GhostWhoVotes reports Newspoll has come in at 56-44 to the Coalition, down from 57-43 last time, which exactly matches Essential Research’s progress over the last week. In Newspoll’s case, the picture on the primary vote is very much the same as a fortnight ago, with Labor, the Coalition and the Greens all up a point at the expense of “others”, to 29%, 48% and 12%. Personal ratings offer multiple stings in the tail for Julia Gillard. Where last time she was up three points on approval and down four on disapproval, those results have exactly reversed, putting her back at 28% approval and 62% disapproval. Tony Abbott has seized the lead as preferred prime minister, gaining four to 41% with Gillard down one to 39%, and his approval rating is up three to 35% with disapproval down four to 54%. GhostWhoVotes also relates that Gillard’s “trustworthiness” rating is down from 61% to 44% since the 2010 election, with Abbott’s down from 58% to 54%. Presumably this portends a battery of attitudinal results concerning the two leaders.
Essential Research had the primary votes at 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured were its monthly personal ratings, which had Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network was up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There was also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I now offer a Senate-tacular review of recent happenings relating to the upper chamber, where it’s all happening at the moment:
• There has been talk lately about the potential make-up of the Senate if the Coalition wins next year’s election in a landslide, which might upset long-held assumptions about the political calculus under an Abbott government. Half-Senate elections usually result in each state’s six seats splitting three left and three right, and the territories’ two seats invariably go one Labor and one Coalition. However, four and two results have not been unknown, usually involving Labor winning three and the Coalition two with the last seat going to the Greens or the Democrats. The only four-right, two-left results were when John Howard gained control of the Senate at the 2004 election, in Queensland (four Coalition and two Labor) and Victoria (three Coalition, two Labor, one Family First). There is also the occasional unclassifiable like Nick Xenophon, who is up for re-election in South Australia next year and presumably likely to win, and perhaps even Julian Assange, of whose aspirations we have heard nothing further.
The difficulty for the Coalition is that a four-left, two-right result in Tasmania at the 2010 election (three Labor, two Liberal and one Greens) will carry over to the next parliament. However, on the basis of Newspoll’s recent state breakdowns it is easy to envision this being counterbalanced by a four-right, two-left result in Queensland, either through a repeat of 2004 or, perhaps, a Katter’s Australian Party Senator joining three from the LNP. This would leave the left with 38 and the right with 37 (including the thus-far low-profile Victorian Senator John Madigan of the DLP, a carryover from 2010), plus Xenophon – still leaving the left with a blocking majority, even when Xenophon voted with the right. However, the Queensland election wipeout and a further dive in Labor’s federal poll ratings encourages contemplation of further four-right, two-left results in New South Wales and Western Australia. Assuming no cross-ideological preference deals such as that which produced Family First’s win in Victoria in 2004, a rough benchmark here is that the combined Labor and Greens vote would need to fall to about 40%. This compares with Labor-plus-Greens results in 2010 of 42.2% in Queensland, 43.7% in Western Australia and 47.2% in New South Wales. Any two such results would be enough to get the carbon tax repealed, given the likely support of Xenophon, and all three would leave a Coalition government similarly placed to its state counterpart in New South Wales, where Labor and the Greens can be overruled with the support of the Shooters Party and the Christian Democratic Party.
• Bob Brown’s announcement he will exit parliament at the end of June creates a plum parliamentary vacancy for the robust Tasmanian Greens. Speculation first fell upon the party’s current leader in state parliament, Nick McKim, who if interested could have followed the path from state leadership to the Senate previously trodden by Bob Brown and Christine Milne. He immediately ruled himself out though, which has left Bernard Keane of Crikey, Sid Maher of The Australian and Gemma Daley of the Financial Review identifying Peter Whish-Wilson as the front-runner. Maher’s report describes Whish-Wilson as a “wine-growing, surf-riding economist”, while Daley offers that he “worked in equity capital markets for Merrill Lynch in New York and Melbourne and for Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, Melbourne and Sydney”, before moving to Tasmania in 2004 and making a name for himself as the operator of Three Wishes Winery and a Gunns pulp mill opponent. Daley reports former state leader Peg Putt is “understood to have ruled herself out”, as has former Greenpeace International chief executive Paul Gilding. An ABC report also mentions Hobart deputy lord mayor Helen Burnet as a possible starter, while Sid Maher offers “Wilderness Society campaigner Geoff Law and Geoff Couser, candidate in the federal seat of Denison”.
