Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

A bad result for the government in the latest fortnightly Newspoll, with the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 54-46 to 57-43. The primary votes are 28 per cent for Labor (down three) and 47 per cent for the Coalition (up four). Julia Gillard at least has the consolation that her personal ratings have improved from the previous fortnight’s dismal result, with her approval up three to 31 per cent and disapproval down four to 58 per cent. Tony Abbott’s ratings are unchanged at 32 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, and there is likewise essentially no change on preferred prime minister (Gillard leads 40-37, up from 39-37).

Another consolation for Labor is the possibility that a bit of static might be expected from a poll conducted over the same weekend as a state election such as the one in Queensland. They can be fortified in this view by the fact that their standing improved in this week’s Essential Research poll, the most recent weekly component of which was conducted over a longer period than Newspoll (Wednesday to Sunday rather than Friday to Sunday). Very unusually, given that Essential is a two-week rolling average, this showed a two-point shift on two-party preferred, with the Coalition lead shrinking from 56-44 to 54-46. Given that Essential spiked to 57-43 a fortnight ago, and the sample which sent it there has now washed out of the rolling average, this is not entirely surprising. Labor’s primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down one to 47 per cent. Further questions featured in the poll cover the economy, its prospects, best party to handle it and personal financial situation (slightly more optimism than six months ago, and Labor up in line with its overall improvement since then), job security, Kony 2012, taking sickies and the impact of the high dollar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,757 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. You can’t be serious feeney@938?

    We have been all though this before.

    Queensland, thank goodness is not the rest of Oz and don’t you get it, Rudd is not wanted by the party. He is not being kept out because nobody likes him, but because he failed as a PM.

    If he came back tomorrow the press and the opposition would have a field day as his return would be seen, rightfully, as repudiating what the majority of Labor has been trying to do for the last 18 months

    Perhaps you missed my post taken from the recent Economist which lays the blame for the failure of both the Carbon Tax and the MRRT at Rudd’s feet.

    And, I might add, it is not St Kevin coming back to save the party by himself, he actually has to work with other people as well.

    If you are so sure of this, just what policies would need to be change and how for this to come about? Surely you don’t believe it is just a matter of the Knight on his white charger tuning up?

    I would be happy for you to elaborate what changed policy directions Rudd would have to accompany this restoration?

  2. [Back to the politics of it, is there likely to be any changes to investing under Labor in the next few years and what might the Libs change?]

    Tone will probably increase the depreciation allowance on house from 5% to 10% on the advice of Hockey and Joyce. House values will soar, people will borrow against the increased value to buy 200cm TVs, extend their house, spec in the stock market, tax receipts will increase, Tone will get a surplus. Private debt will soar but Tone will say he hasn’t heard any one complaining about the increased value of their house(s).

  3. [ I want to put my super into my home isuch a change (even with appropriate controls and even caps and limits) would be incredibly popular in the mortgage belt. ]

    Why? You’d then have to pay market rent to live in your own house – otherwise you are getting a financial benefit out of your super before you would normally eligble to do so. This would not only spoil the point, it would be almost impossible to regulate adequately. And so guess who would get the most benefit?

  4. [BH
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 8:10 pm | Permalink
    don’t listen to the other news, did anyone else?

    mari – We watched SBS tonight and last night and I have to say that Karen Middleton gave the fairest reports on JG that I have seen from her to date. They were actually very favourable. On Monday night she actually showed a girl calling out “I love you” to the PM. The reports of the PM’s contribution to the Summit have been positive.

    Haven’t seen any other news reports tho.]
    Thanks I have thought Karen Middleton tweets wern’t too bad, yes I also won’t click
    on that vile bit of journalism from SMH, glad I stopped sussBH
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 8:10 pm | Permalink
    don’t listen to the other news, did anyone else?

    mari – We watched SBS tonight and last night and I have to say that Karen Middleton gave the fairest reports on JG that I have seen from her to date. They were actually very favourable. On Monday night she actually showed a girl calling out “I love you” to the PM. The reports of the PM’s contribution to the Summit have been positive.

