Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. Declaration:

    I am a member of the committee with “banning power” on AFV. To date I have never exercised that power, although I came close once.

    I have also told Frank that who gets banned and who stays is up to him. It’s his house, therefore his rules.

    Since I have my own blog to play with now*, I will continue to exercise a “hands-off” approach to AFV, apart from making the occassional post there when I have something to contribute to whatever is being discussed**. What Frank does on his site is up to him, not me.

    * BTW, the latest post at The Daily Derp is a BBC documentary about a team of unsung heroes of Word War II – The Geeks That Defeated Hitler.

    ** Or for shameless self promotions for The Daily Derp ( 😉 ). And yes, i will continue these shameless self promotions here, there and everywhere until the site owners (William, Frank, whoever) tell me to stop, as I believe they may be of interest to other vistors to these sites.

  2. WeWantPaul@1003

    [ It would be a massive vote winner. ]

    For who?

    The Liberal party won’t do it because it would disadvantage their rich mates in the superannuation industry.

    The Labor party won’t do it because it would disadvantage anyone without a ‘super’ income.

    The Greens? I guess they might be lunatic enough to try it. But the regulation required and the rorting that would inevitably result would make everyone a loser.

    I think it’s a non-starter.

  3. Yeah, but gusface to get banned here you have engage in egregious conduct, over at AFV you just have to vibrate Frank’s hairtrigger th merest soupcon.

    And MySay was banned. She said she wasn’t going to pist, so Frank made sure she didn’t change her mind – he just confirmed it.

    Methinks Frank needs a good dose of anger management training. Or maybe not – he does manage to be so angry, so well

  4. poroti

    It looked more like a blog banning event.

    BTW, why were the Spanish subtitles written backwards? Do spaniards sit inside their laptops when watching utube?

  5. BH 1044

    Thanks for your encouragement and understanding. It helps, I can assure you.

    But I won’t be relaxing. Tonight I received a call to arms for the major Brisbane City Council election (from whence Newman came) at the end of April. So it’s back to chasing postal votes, street stalls, letter boxing etc.

    Just to show how arrogant Newman is, today he announced the appointment of one of his Liberal councillors as the new Director General of Transport.

    At the same time, Anna Bligh’s husband, a loyal public servant for over 30 years serving governments of all persuasions, was informed that he could only keep his job in the Environment Department provided he dismantles the carbon pricing policies etc. Newman did not directly inform him of this but mentioned it a press conference.

    Of course, this is all designed to force him out.

  6. mm
    Would that industry consolidatiob be a false economy? Wouldn’t lots of smaller funds be more agile in a rapidly changing and ever-more volatile investment landscape.

  7. [thinking further

    to be banned at both PB and AFV must rank as some sort of achievement]

    I think kezza2 may have briefly made it to this particular summit

  8. Dear Boerwar @ 998

    Thank you for your response.

    Most of my life i was a rusted on Labo(u)r voter (never liked the USA spelling).

    I still support them vis-a-vis the Libs, of course but the last decade I almost vote randomly: have voted communist, independent, greens, alp etc).

    The last ALP leader that spoke to me about a vision of what it meant to be “Australian” was Paul Keating even though I opposed his privatisation of public assets like the Commonwealth Bank and still think it was wrong.

    The current PM has never spoken about what it is to be Australian. Maybe no current Australian politicians is able to articulate the Australian identity because they have no understanding or interest in it. Imagine Abbott doing it???

    I have always been a strong Australian nationalist and social democrat. I am an old man now and I do admit I find it very hard to adapt to the Americanisation of Australia (the violent language, superficiality, poor language), but i assume that means I am out of touch.

    In the 80’s of the last century I was so confident that Australia would be the alternative to old Europe and extreme America (finally realising the nationalist movement in the late 19th century, Bulletin, Paterson etc) …. but sadly it has not transpired.

    To me ,both major parties are pedestrian, unimaginative, fierce market-worshippers and unthinking American toadies. I know both parties are mesmerised by the rule of the financiers but it will not last though I have no idea when their destructive reign will end. I assume when the USA looses it imperial dominance.

    I have always had a passion for this land but I am sad to say I have little passion anymore for this “nation”.

    It is sad to live among a people that has very little understanding of or care for their history, traditions or the extraordinary land in which they live. I know there are many great exceptions to that negative understanding.

  9. [ feeney
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 9:35 pm | Permalink
    BH 977

    You make some good points there. It’s a long day working under those circumstances, and particularly sickening having to watch the votes being counted and the Liberal scrutineers standing there with smirks on their faces.]

    BH, feeny, I went through the same thing at Marrickville, well handing out the HTVs, for Albo’s wife, Carmel Tebbutt. I begged-off on the scrutineering and headed for the boozer instead.

    At least we had the satisfaction of holding onto that seat in a night of disasters.

    As for BOF’s performance, sure the Tory TPP lead hasn’t changed much, but his approval rating has taken somewhat of a kicking. His agenda hasn’t started to filter through yet, but it will. People are definitley getting a bit antsy at lack of any visible improvements and the constant Industrial warfare.

