Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.

Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.

Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.

Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).

On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.

Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.

UPDATE (16/4): This week’s Essential Research has the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network is up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There is also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,086 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

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  1. BB

    That is why the Abbott plan will fail. As for Mr De Bruyn I think he should not be giving the Australian fodder with which to bash the government he is supposed to support.

  2. DG

    Forget the tipping! My oh and son came back from the game downtrodden. They really thought their team was going to beat the cats this time. They were very sad!!

  3. Re nannies.

    My mum’s friend has a daughter who recently hired a live in nanny from the US who came in to hook up with a guy she met online. Anyone hazard a guess as to her weekly wage?

  4. I should add this person has three young children requiring care. Aged 8, 6, and 4. This nanny takes the older kids to school and collects them as well.

  5. {Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association national secretary Joe de Bruyn told The}

    From memory mr bruyn, i an older person,

    Now when in the 70s, child care was mentioned, it was very frowned upon, in my group of friends
    We sort of thought no way, this for mothers who are not mothering corre tly, i think it was a snob
    Thing, after all here we where at home, doing the correct thing, 🙂 ,,,lala blah..

    Then close by was a lovley lady with a lityle play center, now thats different e said thts not child

    care, so for 4.50, half day, off my forst born went, even kinda was frowned on far to early, blah
    Nowof couse we realise and by the 80.s, most did, the snob value of this was fading,
    And now , we see the educational values, in children mixing with children no cloistered at home
    .this week just passed my daughter was worried about our granddaughters, fine motor skills.
    A lady from esrly childhood at my daughters request, went to the child care center our granddaughter goes to one day a week and observed her playing, all fine,

    Now some should explain to mr bruyn generation, i bet a lot of them still have hanger overs from
    The 70s, those mothers syndrome

  6. victoria,

    IMHO the entire executive of the HSU need to be booted for there to be any chance of them altering the toxic culture in the HSU.

  7. On Sydney Second Airport

    I agree with BOF. Not the DT, Business Council and Mr Albanese.
    Loook at impact of high speed rail on air traffic between London and Paris. Then alongside that put the impact of less business travel as teleconferencing comes into its own thanks to the NBN.

  8. Vicroria, any LABOR gov, doing this woukd have to guide lines like child care strictly enforced
    Now how do you do that, first thibg went wrong.

    It woukd be school hall, batts in ceilings . The only people that shoukd qualify, is people
    That have children with severe dissabilities, but even they benefit, and it gived the mother a break
    One thing coukd be subsidsed help for transport, i see a mum, when i do the taking,
    Eith a little boy with cearabul palsey, come in her vw van with wheel chair, and two ither children
    What a big ask even if its only 2 days its hard work

    NO leave the nanny ting alone, first mishap its julia,s fault she should of been there,

  9. Looking at the raw primary vote figures for the Coalition since the 2010 election:

    NSW +0.9
    Qld +0.4
    Vic +4.4
    SA -1.2
    WA -2.6

    For all of the hysteria of Tony etc, only movements of note are in Victoria (!), and moves away in SA and WA. However:

    2PP drops since 2010 for Labor:
    NSW -6.7
    Vic -8.8
    Qld -3.6
    SA -6
    WA -0.2

    So voters appear to be moving to a 3rd party/independent, then Newspoll is carving up the preferences as per the last election. The 2PP seems quite harsh to Labor when the Coalition primary vote is showing little movement from the 2010 elcetion.

  10. Sorry misread the table:

    2PP drops for ALP since 2010 election:
    NSW – 3.5
    Vic -5.3
    Qld -2.9
    SA -2.2
    WA +0.4

    Seems a bit better

  11. The ‘non capitals’ vote is interesting; it appears to be shifting back to Labor more quickly than the others and is nearly back at the (admittedly poor) level of support it was at the last election.

    On primaries: Labor’s ‘non capital’ vote was 34.8 at the election. It is now 32 – but that’s a rise of 3 points since the last quarter.

    On 2PP: Labor’s ‘non capital’ vote was 46.6 at the last election and is now 45.

  12. docantk

    I think you have just explained the shrillness from the right. They know things are closer than the propaganda machine spouts.

  13. [Did anyone watch Q and A last night? Did they grill Pell on gay marriage?]

    From what I saw Pell held his own, as far as it being a pub debate was concerned. He’s a lot quicker on his feet than I expected, and seems pretty intelligent.

    But I don’t think he convinced anyone that God exists.

  14. victoria,

    The accusation that records were destroyed is an old one however it was an office manager who accused Jeff Jackson of destroying the records.

