes Scholar and triathlete. Taylor is said to be close to Malcolm Turnbull, and to have the backing of Schultz. For the Nationals’ part, it has long been suggested that Senator Fiona Nash might try her hand at the seat, and The Australian now reports that Katrina Hodgkinson, state Primary Industry Minister and member for Burrinjuck, might also be interested.

• Imre Salusinszky and James Massola of The Australian further report that friction between the Liberals and Nationals in NSW might further see the Nationals field a candidate in Gilmore, where Liberal member Joanna Gash is retiring (and where one of the Liberal preselection candidates is Alby Schultz’s son Grant), and Farrer, which Sussan Ley gained for the Liberals when Tim Fischer retired in 2001.

• The Liberal preselection for Gilmore will be held tomorrow. Notwithstanding the aforementioned candidacy of Grant Schultz, The Australian reports it is “considered a close contest between local councillor Anne Sudmalis, who is close to Ms Gash, and education administrator Andrew Guile, who is supported by local state MP Gareth Ward”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,538 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. jenauthor

    I dont blame you for being mad. These past few years have been utterly frustrating. When will the worm turn?

  2. Thank you maquire bob
    Thats before the hockey thing and only judt on time but not noted for the bonus payments, and now the age policy

    I get the feeling you know more than u let on love your posts

  4. Absolutely dreadful polling of recent times for the Govt.

    However, I find it interesting that BOTH Hockey and Turnbull are in the news talking widely about either the entitlement thingo or Howard and Costello pissing it all up against the wall. Is this s concerted effort from the 2 pretenders to the LOTO post? A joint ticket? JoHo as leader and MT as Treasurer?

    Glad the election is not being held tomorrow.

  5. What’s with Turnbull being honest today – firstly about Howard/Costello/Hockey/MT being slack and wasteful with money and now

    [@lukedez Turnbull admits the #carbontax is exactly like the fixed-price period b4 ETS that he had as policy #losttoAbbottby1vote #auspol
    Retweeted by Aspirational Geek ]

  7. Very true SK. I have to admit I enjoyed studying economics, financial management and stats. I think I’m a bit strange.

  8. BH

    [What’s with Turnbull being honest today – firstly about Howard/Costello/Hockey/MT being slack and wasteful with money and now]

    See my post above. I smell something in the air. And I hope it is the smell of burning budgie smugglers.

  10. [Concera Vota ‏ @conceravota
    Channel 10 obviously didn’t tell these oldies what the policy actually IS. FMD our media is completely FUCKED! (And I don’t usually swear)]

    [hughriminton ‏ @hughriminton
    Net cost of government’s $3.7b aged care reforms is $577m. Govt is clawing back >$3b in means tests and “redirected” funding. #auspol]

  11. [CTar1
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 5:17 pm | Permalink
    mari – Enjoy your trip.

    The prime topic when I was there last year was declining real estate values or maybe the possibility that it would happen – that might have been local to where I wa]
    From what I gather they are shot in UK, in Athens an awful lot of homelessness especially people who 2 years ago were in good jobs. When I first went over to the UK in 1991 it was a case of find the house that wasn’t for sale , don’t think it is quite as bad there yet!

  12. [Gordon Graham ‏ @gordongraham

    Concetta Fierravanti-Wells told ABC radio today that the Coalition is considering making children pay for their parents aged care #ohdear ]

  14. [People wonder about the PMs message getting through when the media garbles it and then puts Abbott on to trash it (when he admitted he hadn’t read the policy yet).]

    Abbott doesn’t need to read Labor policies. Today he said on 2GB that it was enough to know this was a Labor policy for him to conclude it couldn’t possibly work.

    God damn you Rudd, for caving in on Pink Batts. It validated EVERYTHING they’d been saying about the government and gave an excuse to condemn every other thing that labor had done to rescue the nation from the GFC, to the point where a majority seem to believe there was no GFC, just an excuse for Labor to send the country broke.

  18. [lizzie
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 5:21 pm | Permalink
    mari

    Thanks for that. I didn’t realise Paul B was not universal. I’ve only recently watched Ch10 news headlines because I thought he was a bit objective, but I don’t think I’ll bother any more.]
    I tweeted Paul B last week and asked him about something he tweeted and didn’t appear on Sydney ch 10, he answered and said he reported it on Brisbane Adelaide and Brisbane I think he said. Obviously Hugh R seems to be mainly on Sydney and Melbourne, wonder why?

  20. [I wonder how Hadley and Jones will represent the changes to aged care.]

    See my #114: it’s Labor, so it’s bound to fail.

  22. (Absolutely dreadful polling of recent times for the Govt.)