• A fiercely contested battle over the order of the Victorian Liberal Senate ticket has ended with Scott Ryan taking second place at the expense of Helen Kroger, who is demoted to third, with Mitch Fifield as expected secure in first. Fifield won on the first round with 251 votes to 92 for Ryan and 71 for Kroger, before Ryan achieved a surprisingly strong 276 to 139 victory over Kroger on the second round. VexNews offers a revealing account from a no doubt interested party who says Ryan took advantage of new preselection rules introduced under the “Kemp reforms” to empower the party membership. These provide for one third of the vote to be determined by the members, but the system allocates six delegates to each federal division – rather an odd way of going about it, given that Liberal members appear to number only in the dozens across northern and western Melbourne. Ryan, it is said, has assiduously cultivated support in these “rotten boroughs” to turn the tables on the Kroger camp, which has its power base at higher levels of the party organisation.
• Nick Butterly of The West Australian reports some WA Liberals are “frustrated at the calibre of candidates coming forward” to fill its looming federal parliamentary vacancies: retiring Judi Moylan and Mal Washer in Pearce and Moore, and now, sadly, Senator Judith Adams, who succumbed to cancer on March 31. A further addition to the list is Senator Alan Eggleston, who has announced he will not seek re-election next year. The current form guide is evaluated as follows:
Among the most promising candidates being considered for either a Senate or Lower House spot are State Liberal Party treasurer Dean Smith and aerobatic pilot Drew Searle. Wanneroo councillor Ian Goodenough is so far the only declared candidate for Dr Washer’s seat, while Hyden farmer Jane Mouritz and former Liberal staffer Alex Butterworth are also being touted in some corners as options for Senate spots. One Liberal said yesterday they would push for retiring WA Mines Minister Norman Moore to sit in the Senate.
I think the PM has been doing a great job but I fear her acceptance of the term carbon tax in the Heather Ewart interview has rendered her unelectable.
The ‘liar’ tag has now been so strongly attached (and obviously reflected in focus groups) that Abbott can freely call her a liar and no-one in the MSM or in politics raises any objection. I suspect Abbott’s behaviour in this regard by a political leader is unprecedented.
mari
The usual suspects saying the same things each and every time.
I believe JG is doing a very good job managing her govt to date. But the msm and Abbott together with Labor’s own internal issues with the leadership, have not been kind to her. She is not popular, and is much less popular now than Abbott. The TPP and personal standing is very bad for Labor. There is no other way to look at it. The usual suspects should be pleased for Gillard to remain leader, as based on the polls, it will be a landslide victory to their side of politics.
victoria
The polls will go up. Otherwise the media has become the arbiter of whom is going to rule this country instead of governments. I do not believe the media has suddenly gained this power. Not in the internet age. Therefore as people see the reality in the second half of this year the polls will go up. Troops coming home early will help. That will see an increase in the primary vote for Labor.
As Boerwar points out winning in Afghanistan was never going to happen.
http://tinyurl.com/7qofrup (click google link)
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/rivals-jockey-for-bob-browns-seat/story-fn59niix-1226328207168
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/why-peter-costello-didnt-get-fund-job/story-fn59niix-1226328206983
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/ive-been-verballed-on-anz-andrew-robb/story-fn59niix-1226328207343
http://tinyurl.com/7reh9wg (click google link)
The new real Mr Abbot is making some slight inroads, I see. So reasonable. So focused on policy. No longer the narcissist/sociopath, if ever he seemed so.
