Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.

Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.

I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:

• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.

The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.

• Bob Brown’s announcement he will exit parliament at the end of June creates a plum parliamentary vacancy for the robust Tasmanian Greens. Speculation first fell upon the party’s current leader in state parliament, Nick McKim, who if interested could have followed the path from state leadership to the Senate previously trodden by Bob Brown and Christine Milne. He immediately ruled himself out though, which has left Bernard Keane of Crikey, Sid Maher of The Australian and Gemma Daley of the Financial Review identifying Peter Whish-Wilson as the front-runner. Maher’s report describes Whish-Wilson as a “wine-growing, surf-riding economist”, while Daley offers that he “worked in equity capital markets for Merrill Lynch in New York and Melbourne and for Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, Melbourne and Sydney”, before moving to Tasmania in 2004 and making a name for himself as the operator of Three Wishes Winery and a Gunns pulp mill opponent. Daley reports former state leader Peg Putt is “understood to have ruled herself out”, as has former Greenpeace International chief executive Paul Gilding. An ABC report also mentions Hobart deputy lord mayor Helen Burnet as a possible starter, while Sid Maher offers “Wilderness Society campaigner Geoff Law and Geoff Couser, candidate in the federal seat of Denison”.

• A fiercely contested battle over the order of the Victorian Liberal Senate ticket has ended with Scott Ryan taking second place at the expense of Helen Kroger, who is demoted to third, with Mitch Fifield as expected secure in first. Fifield won on the first round with 251 votes to 92 for Ryan and 71 for Kroger, before Ryan achieved a surprisingly strong 276 to 139 victory over Kroger on the second round. VexNews offers a revealing account from a no doubt interested party who says Ryan took advantage of new preselection rules introduced under the “Kemp reforms” to empower the party membership. These provide for one third of the vote to be determined by the members, but the system allocates six delegates to each federal division – rather an odd way of going about it, given that Liberal members appear to number only in the dozens across northern and western Melbourne. Ryan, it is said, has assiduously cultivated support in these “rotten boroughs” to turn the tables on the Kroger camp, which has its power base at higher levels of the party organisation.

• Nick Butterly of The West Australian reports some WA Liberals are “frustrated at the calibre of candidates coming forward” to fill its looming federal parliamentary vacancies: retiring Judi Moylan and Mal Washer in Pearce and Moore, and now, sadly, Senator Judith Adams, who succumbed to cancer on March 31. A further addition to the list is Senator Alan Eggleston, who has announced he will not seek re-election next year. The current form guide is evaluated as follows:

Among the most promising candidates being considered for either a Senate or Lower House spot are State Liberal Party treasurer Dean Smith and aerobatic pilot Drew Searle. Wanneroo councillor Ian Goodenough is so far the only declared candidate for Dr Washer’s seat, while Hyden farmer Jane Mouritz and former Liberal staffer Alex Butterworth are also being touted in some corners as options for Senate spots. One Liberal said yesterday they would push for retiring WA Mines Minister Norman Moore to sit in the Senate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,913 comments on “Newspoll and Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. Tricot

    Telstra is a private company. Just like Optus, or iinet, or BHP or Patrick’s Stevedore’s was. Typical right wing tactics.

  5. Thanks BK

    Take out 5 minutes to do this survey for the parliamentary inquiry into proposed same sex marriage legislation.
    http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=spla/bill%20marriage/index.htm

    My reason for supporting the legislation:

    [In a democracy, esp one which was an original signatory to UN Four Freedoms charter (inc freedom of belief) no person or group should have the right to force any other person or group to act in accordance with another person’s or group’s belief system. People’s decisions over personal lifestyle choices (inc marriage) should, in a democracy, esp one which committed to Freedom of Belief, be theirs alone. I’m 70yo, and not gay; but I’ll do everything I can to ensure all Australians have the right to just and equitable treatment re marriage.]

    Even if I didn’t approve of Gay marriage, I’d support the legislation on the grounds of the UN Charter (which we not only signed, but helped draft) & the principles of democracy – that all men & women are equal before the law, with equal rights and equal responsibilities. Currently, we are in breach of both!

  6. [So I wait patiently in the hope it’s a belated program to genuinly do something real about the aged-care problems. If it is Abbott better give it bi-partisan support.]

    The old and easily-manipulated being a big support bloc of the conservatives, Abbott is likely to spin them into a state of anxiety about something that will actually be of benefit to them. There are few who spin and raise false fear as unconscionably as Abbott and his chorus of media lickers.

  7. If none of the reforms the Government is bringing in translate at the polls, then at least the reforms will have still been put in place. We all know it takes a Labor Government to actually do things – but they can’t win every election.

