A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).
Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.
So, Mr Joyce reckons Mr Scott is easier to roll than Mr Windsor.
Flat track bully boy?
boerwar
It seems that Joyce wants Scott to retire his seat. Apparently Scott is approaching 69 years. Time to push him to the kerbside!!
v
Mr Scott has as much to contirbute as Mr Joyce.
[Mr Scott has as much to contirbute as Mr Joyce.]
But is far, far less dangerous!
Clive Palmer, seems to be out to prove Wayne Swan’s point:
[“Without you (the media), without Julia Gillard, without the Treasurer, without the Greens raising these things in the Senate, who knows where the attention might have been in the last weeks coming up to the election?” {Palmer} said.]
Palmer throwing his weight around is what has finally made up Drew Hutton’s mind to sue him for defamation:
[Mr Hutton says Mr Palmer thinks he is untouchable.
“This is a leading person in our society; this is a man with immense amount of wealth and immense influence and he is carrying on in this way,” he said.]
So Palmer (if he is telling the truth, which I doubt), feels he can just blurt out whatever he wants to say, defaming people randomly, and then tell us it was all a joke? Hah, hah, he fooled us all… and Clive’s not apologizing. He really does seem to think he’s untouchable. I’d advise Drew Hutton not to sue. Palmer will take great delight in ruining him financially and spiritually. Even if Hutton wins, he loses.
And then there was his victory jig on Queensland election night. Now we know why he was made a living national treasure.
“Oh, we need more characters like Clive,” says Tony Abbott, who then starts out with his “Targets On Foreheads” line, grinning like a Cheshire Cat. When he doesn’t get away with it, he apologizes to the House, like he apologized to the wife of the soldier for saying – about her husband – “Shit happens”, and like he apologized to his party for the Paid Lifestyle Leave (but only after the event). Like he has apologized for shooting off at the mouth a thousand times.
It’s the Catholic naughty schoolboy in him: be cheeky, say what you want… there’s always Confession to help cleanse the soul.
It’s not so much that these types say what they say. It’s that they get away with it, in the current political climate, without much more than a giggle, a nudge and a wink.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-27/drew-hutton-to-sue-clive-palmer/3914194
Can I add Barnarby to post #105 as another right wing raver?
The fact is AGW might start to have an effect on even the less educated as scientists are starting to be blindsided by the speed things are happening. The latest assessment is that we may well see 3 degree or more rises within the next 50 years. I personally think we’re at a tipping point even though I hope to God I’m wrong (and I’m an atheist or at least agnostic). Having SOME kind of strategy that involves taking action may well be seen as positive in 18 months time after more storms, floods, fires and deaths occur and people realise that THEY are not being taxed.
BB
I heard somewhere that GetUp was going to fund the Mr Hutton’s legal costs
Boerwar
Mr Joyce contributes more hot air that is for sure
The man has more front than Myers. Yesterday he tweeted that there should be an open enquiry about honesty etc in regards to Camerons cash for meet and greets.
Will he now call for an open enquiry in to the hacking of smart cards in UK after he bought his way out of the same thing in the US a few years ago by buying the company after it agreed to drop the charges.
I suppose there would be no reason to think that SeweRoo hasn’t got his smelly little fingers all over this;
[Part of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation empire employed computer hacking to undermine the business of its chief TV rival in Britain, according to evidence due to be broadcast by BBC1’s Panorama programme on Monday .
The allegations stem from apparently incriminating emails the programme-makers have obtained, and on-screen descriptions for the first time from two of the people said to be involved, a German hacker and the operator of a pirate website secretly controlled by a Murdoch company.]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/mar/26/news-corp-ondigital-paytv-panorama
Talking to a neighbor yesterday who has absolutely no idea of anything the government has done that could be considered good. Was amazed when I told him investment was at record high levels. He believed Australia international credit rating had gone backwards.
Wondered why the government doesn’t mention any of this.
When the coalition win next year I just hope that by some unseen cosmic force all the ALPs reforms and enhancements evaporate. Leaving the punters with a scorched desolate Liberal Party wasteland. Come to think of it, they deserve Abbott: they really do. That’s my consoling thought. I’m taking 6 months off from following political news commentary and analysis. It’s sucking the life out of me.
