Queensland election live

9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there.

9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted.

9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of less than 10 per cent: Di Farmer in Bulimba, who has her nose in front; Jason O’Brien, whose 4.5 per cent swing against was good but not good enough; Cameron Dick in Greenslopes, likewise good but not good enough; Curtis Pitt, who has had a big personal win in retaining Mulgrave against a swing of 6.6 per cent; Anna Bligh in South Brisbane, who has actually held South Brisbane quite comfortably; Mandy Johnstone in Townsville; and Simon Finn, who might yet hold in Yeerongpilly in the face of a 9 per cent swing, but is nonetheless behind.

9.04pm. Antony cautious about the LNP winning Maryborough.

8.49pm. ABC computer promotes Bulimba and Mulgrave from ALP ahead to ALP retain. Of the eight seats where they’re in front, there are now seven down as “ALP gain”, with only Mackay remaining as “ALP ahead”. Waterford has gone from “LNP ahead” to “LNP gain”. By this reckoning, Labor’s absolute best case scenario is now nine seats.

8.39pm. ABC computer has dialled Maryborough back from LNP gain to LNP ahead.

8.25pm. The KAP may yet have an outside hope in Thuringowa if Labor preferences favour them strongly. The primary votes are 36.0 per cent for the LNP, 30.6 per cent for the KAP and 27.4 per cent for labor. Antony Green appears not to think so though. Bob Katter sounding bullish, for what it’s worth.

8.18pm. Sorry, got confused there – it has stayed on eight. Mulgrave now up from ALP ahead to ALP retain.

8.12pm. ABC now down to seven seats with Labor ahead: retaining Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton, South Brisbane and Woodridge, ahead in Bulimba, Mackay and Mulgrave. LNP ahead in Waterford and Yeerongpilly. Everything else compared for the LNP, except Mount Isa and Dalrympe for Katter’s Australian Party, Nicklin and Gladstone retained by independents.

8.10pm. ABC computer now calling independent Chris Foley’s seat of Maryborough for the LNP.

7.56pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in only eight seats.

7.45pm. As noted by Antony, the KAP has not made huge gains out of coal seam gas in the Darling Downs: its strength remains very much off the back of Katter in the north.

7.44pm. Antony Green not buying Seeney’s line that Peter Wellington is in trouble in Nicklin.

7.42pm. ABC calling Ipswich West for LNP.

7.41pm. ABC calling South Brisbane for Anna Bligh.

7.31pm. Of the four independents, only Liz Cunningham in Gladstone is safe. Close contest in Maryborough between independent incumbent Chris Foley and LNP challenger Anne Maddern. Dissonance between the ABC computer (IND retain) and what Jeff Seeney says (LNP looking good) with Peter Wellington’s seat of Nicklin. LNP easily recovers Burnett, where Rob Messenger quit the party mid-term. Pretty clear I think that the KAP will win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more.

7.30pm. The ABC website’s predictions columns has swung into action. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge, and is ahead in Bulimba, Mackay, Mulgrave, Nudgee and South Brisbane. They could conceivably win Logan, Mundingburra, Springwood and Waterford, but there are too few figures in from them. They are behind in Cook, Lytton, Townsville and Yeerongpilly, but not gone yet.

7.28pm. Jeff Seeney sounding confident about Nicklin, but the ABC computer is calling it for Peter Wellington.

7.24pm. With a quarter of the vote counted, the ABC computer has Anna Bligh edging back ahead in South Brisbane. But clearly Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick are gone.

7.16pm. ABC’s two-party preferred projection is about 64-36, so the exit polls are looking good.

7.15pm. ABC computer projection, when bold calls are made where one or other party is merely “ahead”, now has Labor down to 10 from 14 earlier.

7.14pm. ABC computer graphic says three seats for KAP, but I can’t see anything beyond Mount Isa and Dalrymple.

7.13pm. Carl Rackemann (KAP) appears to be falling well short in Nanango; LNP’s Deb Frecklington to win comfortably.

7.07pm. Spare a thought for Peter Beattie’s old seat of Brisbane Central: he held it by 25 per cent after the 2001 election, ABC computer now calling it for LNP (results on site lagging behind what we’re getting on television).

7.06pm. Oh yeah, Ashgrove. ABC computer has Campbell Newman romping home by 9 per cent.

7.05pm. Peter Wellington firming up in Nicklin.

