The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
UPDATE (16/4): This week’s Essential Research has the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network is up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There is also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
Larvatus Prodeo had become a little too precious, home to a small clique which was openly hostile to outsiders and to views which challenged their own.
A few years ago, it was one of my must visit sites, but I think I’ve clicked on it half a dozen times in the last year.
It’s not a case of the caravan moving on – although I can understand why you’d use that as an excuse! – but of the moderators getting too defensive.
Personally , i woukd want a highly trainec person not a baby siter.
zoomster 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 , reminds me of a few weeks ago
[I don’t think he did hold his own. His line about how the Germans suffered more than the Jews was truly bizarre.]
Must admit I didn’t see that one.
What I meant by “pub debate” is that a lot of the stuff between the two was point scoring, “witty” responses and put downs. Much like current political debate, actually. Not a lot of information got out. But I’m not sure that was the point anyway.
The best riposte of the night was from Dawkins. Pell asked him wtte, “Can you tell us how evolution works?”
Dawkins spat back, “Of course I can. It’s my life’s work.”
My Say
I agree. There are very good reasons for the child care traing. If parents want cheaper untrained options. Let them. Just no taxpayer subsidy for that.
[It’s not a case of the caravan moving on – although I can understand why you’d use that as an excuse! – but of the moderators getting too defensive.]
In “caravan” terms: Larvatus Prodeo found their oasis, and they’re staying put.
zoomster
Re nannies. Do you feel it is worth the govt commissioning a report on it?
guytaur #88, of course Max doesnt want another airport in Sydney. You cant charge monopoly prices if you dont have a monopoly any more …
BB SK – just finished watching Q & A again this am with OH – it is well worth watching – just shows how narrow and bigoted Pell is – likening gays to ‘flaws’ in carpets, jews are intellectually inferior and germans suffering more than jews in WW2. Compulsory viewing I say in light of the fact that we may have Abbott as PM.
Here is a favourite question of the right that applies to Abbotts Nanny State.
How much are the criminal background checks to screen out those danferous to children?
i am expecting the msm to miss a few more!
[gordongraham @RobCoughlan1 the MSM didn’t pick the Rudd spill, the hung parliament negotiation, Slipper or Carr until the last moment]
zoomster:
Agree with you about LP.
Another gem from PatriciaWA
[Tony’s happy to say
That his sister is gay,
But agrees with George Pell –
Real queers go to hell]
Confessions
How is the new job progressing? And have you spoken to your Lib friend again lately?
MM
Yes. However that does not prevent him making some valid points though.
His talk about public access for example. I do not think trains and ferry access would help with the great parking ripoff.
victoria
[Do you feel it is worth the govt commissioning a report on it?]
I don’t know, but I would think there’s heaps of reports out there into childcare and the best models for delivering it.
Ideologically, I’m a ‘let’s make it more acceptable for parents to work part time’ camp person.
I don’t like the shift to outsourcing child rearing.
I put my money where my mouth is: had every intention of going back to work after my first child was born, and changed my mind within a week.
It’s meant ongoing financial hardship, because I was (and am still) the main breadwinner, and have never really been able to get back into full time work for more than short periods, but I still think it was worth it.
Fortunately, we didn’t even consider having children until we knew the house was secure, so we didn’t have to worry about the mortgage.
I think the “nanny” debate has a way to go and Abbott has lifted the lid off an issue not addressed.
There are lots of good reasons why parents may choose a nanny rather than centre based child care, and currently they do not have support: These include:
3 children especially if all three are still nappy wearers. The actual cost of child care (after the subsidy may well by very close to the cost of a nanny)
Kids very susceptible to illnesses, so that the parent finds that they need to spend 1-2 days/week at home with a a child too ill to take to day care (the horror when chicken pox hits)
One child has social problems – quite common but hard to manage in a day care centre
Shift work (obviously)
I think perhaps Labor should start looking at the issue to counter Abbott.
Mind you it is a problem fraught with scope for scams and problems. Who is a nanny? Does Granma who trained as a nurse thirty years ago and is still very capable, but not formally qualified in child care, qualify for payment? Does the girl from USA or Germany qualify? Would it only be nanies from “Agencies” subsidised?
victoria:
The new job is great. Haven’t seen my friend lately – he works away and is in town only 1 week our of 4.
zoomster
I dont like the idea of subsidising nannies for a multitude of reasons. I only believe that commissioning a report would detail all the issues and costs of implementing such a subsidy. That would take the political debate out of the issue. I am of the view that Abbott can make hay out of this. We seem to have an electorate that is thinking it is a great idea for govt to subsidise this area of childcare. At least a full and proper investigation into this would be prudent.
…and just to add to that: Labor’s PPL would have seen me back in the workforce within six months…and I would have paid more than enough tax in the last sixteen years to compensate for that.
confessions
Pleased to hear the job is going well. Was curious to know if your friend had any further thoughts on the current state of play with the Libs!
Lyne Lady,
In light of the comments here today I will give it a watch later today. It is interesting to see what drives people or more importantly, the mentors of some people.
victoria
A lot of the childcare ‘issues’ seem to stem from the (selfish) idea that we can have it all – we don’t have to make any sacrifices of any kind to have what we want.
A similar attitude is displayed, I think, by the increasing tendency to set up houses so that children and parents lead almost separate lives.
I personally think that sharing TVs, bathrooms, loungerooms etc are Good Things for both parents and children.
One of my neice’s friends has had her own ‘suite’ since she was about seven. She can spend the whole day without seeing her parents.
We seem to be heading back to the days when children visited their parents at set times!