  8. Burgey
    [Watch Australia’s aged demographic still refuse to vote Labor, despite ths package and despite pension increases]
    It’s the kids of the elderly that will probably be most appreciative. The good ones who do alot of the caring and the bad ones concerned about losing too much of the inheritance.

  10. [Karen Middleton ‏ @KarenMMiddleton

    Min Butler says separate process underway to help young people now relying on nursing home care.]

  13. Who cares if Abbott offers his special breed of bi-partisanship. (where he thinks about it for a while before saying NO, rather than just saying NO straight away)

    The :monkey: is irrelevant. If Oakie, Windsor and the Greens are on side then it becomes law and nothing the screeching baboons say or do will make a lick of difference.

    17 more months of his wailing at his impotence. It won’t be pretty, but if the government just gets on with getting the job done and the Libs keep letting slip peaks into the utter policy vacuum that exists at their heart then I’m still very confident the :monkey:’s wailing at his impotence will continue indefinitely, but it will only be his wife and family that will have to listen to it.

  14. [Watch Australia’s aged demographic still refuse to vote Labor, despite ths package and despite pension increases.]

    That’s what I think too.

  15. DWH

    [Australia badly needs to tackle aged-care which is a disgrace however before we get too excited about…]

    Your lot spent 11 years distorting the Aged Care support with un-means tested middle and upper class welfare. Same for super.

    Having screwed those who most needed it for 11 years you are up to the whole, ‘Hey wait!’ routine.

    Some things never, ever change. It is like Mr Hockey screaming about the end of the Age of Entitlements. Who brought it in? Mr Hockey and his mates did. They squandered a mining boom on it.

    Who is going to have to fix up the Coalition mess? Labor is. Who is going to get us out of the Coalition’s two months of war in Afhanistan after the Coalition adopted idiotic war strategy in Afghanistan? Labor is. Whos is going to doing something about AGW when the Coalition spent 11 years doing nothing at all about except to delay international action? Labor is.

    The economic wackeloons over at team moribund should just hunker down and learn a thing or do.

    BTW, if all you can do is say, “Hey, wait!’ you are on the right team.

  16. Not sure about that Burgey though I haven’t heard the details of the policy yet I have had other things to do.

    I have an 89 year old mother and a family friend who will be 95 in July. They both hate the idea of having to move out of their home. As both of them have a Vet Affairs Gold Card they received lots of help already. My Mum shares her home with my sister and her daughter but the friend whom we call Aunt lives alone.

    Moving out of your home is a big deal to them and if further services being made available to them in their home they will be more than pleased I think. My Mum is the daughter of a former Federal Labor MP and not sure what my Aunt votes but any further help would be appreciated by her I am sure.

  24. Just struck me that the beneficial target of government policies is not necessarily the same as the political target.
    In the case of the aged care reforms, they will obviously benefit the aged people but the political effect of this may be to relieve the families of of the aged people of the worry and possibly financial burden of arranging for the care of the aged. So the effect on votes will bw in those families rather than the old people.
    Similarly with PPL – the parents involved will benefit directly but may perhaps be grumpy they haven’t got the Abbott rolled gold version. On the other hand, potential carers for the children, such as grandparents, may be relieved that they aren’t going to be subject to caring for very young children.
    I wonder if the government when crafting these packages pays attention to this sort of thing – they should really be aiming to produce genuine improvements but also to get the maximum political benefit from it.

  26. [Stephen Mayne ‏
    I smell a budget surplus ruse. Govt has massively cranked up aged care claim payments and now flags crackdown and clawbacks in 2012-13 yr.]

    Is this the sort of thing davidWH is referring to? Don’t understand the ruse, myself.

  28. Not sure if posted yet

    [http://www.smh.com.au/business/run-joe-run-20120420-1xau4.html

    Is Joe Hockey starting his run for the Liberal Party leadership and, therefore, the Lodge?]

  30. Mark Butler is as on top of his portfolio as Stephen Conroy is of his.

    And the PM is very happy to let him field questions.

  31. [Joe Hockey starting his run for the Liberal Party leadership]

    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha and Turncoat is running for the Labor Leadership. I will agree with Team Labor in that Joe is a Joke.

  33. Yes but famlies re sons and daughters, in my age group and 50 something want a smooth transition
    Re older care and espe ially their parents home.

