More opinion poll carnage for Labor, this time from Morgan’s face-to-face survey of 951 lucky respondents last weekend. The headline two-party figure is 57.5-42.5, a return to the worst lows of last year. As was the case on those occasions, Labor’s deteriorating primary vote position has been accompanied by a further sag in their already weak share of minor party preferences, which as I have said many times is not what I expect to happen at the election – and indeed, it was again directly contradicted this week by Nielsen, whose respondent-allocated preference result of 56-44 suggested Labor’s preference share was about 70% compared with the 45% currently suggested by Morgan. Using the previous-election method of distributing preferences, Morgan offers a much milder figure of 53.5-46.5. Accounting for the consistent Labor lean in Morgan’s face-to-face polling, the primary vote figures are consistent with the impression from Newspoll and Nielsen: Labor on 32%, the Coalition on 44.5% and the Greens on 13%.
Plentiful preselection action:
• Barnaby Joyce has confirmed he will seek preselection for Bruce Scott’s outback Queensland seat of Maranoa, presumably in pursuit of the party leadership and deputy prime ministership. Scott, who is 69, is yet to make his intentions clear. The party’s current leader, Warren Truss, tells The Australian he will back Scott in any contest between the two, on the basis that “members are entitled to the loyalty of their leader”.
• Unions Tasmania state secretary Kevin Harkins has indicated he is still interested in a Labor parliamentary berth, after being dumped as candidate for Franklin in 2007 and frozen out for Senate preselection in 2010. The guiding hand on each occasion was Kevin Rudd, whose identification of Harkins as a totem of union ratbaggery never entirely added up. A fortnight ago, The Australian reported Rudd had been heard admitting he had confused Harkins with Kevin Reynolds, Western Australian CFMEU colossus and truly the “well-known pugilist” of Rudd’s description. Rudd insisted it was “incorrect to claim that his decision to not support Mr Harkins in 2010 was based on any confusion with Kevin Reynolds”, but Australian Mines and Metals Association chief executive Steve Knott has told The Australian: “Everyone in the IR community and up in Canberra knew that Rudd had mixed up the two Kevins. The problem for Harkins and his political ambitions was Rudd hating to be wrong.” It is now anticipated that Harkins will seek to fill the Senate vacancy to be created at the next election by the retirement of Nick Sherry. Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Left-backed push by Harkins would “force sitting Right faction senator Catryna Bilyk to the highly vulnerable No 3 position, potentially sparking a factional brawl”.
• Stuart Carless of the Milton-Ulladulla Times reports on the acrimonious withdrawal of two candidates for the Liberal preselection vote to choose a successor to the retiring Joanna Gash in Gilmore. Clive Brooks, owner of South Nowra business Great Southern Motorcycles and reportedly an ally of Gash, complained of “snide, horrible little people” in the local party spreading false rumours about past business failures. Shoalhaven councillor Robert Miller has apparently quit the party altogether, complaining about a letter sent to him by the party’s state director Mark Neeham which treatened him with suspension over rather mild-sounding comments to the media. Still in the field are “Shoalhaven City councillor Andrew Guile, Ulladulla resident Grant Schultz, former Kiama councillor Ann Sudmalis and Meroo Meadow marketing consultant Catherine Shields”. It is said that Gash and Guile are bitter rivals, and that she and state Kiama MP Gareth Ward “exchanged words in a heated argument at radio station 2ST last week”. I gather the subject of the argument to have been a proposal to extend to federal MPs the state government’s mooted ban on parliamentarians serving as mayors and councillors, which would upset her own plan to spend the final year of her term making the transition to the mayoralty of Shoalhaven, which she will contest at local government elections in September.
• Heath Aston of the Sun-Herald reports the Liberals will hold a preselection primary for the western Sydney seat of Greenway, which they decisively failed to snatch at the 2010 election. Liberal sources quoted in the report rate this “a calculated bid to prevent the previous candidate, Jayme Diaz, a Blacktown migration lawyer, from running again”. Diaz is reckoned a certainty under normal preselection processes because, as Aston puts it: “Mr Diaz, who arranges visas for clients, has signed many new members to the branches in Greenway and has a ‘stranglehold’ on numbers”. Diaz is a member of the area’s “large Filipino community” and has backing from the Christian Right. It is noted that the Right has suffered a string of preselection defeats of late, and that the effective imposition of another on Greenway “could flare factional tensions”.
