Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.

Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.

I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:

• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.

The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.

• Bob Brown’s announcement he will exit parliament at the end of June creates a plum parliamentary vacancy for the robust Tasmanian Greens. Speculation first fell upon the party’s current leader in state parliament, Nick McKim, who if interested could have followed the path from state leadership to the Senate previously trodden by Bob Brown and Christine Milne. He immediately ruled himself out though, which has left Bernard Keane of Crikey, Sid Maher of The Australian and Gemma Daley of the Financial Review identifying Peter Whish-Wilson as the front-runner. Maher’s report describes Whish-Wilson as a “wine-growing, surf-riding economist”, while Daley offers that he “worked in equity capital markets for Merrill Lynch in New York and Melbourne and for Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, Melbourne and Sydney”, before moving to Tasmania in 2004 and making a name for himself as the operator of Three Wishes Winery and a Gunns pulp mill opponent. Daley reports former state leader Peg Putt is “understood to have ruled herself out”, as has former Greenpeace International chief executive Paul Gilding. An ABC report also mentions Hobart deputy lord mayor Helen Burnet as a possible starter, while Sid Maher offers “Wilderness Society campaigner Geoff Law and Geoff Couser, candidate in the federal seat of Denison”.

• A fiercely contested battle over the order of the Victorian Liberal Senate ticket has ended with Scott Ryan taking second place at the expense of Helen Kroger, who is demoted to third, with Mitch Fifield as expected secure in first. Fifield won on the first round with 251 votes to 92 for Ryan and 71 for Kroger, before Ryan achieved a surprisingly strong 276 to 139 victory over Kroger on the second round. VexNews offers a revealing account from a no doubt interested party who says Ryan took advantage of new preselection rules introduced under the “Kemp reforms” to empower the party membership. These provide for one third of the vote to be determined by the members, but the system allocates six delegates to each federal division – rather an odd way of going about it, given that Liberal members appear to number only in the dozens across northern and western Melbourne. Ryan, it is said, has assiduously cultivated support in these “rotten boroughs” to turn the tables on the Kroger camp, which has its power base at higher levels of the party organisation.

Nick Butterly of The West Australian reports some WA Liberals are “frustrated at the calibre of candidates coming forward” to fill its looming federal parliamentary vacancies: retiring Judi Moylan and Mal Washer in Pearce and Moore, and now, sadly, Senator Judith Adams, who succumbed to cancer on March 31. A further addition to the list is Senator Alan Eggleston, who has announced he will not seek re-election next year. The current form guide is evaluated as follows:

Among the most promising candidates being considered for either a Senate or Lower House spot are State Liberal Party treasurer Dean Smith and aerobatic pilot Drew Searle. Wanneroo councillor Ian Goodenough is so far the only declared candidate for Dr Washer’s seat, while Hyden farmer Jane Mouritz and former Liberal staffer Alex Butterworth are also being touted in some corners as options for Senate spots. One Liberal said yesterday they would push for retiring WA Mines Minister Norman Moore to sit in the Senate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,913 comments on “Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. BW noted that the people commenting on Aged Care are baby boomers who are helping their parents through the Aged Care system which won’t be able to survive in its current format because of the big population bulge coming. Agree

    Besides the population bulge

    I also note that baby boomers don’t have as secure retirement savings as their parents who worked in the one job for 40+ years and those that divorced halved their wealth.

    So the reality is that the current system was becoming unaffordable for the elderly, the nursing home operators and the acute hospital network which can’t afford to accommodate frail elderly whilst they obtain a nursing home bed.

  2. SK

    My thoughts are with you none of this stuff is easy but you will get there with help and advice.

    davidwh

    Your posts on this issue have been a pleasure to read. You give me the impression of being a very sensitive and caring soul.

  3. my say

    You seem to make all your judgements based on Tasmanian religious institutions.
    Try googling nursing homes in the rest of Oz.

  4. my say dad went into a RSL home and they were excellent.

    I had to keep in contact with them to ensure dad didn’t get lost in the paperwork and eventually his application made it to the top of the list. Once he was accepted I couldn’t fault their care and the way they kept all the family involved.

  5. Tony Abbott’s strategy of responding to every issue in whichever way gets support from the Telegraph and Herald Sun is starting to unravel.

