Queensland election live

9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there.

9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted.

9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of less than 10 per cent: Di Farmer in Bulimba, who has her nose in front; Jason O’Brien, whose 4.5 per cent swing against was good but not good enough; Cameron Dick in Greenslopes, likewise good but not good enough; Curtis Pitt, who has had a big personal win in retaining Mulgrave against a swing of 6.6 per cent; Anna Bligh in South Brisbane, who has actually held South Brisbane quite comfortably; Mandy Johnstone in Townsville; and Simon Finn, who might yet hold in Yeerongpilly in the face of a 9 per cent swing, but is nonetheless behind.

9.04pm. Antony cautious about the LNP winning Maryborough.

8.49pm. ABC computer promotes Bulimba and Mulgrave from ALP ahead to ALP retain. Of the eight seats where they’re in front, there are now seven down as “ALP gain”, with only Mackay remaining as “ALP ahead”. Waterford has gone from “LNP ahead” to “LNP gain”. By this reckoning, Labor’s absolute best case scenario is now nine seats.

8.39pm. ABC computer has dialled Maryborough back from LNP gain to LNP ahead.

8.25pm. The KAP may yet have an outside hope in Thuringowa if Labor preferences favour them strongly. The primary votes are 36.0 per cent for the LNP, 30.6 per cent for the KAP and 27.4 per cent for labor. Antony Green appears not to think so though. Bob Katter sounding bullish, for what it’s worth.

8.18pm. Sorry, got confused there – it has stayed on eight. Mulgrave now up from ALP ahead to ALP retain.

8.12pm. ABC now down to seven seats with Labor ahead: retaining Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton, South Brisbane and Woodridge, ahead in Bulimba, Mackay and Mulgrave. LNP ahead in Waterford and Yeerongpilly. Everything else compared for the LNP, except Mount Isa and Dalrympe for Katter’s Australian Party, Nicklin and Gladstone retained by independents.

8.10pm. ABC computer now calling independent Chris Foley’s seat of Maryborough for the LNP.

7.56pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in only eight seats.

7.45pm. As noted by Antony, the KAP has not made huge gains out of coal seam gas in the Darling Downs: its strength remains very much off the back of Katter in the north.

7.44pm. Antony Green not buying Seeney’s line that Peter Wellington is in trouble in Nicklin.

7.42pm. ABC calling Ipswich West for LNP.

7.41pm. ABC calling South Brisbane for Anna Bligh.

7.31pm. Of the four independents, only Liz Cunningham in Gladstone is safe. Close contest in Maryborough between independent incumbent Chris Foley and LNP challenger Anne Maddern. Dissonance between the ABC computer (IND retain) and what Jeff Seeney says (LNP looking good) with Peter Wellington’s seat of Nicklin. LNP easily recovers Burnett, where Rob Messenger quit the party mid-term. Pretty clear I think that the KAP will win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more.

7.30pm. The ABC website’s predictions columns has swung into action. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge, and is ahead in Bulimba, Mackay, Mulgrave, Nudgee and South Brisbane. They could conceivably win Logan, Mundingburra, Springwood and Waterford, but there are too few figures in from them. They are behind in Cook, Lytton, Townsville and Yeerongpilly, but not gone yet.

7.28pm. Jeff Seeney sounding confident about Nicklin, but the ABC computer is calling it for Peter Wellington.

7.24pm. With a quarter of the vote counted, the ABC computer has Anna Bligh edging back ahead in South Brisbane. But clearly Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick are gone.

7.16pm. ABC’s two-party preferred projection is about 64-36, so the exit polls are looking good.

7.15pm. ABC computer projection, when bold calls are made where one or other party is merely “ahead”, now has Labor down to 10 from 14 earlier.

7.14pm. ABC computer graphic says three seats for KAP, but I can’t see anything beyond Mount Isa and Dalrymple.

7.13pm. Carl Rackemann (KAP) appears to be falling well short in Nanango; LNP’s Deb Frecklington to win comfortably.

7.07pm. Spare a thought for Peter Beattie’s old seat of Brisbane Central: he held it by 25 per cent after the 2001 election, ABC computer now calling it for LNP (results on site lagging behind what we’re getting on television).

7.06pm. Oh yeah, Ashgrove. ABC computer has Campbell Newman romping home by 9 per cent.

7.05pm. Peter Wellington firming up in Nicklin.