SK
When you do watch it, be aware the audience is stacked with Holy Rollers. A lot of Twitter talk about it last night.
Zoomster
I understand exactly what you mean. My mum calls it the me, me, me society!!
A comment I missed post Can Do scrapping literature prize.
Qld. Perfect one day. Bogansville the next.
The “Great Debate” wasn’t a debate. Pell cliched himself out of the conversation.
He burbled on about the transubstantiation of wine into blood when he would have been better to keep stum. Didn’t seem to have thought about several of the obvious questions such as “when did humanoids get a soul?”. He was completely ignorant on evolution. He trotted out so many of the ways of thinking of the old-fashioned religious that it was like listening to someone stuck in the 19C.
He wasn’t inspiring – he did nothing to convert me to Catholicism.
OTOH Dawkins was simply factual from a “scientific” pov. Didn’t convert me to atheism, either.
Waste of time, really.
George Pell finally admitted last night on #qanda that the Adam & Eve was just a myth, a story & God didnt create us, we evolved.
I think it ould have been more interesting to have a normal panel. Pell, Jensen, Dawkins, Rodney Croome, and a someone representing those children abused in childhood.
I think I remember Pell insisting that homosexuality was a cultural choice. Ties in with priests choosing celibacy to protect themselves (as if).
Again – beliefs from the 19C.
[George Pell finally admitted last night on #qanda that the Adam & Eve was just a myth, a story & God didnt create us, we evolved.]
Someone should write to the Opus Dei thought police in the Vatican about this and have Mr Pell sacked, like the Bishop of Toowoomba.
[I think it ould have been more interesting to have a normal panel. Pell, Jensen, Dawkins, Rodney Croome, and a someone representing those children abused in childhood.]
A “normal” panel would have to include the obligatory IPA ‘research fellow’.
lizzie
That is when he “recovered” with the carpet flaw comment.
Cuppa
You are right. No pun intended.
My Say
I have sent my email off to Conroy to get a move on with those media reforms. I did make a point that factual accuracy in the media was to his political advantage.
Well, the IPA representative would have come down on the side of free will (free choice)!!
http://www.afr.com/p/technology/little_gain_in_halting_the_nbn_juggernaut_IKd4sbqA9MOsffCbIr4cKJ
[Little gain in halting the NBN juggernaut
PUBLISHED: 7 HOURS 53 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 4 HOURS 29 MINUTES AGO
JOHN MCDULING
Talkback radio isn’t the obvious forum to promote the virtues of the national broadband network, so when recent attempts to do just that backfired it shouldn’t be surprising.
……….
The difficulty for Coalition MPs in prosecuting attacks about the cost of the NBN is that there are no budget savings to be made from stopping the project, or building it more cheaply.
Government funding for the NBN, which amounts to $27.5 billion over a decade, is treated as capital investment on the budget, sitting on the income side of the ledger, rather than expenditure.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/operation-stare-down/story-e6frg6z6-1226322320678
[Operation stare down
BY: DAVID CROWE, NATIONAL AFFAIRS EDITOR From: The Australian April 10, 2012 12:00AM
FOUR years after federal Labor set out to fix the federation, the engine of national reform is back in the workshop as Canberra and the states struggle for control of the agenda.
The prospects for reform have dimmed as policy disputes descend into personal antagonisms that make it increasingly difficult to settle agreements that are meant to add billions of dollars to economic growth, just when the nation needs it most.]
As someone who could never accept the certainties of either Catholicism or atheism, I saw Pell as a bumbling old twit and Dawkins as an arrogant intellectual snob.
lizzie
Yes and that IPA rep would agree that suffering is the price we are paying nd if poor it is your fault you are suffering more.
[George Pell finally admitted last night on #qanda that the Adam & Eve was just a myth, a story & God didnt create us, we evolved.]
…to become flipper?
It was astonishing watching Sky last night when the quarterly breakdown was released, to hear Bramston say the gains Labor made since last year “had evaporated”. He just repeated the Shanahan spin on the figures.
He looked ridiculous, saying how Labor’s numbers had dropped, then putting up a graphic showing a slight increase.
It was bizarre.
The Age front page story
http://www.theage.com.au/frontpage/2012/04/10/frontpage.pdf
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/employers-push-to-cut-pay-hours-20120409-1wl8s.html
[Employers push to cut pay, hours
Clay Lucas
April 10, 2012
EMPLOYERS have expanded their push to cut minimum working hours – in one case to as little as 90 minutes a day for school students – and to slash weekend pay for casuals.
They are also moving to abolish evening penalty rates and to narrow the definition of ”shift work”, according to submissions to a major review of the awards system being conducted by Fair Work Australia.
Unions, after analysing more than 200 submissions to the review, have accused employers of ”merely laying the foundation” for an Abbott government to cut wages and conditions.]
[…to become flipper?]
The only creature GOD created were the Dolphins because we asked him to and gave him the Specs 😛
[As someone who could never accept the certainties of either Catholicism or atheism, I saw Pell as a bumbling old twit and Dawkins as an arrogant intellectual snob.]
Dawkins is justifiably sick of superstition being taken seriously and being given credibility simply because it is dressed up in a dog collar and purple robes.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/07/conservative-politics-low-effort-thinking_n_1410448.html
advocate.com/Politics/Dont_Say_Darwin_Tennessee_Has_a_New_Idea/
Burgey
Bramston is singing for his supper
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/04/01/andrew-sullivan-christianity-in-crisis.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2127453/M16-1m-bribe-silence-torture-victim-Spies-gave-dissident-Gaddafi-thugs.html