Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. and gold $1 and $2 coins with the astounding innovation of the $2 being larger than the $1

    The gold coins weren’t changed in the revamp of the smaller denominations as far as I know, the Kiwis were just smart enough to make their $1/$2 coins the right sizes to begin with, although they had the slight advantage of introducing both coins at the same time.

    Definitely with you on canning the 5c – I had just figured we’d slowly lose the silver coins over time so why bother redesigning them all, but hey, I respect the NZers for decisive action!

  2. I’ve never voted other than ALP in 35 years of voting. If Kev-07 is party leader at the next election I’ll be finding something else to do on the day.

  3. [MTBW
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 6:07 pm | Permalink
    Peg

    My perception of bemused is that he engages constructively with Labor’s shortcomings and cares deeply about the party he supports.

    Spot on Peg!

    Looking at the published polls alone Federal Labor couldn’t win a chook raffle in a pub at the moment. That certainly oesn’t indicate that all is going well all we need to do is just give it time.]
    Actually, go back through bemused’s postings, and you will find he has no time for Gillard supporters. Purely and simply because he has no time for Gillard.

    As for Labor policy, he has time for Rudd/Gillard iniatives only – and then only the Rudd bit of the initiative – as if Rudd operated in a vacuum. So that anything Gillard does to bed down their joint initiatives is seen by bemused as something Rudd should get plaudits for.

    Would you, Peg, give kudos to Milne, if Brown retired/was forced to retire (and seriously, the Greens should start looking in that direction) – or would it forever be given to Brown (and not Milne, as the deputy leader)?

    And MTBW, same for you, although I’ve never really decided one way or the other about your political bent? Hey, and that’s not a question about your political bent, it’s a question of how you would treat a new leader who was once the deputy at a given point in time.

  4. Well, I read the reccos of the select committee and they are OK. I can see why they formed a majority report. It is a bit of a pity that Ms SHY has jumped on the stump and pretended that it its really Greens stuff and if only the stupid old Labor Government would pull its finger out, all would be well.

    But that is what I have come to expect. MAD between Labor and the Greens.

  5. An opinion piece by Professor Alan Dupont, a former military officer and now professor of international security at the University of NSW, on Australia’s relations with the United States:
    [A leading defence analyst has warned that the Gillard government risks unsettling Australia’s neighbours by being seen as too accommodating of American requests for military expansion in the region.

    Alan Dupont told the Lowy Institute in Sydney yesterday ”our defence relations with the region are (now) totally overshadowed by the US alliance” and developments in the alliance are ”very difficult for anyone to work out, let alone our Asian neighbours”.]
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/close-defence-links-with-us-risk-return-of-deputy-sheriff-era-20120329-1w0w2.html

  6. Well, I still feel dudded. I got a ten cent coin that is only worth 8 cents and no-one around here will take it. I will have to fly to NZ to get my payout, so I will be several hundred good Oz dollars out of pocket.

    I can see why the dropper left it on the footpath. Probably deliberate.

  7. [latikambourke Australian Government has received convergence review into media and will release it by late April.
    38 minutes ago]

  8. kezza

    [And MTBW, same for you, although I’ve never really decided one way or the other about your political bent?]

    Would nearly twenty six years in the ALP help you out?

  9. In South Australia

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qkScIwFzAo

    [Uploaded by ten on Mar 30, 2012
    A dog of a day for gaffe prone Liberal MP Michael Pengilly, who called police rather than answer Ten News questions over his Parliamentary insult. His leader Isobel Redmond declaring she now has very little confidence in him, after the latest in a string of comments directed at women.]

  10. kezza2,

    Good to CU back 🙂
    [Would you, Peg, give kudos to Milne, if Brown retired/was forced to retire (and seriously, the Greens should start looking in that direction) – or would it forever be given to Brown (and not Milne, as the deputy leader)?]
    As i have stated many times, i do not engage in personality politics, including speculation of any kind relating to any political party, be it about leadership, sex scandals and the like.

    I focus on the issues that r important to me and balancing everything on offer, look to the party that imo addresses those issues best.

  11. [MTBW
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 6:21 pm | Permalink
    kezza

    And MTBW, same for you, although I’ve never really decided one way or the other about your political bent?

    Would nearly twenty six years in the ALP help you out?]
    That wasn’t the point, MTBW.
    The point was “how you would treat a new leader who was once the deputy at a given point in time.”

    If you’re saying you support bemused’s opinion that Gillard isn’t Labor’s legitimate leader, then so be it. I can not agree.

  12. [“Re Carbon Pricing: someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I thought it was designed to be a money-go-round (what GW is referring to as a “Ponzi Scheme” for some reason).”]