7.02pm. Antony’s casualty list: Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Townsville North, Whitsunday, Southport, Townsville, Cairns, Mansfield, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Mount Ommaney, Burleigh, Pumicestone, Mount Coot-tha, Redcliffe, Brisbane Central, Albert, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Murrumba, Stafford, Thuringowa, Algester, Stretton, Sunnybank, Lytton.

6.54pm. Courtesy of Psephos in comments, Labor expects to lose Capalaba, which you would expect given the overall swing: the margin is 9.7 per cent.

6.52pm. Peter Wellington with a slight primary vote lead in Nicklin, but booth-matching shows a huge and decisive swing to the LNP. Probably want more figures though.

6.51pm. Anna Bligh trailing on the primary vote in South Brisbane, and slightly behind on the primary vote. But Greens preferences might save her.

6.49pm. Antony cites a swing of 13 per cent, placing the result nearer Newspoll than the exit polls which had it slightly higher. However, it may yet change. The LNP has recovered Beaudesert, where its member Aidan McLindon had defected to the KAP, which was not unexpected.

6.47pm. Nothing appearing in the “predictions” column on the ABC results page, which is bothersome because it’s the best way to follow the action when seats are falling by the bucketload.

6.42pm. As Antony notes, early results hard to read exactly because of small rural booth results: assumptions are being made about Katter’s Australian Party preferences, which constitute a considerable share of the vote. However, the ABC computer is already set to tick over to a majority for the LNP. More than 20 seats have fallen, and it’s happening too quickly for me to keep up.

6.32pm. ABC computer already calling 22 seats for the LNP and one for Labor.

6.30pm. Jeff Seeney claims Katter’s Australian Party vote well short of what they would need on small booths.

6.26pm. Two small booths in from Dalrymple: very early days of course, but encouraging for KAP incumbent Shane Knuth on 50.0 per cent.

5.19pm. Sky’s exit poll shows a 15.3 per cent swing. They appear to have done the right thing this time and told us what the swing was, rather than publishing a bewildering two-party preferred figure without telling us what seats were polled, as they have done in the past. These were the five most marginal seats: Chatsworth and Everton in Brisbane, Broadwater on the Gold Coast, Cook on the Cape York Peninsula and Barron River in Cairns.

5.10pm. Peter Black at Essential Research relates on Twitter that a Galaxy exit poll conducted for Channel Nine has the LNP’s two-party lead at 63-37.

4.40pm. Closure of polls still over an hour away, but Sky News has published its first exit poll results, only providing material on the most important factor in determining vote choice. As usual, these are hard to read, because they apparently target only the five most marginal seats. If this is to be taken literally, they have chosen seats which are pretty meaningless in the context of this election: all will be easily won by the LNP. For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent. I presume respondents were asked in turn whether each of these issues were important to them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

837 comments on “Queensland election live”

Comments Page 3 of 17
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  1. [“Can there still be someone in the land who does not understand the power of money in elections?”]

    The power of money changed a majority of QLD’ers voting habits when Bligh upped rego’s 20% and scrapped the fuel subsidy. From that day on Bligh was gone.

    Nothing to do with Palmer and his measily donations.

  2. scarpat,

    Pensioners just got their half yearly rise. The $250 compensation will be paid as a lump sum in April/May.

  3. [With the new trend in parachuting in talent, the LNP could give Mr Palmer the Department of Mining and Energy.

    It would clarify governance arrangements quite neatly.]

    I’d rather give him foreign affairs… (QLDers are foreign to the rest of oz anyway). I thought his quip about CIA and greens was the funniest thing since Peter Sellers.

  4. Hah, The Australian’s rep is now playing ‘Devil’s Advocate’. There is just so much agreement between the reactionaries that it was getting highly boring.

  5. Of course, Clive Palmers was joking that the CIA fund the greens, right?????

    I had a Sam Kekovich moment “It all makes sense, you know it does” when I heard his revelation…. Bob Brown yelling at Bush in parlidement was part of the cover of the conspiracy…. lol…

  6. [Apparently, newman has been elected messiah. Anyone remember what happened to the last one?]

    GG,

    Alfred E. Newman is still the messiah…

  7. [Polls about to close, nearly time for real stuff, not hubris and crud.]