    Other elements of the media have been pretty savage on the coalition this week. Abbott’s media strategy is that if he talks about people being worse off the Tele and the Hun will do the heavy lifting by seeking out the few who will be hit. We have seen that with the carbon price compensation, Medicare levy means testing etc.

    The problem is the tabloids are only interested in provoking outrage. They don’t sell many papers anymore, so they need to attract people to web pages so they can sell advertising.

    Unfortunately for Tony click-bait does not equal coherent policy.

    The interesting thing this week is not the MSM actually calling the Libs on these contradictions; it is the very deliberate positioning from potential leadership rivals.

    The leak of Joyce’s double the baby bonus plan focussed attention on Tony’s non-Liberal approach to social engineering. Coincidentally (sarcasm) Robb, then Hockey and finally Turnbull all wade in.

    Hockey’s London speech outlines the foundations of an economic policy that is diametrically opposed to Abbott’s. Turnbull even dares to criticise the Howard/Costello legacy, which Abbott used to underpin his attacks on the government’s financial management. Both men’s comments can be interpreted in no other way than as a clear attack on Abbott’s direction.

    Hockey has also put himself in a position where he cannot retain credibility (if he has any) if he votes against the next government legislation which includes means testing. You have to wonder if he isn’t deliberately creating an issue where he can resign from the front bench on principal ahead of a leadership challenge.

    As the consistently excellent Gordon Graham has pointed out for some time on Twitter, Abbott’s position on economic issues is far from Liberal. Hockey has now forced his leader to tie himself even tighter to a policy of continuation and even extension of middle class welfare. Add in the pick winners Direct Action policy and tax hits for business for good measure.

    Hockey meanwhile declares a very clear alternative to his colleagues.

    However, the polls show a clear victory is on the cards so why on earth would the Liberals dump the man who has got them to that position? Two reasons:

    1 There is a nagging doubt Tony can get them over the line. On PB every single Liberal says they don’t like the leader. They just like Gillard less. If that obviously meaningless sample is showing up in proper private polling then some Liberals will be getting restless.

    (If Newspoll or Essential has an ounce of self-respect they should be asking about preferred leader for the Libs next time around, just as they have done repeatedly on the Labor leadership. The results will be interesting.)

    2 Some senior party figures may well be wondering what will happen if the Liberals do win the next election with Abbott leading them to victory on this platform. It will send the Liberal Party off in an economic direction that is vastly different from the basic tenets of the party. An Abbott led win means things like extensive middle class welfare, increased taxes on business and a non-market approach under Direct Action, These are absolutely fundamental departures from Liberal values.

    Having set honesty as his key quality, Abbott will not be able to renege on his promises, whatever the likes of Rommel like to claim. He will be bullet proof for a year or so after winning an election, with enough MPs owing him their jobs to resist any efforts by old style Libs to pull him back into line. By the time they could move against him the Liberal Party’s old values would be consumed.

    Those who fear a wholesale abandonment of traditional Liberal philosophy is underway need to act before Abbott wins an election, not after.

    Two things now loom as game-breakers when taken collectively:

    A) The HSU report. If it leaves Thomson basically in the clear and at the same time criticises Kathy Jackson, who Abbott has very publicly backed, then at worst for the government the issues is neutralised. At best Abbott, Brandis and Abetz are damaged by their stance. However, if Thomson is found to have acted illegally it mortally wounds Julia Gillard.

    B) The RBA decision on interest rates. It looks to me that the PM’s camp decided the Coalition link between government spending and interest rates was biting with voters, if not with literate economists. They have therefore taken a risky approach by betting the game on a rate cut. If the cut comes Julia Gillard gets the credit and another attack from the opposition is blunted. If the cut doesn’t come the PM is going to be damaged.

    There might be a government bounce in next set of polls. If the aged care reforms and the Coalition’s disarray and division hit home and the gap closes significantly then Abbott come sunder very close scrutiny. If he doesn’t then I think the second scenario about his leadership will come to a head – a battle for the future direction of the Liberals.

    Of course all of this makes the assumption that the Labor Party does not retrieve the shotgun from the shed and shoot itself in the foot. An all too frequent occurrence.