    This gap of 10 doesnt worry me at all. Only 10 in 100 need to change andwith that i read that here
    very small sample

    And margin of error and mobile phone its most likley less

  24. [God damn you Rudd, for caving in on Pink Batts. It validated EVERYTHING they’d been saying about the government and gave an excuse to condemn every other thing that labor had done to rescue the nation from the GFC, to the point where a majority seem to believe there was no GFC, just an excuse for Labor to send the country broke.]
    BB
    I’m afraid you have exactly nailed it. Pink batts and BER program successes must be properly explained again and again. And there is no easy way. Perhaps they should get some well researched reviews and opinions and shove them down the MSM’s throat and call them out on it when they won’t report it.

  26. Bushfire

    Rudd got so many good vibes for apologising to the Stolen Gens that he thought (following Beattie) that it would always suffice. I sympathise with your frustration.

  29. BB and BK

    What Rudd should have done was set up a Royal Commission into workplace safety in Queensland standards regarding roofing. That is the State at fault. Was not national problem from memory.

  30. davidwh

    [SK I get all excited when statisticians talk dirty about econometrics]
    Econometrics ? Try some hot hot chemometrics 😉

  32. [BH
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 5:25 pm | Permalink
    mari – we need you to report on the NewsLtd stuff as well please. The locals may have a different view to us.]

    Perhaps by the time I go O/s end of May and in UK middle of July the Murdochs will be languishing in Jail, wishful thinking I know but want to play Hallelujah courtesy of Poroti

  34. mari

    Just think,whilst in Ingurland you could, if the mood takes you, go and listen to the wonderful choir that sang Hallelujah in the clip 🙂

  36. [guytaur
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 5:48 pm | Permalink
    crossing fingers for you there Mari]
    So am I plus a few toes etc as is Poroti and I guess a lot of other PBs

  37. guytaur

    [What Rudd should have done was set up a Royal Commission into workplace safety in Queensland standards regarding roofing. That is the State at fault. Was not national problem from memory.]

    It was a Queensland problem and from memory charges were brought against some of the installers.

  38. [Televised: Channel 9 – Delayed 7.30pm; Fox Sports – Delayed 11.30pm.]

    This is a Test Match between Australia and New Zealand. Sack the lot of em Conroy. I want my stream TV.

  39. [poroti
    Posted Friday, April 20, 2012 at 5:49 pm | Permalink
    mari

    Just think,whilst in Ingurland you could, if the mood takes you, go and listen to the wonderful choir that sang Hallelujah in the clip]
    You are so right one of the people I am visiting isn’t too far from there, and he hates Conservatives over their (Tories so libs here)

  40. [Concetta Fierravanti-Wells told ABC radio today that the Coalition is considering making children pay for their parents aged care]

    Singapore has a Maintenance of Parents Act, children have legal obligation to take care of their elderly parents, failing which parents can sue their children for a monthly allowance.

  41. Now that Can Do has won can Fed Labor go hard on difference of Qld safety compared to everywhere else? Making clear to average voter that it was a state problem not a federal labor one?

  45. mari

    [You are so right one of the people I am visiting isn’t too far from there, and he hates Conservatives over their (Tories so libs here) ]
    Perhaps PB could take up a collection so if you drop in to see them you can bribe the choir master to insert Hallelujah into their program 😆

  46. There’s no way back from the perception of pink batts and BER. Rudd said sorry for Pink Batts and Gillard said government had lost its way. Facts don’t help overcome embedded perception.

    Just keep delivering solid policy. Libs will have enough internal problems of their own which polls do not solve. The better polling gets for Abbott, the more the traditional Liberals will fear his power will be unshakable after election.

    Many of the old style Libs have been thinking they can win with Tony, then restrain him afterwards, back away from tax on business, direct action etc and go back to more traditional Liberal policies. Won’t happen if he wins a massive victory, so they have to take him down before poll.

    Might be counter-intuitive, but Abbott could actually become a victim of his own success as a big poll buffer might convince Hockey/Turnbull they can make change and still win comofortably.

  47. Ctar

    I saw the headline and posted straight away. Did not read article. I guess SMH must not have learnt the Orson Wells lesson about sending out information.
    It seems even messing about with warnings concerning safety do not matter anymore.

  48. From the Liberal Party website. Gee, I hope they are right.

    20/04/12
    The Gillard Government is set to waste millions more of taxpayers’ dollars on a ‘phase 2’ carbon tax advertising campaign assault on the very same taxpayers, Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for the Environment Simon Birmingham said today

    The Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency has revealed – in response to a question asked by Senator Birmingham through Senate Estimates – the existence of a report identified as:
    “Australia’s Clean Energy Future: Creative refinement Phase 2, February 2012”

    The report is among 19 prepared by Hall and Partners/Open Mind Pty Ltd as part of a $1.2 million contract to provide market research on the Government’s carbon tax advertising, which has already cost more than $32 million to date.

  50. Puff,

    The Gillard Government is set to waste millions more of taxpayers’ dollars on a ‘phase 2’ carbon tax advertising campaign

    B r i n g – i t – o n !

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