7.02pm. Antony’s casualty list: Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Townsville North, Whitsunday, Southport, Townsville, Cairns, Mansfield, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Mount Ommaney, Burleigh, Pumicestone, Mount Coot-tha, Redcliffe, Brisbane Central, Albert, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Murrumba, Stafford, Thuringowa, Algester, Stretton, Sunnybank, Lytton.

6.54pm. Courtesy of Psephos in comments, Labor expects to lose Capalaba, which you would expect given the overall swing: the margin is 9.7 per cent.

6.52pm. Peter Wellington with a slight primary vote lead in Nicklin, but booth-matching shows a huge and decisive swing to the LNP. Probably want more figures though.

6.51pm. Anna Bligh trailing on the primary vote in South Brisbane, and slightly behind on the primary vote. But Greens preferences might save her.

6.49pm. Antony cites a swing of 13 per cent, placing the result nearer Newspoll than the exit polls which had it slightly higher. However, it may yet change. The LNP has recovered Beaudesert, where its member Aidan McLindon had defected to the KAP, which was not unexpected.

6.47pm. Nothing appearing in the “predictions” column on the ABC results page, which is bothersome because it’s the best way to follow the action when seats are falling by the bucketload.

6.42pm. As Antony notes, early results hard to read exactly because of small rural booth results: assumptions are being made about Katter’s Australian Party preferences, which constitute a considerable share of the vote. However, the ABC computer is already set to tick over to a majority for the LNP. More than 20 seats have fallen, and it’s happening too quickly for me to keep up.

6.32pm. ABC computer already calling 22 seats for the LNP and one for Labor.

6.30pm. Jeff Seeney claims Katter’s Australian Party vote well short of what they would need on small booths.

6.26pm. Two small booths in from Dalrymple: very early days of course, but encouraging for KAP incumbent Shane Knuth on 50.0 per cent.

5.19pm. Sky’s exit poll shows a 15.3 per cent swing. They appear to have done the right thing this time and told us what the swing was, rather than publishing a bewildering two-party preferred figure without telling us what seats were polled, as they have done in the past. These were the five most marginal seats: Chatsworth and Everton in Brisbane, Broadwater on the Gold Coast, Cook on the Cape York Peninsula and Barron River in Cairns.

5.10pm. Peter Black at Essential Research relates on Twitter that a Galaxy exit poll conducted for Channel Nine has the LNP’s two-party lead at 63-37.

4.40pm. Closure of polls still over an hour away, but Sky News has published its first exit poll results, only providing material on the most important factor in determining vote choice. As usual, these are hard to read, because they apparently target only the five most marginal seats. If this is to be taken literally, they have chosen seats which are pretty meaningless in the context of this election: all will be easily won by the LNP. For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent. I presume respondents were asked in turn whether each of these issues were important to them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

837 comments on “Queensland election live”

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  1. I find it strange that LNP supporters love their euphimisms for beating Labor leaders with baseball bats so much.

    Do they hate them so much that they’d be excited to see those women being beaten and bleeding from such vile thuggery?

  2. Tonight we see what happens to a premier, who lied to her electorate, and we find out what the electorate would do to a lying premier.

    It is just like what happened to the NSW ALP, “yes we will build the NW rail line for the 11th time”

  3. BK
    [Wouldn’t it be funny if the continuing investigations find Can-Do in fact Can-Did!]
    I think that Mr Newman’s wife’s family and his wife may be his biggest liability in the medium term. Watch this space.

  4. dovif

    [It is just like what happened to the NSW ALP, “yes we will build the NW rail line for the 11th time”]

    I suppose that your support for Mr O’Farrell will evaporate now that he is holding up $2 billion worth of investment in rail and other infrastructure in NSW.

    Talk about the NSW Coalition wasting time, wasting money and faffing around!

    Next, please.

  5. I don’t fault LNP/Coalition figures using the results tonight as a warning shot to Canberra, as I expect ALP figures would do the same, if the roles were reversed. In fact, if memory serves, they did when the ALP was winning state elections in the early 2000s…

  6. Mantis
    Neither I have been trying to get you calculate the extent of the bias in a Morgan Poll I.e is is it 1,2 or 3 per cent but you have never said or inferred a percentage therefore I regard any commentary on Morgan F to F as inherently worthless hence Mumble and others ignore these polls. What you do to me is act like so called shock jock and just try and turn me off.
    In future I will not comment on Morgan. I might just make predictions.
    As for GG whilst he is clearly one of your better contributors he is a self proclaimed partisan and party hack. Generally this category of PB has minmal empathy or ability to understand all but their own particular views a la the Frank’s view fan club who vacillate between your respective blogs.
    I have no interest in character assessments from the zealots.
    I do predict that the swing against Oakeshott next election will be at least 28%.
    I have no idea where Labor could possibly pick up a seat federally even in WA as Ken Wyatt won’t be beaten.
    Fed Labor seat loss minimum 12.

