Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. [How else would you be able to value the actual benefit you are getting? Look at it simply – if you used your super instead of a 100% mortgage, then the benefit you are getting it whatever rent you would expect to get from the same amount of money invested in an equivalent rental property. If you don’t then pay that into your super, you are effectively withdrawing benefits from your super that you are not supposed to be entitled to until you retire.

    Yes, you could cap this, but at what? Say you capped it at $500k – then you are significantly advantaging anyone who has $500k in super, as well as owning a house worth at least that much. Or put it another way – you are disadvantaging anyone who does not have both these things – i.e. most people!

    Unless you work for a superfund I don’t think you are looking at this correctly.

    There are all sorts of tools you could apply to phase it in, but yes someone on a higher income is probably going to do a bit better out of it than someone on a lower income.

    You could even do calculations to calculate in the saved interest / nominal rent into the preserved portion of the home.

    Govt is much better off so long as I can’t take advantage of the preserved portion of my home at retirement. Currently I pay my super useless morons charge me a massive fee and then lose 1/2 my money every third year. Even without rent my home has been a much better investment over the last 10 years.

    The very wealthy already benefit disproportionately from super so I don’t see how this is a different or new issue.

    It would be a massive vote winner.

  2. gusface

    [frank sometimes is a tad exuberant in his moderation]
    All cool .After all, over here Frank “sometimes is a tad exuberant in his comments” 😉 His blog his rules. Same as Wilbo.

  3. Thanks Victoria
    [You miss the point RO is making me thinks. Australians are not seeing the forest for the trees at the moment. Whinging about their current lot in life. People will only realise they are being screwed over, long after the dust settles]

    Oh so that’s what he meant. Coulda fooled me. There was more whingeing in his rant than I’ve ever come across among the populace

  4. Boerwar

    No parties are fighting within the centre left.

    The policies of the Greens and Labor are light years apart.

    Other than the fact that the Greens are closer to Labor than the Liberals, no other connection between them should be made.

    Sheezus it’s like an ex lover you can’t get rid of 😆

  5. BW for all it’s many faults The Grauniad still creates a generous space for robust critique of the UK Tories. Something sadly missing in Oz, but I suspect our blogs and social media are superior and go some way to filling the gap. I’ve noticed of late I look to PB and other blogs for political commentary rather than The Age or Aunty, precisely because they rarely show any sense of balance or fairness. As an earlier comment on here showed, a positive story on the Prime Minister of Australia is itself now newsworthy. Quite bizarre.

  6. [Time to tell these overblown f’wits that if they want the horse’s head, they take the horse’s arse. If they really think that they won’t get swallowed by the Lowys at the shopping centre or by Gina and Clive down the mines or that Jamie Packer will make sure they win at Crown and that they really do belong at the king table then go ahead. Take the Abbott bribes. Pick yourself up a nanny. Borrow that extra three hundred thousand because it would be a shame to have to wait for those extra bedrooms. Get into that franchise that will quadruple your money in two years. But don’t come crying when the rents get too high, or they want a sixteen hour shift in forty degree heat in the middle of nowhere at the base rate, or you can’t afford to feed the kids because your wages are at the bottom of a machine in the Legends Bar at your local rissole and there was no one around to stop you doing it.]

    Oh roy, what can I say. I know where you’re coming from.

    Brilliantly done.

    It’s almost tempting to do it, isn’t it? I mean, let ’em stew for a bit in that rich creamy aspirational Tory sauce. They’ll soon come back to earth with their arses on fire.

    Almost tempting I say…But somehow I still feel we just can’t let that happen to the poor schmucks.

    I’s not their fault that they’re dumb as dogshit and twice as malleable in the hands of an expert shit-moulder like Abbott.

    Isn’t it a fundamental article of labor values that we have an obligation to look after people who can’t help themselves? (Even if their inability to do so is a vile combination of greed and stupidity: That patented hand-rolled Tory Brown-Choclate Aspirational Log).

    It’ not their fault. They’ve been played by experts.

  7. BH 977

    You make some good points there. It’s a long day working under those circumstances, and particularly sickening having to watch the votes being counted and the Liberal scrutineers standing there with smirks on their faces.

    As to the leadership, I don’t particularly care if it is Rudd or not. I just know for sure and certain, at least in QLD, Federal Labor is doomed.

    I have nothing against Julia personally. It’s just that…….oh goodness, I don’t know. I just give up!! I’m tired of politics. The only thing keeping me going is my contempt for Abbott!!

  8. the reason market rate rent would need to be paid is a little thing called The Sole Purpose Test.

    so let’s say you put your super into owning your home.. what “cash” do you use to fund your private pension? because that is ultimately what super is for. to reduce the burden on the govt pension.

  9. [BB

    it’s the ice pick you want to keep an eye out for]

    Was it an ice pick? Forgive my unsoundness on ex-territorial executions. No wonder I was banned at F’s.

  10. i cant confirm but news from the council suggests my say et al may have their bans lifted

    of course the existing bans stay for those so proscribed

    unaminity is unaminity

  11. While most people (small business owners, miners) aren’t like those described in RO’s post… he’s hit the nail on the head in describing a small section of the population out there.

    Trust me; they exist and they vote.

  12. Your nan had it right, confessions. It needs to be done properly this time.

    BTW my mother in law taught me a good one when I was first married. She said if I was late home to slice up an onion and get the smell wafting through. OH (her son, mind you) would think that dinner wasn’t far away. I looked at her in a different light after that one. It works, too.

  13. g

    [its good to sort the embers and snake oils from the peeps]

    I have no idea what you are talking about.

