Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. bluegreen
    [On Labor. They are stuffed. Whether this poll a little bit out or not, the polling has hardly veered from the coalition on 54-55 2PP for months. It is as solid as polling gets.]
    During that time there was constant sturm and drang over carbon pricing.MRRT,NBN,Rudd etc. Yet amazingly the numbers remained steady. With those out of the way and the sky stubbornly refusing to fall there is no reason why there will not be a drift back to Labor. Tony has only ever had “great big new scares” to offer. What has he left to scare us with ? Apart from the thought of him as PM and Barney as deputy PM.

  2. [As usual @GMegalogenis gives his rationale, thoughtful and balance view of the realpolitik]

    MegaGeorge is one of the very few political Journalists to show what should be a job essential – a fine grip on Australia’s history, inc its political & economic history – and the courage to publish his work in those contexts: the reason he’s now one of the (if not THE) most revered Oz journos.

  3. Victoria

    I don’t buy that he failed spectacularly. But I don’t want to start a Rudd argument here again today.

    They are a ‘bad government’ (your words) because:
    1. they cannot prosecute an argument for why they are implementing change.
    2. they cannot prosecute an argument for why Abbott cannot deliver on his promises and is unfit to be PM.
    3. They cannot explain to the Australian public that our economy has fundamentally changed since 2007 (more than a mining boom) and that credit has dried up and people are saving and not spending, and that this is the new normal.
    4. They cannot use the fittings of government to control the agenda.
    5. They cannot identify issues or policies that will encourage conversation, differentiate themselves from the opposition and make people happy that the ALP are in power.

    I think fundamentally, between Tony Abbott and a post-GFC Australian economy, they haven’t been able to create calm and confidence in their government and in the future.

  4. I have come to the conclusion that after the carbon price is up and running and the tax cuts are in place, the Labor party will change strategy. Until then, it is going to be status quo. I also believe that JG’s name is poison in Qld and some parts of NSW. WA only hold three Labor seats at present and therefore not a big concern as compared to these places. I do not see her popularity improving in these places in the next 18 months. As much as it reviles me, In order for Labor to have success in the short term in these areas, they need to have a male leader.

  5. [Given that some of the more reasonable conservative commentators here are basing their support for the Coalition on the expectation of a Turnbull takeover

    I don’t think they are. I think they always intended to vote Liberal, but just needed to invoke the prospect of a more suitable leader in order to say so publicly.]

    I have always suspected as much.

    Let’s face it, what rational Liberal in their right mind could come out and publicly laud Tony Abbott and his unique leadership style?

    As everyone knows by now, t’s just one brain fart after another. What kind of Lib (or indeed, any kind of political animal) is going willingly accept a situation where they’re forced to wait to get rocked-back onto their intellectual heels by each zephyr emitted by their Glorious Leader, then be forced to furiously avdocate the pungency of the odour or the strength of the smell as some sort of positive to the public in general and their political opponentsin particular?

    That kind of thing takes North Korean style party loyalty.

    They must hate it. But, short of a leadership change, that’s the row they’re wiling to hoe. So they spray a little air-O-zone and throw out a few references to ‘preferring Turnbull’.

    In many ways, I don’t blame them.

  6. [Boerwar
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 9:24 am | Permalink
    b
    I notice that the various members of the conservative commentariat tried to Ruddymuddy the waters immediately after the electorate and that you are following their lead. It would be interesting to see a statistical analysis done of those seats in which Mr Rudd actively helped Labor candidates to see whether there was actually a Rudd factor in the Queensland election.]

    3 of the victorious seats make up part of Rudds fed electorate

  7. BH:

    I live in a state Nationals’ seat, but can’t think of anyone in my circle of acquaintances or friends who thinks Barnaby is anything other than an embarrassment.

    Personally I’ve always thought interviews needed subtitles when he was being interviewed. I have genuine difficulty understanding what he’s saying. I was the same with Pauline Hanson – she was hard to understand.

  8. I agree with Blue green- and furthermore without any reservation, Rudd would have reduced the loss in Queensland. They would have at least been able to form an effective opposition.
    There will be no seats in queensland after the next fed election

  9. Hi Poroti re 153

    Yet amazingly the numbers remained steady. With those out of the way and the sky stubbornly refusing to fall there is no reason why there will not be a drift back to Labor.