  6. tricot

    thanks for the thought

    yes i thought my little comment would be cryptic but it refers to forrest’s comments in linked herald article. i seem to be in an odd minority here and elsewhere in thinking some optimistic transformation will be possible, and resisting the hint of noble defeat of Labor that has crept onto PB.

    The last par below is also interesting.

    “In a statement yesterday, Mr Forrest went further, saying that despite the advanced nature of the negotiations, Ms Gillard and Mr Swan cut a separate deal behind the scenes with one minerals company, understood to be BHP Billiton.

    He implied that in return for the dumping of Mr Rudd, the minerals industry would accept the reworked tax and drop its advertising campaign which was severely damaging the government.

    ”The Robin Hood-in-reverse proposal was used to remove a democratically elected prime minister from office by the promise of stopping the advertising campaign,” Mr Forrest alleged.

    ”They later announced it to the Australian people as a [post-coup] breakthrough.

    ”In my opinion, the furtherance of their own careers as opposed to the furtherance of the economic and standard-of-living interest of the Australian people was their primary motivation.”

    Ms Gillard and Mr Swan have vehemently rejected Mr Forrest’s claims as ”a conspiracy theory” and ”rehashing of old nonsense”.

    Mr Forrest contends the big miners renegotiated the tax to allow them to deduct from their liability the value of their projects. This would enable them to pay next to no mining tax while the burden would fall on the smaller companies.

    In recent weeks, the opposition has claimed BHP and others have told it in private they would not be paying any mining tax for several years at least.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-cut-a-deal-on-rudd-says-forrest-20120419-1xa54.html#ixzz1sYAQQdm6

  7. MTBW on another blog some years back the lefties referred to me as the Liberal with a soul. Basically I think I am a caring person. I don’t know how anyone can go through the types of struggles mum did mainly and the rest of us did to a lessor extent and not end up sensitive to the struggles and angry.

  8. Space Kidette,
    Have the conversation with your oldies and write down what they want. Like my mother before me, I’ve been “educating” my kids for the last twenty years to face up to the time when I will fall off the perch and came to the realisation in recent years that they didn’t really want to be serious about it. So, I did the unthinkable thing and (a) donated my body to science, and (b) wrote down my list of do’s and don’ts in the event that I am incapacitated or whatever.

    (a) required the family sign the consent forms and I insisted they also sign my own consent form attached to my (b) list.

  9. davidwh

    I not only think but I am certain that you have a soul and a good one.

    Being a Liberal is fine with me differences of opinion are what makes the world go round. We all learn from each other. None of us is all knowing. You are a good man!

  10. I haven’t had a chance to read the new Aged Care policy but reports on radio give it a very positive glow and it all sounds good and logical so let’s hope it has some positive impact. I also hope that it’s been thoroughly bench-tested and stands up to scrutiny because it is an incredibly complicated area as I have been finding out lately on a steep learning curve (for mum not for me!). There are going to be a lot of commentators looking for the flaws or the special well-paid adviser on the project who turns out to be the brother-in-law of someone or other.

    And btw deblonay – do us all a favour and put a sock in it. There is still Cuba and North Korea if you really miss the communist utopia. Or if all else fails, vote Greens – the next best thing.

  11. deblonay

    [Sarkosi has angered many by his subservience to the US Empire ]
    From what I read his recent decision to broadcast live a talk he had with Obama went down like a lead balloon. Comments like “Demeaning to the French nation” were bandied about.

  12. Lizzie this is where i live,
    I am also making judgements on experience
    I have found no problems with accounting.

    My observation is, its people here thst have problems realising religious homes hospitals
    Are run by
    Qualified people ordinary people just like you, me , any one else.
    It was the comment on the end of the piece.

    My aunt is dying of bone cancer,from her breat cancer, she is jehovah witness, but i love her more than u could imagine she is the second last link, to dad,
    She allways dislimed catholics, becauce of her teaching,
    I arrived yesterday as a brochure did, guesx wherd it was from tbe only catholic funeral house in tge city.
    And guess where she ask me to make sure she dies, if not at home, in one of those livley catholic
    Hospitals. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  13. roaldan1000

    Great analysis of the current state of play. I especially concur with your last sentence. The ALP have a good habit of shooting themselves in the foot. Hopefully they can continue to remain focussed and on the same page!!