    Haven’t seen any other news reports tho.]

    Thanks for that, I have though Karen Middlteton tweets from Seoul have been very reasonable. Certainly won’t be looking at that SMH article, am so glad I stopped subscribing to Fairfax, they are going to the “dogs”

  5. Diog

    Most super funds have a range of options available to members. They are usually named something like this.

    Secure – all cash and bonds
    Stable – mainly cash and bonds with some exposure to shares and property
    Balanced – pretty much what the name implies but a higher allocation to shares and property
    Growth – pretty much all shares and property with some cash and bonds
    High Growth – all shares and property

    Please note that the property component in these options consists of property trusts listed on the stock exchange rather than actually owning a physical property.

    Remember also that the higher the return, the higher the risk.

    The growth options should over the long term (10+ years) provide higher returns, but at a higher risk (eg stock market crash).

    The secure option will never go down in value, but at the same time will never rise in value much.

    Generally speaking, the secure option is only best for those about to retire in the next year or so, after they have already built their capital base and want to preserve it.

    If you are unsure about what the best level of allocation is for you, talk to a financial adviser, but (and this is really important), choose an adviser who charges you a fee for their time rather one who makes their money from commissions.

    The fee based advisers tend to be more ethical and have your interests at heart rather than their own.

    NEVER, I repeat NEVER, see an adviser who is employed by any of the banks.

  7. Dio

    [The reputation doctors have for being financially hopeless is well-deserved and I’m no exception.]

    I now have two Nigerian friends who can help you with your difficulties.

  9. Pegasus at 924

    I did not know that.

    It is extraordinarily bad. It is sad that our two major parties never debate the erosion of our rights (of which we have almost none protected) nor the erosion of our independent sovereignty.

    I wish all these true blue ALP supporters would explain how this serves Australia.

    I assume we have to do it as a cost to have a USA military base in Darwin and to have the honour of buying their second hand military garbage to support their industries and their fragile self-importance.

  10. [ only my friends address me as gus ]

    You wouldn’t be addressed too many times!

    [ and some dickhead here boasted they could make a phone call to mick gatto

    wtf

    some real creeps are being exposed ]

    Exposed for what you wouldn’t know where your bedroom was?

    Your right BB, for PB it is going to be one of those nights.
    So goody goody baby talk earlier in the AM’s but madder than his only friend Frank nutter in the PM’s . By the way BB do you know that Gus and the other 4 mystery moderators have banned you over there – go back to last week-end with the posts to see if they are still there. Frank bragged about it. Can you believe the nutcases have also banned sweet mMsay. Don’t bother I know it is all so puerile. I will just go and count my money for a few hours and then lick my dickhead as per my name.
    By the way William Bowe told me Gus has humour

  11. [Diogenes
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 8:43 pm | Permalink
    mari

    but I would have thought Dio was clever enough to take these into account, anyway it worked for us

    The reputation doctors have for being financially hopeless is well-deserved and I’m no exception]
    Ok I withdraw defeated maybe we were lucky a Bank Manager plus an accountant

  13. [Tone has been making noises about industry funds which does not bode well.]

    He’s got some political debts to repay to the Retail Funds, it seems.

  14. Dio – you asked if the ALP or the fibs are planning any changes to super. Last week I had a chat with my super fund and they indicated the tax free salary sacrifice Ceiling of 50k (less 15%) will reduce to 25k in the budget. So if you are going to put money into super from a salary I’d get a move on.

  16. Well I am amazed, the ABC has finally work out that Julia Gillard is the PM and as such you don’t go around calling her mrs, you call her PM.

    So slow and these asre the people that are supposed to be giving us the news.

