Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.

Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.

Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.

Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).

On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.

Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.

UPDATE (16/4): This week’s Essential Research has the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network is up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There is also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,086 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

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  1. “I am not saying that the CT is not good policy – it is but it sickens me when I see elitists saying it does not hurt.

    I do not know where you get $52 from but an average old lady living in a unit running an A/C for 6 hrs a day, cooking for one hr and with an old style hot water service will be up for an additional $250 per year.”

    Octogenarian aunty in Bundy, Dad in Sub-tropics too. Neither have air con let alone run it 6hrs a day. brick units are better insulated than Queenslanders.

    Meanwhile this elitist, electron starved family of four get by with 3 computers, 2 tvs, 1 air-con and power bills averaging $250 per quarter or roughly 4tonnes CO2 pa. And that’s with an energy inefficient Queenslander, and paying extra for 25% green power offset. It’s not hard to reduce wastage.

  5. Off any of the points here I know … but Ulhmann is a useless dickhead. Has all the local contacts to get the job done but obsessed with demonstrating he’s not biased towards the Labor Party.

    Watching repeat Dr Who instead.

  6. [ BW… sometimes I think you just like to pick a fight and argue for the hell of it. Grab centre stage and take on all comers.

    I will admit that you (and Abdul’s) do come across as at least part of the reason why Sydney should exist but surely there has to be more…]

    Well… ahem… in that case….

  7. g
    Seriously, though. When I was there they were discussing running the water through leaching processes and/or introducing heavy metal eating bacteria. Did they end up cleaning the river? If they managed it, it would be a major achievement.

  11. This Little Black Duck
    .
    A belated reply to your “TLA’s rule”. I thought TLA stood for “This Little Aylesbury” but just found out the real meaning. I once worked for an American multinational and TLA’s were wall to wall. Maybe that be why they have since fallen on hard times ?

  12. PtMD

    [They are sources I am citing. ]

    Before I debate this any more – are they large?

    Still sorta 😎 ‘cos I’m quick! 🙂

  13. How many times have i watched the Big O and friends (like the Boss & Elvis) now and still enjoy it like a virgin on STVDIO

  16. CU begins with Teh Surplus.

    Which is THE biggest point of contention between the Greens and Labor.

    Would someone actually like to how the two are co-operating?

  22. Hey Abbott. The Greens are not in Government. They have their policies costed by treasury. So Mr Abbott why do you continue to refuse treasury costing of your policies?

  23. Chris Uhlmann just said: “The London olympics, where all the best professional sportsmen will compete.”

    At least, in 1896, they had some pretense of amateurism.

    As a taxpayer, I resent the money doled out to our professional sports participants.

    Pay reasonable expenses and leave it at that.

  28. The TV is currently tuned to Australia’s got Talent. Oh fawwwwk, one hour of Sandilands, has a daughter ever sacrificed so much for her Mum?

  30. [AMA & techos are doing NBN BOO! on ABC. Our identities (medical data) will all be stolen.]

    I hope that isn’t what the AMA were saying. The NBN will be great for any doc who deals with country patient. We already sent data in medical consultations over the net which is encrypted.

    And what a friggin waste of someone’s time to try and decode a consultation to find out that Mrs EH in Wagga Wagga had a diuretic added to her medications to help control her hypertension.

    Medical information is almost worthless, except to the patient and their treating doctors.

  31. I was thinking about the Carnarvon solar project that Patricia of WA posted earlier.

    Has anybody heard Greg Combet, or any Labor person, talking about it?

  32. [ BW… sometimes I think you just like to pick a fight and argue for the hell of it. Grab centre stage and take on all comers.

    I will admit that you (and Abdul’s) do come across as at least part of the reason why Sydney should exist but surely there has to be more…

    Well… ahem… in that case…. ]

    Bushfire Bill – you have indicated over a period of time that you are not a connoisseur of fine food. And I’m not just talking about ‘fine dining’ with 6pack and $70 reference for 2 this day.
    Therefore, Sydney may only have the harbour left, albeit rimmed with bricks and mortar and don’t eat the fish.

  33. BH

    Not heard of it here. Just be careful using Carnarvon. If the opposition sees it they will think it is a new bit of info on HSU.

  34. Diogenes,

    An AMA bloke on the news did say that the “new” system of on-line medical data would lead to identity theft.

  36. 1. Succinct summary of GDP and GPI:
    http://www.sustainwellbeing.net/gpi.html

    2. Measuring progress – an ABS approach, 2009: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/1383.0.55.001Main+Features32009
    [The strong and growing international interest in this field is currently being coordinated by the OECD through its Global project on measuring the progress of societies and ongoing series of world forums. This project is grounded on the belief that the measurement of progress actually promotes progress. It is designed to support increased evidence based policy making in government and the community, encourage public debate and foster democracy. Although most regard Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as an important measure of progress, there are many who believe that it should be assessed in conjunction with other measures spanning society and the environment as well as the economy. This is the prime reason the ABS and many other countries look to an alternative approach (see ‘National and International Initiatives’).]

  37. TLBD

    [Australian Net Happiness Index]

    In Scullin? I’m trying to compute.

    Over the moon? I’ll go for a heath break soon and look but reasonably sure the Moon not up ’till 3 or so … Southern X Drive lights on will that do?

    Got it now – all sweetness & light!

  38. Ctar!
    By way of background, there has not been a male in my family line with a height less than 6 foot for about a century. We did have one shorty, he was only six foot, one inch tall.

    And hair, we get oodles of hair (on our heads). I could never get hair extensions, what the heck did women need hair extensions for? The damn stuff never stops growing, it gets so thick and long it takes ages to dry and when you swim it just a about drags you under.

  40. Identification leads to Identity Theft.

    There are facts and there are suppositions. The PBtariat is rather fond of facts.

  46. Good evening all.

    I haven’t seen the news yet, but it does feel as though Abbott is keeping a low profile. His polling always seems to improve when he goes MIA, no doubt trying to keep Newspoll at that 57-43 mark.

  47. [An AMA bloke on the news did say that the “new” system of on-line medical data would lead to identity theft.]

    It’s already happening and no-one has had their “identity” stolen. Is a hacker going to steal someone’s illness? WTF are they on about?

  48. By way of background, there has not been a male in my family line with a height less than 6 foot for about a century

    We can assume you are a Lesser Dragon?

  49. Anglo-Celtic
    I don’t know where it comes from but we have height, Anglo-celtic style physical beauty, brains and a tendency to go a bit bonkers. 👿

  50. [If the opposition sees it they will think it is a new bit of info on HSU.]

    gytaur – it’s been a long day for an old duck but I’m not quite with you on that. Pleez exploin 🙂

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