Cured.
CO
I am not going to throw in the towel just yet. As bad as the polls are, there is still much to be done in the next six months for the electorate to have a change of heart.
I am still hopeful that it will be the Libs that will be stuck with Abbott and not know how to rectify that
Boerwar, the Government is unable to point to the warmongering party for the sake of those lost.
Lol @ boerwar 205
Honestly how people are falling for the Newspoll which is exclusively for the Australian is unbelievable
Leroy
i am ever so hopeful that the Nats and the Libs have a falling out. That would be delicious
poroti @130
I hope Abbott does come up with a cut and run, stay the course comment. That’ll put him at direct odds with over 2/3 of voters.
Staying the course is a definite vote loser.
j2
Yes, it is standard spin for warmongering cowards to hide behind the deeds of the soldiers. History is choc-a-bloc with that sort of stuff.
Meguire Bob
All the polls including Essential are very similiar. Not good for Labor or JG at present.
Boewar
I’m interested in whether you prefer your Anzacs soft or crunchy. Growing up, various members of the family made them regularly and all of us preferred them soft. (I also couldn’t help eating a lot of the mixture before cooking them.) I haven’t tried the commercial ones, but I suspect that they are crunchy, like Butternut Snaps.
MB
All the polls are hovering at around 46/54%. Ignoring the stats won’t help anyone.
triton
We too have war on the domestic ANZAC front. Some tacticians prefer the hard, tough approach. Others prefer the softly, softly stealth approach. Since I do a double batch, I cunningly do half and half. The first half I cook for longer at a lower temperature. The results of this satisfiesy the tough as nails crowd. The second half I cook at a hotter temperature for a shorter time. The soft result of this satisfies the wusses.
I don’t think the RBA will reduce interest rates, unless it does so to balance Swan’s Budget cuts and keep the economy ticking over. They are way under the preGFC peaks, necessary to stem rising credit bills during the Greed is good II binge, so the current rates are – MSM-fueled whingeing to the contrary – well within people’s ability to pay. There have been stat-based stories in the MSM (from memory, Fairfax) which show the extent to which people are ploughing excess cash into extra mortgage repayments.
What the RBA needed to do – and is currently doing – is to cure Aussies of credit binging and return them to savings and pay up front. The more we borrow, the higher the outflow of national capital to overseas lenders; with negative effects on our Balance of Trade/ Finance figures. It’s savers who screw bank profits! Credit-card spenders enhance bank profits.
Hopefully, Swan’s strategy of increasing the status of nonBank lenders, most of which offer interest (often fee-free interest) on even small savings, will see us return to the saving nation we were before Credit Cards.
MB
The polls may improve for Labor if
Interest rates go down
Carbon price in effect and does not impact greatly on consumers
Unemployment remains at current levels
Tax cuts for business and companies is passed through parly and in effect
And JG becomes a man. 🙂
5 seperate shootings in one night in Sydney. I swear they are doing it to take the p_ss out of O’Farrell.
mari @ 195
What amuses me about Mod Lib is that if the Libs get in she/he thinks a Turnbull / Sinodinos combination will somehow be in power and everything will be wonderful.
Talcum will nod sagely at everyone, smile and pretend to listen – but what he’d actually do is squirrel as much revenue as he can into his ‘sovereign fund’.