    Yes the numbers remain steady, and I would like to hope that there will be a drift back to Labor. What troubles me is that the figures also remained remarkably steady in NSW and Qld – some people got excited over the impact of Bligh’s work during the floods, but in the end it made no difference. That’s why I also tend to think federal Labor needs something more than jst getting things done to break the cycle – don’t know what, and I really doubt any leadership change will now be realistic even if negotiated thru’.

    F

  10. Hi Poroti re 153

    Yet amazingly the numbers remained steady. With those out of the way and the sky stubbornly refusing to fall there is no reason why there will not be a drift back to Labor.

    Yes the numbers remain steady, and I would like to hope that there will be a drift back to Labor. What troubles me is that the figures also remained remarkably steady in NSW and Qld – some people got excited over the impact of Bligh’s work during the floods, but in the end it made no difference. That’s why I also tend to think federal Labor needs something more than jst getting things done to break the cycle – don’t know what, and I really doubt any leadership change will now be realistic even if negotiated thru’.

    F

  11. BH

    Listen to your neighour. He has said it as I have said here . Barnaby has traction. People LIKE him. Labor types from the deep south think he is a joke. They are the ones who are NOT reading the electorate- especially Qld (and the country generally). Barnaby has MUCH more chance of winning an election than Gillard (despite -or perhaps because of, his severe foot in mouth disease).

    Labor types need to get out of their staffer offices and go for a two month stay in a rural centre or spend two months in outer suburbia, working on the shop floor.

    People are sick of smick polished, besuited (or dollied up) young thirty somethings who have never had a blistered hand form work, never struggled to pay the electricity bill (except as a student when daddy would help out), never had to choose between cat food or bread, never had to put off going to the Dr because you do not have $70 to pay), never had to ring the electricity or phone company and get an extension, never had to tell staff that they must wait for wages – or tell a staff member they must go because there is no more money, never had to live with tooth decay because they do not have $1500 for root canal. Never HAS to visit St Vinnies for clothing (rather than it being a trendy outing).

    These are all real problems for the average person out there. Stop pontificating and start listening.

  12. Personally, having read Senator Joyce’s interview I think he did a good job for a politician. He didn’t allow the questioner to lead the interview, stuck to what his audience would’ve been wanting to hear and got through all his talking points. It’s a lot better than what most ALP politicians manage to do in any given interview.

    Of course, it’s hard to see Joyce translating across to a government role, but it could happen over time.

  13. Vic

    Its disgraceful but I think there is some truth to it. A female leader, especially this female leader, is unfairly prejudiced against.

    Another Treasurer would help. I spent yesterday looking through RBA and Treasury tables. The world turned upside in 2009 and the mining boom explanation simplifies it. It is much more to do with the Steven Keen debt de-leveraging than anything else. Debt spending has stopped (margin loans, IPO’s, personal loans, credit cards, business loans) and savings have gone through the roof.

    We have a new post-Howard, post-GFC economy. Swan has failed to tell this story.

  14. Itep

    JG is a smart woman. She will know when the right time to step aside will be. I have some ideas who i believe will be her successor

  15. Hi dareto tread re 164

    I think there’s a lot of truth in what you say, especially amongst people who would otherwise be ALP supporters. I get some of that feeling from relatives who live in Melbourne’s northern suburb – tho’ to be honest they personally are not in a bad way but they are fearful and now disconnected from Labor.

    F

  16. [What do you think of the arguments posited by Andrew Elder as to why the govt will win in 2013?]

    He is my favourite commentator along with Possum.

    I now think he is wrong. He draws on the past to predict the future where the public have turned away from ill-prepared oppositions and voted back in middling-but-safe governments.

    Our economy has changed, the government cant give you things Howardesque each budget time anymore. But Abbott’s pitch is essentially of continuation of these Howard giveaways without the tumult of carbon/mining tax debates.

    The people don’t get that this is not possible anymore. They will learn it under an Abbott government. But they wont learn it in time not to vote for him.

  17. Victria

    You and the rest of the world. Was told last October how it was gunna be. I have a gut feel that Billie will not be the saviour you expect.

  18. [We have a new post-Howard, post-GFC economy. Swan has failed to tell this story.]

    Worse is that the govt keep on mentioning John Howard!