  18. swamprat

    Not to worry. When the Greens party rules in both the House and the Senate they will be able to rescind the relevant legislation and regulations, fix the budget and finally get some decent AGW action going.
    That would be not before 2020 at the earliest, I imagine, if ever. At any rate, too late to make much real difference.

    The main thing is to keep being right and splitting the centre-left vote to the benefit of the conservative rightards.

  19. [Why? You’d then have to pay market rent to live in your own house – otherwise you are getting a financial benefit out of your super before you would normally eligble to do so. This would not only spoil the point, it would be almost impossible to regulate adequately. And so guess who would get the most benefit?]

    Why would you need to pay market rent ? It would be easy to design controls to preserve the super portion and even calculating and preserving a portion of capital gains. Even without market rents I would have been much better off than my actual super and I’d have saved a tonne of interest.

    If you were worried about the rich profiting unduly you’d cap the super at median household prices so after you put in 500,000 or 600,000 you had to revert to a normal superfund. It isn’t hard if you think about – only political downside would be related to the cash out / retire point where the non home super isn’t suffice enough income

  20. Hate to ask, but why did they ban my say? She’s been telling us we ought to go ‘over there’ where it’s all friends together.

  23. Dr John
    [Can you believe the nutcases have also banned sweet mMsay]
    As the great philospher John McEnroe once said “You cannot be serious ?” !!. Have they upgraded the requirement of contributors to be 500% Labor ? My Say being a miserable 110%

  24. Could be interesting:

    Emma Alberici (@albericie)
    3/27/12 8:22 PM
    interview tonight on #Lateline – Sam Coates, political writer for The Times on Tory funding scandal.

  25. Good evening all.

    Are people still advocating a change of PM in response to opinion polls? Even after the circus which became NSW Labor?

    Amazing.

  26. snake oil

    [So goody goody baby talk earlier in the AM’s but madder than his only friend Frank nutter in the PM’]

    dropped a tab tonite, eh

    Go on threaten me again , u piece of slime

  27. “When they own shops in big shopping malls and the rents go through the roof pressured by the big boys, their livelihood is as threatened as the car worker in Elizabeth or Altona.

    Where is Labor for them?”

    The same place it always was before they got too big for their boots and listened to the shit being poured in their ears by Howard who gave them handouts and said they were aspirational. Same with tradies who can’t cut it. Same with miners who are about to be replaced by cheap Asian labour. Same with dopey suburban housewives who think the sociopath is going to buy them a nanny if they vote for him. Just this once.

    They think they’re players and suddenly and find themselves at the deep end of the pool and then discover they can’t swim. And then expect mama to come for them. That’s why my recommendation for Gillard is to take away the anti-Workchoices remedy for the next time they come calling in two elections time. Time to tell these overblown f’wits that if they want the horse’s head, they take the horse’s arse. If they really think that they won’t get swallowed by the Lowys at the shopping centre or by Gina and Clive down the mines or that Jamie Packer will make sure they win at Crown and that they really do belong at the king table then go ahead. Take the Abbott bribes. Pick yourself up a nanny. Borrow that extra three hundred thousand because it would be a shame to have to wait for those extra bedrooms. Get into that franchise that will quadruple your money in two years. But don’t come crying when the rents get too high, or they want a sixteen hour shift in forty degree heat in the middle of nowhere at the base rate, or you can’t afford to feed the kids because your wages are at the bottom of a machine in the Legends Bar at your local rissole and there was no one around to stop you doing it.

    Be the big man. Be your own woman. Run in the Bronco’s backline and dodge the salary cap with the Storm. Put all your money on Black Cavier next time a race is set up for her and then go and pick up your $5.50 while the rest of the Bogans have to settle for $1.02. Best of all, be a member of the party with no opposition. But don’t come crying looking for someone to help the next time it all turns to shit. Which it will.