• The Liberal preselection for the winnable Sydney seat of Reid has been won by the Tony Abbott-backed Craig Laundy, heir to and general manager of his father’s “$500 million hotel empire”. VexNews reports that Laundy’s rival for the preselection, Dai Le, a frequent preselection contestant and twice candidate for unwinnable Cabramatta, received only nine votes out of 117. VexNews also relates a complaint from an interested party about the NSW Liberals’ poor record in selecting Asian candidates (see also previous entry), which presumably comes from the Right: other accounts paint Laundy’s win as part of the previously noted string of moderate victories over candidates backed by the Right.
• Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury reports Senator Bill Heffernan has been taking interest in the preselection for Throsby, a “sign the party believes it can snatch the once-safe Labor seat”. The only contender identified is Larissa Mallinson, “a former press adviser to Gilmore MP Joanna Gash who now works in the office of Liberal senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells”.
• Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor’s preselection primary to choose its candidate for the lord mayoralty has attracted seven candidates. They are Cameron Murphy, president of the NSW Council for Civil Liberties and the son of Lionel Murphy; Cassandra Wilkinson, co-founder of FBi Radio; “restaurateur Jonathan Yee; a former arts adviser to Bob Carr, Vivienne Skinner; the refugee advocate Linda Scott; the former South Sydney mayor Vic Smith and the academic Damian Spruce”. Nicholls explains the procedure thus:
All 90,000 residents on the electoral roll of the City of Sydney will be sent candidate information and a ballot paper and invited to participate, including attending public debates. Voting will open on May 14 and be held online and in person at booths in the council area … Votes will be tallied and the candidate announced on June 2.
If the government succeeds in its bid to drive Clover Moore from her seat of Sydney by prohibiting parliamentarians from serving similtaneously as mayors or councillors, Labor indicates it will repeat the procedure to choose its candidate for the by-election.
Oh bugger. Looks like labor types will get through the gates to continue the lib/labor war. Tic.
[ShowsOn
Posted Monday, April 9, 2012 at 10:18 pm | Permalink
Pell is totally doddering.
This is the most humble day of his life.]
Don’t tell me.
Channelling Rupe instead of God the father, son and holy ghost!
Philosophy v Conviction. An unequal game.
[Philosophy v Conviction. An unequal game.]
Reason v Faith. They don’t play on the same field.
Never thought I would feel sorry for George Pell but this is cruel.
Poor George is struggling to justify basic doctrines such as bodily resurrection.
Pell is now slipping into childish argumentation.
[This little black duck
Posted Monday, April 9, 2012 at 10:22 pm | Permalink
Philosophy v Conviction. An unequal game.]
Was the studio audience convicted?
Is it OK to tell a child that god does not exist?
Dawkins: Yes, but don’t tell them that they go to hell if they don’t.
Goodie, i can go to heaven, thanks George. Can I have #playboybunny instead of #easterbunny then
[As I understand it, the thousands (hundreds, actually) of govt jobs to go are those where the programs have already ended. The contracts will not be renewed.
I don’t think you understand that the stimulus can’t last forever. If the govt keeps prime pumping the market, it will never stand up on its own two feet.]
If the programs were finished then the jobs would not need to be made redundant. Furthermore, those people are in a job now and come June will not be in a job in July.
Additionally, the rate of budgetary constraction Swan is planning is out of sync with the fiscal pathway post-recession for the last thirty years of recessions. Swan is trying to return to post-recession surplus two years earlier than has been done in history. This despite the economy recovering at a slower rate than any of the previous recessions.
Swan’s plan is austerity pure and simple. It turns its back on thirty years of better-than-average fiscal policy making.
It will throw us into recession, totally unnecessarily.
Pell………..NFI
George about to forfeit.
wtte “We are here to suffer and a bod suffer to relieve us”.
A prelate out of his church is like a lost child.
That is it for me!
So why did god make gays??????
Shit, just tuned in on News Radio.
Pell said: I think the Germans have suffered more than the Jews.
Game over.
You dont need to believe in God to feel better or live longer. Believe in yourself #qanda
“Jesus had two dads and he turned out alright”…………….classic
Brining the church to prime time was not fair on Pell. He has made a full cooked goose of him self.
Nicola, Prissy and AC Grayling on QandA next week.
I am still trying to work out what Pell said all night………obviously talking in tongues
Oh no I missed Q&A.