  19. [I have come to the conclusion that after the carbon price is up and running and the tax cuts are in place, the Labor party will change strategy. Until then, it is going to be status quo.]

    Typically the 3 year strategy is part of all governments’ electoral strategy focus: Year 1, policies; year 2, tough budget and policy entrenchment; Year 3, electorate-friendly budget, tidying up loose ends and much public patting of itself on the back.

    The real difference this cycle is Abbott-inflicted black hole into which have been sucked effective Opposition strategies – incisive QT questions across all policy areas, effective policies (even if many are little more than outline), and effective defence of the Oppo’s own policies as superior.

  20. confessions

    victoria and NSW have also had women Premiers. Tasmania has one now.

    I believe JG has a clear understanding of what needs to be done to have a chance at the next election.

  21. bg
    What do you think of the proposition that the centre-left vote is being hamstrung by having two centre-left parties splitting and diminishing the centre-left vote?

  22. DTT

    As you would recall, I was also of the firm belief that changing leaders now would be a disaster for Labor, and I stick by that assessment. I always felt that a change at the appropriate time would occur. Now is not the time to make any changes at all, as much as the msm and the coalition cheersquad want it to be so.

  23. bluegreen:

    In many ways all we can do is look to historical precedent, esp as historical facts often undercut the hysteria we see in our media. I believe it’s entirely reasonable for bloggers/commentators to do this.

    However, I think you underestimate the capacity of the voting public to see through the illogical whimsy of the opposition. Time will tell, of course, and I have been wrong about these things before.

  24. Boerwar,

    I don’t think much of it. The ALP can be environmental and hold some of that vote. They just don’t know how to be.

    After Carr left as Premier in NSW, the NSW Right went to war against his environmental wins and abandoned (or systematically destroyed) that entire agenda. Pretty much lost them the doctors wife vote and the inner city vote in one fell swoop.

  25. I am glad i dont live in USA where people are actual want to stop a more affordable healthcare for the less well-off. STOP OBAMACARE

  26. victoria @ 155

    Hush your mouth! 😉 The whole party needs to close ranks around PM Gillard and focus on implementing good policy. We all need to be spruiking Labor’s positive achievements & policy agendas. Afterall, if you want to get the job done properly, put a woman in charge. 😉

  27. Further to our neighbour’s visit and wise words about Barnaby Joyce, I watched the LL interview a short time ago.

    I can see why said neighbour and his mates are impressed with Joyce’s simple ranting but for me he is still a great big act looking for the nearest vaudeville stage.

  28. Victoria

    Please pull the other one. Now that Rudd is safely dispatched (do the dead walk again?) it is fine for the other roosters to strut their stuff. Billie, Stevie, are the two most likely. I am told that Greg has not got the numbers. If you are referring to simple Simon pppplllllleeeesssse! Mark Butler is too young (new) and in any case is a bit too much of the smick type.

  29. vote1maxine

    JG is doing a great job, but sadly it is not being appreciated by the wider community at all. Spruiking will help, but not in the sunshine state and parts of NSW, and WA. Support in VIC, SA and TAS will not be enough to get them over the line.

  30. C’est moi!

    Finns @185 aren’t the Americans unbelievable, invoking the almighty as defense for their right to for a third of them to be bankrupted by massive health bills incurred in the last year of life.

  31. Maxine

    Get real. If there is just a sniff that Qld will be replicated nationally watch the pollies switch.

    NOTE WELL – Three of the 6 seats Labor won in Qld are in Rudd’s seat. He actively worked for Di Farmer and Anna Bligh. This is not an accident. In fact the territory is hardly Labor heartland at all but still won. Kevin’s skills and popularity helped.

    If Labor wants to win (or avoid decapitation) they would be wise to return to Rudd.

  32. [I also believe that JG’s name is poison in Qld and some parts of NSW. WA only hold three Labor seats at present and therefore not a big concern as compared to these places.]

    victoria – I listened to RN this morning and the interview with the State Secretary of AMWU in Qld. He said that JG’s name is not poison in Qld.

    He also made interesting comments re the electoral system and says he likes the NZ system and would like debate about the system and possible changes. He made disparaging remarks about those who think Labor is finished and also about comments by Rodney Cavalier who he said started bagging Labor the day he resigned from the NSW Parliament.

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