  7. 30% swing in Whitsunday against the ALP, the ALP is not in the top 2, this is worst case scenario for the ALP, losing votes to the Greens and KAP

  8. Finns
    I will never admire Mr Hawker again after he openly campaigned for Mr Rudd in the leadership contest. This severely copromised his position as Party-pollster/political tactician, IMHO.

  9. I hope the people of Queenslan know what they are doing.
    Anna Bligh will be missed. Hopefully she gets a senate seat like Carr as there is a Ned for people of her undoubted talent.

  10. Why is Sky using “LAB” as its abbreviation for the Labor Party in seat results and “ALP” elsewhere? Nobody else uses “LAB”. Sloppy mistakes like that really bug me and we’re going to get it every time they put up an electorate’s votes.

  11. Boarwar

    The ALP did nothing for 12 years, I am willing to give the Liberal 9 years to do something, they would still be better then the ALP

  12. @William

    Ah, okay. I was only 8 when Goss lost office, so I didn’t know he started it. Nonetheless, I wish that these violent metaphors would just stop in all elections. It’s just disturbing.

  13. Labor on 52% in Niddrie, thus providing a ringing endorsement for the carbon price, the mining tax, the PHI rebate means test and same-sex marriage. Thanks Tony.

  14. dovif

    [The ALP did nothing for 12 years, I am willing to give the Liberal 9 years to do something, they would still be better then the ALP]

    What 12 years would they be? Strange number. Still…

    Mr Campbell is heading for a lot of trouble in terms of budget management. The expectations will be huge and his capacity to deliver is questionable at best. Maybe he will be able to grease the wheels more effectively, as it were?

    We do know that Mr Campbell is a Do-nothing on AGW and nine years of Do-nothing on top of all the other reactionary Do-nothing on AGW is far too long.

  15. BW

    OK. So it’s

    5 Basketball
    7 Netball
    11 Cricket/Soccer
    13 Rugby League
    15 Rugby Union
    18 AFL

    Yep. And the US Army, in order to promote battle readiness for its troops on the Korean Peninsula had (has?) a game called ‘war ball’. There is a ball with a diameter approximately greater than the height of your average grunt. It is too heavy to get off the ground. There are two winning lines about a mile apart. There is about a company (say about 100) or a batallion (say, 1,000) on each side. Weapons are not allowed. The winning team gets the ball over their victory line. Injuries are numerous.

  16. Boarwar

    I know ALP supporters tends to be a bit slow: THE WORLD is doing nothing on AGW, that is what Copenhagen told us, that is what the EU is telling up.

    The price for carbon will be no higher then $5 for the next 20 years, countries do not want to hurt their own economy.

    Just because the Greens forced Gillard into one, does not mean it is a good thing

  17. [ruawake
    Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 7:39 pm | Permalink
    Anthony is already giving the ALP 12]

    Its 11 now and I wouldn’t hold your breath on that figure…

  18. dovif

    You just don’t get it, do you?

    AGW will not go away by itself.

    You can cling to the artificial ‘debate’ promoted by charlatans such as Mr Plimer and Mr Lindzen and Mr Spencer (a creationist, BTW). Or you can get real.

    BTW, Queensland is almost certainly going to be one of the first cabs of the rank of climate suffering in Australia. Just ask them about their climate-related insurance premiums. The best evidence we have is that the GBR will have about 30% of the species that it has now based on acidity alone. Add temperature anomalies and the GBR is going to be very, very different in the lifetimes of our children and grandchildren.

    The world is doing plenty – and certainly much more than the Do-nothing reactionaries in Australia ever have done or ever intend to do.

  19. [It is just like what happened to the NSW ALP, “yes we will build the NW rail line for the 11th time”]

    The longer it’s delayed the better. It goes right under my bloody house, 27 metres down.

    Yours sincerely,

    Bushfire Nimby.

  20. Puff, the Magic Clown,

    How about you act like a man/woman and use your real name instead of hiding behind a fake moniker 🙂

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