Smaug
I mentoned my French dinner guest yesterday. This person is a specialist in paintless dent repairs (ie hailstone damage on cars). His work takes him to the latest big storms. A storm chaser if you will! He has been doing this for 15 years. He believes climate change is occurring at a fast rate. His own observations of the frequency of storms and places were they are now occurring, have led him to this conclusion.
rosemour
Know how you feel. But dont lose hope. Australians have become a bunch of whingers. I have dealt with quite a few people from overseas in the past fortnight. We have it good here, but people are self absorbed idiots
Smaug
[The fact is AGW might start to have an effect on even the less educated as scientists are starting to be blindsided by the speed things are happenin]
I have long believed that in every nation a very large granite monument should be erected and carved into it the names of the politicians who lead the do nothing charge.A monument to stupidity that will last for centuries and will provide future generations with the correct names to curse.
Some interesting articles this morning:
Ted Ballieu walks away from carbon reduction targets:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/baillieu-to-dump-carbon-target/story-e6frg6xf-1226310726110?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAustralianNewsNDM+%28The+Australian+%7C+News+%7C%29
…so I expect he will be referred to as ‘Balliar’ now, and that the Right will be rabbitting on about how he won an election on a lie, and should give us a New Election Now.
And the Greens’ reaction is:
[State Greens MP Greg Barber said repealing the target would have minimal impact.
“It didn’t actually do anything. It was a PR stunt,” he said.]
Peg must be so proud she voted for the Libs and the Greens at the last state election.
Meanwhile…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-26/scientists-may-have-underestimated-climate-change/3913288/?site=melbourne
[A new study suggests climate scientists may have underestimated the effect of greenhouse gases, with global temperatures now predicted to rise by between 1.4 and 3 degrees Celsius by 2050.]
And a truly silly article:
http://t.co/3pP4s3i9
The economy is going gangbusters! We’re all doomed!!!
Morning Bludgers,
[108 victoria
Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 8:20 am | Permalink
BB
I heard somewhere that GetUp was going to fund the Mr Hutton’s legal costs]
Good. Clive is one so-called ‘national treasure’ I’d like to see plundered in a decent damages claim.
The disconnect between polling organizations is appalling.
According to Essential, the punters are steady on about 54-46, and have been for some time, with one recent blip excepted.
According to Newspoll, they are, fortnightly, running from one side of the ship to the other in their hundreds of thousands, tipping it this way one day, and that way the other.
Each Newspoll is treated as definitive, and is analysed as such.
I am reminded of the way stock market analysts try to make sense of the daily fluctuations in the ASX index. Their job is not to predict or analyse real corporarte performance. It is to predict how other analysts will predict, and then to predict how we’ll all react.
So today, Peter van Onselen tells us that “should end debate about whether Queensland Labor’s problems extend to the federal party.”
His dataset is just one Newspoll. A snap shot taken mid way in the race is being used to predict the finish, 18 months hence.
Crazy.
Bring back Dennis Shanahan, I say. All is forgiven! At least there was method to his madness. In van Onselen’s case there is only madness.
zoomster
Silly indeed. The economy is going well, but too bad it will end in a bust. Fair dinkum!!!!
The Finnigans
On John Rice and his comments praising the introduction of a ‘Carbon Tax’ – careful how you describe him if you are going to add to your ‘BISONS’.
Despite the headlines Mr Rice is not ‘Chairman’ of GE. He is one of 39 people described as ‘Executive Leaders’ of GE – four of those have the title ‘Vice Chairman GE’. His position does not place him on the company board.
http://www.ge.com/company/leadership/index.html
BB
Dont bother with the Oz hacks. What do they want Labor to do in light of the latest poll? Run around like headless chooks!!!
Given that some of the more reasonable conservative commentators here are basing their support for the Coalition on the expectation of a Turnbull takeover, we can assume that there are a number of people who tell pollsters they’re voting Liberal on the same premise.