    I call it a Ponzi Scheme because just like in a Ponzi Scheme everyone puts their money in but not everyone gets their money back, mainly anyone over $50K a year(pretty low wage these days).

    If it was a money-go-round you’d actually see your cash again…

  13. GW just loves the prospect of 400ppm atmospheric CO2. Higher than at any time for the last 800,000 years and just passing through.

  14. Of course Annabel Crabbe supports Abbott’s nanny brain fart – she has two little kids. I’m sure she’d love a government subsidised nanny to help out, even though she does seem to work from home a lot. It must be so hard getting by on the squillions their ABC pays her for doing not much at all, plus her husband’s meagre GP’s income. My heart bleeds for the struggle the Crabbe/Storer family must endure to pay for child care.

    Annabel just loves Abbott anyway, she’s sure to gush over anything and everything he says.

  15. Boerwar where did I ever say that.

    I actually agree that CO2 outputs from humans are affecting the climate.

    Now get me a scientist that thinks Australia’s 5% cut of our 1% of global emissions is going to make jack-all difference in changing that.

    Come on… just one scientist thats not too much to ask is it?

  16. [Not at all. There are many different types of tofu, including silken tofu which has a delicate melt in your mouth texture.]

    I eat heaps of tofu — and am yet to find it works like a saucy cheese in recipes that require same

  17. Sorry, got that wrong, the Crabbe’Storers don’t have to struggle on a GP’s pay, that’s her FIL, Annabel’s hubby is a lawyer, that must make it even harder to get by.

  18. Peg
    [I focus on the issues that r important to me and balancing everything on offer, look to the party that imo addresses those issues best.]
    Laudable though that is, you appear quite keen to support bemused’s trashing of JG.
    And that was the question.

    And I’m sure, despite your purity regarding policy outcomes, you do have an opinion on leadership issues.

    bemused doesn’t discuss policy, his main game is to trash JG.
    I don’t agree with that – hence my leadership question to you.

    btw, thanks for your welcome
    It was such a back-hander from the moderator, I wasn’t sure whether to brave it.
    OTOH, I’m sure I’ll make his prediction come true tonight!

  19. GW
    Don’t be coy. Your master thinks climate science is crap. Stick with him mate and all well be well on the AGW front.

  20. One more 🙂
    [The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, has rejected union demands that employers bear the full cost of the superannuation increases associated with the Minerals Resource Rent Tax.

    The Australian Council of Trade Unions resolved at its national executive meeting this week to oppose wage trade-offs to accommodate the three-point super increase]
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/swan-rejects-union-demands-on-super-20120329-1w166.html

    A looming stoush between parliamentary Labor party and, the ACTU and unions.

    One of the reasons why the Henry Review did not recommend an increase in the super guarantee.

    The lowest paid workers, the most vulnerable and marginalised workers, who need every cent they earn in their hands now, will cop it in the neck (speculation or fact?)

  21. Boerwar the Coalition has a policy of incentive based carbon reductions.

    Labor has a punishment based carbon reduction scheme.

    Both have apparant target cuts of 5% of Australia’s 1% of global emissions by 2020.

    Why then don’t Labor supporters like the Coalition plan? Well simple really… because Labors plan is a wealth redistribution plan, whereas the Coalitions might actually work at reducing CO2.

  22. GeeWizz

    [whereas the Coalitions might actually work at reducing CO2.]

    Before you wanted the name of one scientist who supported the idea that 5% would make any difference.

    OK; so find one scientist who agrees with you statement that Direct Action might work.

  23. jenauthor
    [am yet to find it works like a saucy cheese in recipes that require same]
    We have never tried to make a sauce out of tofu….also rarely make sauces out of hard cheeses…prefer ricotta, cottage cheese…when quark was easily available…delicious in desserts… 🙂

  24. [Gee all this “cost of living” crap gives me the shits.

    Aside from people on Newstart or other benefits and the very low paid NO-ONE is doing it hard. Whingers!!!]

    Agreed. I recall reading somewhere earlier today (it might have been in Global News) that a significant swathe of mortgagees are now paying their borrowings off at a substantially accelerated rate (some by as much as double the minimum monthly payments).

    People seem to be deliberately tightening the belt and ‘saving’ rather than spending, which is doubtless a good thing after a decade or more on credit, while at the same time having a jolly good whine about losing-out on some of the discretionary goodies they used to enjoy.

    They really can’t have it both ways: They can rack-it away, pat themselves on the back and tell themselves that they’re canny little Scotsmen and women, or they can keep putting that sugar up their noses (or whatever hey do with it) and partaaaaying-on.