    Speaking of Krudd
    @KRuddMP tweeted: I’ve known Andrew Fraser for 20 years. Great talent. Great local member. We need him for the future. KRudd

  8. One thing is good I suppose, we can be reminded of just how bad life can get under (the thumb of) the Liberals.

  9. [Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 6:55 pm | Permalink
    Hah, The Australian’s rep is now playing ‘Devil’s Advocate’. There is just so much agreement between the reactionaries that it was getting highly boring.]

    Sallyanne Atkinson just said the bloke who was fixing her intercom in her apartment buiding will vote lnp. because of the carbon tax.
    really what a load of shit. she lives in a house at bardon

  10. GG

    [Pensioners just got their half yearly rise. The $250 compensation will be paid as a lump sum in April/May.]

    I do hope that the Federal Government ensures that the compensation is only paid after pensioners have signed a form which states, ‘I accept that this payment more than compensates me for any possible increase in my power bills. I also note that Mr Abbott has promised to take this $250 away from me if he is elected Prime Minister.’

  11. BTW had a laugh at the order of the ABC website news items

    [Queensland votes ahead of predicted landslide
    Outback SA braces for quake aftershocks]

    😀

  12. Sun Tzu said the wise Leader should be humble in his moment of greatest victory because he will also taste defeat eventually

  13. Mod Lib @ 91
    I dunno, do you guys have to be such sore losers?

    The thing that bugs me about Conservatives is that they are such sore winners! Watch ’em moan and bitch in their biggest victory for years.

  14. Mantis
    I am simply making an objective comment re the polls. I have made a poll prediction .
    I do not abuse people nor do I use profanity. I do not make partisan rants. Ergo I am fine with being banned for trolling as that will simply prove to me that you are unable to tolerate differing views and are therefore illiberal.
    The fact that I choose to go quiet after posting does seem to irk you. As a libertarian I take note of your viewpoint and accept that as a thesis point re the progressive left.
    No toleration of opinion dissonance and moral snobbery.

  15. [I’ve just called the election for the LNP… well done to them. hard lakhs to labor. and try again next time katter..]

    wal, tough titties,

    [TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Close
    7pm, 24 hrs before the QLD election. I call the election to LNP. Eat your heart out Antony Green
    6:59 PM – 23 Mar 12 via web · Details]

  16. [BK
    Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 7:06 pm | Permalink
    Wouldn’t it be funny if the continuing investigations find Can-Do in fact Can-Did!]
    There will be no investigations after tonight.

  17. Why does no one ask Carl RAckemann how much dough did he take from the apartheid government when he deserted Oz cricket in the mid 80s?

  18. Stanny, I keep telling you that I know perfectly well Morgan is biased to Labor, and you keep telling me that I’m wrong because Morgan is biased to Labor. If you’re too stupid to understand what’s wrong with that, I’ll ban you for being too stupid to contribute. If you’re doing it because you’re trying to rile me, you’re trolling and I’ll ban you for that reason.

  19. j6p
    Are you saying that in your opinion Mr Campbell will destroy or otherwise subvert any institutions that might investigate him?

  20. shellbell

    [Why does no one ask Carl RAckemann how much dough did he take from the apartheid government when he deserted Oz cricket in the mid 80s?]

    Because they know that it would reinforce those voting for him because they actually kind of think there was nothing really all that wrong with apartheid?

  21. [wal kolla
    Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 7:05 pm | Permalink
    I’ve just called the election for the LNP… well done to them. hard lakhs to labor. and try again next time katter..]

    Finns:

    I think he is predicting the 2015 election, so he wins!

  22. Is there a race on Finns?

    Surely, you cannot be talking about the Federal election???? Open your eyes and look at the baseball bats mate.

  23. [oerwar
    Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 7:11 pm | Permalink
    j6p
    Are you saying that in your opinion Mr Campbell will destroy or otherwise subvert any institutions that might investigate him?]

    the cmc cleared him. what other investigations are you on about?

  24. BTW, I know it is a bit belated but I was out of town when Mr Abbott made his targets comment.

    I just wish to make the point that, IMHO, the chap is a borderline narcissist/sociopath and that that comment is yet another example of his pathological inability to demonstrate anything vaguely like common decency.

    I do hope, for all of our sakes, the reactionaries take the opportunity to clean out their stable now that they know what sort of person they have on their hands.

  25. Tweet time.

    simon barry ‏ @simonjamesbarry

    LNP in Qld are a bunch of happy clappy religious nuts, red necks, shonky property developers and failed farmers. Good luck with that.

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