  15. Phil Clarke interviewing Tony Jones on QandA debate. First question: So Mr Jones did you lose sleep wondering if you were the last election. That online question last night had 20,000 respondents. Now there is a sample size for Newspoll and Nielsen to ponder.
    It lo points to a possible lessening of the lobbying power of zthe Christian Lobby due to perceived influence vs actual influence.

  16. (guytaur Posted Tuesday, April 10, 2012 at 7:35 am | Permalink

    Time for Labor to move on media reform. The right wing media propaganda machine i out of control. Bring back clearly listed opinion separate from news. That would mean no more Shanahan opinion pieces on polls. Instead, it would just be a note)

    We all need to email sen conroys office about, the enquiry, that was done,

  17. BB

    [From what I saw Pell held his own]

    Pell was at his pompous best. He was both condescending and arrogant. None of those descriptors run hand in hand with “christian” for me.

  18. BB,

    I’d like to see some more of these debates. One on climate science would be a great one (without politicians).

  19. DWH

    I can’t speak for anyone else, but I personally don’t think anyone will come out of this with a clean record.

    That doesn’t mean anyone has done anything illegal, just a very widespread murky shade of grey.

  20. As a do as i please catholic( practise my faith my way)
    I wonder who thought up the idea of q and a , last night,
    Last friday, we went out to lunch both sides of families in laws out laws,
    To my amazement soe if the younger ones had sent emails, to the sydney, cathederal office,
    Re guy marriage, and how offended they felt, as they have friends, gay , but also for the churches
    Overall stance,

    So these catholic younger 20/30 had done this, i actualky think if any one in the liberal party thought this ws a good idea, they actually have no idea, i think if there was a reason for q and a and we dont know why they chose the subject and quests,
    It will back fire,

  21. Pell ‘seems pretty intelligent’
    Given the balderdash the man claims to believe this observation defies comprehension.

  22. (sted Tuesday, April 10, 2012 at 8:51 am | Permalink

    The ‘non capitals’ vote is interesting; it appears to be shifting back to Labor more quickly than the others and is nearly back at the (admittedly poor) level of support it was at the last election.)

    Thank you zoomster,

  23. Hmmm, just wondering if PB will suffer the same fate:

    [Larvatus Prodeo’s Last Post
    By Mark Bahnisch on April 10, 2012

    As of today, Larvatus Prodeo will cease publishing.

    After a couple of test posts, the blog began to wend its way through the online world on March 17, 2005, so it’s a very old beast in internet years.

    We collectively feel seven years is enough.

    I think LP played a significant role in stimulating political debate over the course of its life, and acted as something of a catalyst for a lot of good things in the spaces of new media and public discourse.

    To large degree, though, the caravan has moved on.

    There’s no longer the same need for a hub for political discussion, as lively debate has migrated to social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter, and as the space for opinion and analysis around the shop has widened. The fact that the ‘blogosphere’ in Australia is no longer a term that makes much sense is an indicator of that change.

    To a large degree, LP was a victim of its own success, adopting a role as a sort of ‘blog of record’ where the daily political news could be analysed and dissected. I think this was an important thing for some time, particularly during the last of the Howard years. However, LP bloggers, I think, became increasingly uneasy about this focus, wondering whether we weren’t inadvertently feeding the media cycle beast.]

  24. I think u can get a live in nanny ie a student or such from the US for a few hundred dollars a week as long as u provided them with food and board. It seems bizzarly cheap! However if u pay for a qualified australian person to take care of ur child just during the day ud be up about the same a say

  25. Dan, agreed, and i did not watch it, lol
    When i was young a cardinal would never go on tv., ‘old dire hard catholics, may not be impressed

    I am nit only for the reason , i feel he does not represent me

    Now back to the tulips

  26. Sydney Airport has a major infrastructure problem. Its the getting to and from that is a major problem. It needs better rail. Better roads. As the airport is on the water I wonder why there is no ferry access?

  27. virtualkat

    The nanny I was referring to earlier, gets $250 per week. This includes taking older kids to and from school and looking after youngest all day, until parents get home around 7pm. I think it is cheap, but also I have watched too many American movies, and always imagine the worst about live in nannies!!!

  28. {became increasingly uneasy about this focus, wondering whether we weren’t inadvertently feeding the media cycle beast.}
    Now thats interesting, i know i am not alone, in asking some people to stop some dicusions
    Re negative re leadership ect,
    As people read this blogg from every where, they know who the negative nellies are,

  29. [cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter)]

    Peter Brent has said after the NSW election he expected federal Labor’s vote to improve in NSW towards the end of last year, and into this year. Looks like he was right.

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