  28. [I have just gone through last Saturday’s massacre, having worked from 7am to 8pm at my polling booth, and it’s not very pleasant watching the massacre occur as you scrutineer the votes being counted.]

    feeney – I sympathise with you because I know exactly how you feel at the moment and it’s the absolute pits. I spent the same hours on a booth and scrutineering for the NSW election in 2011. It was a miserable day knowing exactly what everyone was going to do as they passed me. Scrutineering the vote was worse because I really had to face the expected loss. I had the Liberal scrutineer absolutely gloating but I know how he they felt because his Party had been in the wilderness for a long time. It took me ages to get over it but I’ve lived long enough to know that life goes on and the past year has gone very quickly. BOF is not quite the golden haired boy he was 12 months ago altho the polls are still great for him.

    NSW Labor is making changes and I am heartened by them so far – they’re not as fast as I’d like them to happen but they have begun.

    I can tell you that none of the members I have spoken with (and we had a Country Labor conference the weekend after the leadership ballot in February) want Kevin back. They do want a good policies and legislation to be in place before the next election so that Labor has a proud record even if we go down.

    Remember in 2010 that Qlders were waiting to belt Kevin out of the ballpark. They could easily remember that and want to do it again if he came back. Fickle?

  29. R

    Yes. Yet another Think Tank creating a debate out of nothing.

    I have had my doubts about ‘goodness’ and similar doubts about ‘evil’ but I am starting to think that true evil and Think Tanks can readily manipulated to become f*ckbuddies.

  31. [ confessions
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 9:12 pm | Permalink
    Good evening all.

    Are people still advocating a change of PM in response to opinion polls? Even after the circus which became NSW Labor?

    Amazing.]

    Some are ‘fess.

    The ones who never learn from past mistakes.

  32. [By the way BB do you know that Gus and the other 4 mystery moderators have banned you over there – go back to last week-end with the posts to see if they are still there. Frank bragged about it. Can you believe the nutcases have also banned sweet mMsay.]

    No, I didn’t know I’ve been banned at Frank’s. I haven’t written a post there for a week or two (not since the Great Meltdown here), but tried to pay my way by not just joining in the PB Bashing and actually spending some time writing something.

    It all sounds very post-Potemkin doesn’t it? Early days of the Revolution when anyone who looked askance at anyone else was up against a wall in the snow, their freezing knees knocking together until… Bang! went the firing squad. Another revisionist dispatched by the People’s Committee For Correct Thinking. Shirkers or doubters will not be tolerated.

    What’s funny is that, since I haven’t written anything there for that week or so, I seem to have been banned for something I wrote here! I thought only American imperialist pigs reserved the right to make their laws applicable anywhere in the world? I’ve been sentenced in absentia. Does this mean I’m Trotsky? Was that a shadow I saw just now on my deck or was it Gus, Commissar in charge of Wet Affairs, brandishing a cyber stiletto?

    Paranoid, moi?

    Frank has set up his blog as a haven for the oppressed, the refugees from the “Man-Boy”. Unfortunately it seems to have become even more of a caricature of everything it despises than was at first thought possible.

    Frank’s bloggers continue to post here, but it appears that the favor is not returned.

    Personally, I really didn’t want to get involved in any of this, but when Gus had one too many the other night, I couldn’t resist. Sorry William.

  35. Personally, I really didn’t want to get involved in any of this, but when Gus had one too many the other night, I couldn’t resist.

    embers

    stop using my name

    it is tres creepy

  36. the Sydney Morning Herald beat up of JGs answers to Korean students was writen by John Garnaut, son of Professor Ross Garnaut – now the good professor’s unrealistic AGW scheme was compromised somewhat by the political exigencies of the day; hope this is not affecting the son’s perspective.

    then again, it could just be the same dopey outsourced sub-editors who butchered Peter Hartcher’s piece on the weekend. All pandering to coming behemoth from the West (ie the one who is dudding her kids of their inheritance)

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-strikes-wrong-note-with-ordinary-koreans-20120327-1vvsr.html

  37. WeWantPaul@968

    [ Why would you need to pay market rent ? ]

    How else would you be able to value the actual benefit you are getting? Look at it simply – if you used your super instead of a 100% mortgage, then the benefit you are getting it whatever rent you would expect to get from the same amount of money invested in an equivalent rental property. If you don’t then pay that into your super, you are effectively withdrawing benefits from your super that you are not supposed to be entitled to until you retire.