    Whatever these munts decide to do, FFS I wish they’d quit blaming the Government for their own God-damned choices and the consequences that inevitably follow from the same.

    And now he’s told them they can have a fuacking Nanny………….

  25. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 6:24 pm | Permalink
    k2

    BW (changed your name to bemused?)

    Well, not after last night…]
    That’s two sources, now, must be right.
    What the hell happened last night!
    Or need I ask.

    Umm, what I meant was I had addressed a question to bemused and you answered, simple as that!

    btw, I saw a comment of yours, early yesterday or the day before? regarding Sale Sion girls.

    Have to tell you, I laughed out loud, and a lot.

    I seriously can’t remember why I took exception to the Sale Sion reference – but, after examining my conscience, like all good Sale Sion girls had to do – all I can come up with is:

    I didn’t want to be tarred with the same brush! (*said in a whiny Catholic boys college who had to share physics/maths lessons with Sion girls and the bitches beat us anyway* voice).

    However, you certainly got me with the “abrasive” taunt. That’s where I learned it! 😆

  26. [A looming stoush between parliamentary Labor party and, the ACTU and unions.]

    Nope a resolved issue. The Federal Govt wears the tax loss, the unions and employers fight over the rest.

  27. [The gold coins weren’t changed in the revamp of the smaller denominations as far as I know, the Kiwis were just smart enough to make their $1/$2 coins the right sizes to begin with, although they had the slight advantage of introducing both coins at the same time.]

    Very fond memories of the introduction of decimal currency. It was great when we discovered at the US Enlisted Mens Clubs at their bases in the Asian region that they had poker machines. These poker machines were nickel and dime machines.

    To our horror we discovered that an Australian 5 cent coin was a superb fit in to an American Dime/10 cent machine.

  28. Good evening all,

    Normally a 24% fall in the gap in TPP% would be a massive result for the ALP (NSW Morgan Phone Poll has gone from 41% gap to 17% gap in favour of Coalition) but in this case, its still not such a great result for the ALP given the headline figure is still 58.5:41.5%…

  29. GW
    The Coalition has a policy of pissing away money on soil carbon in a vandalistic act of rural socialism. Why you guys put up with your country cuzzes is a wonder to me. 99% of soil scientists reckon it is rubbish.
    Mr Abbott, who really, truly believes climate science is crap reckons that the costings of the Coalition 5%/2020 target are hunkey dorey. No credible person agrees with him. But then the Coalition routinely stuffs up its costings.
    Mr Abbott is merely planning to continue what Mr Howard, with Mr Abbott as cabinet minister, did for 11 years on AGW: SFA.
    I wouldn’t mind it so much if their polices are crap. Except that are so blatantly hypocritical about it.
    If you can get a bet on Mr Abbott never achieving 5% before 2020, get onto it. Any odds. It is the safest bet you will ever make.

  30. BTW thanks again for the best wishes everyone.

    I’ll stop posting my scribblings on the subject, though as it will no-doubt drive everyone balmy, including me.

    So….on with the politics……….

  31. ML
    The cup half empty eh? C’mon, don’t spoil our fun. These are the biggest falls in polls for years within the timeframee. I just hope Mr O’Farrell and Mr Baillieu enjoy their All Bran tomorrow.

  32. On PM just now was a ‘report’ on David Murray’s comments re the Carbon Tax. It goes for about 6 minutes. 5 minutes 40 seconds is devoted to him and a supporter of his views. Swanny gets 18 seconds.

  33. N=479 phone poll of NSW state voting intentions
    N=408 phone poll of Vic state voting intentions
    N=202 phone poll of Qld state voting intentions

    …so I ask you: Why the hell didn’t they ask a Federal voting intention question as well????

    Or do you think perhaps Morgan is playing silly buggers and is keeping the result up his sleeve?

  34. Pegasus,

    Any wage negotiations will be undertaken as part of enterprise bargaining between unions and employers.

    The government plays no part.

    Just as workers were not screwed and employers were not sent to the brink when the super rate increased to 9% the same will happen now especially as increments are spread out over 6-7 years.

  35. It occured to me the other day that some of the ‘savings’ identified before the 2010 election by the Opposition were those made by redirecting the remaining BER money.

    Given that that has now all been spent and thus cannot be ‘saved’, I wonder how they’re making up for that shortfall?

  36. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, March 30, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink
    ML
    The cup half empty eh? C’mon, don’t spoil our fun. These are the biggest falls in polls for years within the timeframee.]

    Definitely a significant result, well outside the MOE, but I should point out the previous phone poll was in April 2011 so it was nearly a year ago…

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