It will be interesting to see what happens to those votes when we get closer to an election and it becomes obvious that Turnbull won’t be leader.
Similarly, I expect that some of those who are sulking because Rudd isn’t leader will come back to Labor when push comes to shove, too.
zoomster
We have Barnaby looking for a lower house seat so he can become Deputy PM. There is no chance that Turnbull is going to get a look in, with the Nats entrenching themselves within the coalition. Wonder when the small libs are going to revolt??
Did anyone see both Brandis and Graeme Morris say that the Coalition was strongly inclined to support the General Motors subsidy?
Good morning, Bludgers.
Newspoll, with MoE taken into account, still fairly stable.
Australian electors have a long history of hedging their electoral bets: states returning governments different from the Fed government. The practice has its origin in different types of Industrial Courts’ wage “awards”, State and Federal, and an ability, esp in the postwar period, of being able to shift at least some of the awards in case, as happened, certainly in Queensland and (from memory) in other states.
During the Menzies Era, Federal Awards were “lousier” than most States’, so the desired shift was into the better Stste Awards, except under specific Premiers: in Queensland under NCC/ Grouper (later QLP) Premier Gair, whose split from the ALP occurred when he refused to award Q workers other states’ 4 wks annual leave & other entitlements. There was a short period (around 1966) when L-CP held power in all states as well as Federally. but it was rare enough for a great deal of speculation about its import for L-CP and ALP – much (if not most) of which was of the face, meet eggs variety.
During Q’s Bjelke-Petersen era, shifting workers, even sections of a union, esp in DLP-controlled unions eg Federated Clerks’ (predominantly female & notoriously the worst paid union) into Federal Awards, even across unions into other unions, effectively quarantined vulnerable workers from Joh’s wrath.
Although union membership has declined markedly, and the Award system changed radically, hedging one’s bets Fed/ State voting patterns haven’t: note how long the Howard government faces wall-to-wall state ALP governments. BTW: I don’t recall any trashing brand Liberal commentary around, even in the short period when Q State Libs were reduced to (from memory) 3 seats.
BTW:
[‘Climate scientist warns of heatwave surge.’ The report is straight down the line science reporting. The news for the inhabitants of the South-west is not good, BTW: things are probably going to get hotter, faster and more furiously than previously predicted.]
So? … Never forget that, from 1787 (with England still in the grip of the Little Ice Age and still suffering the cold dark wet/snowy winters, in part made worse by the huge volcanic explosion earlier that decade) and before the horror winter of 1814, the UK shipped humans, other mammals and poultry into the East of a Continent just entering the Foundation Drought.
Did they all die of the sort of heat the UK hadn’t experienced since Vikings were the unstoppable enemy (& probably not even then)? And, hey! No aircon! Just a short trip to harbours & the ocean.
Australia’s White settlement/ invasion, even in the cold postwar period & its killer winters, is testament to animal and plant adaptability to very sudden and significant rises in temperature and rainfall.
Worry about atmospheric pollution (the biggest problem) and sea-levels – though they’ve changed often, even in the last 10,000 years (if they hadn’t, UK would still be geographically well attached to Europe) – but bin the hyperbole over sudden dramatic rises in temperature.
This nation’s white settlement reality is that we survived – indeed thrived in – sudden shifts of 10 C+ in less than a year (and c6 weeks for most of C20 N European migrants)… and UK temperature & climate records for the whole period (& the previous century: it was commissioned in 1675 by King Charles II) were kept by Greenwich Observatory staff.
[And a truly silly article:
http://t.co/3pP4s3i9
The economy is going gangbusters! We’re all doomed!!!]
It’s a re-hash of the old boom-and-bust scenario, asking what’s gonna happen when the mmining boom eventually peters-out. He essentially relies on historical examples (post WW1 boom, Korean War boom etc).
Rather odd for Tim Colebatch. He used to be pretty good.
What he hasn’t factored-in in this one is it’s driver: China’s modernisation. When you set-out to lift nearly 20% of the world’s population (that’s 1.3 billion comrades) from grinding peasant poverty to essentially a modern urban lower middle class lifestye as fast as possible, it’s a gargantuan task.