Sinodinos being an old Finance/Treasury hand and one of the prime targets of the ‘mean and tricky’ complaints when he was Howards main office boy will also say reassuring things to propositions put to him eg ‘You think we should look at Health Research when we get in ? Sure! That’s on our list of things to look at! (smile). Thanks for your input’ – while planning to cut it.
http://www.afr.com/p/technology/telstra_nbn_position_looks_good_GyM63GzKAf0SM7blzCBYhO
http://www.afr.com/p/world/europe_back_in_full_crisis_mode_3wuH4GGz7kUCckFZPXl0nO
http://www.afr.com/p/national/ridout_hits_back_at_economic_threat_IJzCUsbhPth7mQxHcvFNNJ
Leroy
I can understad why the NSW Libs want to exterminate the Nats. In NSW they poll half of the votes they receive at the election. Thatmeans that half of the electorates that vote Nat, would rather have the chance to vote for a Liberal.
bg
5?!!
bluegreen
Also to support the working party on opening the tactics debate up on links between drugs and crime. What Nixon’s war on drugs is costing us.
Thanks, Boerwar. So I’m a wuss, then!
Vic
from the Nine political reporter
victoria
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/five-sydney-shootings-in-four-hours-20120417-1x48m.html
There is a specific and interesting parallel between what is happening in Afghanistan now and what happened during the closing years of the Vietnam War: the troops realized that the wars were lost. Morale slumped. Behaviour deteriorated. There are various signs of the latter in Afghanistan.
When US troops are brought in for meetings with US dignitaries, they are now disarmed. Previously, this was not deemed necessary and troops were allowed to keep their arms.
triton
Only on the ANZACs front.
bg
Sydney siders would be safer in Kabul.
Boerwar
Another prediction. NSW Attonrney General Greg Smith will not be Attorney General by the first session of parliament 2012.
Boerwar
The US is going to be paying for the Afghanistan War for decades to come. It is going to be worse than the aftereffects of Vietnam. The high rotation and return of troops has meant a high increase in mental instability in returning servicemen and women.
Seems to me that Sydney is in the midst of a drug war.
Boerwar
Interesting observation.
Boerwar
I suggest the Julia Gillard will today announce that we will withdraw our troops from Oruzgan and redeploy them to Fairfield, Auburn and Cabramatta
bg
I see that your are going for two gold stars.
I take it that this prediction is not based on a wild stab in the dark?
victoria
Yes just like Melbourne has been with the “underbelly” saga.
I personally agree with Nicholas Cowdery and Dr Alex Wodack on this issue.
Boerwar
Did you give yourself a gold star re Rudd? 🙂
victoria @ 232
I was wondering if any of the Morans had survived and moved. 🙂
v
No. The gold star rules state that they cannot be self-awarded. It is a bit like politicians setting their own pay. Things could get distorted.
guytaur
Here in Melbourne we did not have drive by shootings. We had targetted hits!! Much more direct
Well, gotto go do the shopping, take the dog for its constitutional and cut down a tree.
Boerwar
Whilst Greg Smith is thoughtful and has a lifetime experience in the legal fraternity, and would undoubtedly be a fine AG who would reduce recidivism rates, increase the humanity within our prison and remand system, and reduce costs: he is unable to appear tough.
Shame the criteria for assessment of what makes a goog Minister is that.
Peter Martin on Newstart:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/welfare-failing-to-cover-rent-20120416-1x3tb.html
meanwhile in NSW it is the just and worthy that get the blessings…
A few more comments like this in the Daily Terror than you would expect.
And this is where everybody blames Albanese, Keating, and everything Labor, while ignoring the true culprits – the Howard govt. And barry O’farrell has proven to be am empty suit, so doing nothing has become the expected from him
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/13444842/tobacco-giants-govt-face-off-in-court/
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/pm-to-attend-gallipoli-service-20120416-1x3uh.html
I betcha one of Tones babysitters is sitting with him while he mumbles ‘bloody incompetent woman / Labor Party, mumble, border security’ – At which point babysitter says ‘FFS don’t yell out “STOP THE GUNS” ‘cos it will really upset the Nationals’
The shootings are a bit close to home for me. I have family that live in Merrylands. It has scared them and they no longer use the front bedroom or front of house lounge room.
A send up of The Poorest Band in the World.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwPHy17Iu6E