    From observing my friends who have eldrrly parents, and the 50 sonethings still work, its a nightmare
    I have a friend that has lost all her long service
    Leave and holidays, tring to care for her parents in their home, they are in their middle 80 s
    Refuse to goto a home, yet cannot even cook for t hemselves a meal ‘ the mums heart is so bad, the drs say nothing can be done, he has a touch of demintia and hard to handle.
    Dont underestimate the 50.s plus being glad to see more home care.
    I worry about my friend, she may go first, and i do note in familes, there is always one who sacrifices more.

  36. I have not had a chance to look at the new Aged Care package, but I will bet London-to-a-brick-on, that the conservative media and the tories will do the following – either in sequence or one followed by the other:

    Firstly, there will be bare bones reporting of the actual package.

    Secondly, the package will be raked over to find out of say – 100 cases, 2-3 whereby some poor soul may be doing it tougher. Probably some property millionaire who feels a sense of entitlement slipping away.

    Thirdly, there will be a moan about how “hard working, taxing paying oldies” now have to sacrifice, in their dotage, all that they have worked for over the years. Ditto above for the loss of entitlement.

    Fourthly, we will hear/see about some old Digger who “wondered why he went to fight for this wonderful country”. Ditto above for loss of entitlement.

    Fifthly, the initiative will be then seen as a “cost failure” and hence another “Labor bungle”.

    Finally, as a Liberal party response, we will hear Abbott tell the oldies that if and when he gets into power, he will legislate to abolish old age.

  37. Sk
    I have not looked closely but I wish we had this available. Fighting for increased services to match increasing frailty was the big problem.

  39. r

    [I will agree with Team Labor in that Joe is a Joke.]

    So? What’s your point? Mr Abbott is a joke too, only a bad joke. IMHO, Mr Hockey is infinitely to be preferred over Mr Abbott because Mr Hockey is not a borderline narcissist/sociopath.

  41. Tricot @ 3599

    [ Liberal party mouthpiece, Paul Murray on 6PR Perth – local Red Neck station, quoting Telstra’s chief wtte that if and when the Liberals get in and Telstra has to renegotiate the with NBN corporation, with a combination of wireless and other changes, Telstra will be able to deliver faster speeds more cheaply. ]

    Yes Fran Kelly made the same false claim. What Telstra is saying is that it will be (obviously) quicker to build fibre to the node than fibre to the home NOT that the data speeds will be as fast as the full NBN.

    Telstra of course would love to keep control of that last section into everyones’ home so they can continue to screw the rest of the industry and the public.

  42. Burgey

    [Watch Australia’s aged demographic still refuse to vote Labor, despite ths package and despite pension increases.]

    That will no doubt be true in the polls for some time, but Abbott has already made it clear that the pension increases brought in as carbon pricing compensation will go. These are worth billions and are designed to over-compensate the pensioners.

    Most pensioners wouldn’t have a clue about it yet, and frankly that’s fine. It only needs to bite in the last month of the campaign. I’d much rather see that one brought out and given maximum air time when the minds are concentrated on the vote.

    Good luck to anyone trying to get elected on a platform of taking money off pensioners. All the talk about the prices dropping and compensation not being needed etc faces all the problems the Government now faces in response to Abbott’s simplistic nonsense. It’s a complicated message that is easy to drown out with – ‘he’s going to reduce your pension by $340 a year.’

  45. lizzie no I wasn’t referring to swapping expenditure between fiscal years to artifically achieve an outcome in a particular year. I am basically saying I support the PM if this is real reform which will deal with the problems in aged-care which have been for far too long ignored. However if this is more about the big announcement and is little more than re-badging what we already have then the PM deserves contempt. I hope it’s the former however we wont know until we see the “extra” funds in the budgets and the policy details.

    I seldom get exited about policy announcements anymore having been disappointed too often.

  46. See – without even reading Rummel prior to my 3636 – he/she has essentially confirmed what I have said.

    And the conservatives wonder why we heap them with cynicism.

  47. my say
    [From observing my friends who have eldrrly parents, and the 50 sonethings still work, its a nightmare]
    Which is why I say my say that the reforms will be a real vote winner not with the elderly but with their sons and daughters. As you have seen it can be awfully stressful for them to juggle the situation .Not to mention family tensions that arise over who is doing enough/not enough to help their elderly relatives.

  48. my say

    As you rightly point out, the transitions from independence to dependence are often very difficult both for the elderly and for those who hold themselves responsible for the elederly. Having seen the process many times I believe it is very common for elderly people to wait until it is too late before making a move. This is understandable. People leave their freedom of movement, freedom to things when they want and also lose access to material stuff that is emotionally important to them. So, the tendency to resist change is understandable. But it causes problems all around.

    But this won’t change. There is going to be more and more of it.

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