Orders of magnitude greater than anything ever attempted before. Rebuilding europe after WW1 and WW2 was a nothing, compared to this.
Sure, it will run out of gas eventually. But probably not in the lifetime of anyone posting here. It’s such a massive, massive job.
If there are any of those here that say China is doing nothing re carbon emissions and Australia’s actions irrelavent watch and learn. Their trial from 2013 of our emission trading system involves 250 million people !!
[China closely monitors Australia’s carbon policy]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-09/china-closely-monitors-australias-carbon-policy/2879382
PS: Plz excuse errors; the mad eyes can’t keep keyboard or print still, hence my dearth of posts.
Transcript of Barnaby’s Lateline interview now up:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2012/s3464254.htm
OPT
[ ‘Climate scientist warns of heatwave surge.’ The report is straight down the line science reporting. The news for the inhabitants of the South-west is not good, BTW: things are probably going to get hotter, faster and more furiously than previously predicted.
So?]
Joke, Joyce, right?
Heat waves have killed tens of thousands in Europe, Eurasia and North America in recent years and in Australia they kill more people than are killed in bushfires and floods combined.
BTW, did you notice that your insurance premiums got a substantial boost this year? It is because the companies are struggling to make a quid in the midst of one unprecedented weather event after another.
smithe
Colebatch also obviously had trouble finding anyone who actually supported his position, given that those he quotes see it as a very long term problem (the earliest anyone’s prepared to go for is at least five years) and he’s working on the assumption that the government is doing nothing to prepare for the possibility.
I would have thought that the MRRT and the determination to get the budget into surplus (which is really code for keeping costs under control) are both signs that the government is trying to avoid a potential Ireland scenario.
[Given that some of the more reasonable conservative commentators here are basing their support for the Coalition on the expectation of a Turnbull takeover]
I don’t think they are. I think they always intended to vote Liberal, but just needed to invoke the prospect of a more suitable leader in order to say so publicly.
Boerwar:
It’s interesting that Barnaby has changed tack in his quest for a HoR seat. Last year he was telling us that it made sense for him to contest NE because that’s where he grew up. But now he says it’s more sensible for him to go for Maranoa because it’s in his Senate ‘electorate’.
Perhaps whatever the Nationals’ equivalent of a preselections committee is in NE has told him some uncomfortable truths?
confessions
Agreed. Abbott is now firmly embedded with the Nats. JBishop, JHockey, ARobb, MTurnbull are not happy campers, but because they see victory on the horizon, they will put up and shut up for now.
More excellent stuff on Al Jazerra:
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/03/2012325104534414953.html
confessions
Easier for Barnaby to knock off Scott than Windsor. Hope whatever he does causes ructions. It could not happen to a nicer bunch
[Bring back Dennis Shanahan, I say. All is forgiven! At least there was method to his madness. In van Onselen’s case there is only madness.]
Louise Yaxley ABC political correspondent is running the v Onsalen line on this poll, unexpurgated, on every radio news broadcast….’situation for Labor just as bad QLD’.. blah, blah, blah.
Speaking of Dennis Shanahan , where is he? Has he been shafted or is he sick, must be close to a month now since last heard from?
Confessions I think you are right about commentators like Mod Lib are just saying they are basing their vote on Turnbull coming back, don’t think that is true! ML seems to be getting more rabid each post
As usual @GMegalogenis gives his rationale, thoughtful and balance view of the realpolitik –
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnews%2Fopinion%2Ffederal-state-divide-offers-gillard-some-hope%2Fstory-e6frg7ex-1226310714446&ei=CMlwT7GfHObkmAXjzqiSBg&usg=AFQjCNGTcRJwtubfFN8PDY916OyHVyMRKQ
victoria:
Windsor had a huge personal vote at the last election, with something like 60% PV. That may have taken a hit since then, but I reckon he’d relish the opportunity to take on Barnaby!
Much easier for Barnaby to take an already-safe Nats seat.