    I have been happy that Frank has a place where like-minded people can discuss things. I had thought that it is a strength of the internet that this can happen at all. Good. But I will say that I have often gone to the defence of mysay over the years often against people whom I thought at the time were simply being nasty bastards. I did so because I thought and think that mysay is genuine and honest. I will continue to defend mysay. The thought that, even on an interim basis, she has been banned is, to me, quite simply absurd.

  14. drake,
    I am going to start a blog, ban everyone else and then myself. Then at least i won’t be alone.

  15. I’ve been away all day, so pre-emptive apologies for anything that has or hasn’t happened. I see from a quick whiz through the currrent page that everyone’s going on about Frank. That’s nice.

  16. all this bollocks about bans is why many chuckle at the idea of ‘new media’ completely supplanting ‘old media’…

  17. Roy Orbison,

    [“Roy Orbison, the quote that Ruawake mentioned earlier is right towards the end of this audio clip.”

    It says nothing of the kind. The figure of 50% is not on the audio and it’s not on the transcript. Stop making shit up. You’re doing exactly what you are accusing the Liberals of. ]

    YOU’RE A NASTY PIECE OF BUSINESS AREN’T YOU?

    I never said that what he said was word correct. I only said that the quote he was referring to was near the end of the clip.

    And what have I accused the Liberals of?

    Quite a precious little Conservative, aren’t you?

  18. [I’m thinking of starting up a blog JUST so I can ban you and Finns. ]

    I dont have a blog but i have already banned Diog 👿

    btw: contrary to popular rumour, My Say has not been banned at AFV

  19. Centre

    [Boerwar

    No parties are fighting within the centre left.

    The policies of the Greens and Labor are light years apart.

    Other than the fact that the Greens are closer to Labor than the Liberals, no other connection between them should be made.

    Sheezus it’s like an ex lover you can’t get rid of :lol:]

    Kiss me, Do!

    [Other than the fact that the Greens are closer to Labor than the Liberals, no other connection between them should be made.]

    There’s your starting point.

  20. [Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 9:32 pm | Permalink
    gus

    frank has banned MOI- more than once

    I’m thinking of starting up a blog JUST so I can ban you and Finns.]

    Ah Ha but are doctors any good at setting up blogs, my doctor I don’t think he would be as he laboriously hits the keyboard for a script. Sorry Dio couldn’t resist that

  21. WOW , power in qld going up 50% ! Now that’s what Abbott can call a GREAT BIG NEW TAX ! Told my liberal conservative this afternoon and was in denial , and said you can’t believe what’s online is true. He reads the Courier Mail daily ? I told him years ago about Murdoch’s front page “Shit- sandwich for Labor and the Greens ” and told him to tell me when he sees a Good Story for Labor/Greens on the front page, still waiting ?
    Stop picking on my EX- Cr. Hajnal Black Ha Ha Ha have been waiting for this for years, you guys have left out her plastic tits and Botox lips. She has signs out for the council elections and has said she will run again ? There is a few people running against her and one is a good looking TALL woman .

  22. Tricot

    You just don’t understand, do you, that Labor will lose the next election in QLD alone if something is not done. You can’t turn a blind eye to that very salient reality.

    Julia has an ‘approval’ rating of minus 40 in QLD. William Bowe mentioned that this afternoon on News Radio.

    And, yes, I will go all over this leadership thing again, if it is the only way I can make some modest contribution to the debate of what are we to do.

  23. [The only thing keeping me going is my contempt for Abbott!!]

    feeney – I truly feel your pain. In fact, I felt it for all Labor Qlders on the weekend and still do but most of us are determined that Abbott shouldn’t ever lead the Coalition as PM. He doesn’t have the right personality.

    I listened to the AMWU State Secretary on RN this morning with Fran Kelly. I don’t know whether he is a good bloke or not but he seemed determined that Labor will rebuild. He also said that has not experienced a hatred of JG in Qld and that they can rebuild with her as leader and they will be working hard for her. Said he needs to find out why so many blue collar workers decided to vote against Labor and will be carrying out a survey altho he doesn’t have the money for a full scale (every member) survey. I actually felt better after listening to him. So take heart – rest up a bit and remember we will all be thinking of you up there for quite awhile.

  24. [to be banned at both PB and AFV must rank as some sort of achievement]

    Gussie, i know someone who has been banned by YouTube

  25. Dio@895:

    Thank you all.

    Tell me to shut up if this is getting boring or self-indulgent.

    What are the ups and downs of a self-managed superfund vs an industry super fund?

    We’ve got a self managed sf. It works great. We have retired, and everything is in term deposits, which pay interest fortnightly into another pocket, which we can access, and which also earns (a slightly lower) interest.

    It was set up with the help of an accountant, and the paperwork to start it is horrendous, but not the way our accountant did it. We had a couple of meetings with him and a stack of paper 15 cm high with little “sign here” postits.

    It is very cost effective, and we got (until a few weeks ago) 6% interest, when the best the industry super fund could do was 4%. Latest term deposit interest is 5.55%.

    A mate of mine, a doctor, with a great deal more money, set his up as stocks and shares that pay dividends, and he lives off the dividends. Buys and sells, and seems to do very well out of it.

  26. regarding industry super. from market analysis and research conducted by me, i determined that Stronger Super changes, in particular My Super, would hasten the consolidation within the industry fund sector. there is now about 10 massive funds with the rest becoming also rans. the focus on fees and economies of scale is resulting in smaller funds falling behind in technology and pricing. eventually the trustees must act in the members best interest and seek to merge with a larger fund. competition in the sector is diminishing.

  27. gus

    [I may remind keen eyed watchers that i have been banned about 15 times here]

    I believe you hold the world record.

    I was almost banned once near the start. And it was for stating a fact that was true. I’ve never spoken the truth since then. 😉

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