  14. Thanks GG and Cuppa

    It must be a tough slog for some in the conservatives with Abbott – just having to grit their teeth and hope for the best.

    Abbott himself described Wilson Tuckey as the Mad Uncle that exists in every family when he was doing his block.

    Not quite sure how he would be described by the more thoughtful tories?

    Some describe him as a Man Child, others that he is adolescent.

    I liken the Lib’s attitude towards Abbott in much the same way as the Junkers and German Military caste did towards Hitler. Useful for getting them into power (or restoring Old German as it was then). Trouble was Hitler had his own ideas just as, I am sure, Abbott does for the Liberal party – and this is to shift it ever more to the right.

    The Liberals have a tough decision to make.

    Continue to risk Abbott and hope for the best, or if the polls do start to tighten, maybe carry out a little house cleaning.

    All the attention has been on the progressive side of politics for months but the hard heads in the conservatives know their lead in the polls is weak.

    While 56% looks pretty good, and Queensland and NSW were solidy losses for Labor – mainly due to the sclerotic nature of those governments at the time, these events mask a genuine concern about the man and his poor leadership.

    Fortunately for the conservatives the government has a full scale job just keeping in power. Though, as more and more successful pieces of policy are cemented into place, the negative mantras will wear thin.

    I am prepared to accept that if the conservatives win the next election after three years of nothing but negativity then I will have to seriously rethink all I believe about positive messages trumping the negative.

  15. Mtbw
    Well thats what i expected from you,.
    Its so predictable, i think you spy on every comment i make and make similar remarks.
    I actualy never usually read yours and i rwalky dont know what luzzie i getting at i dont live on the mainland thank the lord,
    And you are a very unchritian perdon, mtbw
    But any way god bless you,
    🙂

  16. [ame to the realisation in recent years that they didn’t really want to be serious about it. So, I did the unthinkable thing and (a) donated my body to science, and (b) wrote down my list of do’s and don’ts in the event that I am incapacitated or whatever.]

    SK – same thing here as Janice. Kids always make fun of it and say ‘no worries – we’ll just put you in wheel chairs and roll you off the clifftop’ so the discussion ends up in kids joking and laughing about us getting old. They think we are going to go on forever even tho they are getting older themselves. It’s much easier to write it all down.

    OH had to have Dr sign a form for the RTA for him to continue driving. It’s compulsory at 75 but he was a bit put out about it. Doc asked if had any signs of dementia but like a good wife I didn’t say that he has 🙂 Is forgetting names a sign of dementia by any chance? if so we are both on the road to ruin and we won’t have a clue what the kids do with us.

  17. SK a friend had to find a nursing home for her mother with dementia. The hospital social worker told her that she would take her preferences into account when finding mum a place. The place was found on the other side of town an hour away and was grotty. Daughter discovered that the social worker hadn’t contacted her preferred nursing home and there had been a place.

    Moral don’t assume that the social worker has your best interests at heart, if you have a preference contact them directly.

  18. my say

    I’m sorry, I can’t understand your messages properly.
    All I meant was that people “here”, that is, on this blog, have had a variety of experiences with nursing homes and accommodation elderly and they are not all good experiemces. This does not mean that anyone is slinging off at the religious.
    You seem to think that all the homes are run by religious and I was pointing out that they’re not.
    You are speaking from your own experience, fair enough, and others from theirs.

  19. BH forgetting names isn’t a sign of dementia. What you have to look for is signs the person is confused about doing normal things like whether to use a knife or fork to cut their food, putting clothers on inside out, where the toilet is located which ball to hit while playing snooker etc. Initially they will just be very subtle changes which get slowly worse as things progress. It’s actually easy to diagnose by a specialist.

  20. davidwh

    They also develop coping mechanisms.
    Took me a while to learn the phrases my father used when he didn’t understand or hear a question. Such as “probably” for a sort of universal answer.

  21. my say

    quality care for all, quality education for all
    universal is the constitutional term. universal health and education.
    not private/public, not divided on religious grounds, not tiered

    sounds fairly christian to me. if its going to religious needs to be universal
    not good catholic school up the road at expense of public

  22. BH

    I have been forgetting names since I was kneehigh to a grasshopper. Unless I see names written down I rarely remember them. Just an idiosyncracy, I guess.