[Agreed. Abbott is now firmly embedded with the Nats. JBishop, JHockey, ARobb, MTurnbull are not happy campers, but because they see victory on the horizon, they will put up and shut up for now.]
Seems a perfectly reasonable summary to me.
On Labor. They are stuffed. Whether this poll a little bit out or not, the polling has hardly veered from the coalition on 54-55 2PP for months. It is as solid as polling gets.
The views here on PB are not grounded in reality. The public are not suddenly going to come to their senses. Its not all about an evil media. They are not a great government getting a bad run. As bad as Tony Abbott is the government is still going to lose solidly.
The government had a chance to start again with Rudd. But they chose to kill plan B to re-embrace a failed plan-A.
Hmmm
Barry O’Farrell really wants Barnaby to stay in QLD!
[Barry O’Farrell @barryofarrell
hope Qld LNP follow up last Saturday’s success by backing @Barnaby_Joyce for that Federal lower house seat]
bluegreen
Why would Labor do better with Rudd. He failed spectacularly As PM. Things are now getting done. Why is this a bad govt?
Hmmm
Barry O’Farrell really wants Barnaby to stay in QLD!
[Barry O’Farrell @barryofarrell
hope Qld LNP follow up last Saturday’s success by backing @Barnaby_Joyce for that Federal lower house seat]
b
I notice that the various members of the conservative commentariat tried to Ruddymuddy the waters immediately after the electorate and that you are following their lead. It would be interesting to see a statistical analysis done of those seats in which Mr Rudd actively helped Labor candidates to see whether there was actually a Rudd factor in the Queensland election.
chiz, immediately after the election…
[It’s a re-hash of the old boom-and-bust scenario, asking what’s gonna happen when the mmining boom eventually peters-out. He essentially relies on historical examples (post WW1 boom, Korean War boom etc).]
If you don’t believe that this boom will bust in your (& v prob in my) lifetime, you have not been listening to Treasurer Swan, who keeps reminding us that it will, sooner or later, go bust! What tends to be ignored is that much of the government’s economic strategy aims to mitigate the bust’s impact.
As a commodities-based economy (since Napoleonic wars closed access to V fashionable fine merino wool from Saxony & Spain, creating a huge market for our fine merino wool) we survived the GFC bust for 4 main reasons:
* high commodity prices;
* financial reforms introduced by the Hawke, Keating & Howard governments, limiting the idiocy that created the GFC;
* the total pool of huge sovereign wealth funds (aka Fed & State PS Superannuation) + private super, esp the well-managed & performing Industry Super Funds, which underpins our economy
* limiting GFC fallout through balanced & rational measures to minimise job loses, esp in key wholesale-retail and construction sectors, where massive job losses-> huge “domino falls” in income tax revenue + huge rises in social service benefits … a no brainer you’d think!
The reason business quietly backs the MRRT is that rise in % of superannuation = major increases in sovereign wealth funds = increase in economic security, inc ability to “ride” commodity price crashes = inc the ability to borrow with the best possible conditions = ability to keep the economy strong in difficult times.
Pretty sure Shanahan is sick
Caught a snatch of half heard talk somewhere that seemed to imply he was “on the mend”.
[Can I add Barnarby to post #105 as another right wing raver?]
A fairly close neighbour called in early this morning and told us that Barnaby Joyce was brilliant on Lateline last night and said everything that Australians are feeling. He said that Joyce doesn’t talk in pollie speak like the Labor mob and that he makes sense for ‘ordinary people’. He said everyone is sick of the Chinese buying up everything so Joyce is the bloke to stand up for us and he should be leader when the Opposition takes over.
We thought our neighbour was joking but turns out he was deadly serious and said until Labor learns that people listen to Joyce and others like him they’ve got no chance of winning anything. Joyce does not lie like Gillard!!
So there you go ….. Barnaby is gonna win for all of us. I’m so excited I can hardly breathe
BW
Not taking sides, but I think I read the swing to LNP in states seats which form part of Griffith was 9.5% as against state average of 16%
DTT
apparently Nikki Savva said that Shamas had a health scare but he was on the mend