    Give it time, comrades, give it time.

  10. boerwar. yes you would think so. however smaller funds can also suffer from poorer governance. not always but sometimes.

    the major hurdle to super fund mergers is usually ego of one of the executives involved or form members of the trustee board. both unionists and employer groups see these positions as a nice gravy train and want to hang onto them.

  11. Feeney, are you a member of the ALP up here in QLD?

    I’m joining up this week. I’m sure I’ll be helping out on election day for council.

  12. [So, your whole marriage was based on deception?]

    Boerwar – not the whole 54 years. Just the occasions when we girls had a late lunch and a few too many wines with it. The flies in the ointment were our darn kids who were too smart for their own good sometimes – or is that their mother’s good!

  13. [I was almost banned once near the start. And it was for stating a fact that was true. ]

    Dio,

    I’m having trouble with the concept of a fact that is true.

  14. swamprat. unfortunately i have come to the same conclusion much earlier in life. the change in ‘Australian character’ has been quite marked in the past 25 years. and its not the influx of new Australians that has created the change. i see the change mostly in the old style anglo saxon Australian.

  15. Boerwar
    [BTW, why were the Spanish subtitles written backwards?]
    Could be because we are down under ? 🙂 Trivia.The red head is an Aussie and the writer of it all is a kiwi (pomgolian born tho)

  16. Has the opposition blamed Rio’s decision to consider selling its Argyle diamond mine on the MRRT yet?

    Wouldn’t surprise me if they had.

  17. [Just to show how arrogant Newman is, today he announced the appointment of one of his Liberal councillors as the new Director General of Transport.

    At the same time, Anna Bligh’s husband, a loyal public servant for over 30 years serving governments of all persuasions, was informed that he could only keep his job in the Environment Department provided he dismantles the carbon pricing policies etc. Newman did not directly inform him of this but mentioned it a press conference.

    Of course, this is all designed to force him out.]

    feeney – We all saw that and discussed it here earlier today. It is petty and vengeful but it will be that arrogance and pettiness which will do Newman in if he is not careful.

    Good luck with the BCC elections. Have any Labor candidates got a chance now that the LNP is leading the State?

  18. [ I have just gone through last Saturday’s massacre, having worked from 7am to 8pm at my polling booth, and it’s not very pleasant watching the massacre occur as you scrutineer the votes being counted. ]

    feeney,

    You did your best. That’s all that can be asked. Rest, take stock, fight on …

    Because of my recent change of circumstances, I was contemplating
    a move to Queensland. Warmer climes, good for the old knees, all that …

    But, no longer an option. Don’t like dictatorships.

    My quest now is to find a warm, safe haven. Victoria is generally cold. Tassie always chills the blood. NT is full of utes. And ute drivers. WA has big holes and, probably, lots of big utes.

    Is South Australia safe?

  19. I handed out HTV cards for the Greens in 2007 and the next one and while waiting for my Greens HTV cards to turn up , i grabbed some Labor HTV cards and handed them out. I got on well with the Labor crew at my local school gate and she stood in my spot on the other side of the gate while i went to vote, to stop those slimy Fiberals pinching my spot. When the Labor guy dropped in to see how things were going for his team , i spoke to him for about 1/2 hour. He hid behind me when i had a angry voter try to up me about taking his guns off him ? I told him Howard done that, and that i was a gun owner too and his wife agreed with me about Howard. I had a great day shooting down Liberal lies and eating Labor made Lamintons .

  20. [I went through the same thing at Marrickville, well handing out the HTVs, for Albo’s wife, Carmel Tebbutt. I begged-off on the scrutineering and headed for the boozer instead.]

    Smithe – at least you got Carmel up. We got thrashed here and OH and I couldn’t head for the Pub because the place was full of celebrating National Party folk. We came home and had a quiet one and belted the dog instead …. nah, I joke – I’m actually coming back as one of our spoiled mutts.

  21. Dear middle man @ 1067

    Thank you for your response.

    I am an old style Australian, indeed 7th generation as I have many ancestors as convicts from 1792, although i am mostly scots-irish, for the sake of discussion I suppose i am an “old style anglo-saxon” lol.

    I assume you mean the change is in the current younger generations?

    I assume it is because of 4 decades of American TV. They begin to not only talk like but worst think in that awful black and white view of the world.

    It is why I predict that right wingers will become (are) the new “natural” rulers of Australia.

  22. confessions

    [Has the opposition blamed Rio’s decision to consider selling its Argyle diamond mine on the MRRT yet?]
    Waaay back the mine was on the verge of being closed down when it came down to open cut or underground. It had become marginal. So no surprise there if, as Sandgropers call it, Club Argyle closes down.It was expected to be years ago.

  23. a question for ALP members. how far can a non-aligned and non-affiliated member go regarding standing for pre-selection etc.

    i’m a lifetime voter but the only union i know is rugby. the perception of union control is off putting for a ‘shiny bum’ like me.