Who won the debate, Dawkins or Pell 😆
Centre
Pell lost. Didn’t need Dawkins to beat him.
bluegreen
[It will throw us into recession, totally unnecessarily.]
your opinion, not a fact.
Centre
I have faith that science won
I liked the way Dawkins said just enough to let Pell hang himself.
bluegreen
you’re a pessimist.
I’m an optimist.
And never the twain shall meet.
End of.
Goodnight all.
Lateline: HSU
[I have faith that science won]
Science did not need to prove anything. God and the church can not stand up the the most simple of questioning. Much like FWA.
BK 😉
What, don’t tell me Pell said we are here to suffer?
There you go. We finally have an explanation for the ideology of Tony Abbott 😐
Now Jackson in firing line.
kezza2 @ 3073
As are most of your posts.
But BG is right that the govt pulling $40B out of the economy before the revenue base has fully recovered is contractionary.
Of course it may be swamped by a massive surge in private investment and consumer spending. Are you expecting that to happen?
Was Pell asked some of the following questions?
Was JC married to MM?
Was JC fathered by a Roman soldier?
Was Mary a virgin with JC’s brothers and sisters?
😀
[rummel
Posted Monday, April 9, 2012 at 10:41 pm | Permalink
I have faith that science won
Science did not need to prove anything. God and the church can not stand up the the most simple of questioning. Much like FWA.]
Ah, FMD, another comedian.
Lucky it’s bedtime.
Another fairy tale in the making. YAWN
Night all.
(Last name red wombat Posted Monday, April 9, 2012 at 10:04 pm | Permalink
Walk through any children’s hospital and tell me if there is a god)
Certainly tests ones faith, , but also , we saw it from another side as well.
So many little miricles for our george,
No he was not named after the guest on g an a, ,
, so many sick children it breaks your heart.
The people at the childrens hospital are gifted, may be thats how it works, these people are blessed
With skills to do their very best for the sick, if one beleives in god, surley we cannot expect a perfect
World, if there isor is not its such a simplicity to blame the ills and sadness on god, who knows
Its up to the individual to decide ,
man has also free will , ,
2
By the way i did not watch it not a fan of pell or the other chappy either.
bemused
[As are most of your posts.]
And so are yours.
YAWN
G’night.
Oh, best of all:
– If God made us, why did he have to send his son to get crucified to supposedly free us from sins?
– Couldn’t God get us right the first time round and save all the trouble?
😀
Ta Bemused. Well said.
Jesus was a prophet (not son of god). He was getting too much following so they rubbed him out.
Just like John The Baptist before him.
😀
Next topic 😛
Ah, the Righteous Brothers.
In tandem.
Music to sleep by.
Wake me when it’s over.
😆
bg @ 3088
I didn’t know you were into economics.
What rubbish,, no one was born to suffer, but people tread their own path,
There are directions we dont have to take,
Sigh what a complcated world .
If priests where able to marry, tbey would see and understand better,
Its just ridiculous, another church made rule,
I would love to think jesus was married to m m
I read something revently , that jesus would of ask for more wine
For his own wedding, 🙂 🙂
Center every thing u say, we say to ourselves and friends and famiy
U make me laugh , your such a funny one nite
My Say, I think it’s too late for the church to do a backflip. She was meant to be a prostitute.
Sheezus imagine that, the son of god’s wife a hooker 😆
Centre #3082
“Was JC married to MM?”
Just baptism and confirmation here mate … oh you meant another MM?
Are but think of the life experience, i think if it was the case all would be forgiven
May be thats the symbol of it all
Mm no not u, your not old enough 🙂 🙂
You have to laugh dont you or you would go mad, off your tree , round the twist,
Nite
Nite my say
Given we are talking about atheism, my favourite comments thread on PB is this one. It is the one where JGs atheism became known shortly after she was made PM. It made some commenter joyous and made others despondent.
It is also the post where Psephos, one of the staffers of Rudd’s overthrow ring-leaders, laid out the reasons in real time why it was right to get rid of Rudd.
Some absolute beauties in hindsight there. (all shown up to be bs)
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/06/29/westpoll-54-5-45-5-to-federalcoalition-in-wa
Conversation between my wife and my four year old at the park today..
“mum, mum, the leaves are falling from the trees”
“its autumn, the leaves fall from the trees”
“its not awesome mum”.