  23. my say dad went into a RSL home and they were excellent. David said.

    Thats heartening to hear david, i think problems are only ever caused by lack of staff numbers.
    That was why i went most days at meal time, i was not the onl one of course many did
    Thats the wonderful thing about hobart the population is nearly 300th with outer areas included
    But everything is only 20 min away in a radius, makes life easier
    Calvary hospital is 20 min fro me an outer acreage suberb, tbe nursing homes 15 min,

  24. lizzie dad made out his hearing was getting worse when in fact he could hear reasonably well when he wanted to. Yes they do get very clevor with ways they learn to cope.

    Times of out of character agression was also a symptom although this was later in the development.

  25. Its also interesting about rsl homes, is that becauce they are big clubs, very small here, no
    Entertainment areas only very basic, and i dont think thry have poker machines.

  26. my say the RSL homes are run separately to the clubs but I am not sure if they are related in some way. There are a number of the RSL homes in QLD although they are just as difficult to get into as any of the others and actually don’t give priority of returned service people.

    Out of all the places we found respite for dad the RSL people were the most inclusive. Family had the codes and could come and go as often as they wanted and share meals at any time. They allowed me to take dad for rides whenever I wanted etc.

  27. David and poroti – I should have put the smiling face after the question because I was joking about forgetting names. We usually remember after awhile but the Dr laughed and said ‘when he puts his shoes in the fridge you can start to worry’. So far so good!!

    Unfortunately our neighbour is going through it at the moment and it is so hard on his wife. All we can do is babysit when his wife needs to go shopping, etc but the realisation of ‘there but for the grace ….go I’ is foremost in our aging minds.

    I am so pleased that JG and Labor have worked on this plan with the Alliance and I appreciate the Alliance’s comments that they are thrilled with the amount of money in light of the difficult times at the moment.

  28. BK

    How do you like this limerick?

    [SpudBenBean Her name was Ms Mirabella She was hot for any old fella And if he had money Then she’d be his honey Though she looked like a Mozzarella]

  29. [I linked article this morning from fairfax journo Kate McClymont re Thomson.

    Turns out she was wrong]

    You can still see the original article prominently on the SMH site though. Cause really, who cares about ‘accuracy’?

  30. CTar1

    I find it very interesting that Abbott is risking being sued himself for continually taking on face value reports by the msm.

  31. Here are more

    [SpudBenBean His name was Mr G Hunt Now the planet will bear the brunt In his thesis he wrote That the climate was broke But now he denies it, the runt]

    [SpudBenBean His name is Barnaby Joyce He speaks in a garbled voice His face is quite ruddy And he looks very cruddy He’s certainly not MY choice]

  32. Victoria

    I linked article this morning from fairfax journo Kate McClymont re Thomson.

    Turns out she was wrong

    I wonder whether she’ll apologise 😕 She might also be wary of her sources or at least check that what she’s being fed is correct.

  33. janice2

    Yes I do wonder who is feeding the info to this journo. I have long suspected there is more to this saga than meets the eye

  34. [Q, it’s a legal document which homes, hospitals, hospices must obey, even those run by members of religious orders, and there are penalties for not doing do (though I’ll believe that re religious folk after I see pigs flying).
    ]
    comment above
    lizzie this is the comment i am reffering to it adds nothing to the discussion i as rather taken aback by this remark from an educated person.

    its quite strange as i said religious organizations are not immune from the the world of accountaning and boards and accountability of boards. we operate under the same syystem its called the law of the land.
    Its about time people here did a bid of educating themselves. and not make statements like that.
    and as for geofs statement its been like this{ except in the United states the land of the free and all things amazing }

    but not in australia, so i cannot see it changing if you want to make it an election issue good luck to you .

    this amount of people may not agree with you, honestly you lot are enough to turn a devoted labor voter to the other side,
    majority Christian but pluralistic society with no established religion. In 2008 there were approximately 5.7 million Australian Catholics (5,704,000; 27.56% of the population). Catholicism arrived in Australia

    thats a lot of votes to lose even for you bk

  35. victoria @ 3836

    This morning he was doing his ‘the people of Australia are entitled to know’ about these payments.

    Of course this is a matter between the Union Executive (current and previous) and the members – it is the members monies that have spent. Not taxpayers money.

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