    Yes, you could cap this, but at what? Say you capped it at $500k – then you are significantly advantaging anyone who has $500k in super, as well as owning a house worth at least that much. Or put it another way – you are disadvantaging anyone who does not have both these things – i.e. most people!

  38. Boerwar @ 967

    I do not understand what you mean.

    The Greens are hardly ever likely to get anywhere near power. Indeed I do not believe ever. The Greens do not seem to me very intelligent at politics.

    For good or ill Australians have only the ALP/LNP to look after their rights. And given both parties agree 100% on many things, especially their blind obedience to Washington.

    It is sadly ironic that Americans have some rights protected by their Constitution but the ALP is quiet happy to deny us protections but at the same time to pass laws that affect our rights at the behest of the USA.

  39. [poroti
    Posted Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 8:59 pm | Permalink
    mari

    You may just like this Panaorama expose on Murdoch and the pay tv hacking issue.Halleluja !!

    Pay T.V Card Fraud- NDS of Murdoch News Corp

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0clg2m-ePd0

    Thank you so much so glad NDS”is the forefront of stopping computer hacking” un quote, arn’t you? Ha Why can’t we have something like Panorama out here, the ABC used to be like that, eg “Moonlight State” but now they are in bed with the buggers. News Ltd has to go surely

  40. Rossmore

    That article is sort of amazing. It was spookily prescient of what an Abbott government would get up to.
    Of course, could you imagine any newspaper publishing an article like that about an Abbott government?

  42. Gusface

    [the faux outrage re my say]
    It is not faux outrage. It is amazement that someone so impacably pro Labor and pro Frank’s blog could fall foul of the rules over at “the other place”.

  43. Roy O @ 976

    All that’s missing from your rant against everyone is a chorus of your old standard “Cry-y-y-y-ing” over whatever. How neatly everything fits into generalised one-dimensional descriptions in your fantasy world. No room for any grey there. Have you tried anger management?

  46. gus

    [frank sometimes is a tad exuberant in his moderation]

    Perhaps something curdled Frank’s milk of human kindness.

  47. [NSW Labor is making changes and I am heartened by them so far – they’re not as fast as I’d like them to happen but they have begun.]

    When I was a kid my nan always said that nothing worth having comes easily or quickly. At least that was her excuse for having dinner out later than expected. 😉

  49. swamprat

    [Boerwar @ 967

    I do not understand what you mean.]

    This would not be a lonely situation. What I meant was that it is not much use for the Greens party to get into an uproar on digital information management policy if they are only every in a minor position to do anything about it. In the interim, they along with the Labor Party, are splitting the centre-left vote and both assuring MAD for the centre-left vote. Welcome to an endless parade of conservate-rightard governments.

    [The Greens are hardly ever likely to get anywhere near power. Indeed I do not believe ever. The Greens do not seem to me very intelligent at politics.]

    I support a lot of the Greens party policies. I voted for them in the Senate last election. I believe they are the only party with a serious understanding of AGW and what needs to be done about it. However, the structural split of the centre-left vote into to competing parties is self-defeating. It is a waste of time for the Greens to point to Labor and saying, ‘You are wrong!’ and ditto, vice versa.

    What we need is some shared notion that the having a common enemy is more important than the lesser differences between Labor and the Greens. And, from there, turning that shared notion into a structure and processes that ensure a proper and effective expression of centre-left strength in the House and the Senate.

  50. Mick77

    You miss the point RO is making me thinks. Australians are not seeing the forest for the trees at the moment. Whinging about their current lot in life. People will only realise they are being screwed over, long after the dust settles

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