  24. swamprat

    Thank you for that thoughtful post. I have just finished reading ‘A Wild History – Life and Death on the Victoria River Frontier’ by Darrell Lewis. Henry Reynolds says of it,’It is a story with which every Australian should become familiar.’ I reckon Mr Reynolds is right. It is a good read written by a good storyteller who knows that country and those people like the back of his hand.

    I bought it because I know the author, know some of the Victoria River country intimately well, and lived fior three years with the children whose parents and grandparents had been massacred and driven off their country. ‘Shot like crows.’

    Many of them are named as sources for the book. Nearly all of them are now passed on.

    Reading the book has confirmed many of the stories I was told then. But we were in the Vic River country at a time of remarkable hope and change. Many of the dreams have come to pass. But a major achievement is that the Vic River nations have survived and prospered, albeit with a whole new suite of problems. In the 1940’s their numbers were still going backwards.

    It has been an opportunity to reflect on the enormous changes that have happened within the space of 40 years.

    As I get older I have to keep reminding myself that the good old days were often not that good at all. We lived without sewerage, without running water and with one hour of electricity in a caravan with a baby and a toddler in that country. The Indigenous people had no housing – some tin sheds. It was utter poverty. But they had survived being shot like crows. They had survived being hunted off the stations. They were moulding a future. Very few of the changes they, or we, envisaged have come to pass. Different realities have intervened.

    I think where I am getting at is that things might well get better in Australia. We don’t know. AGW does not look good. But it is worth plugging away at making it better than it might otherwise have been. I tell myself, now that I have three grandsons who will almost certainly live to see the oceans up by a metre, that I am doing it for them. But I was doing it before them, so that can’t be entirely true.

    I guess hope dies hard. One thing is for sure, I have no intention of succumbing to elderly bitterness or hopelessness. I’ll keep plugging away while I can.

  25. Swamprat
    [The last ALP leader that spoke to me about a vision of what it meant to be “Australian” was Paul Keating even though I opposed his privatisation of public assets like the Commonwealth Bank and still think it was wrong.]
    Can you articulate what Keating’s vision of what it meant to be ‘Australian’?

  26. I think the media is the vital media these days.

    There is no centre or left newspaper, TV station nor radio in Australia. It is extraordinary that the centre or left has never been able to establish a media presence. So stupid. Even though they are in Government, the ABC has become feral.

    The internet stuff is not yet the answer.

  27. swamprat. i get what you mean by suggesting you’re not quite ‘anglo saxon’ lol. shall i say anglo saxon or celt origins?

    i recall a child in the late seventies and eigthies that Australians didnt really wave their flag. i used to actually wonder where one would go to get a flag! now you can get a tattoo or some jocks of the very same thing! futhermore we prided ourselves on not being flag waving morons… but alas morons we have become.

  28. [a question for ALP members. how far can a non-aligned and non-affiliated member go regarding standing for pre-selection etc.]

    I’d love some feedback from ‘those in the know’ on this topic as well. Do you have to be a unionised, factional warrior to get a nomination for a winnable seat?

    Would other members be suspicious of someone with a lot of private sector experience?

  29. [Damn your nepotism. If it was not your blog you would have not been able to ban yourself !!]

    poroti, i have decided to ban myself

  30. [gusface
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 10:08 pm | Permalink
    anyone who wants to blog on AFV can

    just reapply if you were accidentally deleted from the contributors list]

    Even me Gussie?

    🙂

  31. [ middle man
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 10:06 pm | Permalink
    swamprat. unfortunately i have come to the same conclusion much earlier in life. the change in ‘Australian character’ has been quite marked in the past 25 years. and its not the influx of new Australians that has created the change. i see the change mostly in the old style anglo saxon Australian.]

    Agreed fellas. And it’s not a change for the better, either.

    People have been suckered into the false belief that they can somehow have everyhting their little hearts desire now, or with little or no work. They borrow far beyond their means and cry ‘poor me’ when the power bill comes rolling-in.

    And when they get their tits in the wringer, it’s always somehow the Gubbermint’s fault.

    I suppose, in a bizarre sort of way after that lost decade of Howard’s handouts and middle class welfare, they may just have a legitimate gripe on that point, too.

    They’ve been conditioned into a false sense of entitlement.

    Their taxes are now no longer considered to be something paid to the Government for for the commom good, for the benefit of the provision and maintenance of a civil society, but a sort of as a sort piggy-bank deposit which may be accessed to meet their own needs, whenever their lifestyle requires (ie, whenever aspirational desire exceeds means to pay).

    It’s standing our traditional view of the role of Government on it’s head.

  32. Hi Swamprat re 1060

    It is sad to live among a people that has very little understanding of or care for their history, traditions or the extraordinary land in which they live.

    In the early 1990’s I worked in admin in a Uni faculty of education; several academics were working on new subject curriculums and I noticed one change was to drop the word “history” in favour of something like “texts and traditions”. When I asked why, the answer was that “history” was in effective a politically incorrect term, insufficiently inclusive.

    Last month the Age printed an article on the decline of Australian history in schools and Uni’s. I’m afraid I now think of what I was told 20 years ago as the danger of political correctness achieving the opposite of what was intended.

    F

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