Queensland election live

9.25pm. ABC computer has Maryborough back to LNP gain, after lapsing to LNP ahead for a while there.

9.07pm. Though as Antony notes, what has saved Curtis Pitt in Mulgrave is the surge to Katter’s Australian Party in north Queensland, much of which has exhausted.

9.05pm. Labor members who distinguished themselves by suffering swings of less than 10 per cent: Di Farmer in Bulimba, who has her nose in front; Jason O’Brien, whose 4.5 per cent swing against was good but not good enough; Cameron Dick in Greenslopes, likewise good but not good enough; Curtis Pitt, who has had a big personal win in retaining Mulgrave against a swing of 6.6 per cent; Anna Bligh in South Brisbane, who has actually held South Brisbane quite comfortably; Mandy Johnstone in Townsville; and Simon Finn, who might yet hold in Yeerongpilly in the face of a 9 per cent swing, but is nonetheless behind.

9.04pm. Antony cautious about the LNP winning Maryborough.

8.49pm. ABC computer promotes Bulimba and Mulgrave from ALP ahead to ALP retain. Of the eight seats where they’re in front, there are now seven down as “ALP gain”, with only Mackay remaining as “ALP ahead”. Waterford has gone from “LNP ahead” to “LNP gain”. By this reckoning, Labor’s absolute best case scenario is now nine seats.

8.39pm. ABC computer has dialled Maryborough back from LNP gain to LNP ahead.

8.25pm. The KAP may yet have an outside hope in Thuringowa if Labor preferences favour them strongly. The primary votes are 36.0 per cent for the LNP, 30.6 per cent for the KAP and 27.4 per cent for labor. Antony Green appears not to think so though. Bob Katter sounding bullish, for what it’s worth.

8.18pm. Sorry, got confused there – it has stayed on eight. Mulgrave now up from ALP ahead to ALP retain.

8.12pm. ABC now down to seven seats with Labor ahead: retaining Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton, South Brisbane and Woodridge, ahead in Bulimba, Mackay and Mulgrave. LNP ahead in Waterford and Yeerongpilly. Everything else compared for the LNP, except Mount Isa and Dalrympe for Katter’s Australian Party, Nicklin and Gladstone retained by independents.

8.10pm. ABC computer now calling independent Chris Foley’s seat of Maryborough for the LNP.

7.56pm. ABC computer now has Labor ahead in only eight seats.

7.45pm. As noted by Antony, the KAP has not made huge gains out of coal seam gas in the Darling Downs: its strength remains very much off the back of Katter in the north.

7.44pm. Antony Green not buying Seeney’s line that Peter Wellington is in trouble in Nicklin.

7.42pm. ABC calling Ipswich West for LNP.

7.41pm. ABC calling South Brisbane for Anna Bligh.

7.31pm. Of the four independents, only Liz Cunningham in Gladstone is safe. Close contest in Maryborough between independent incumbent Chris Foley and LNP challenger Anne Maddern. Dissonance between the ABC computer (IND retain) and what Jeff Seeney says (LNP looking good) with Peter Wellington’s seat of Nicklin. LNP easily recovers Burnett, where Rob Messenger quit the party mid-term. Pretty clear I think that the KAP will win Mount Isa and Dalrymple, but no more.

7.30pm. The ABC website’s predictions columns has swung into action. Bundamba, Inala, Rockhampton and Woodridge, and is ahead in Bulimba, Mackay, Mulgrave, Nudgee and South Brisbane. They could conceivably win Logan, Mundingburra, Springwood and Waterford, but there are too few figures in from them. They are behind in Cook, Lytton, Townsville and Yeerongpilly, but not gone yet.

7.28pm. Jeff Seeney sounding confident about Nicklin, but the ABC computer is calling it for Peter Wellington.

7.24pm. With a quarter of the vote counted, the ABC computer has Anna Bligh edging back ahead in South Brisbane. But clearly Andrew Fraser and Cameron Dick are gone.

7.16pm. ABC’s two-party preferred projection is about 64-36, so the exit polls are looking good.

7.15pm. ABC computer projection, when bold calls are made where one or other party is merely “ahead”, now has Labor down to 10 from 14 earlier.

7.14pm. ABC computer graphic says three seats for KAP, but I can’t see anything beyond Mount Isa and Dalrymple.

7.13pm. Carl Rackemann (KAP) appears to be falling well short in Nanango; LNP’s Deb Frecklington to win comfortably.

7.07pm. Spare a thought for Peter Beattie’s old seat of Brisbane Central: he held it by 25 per cent after the 2001 election, ABC computer now calling it for LNP (results on site lagging behind what we’re getting on television).

7.06pm. Oh yeah, Ashgrove. ABC computer has Campbell Newman romping home by 9 per cent.

7.05pm. Peter Wellington firming up in Nicklin.

7.02pm. Antony’s casualty list: Everton, Broadwater, Cook, Barron River, Townsville North, Whitsunday, Southport, Townsville, Cairns, Mansfield, Kallangur, Pine Rivers, Mount Ommaney, Burleigh, Pumicestone, Mount Coot-tha, Redcliffe, Brisbane Central, Albert, Mundingburra, Greenslopes, Ashgrove, Murrumba, Stafford, Thuringowa, Algester, Stretton, Sunnybank, Lytton.

6.54pm. Courtesy of Psephos in comments, Labor expects to lose Capalaba, which you would expect given the overall swing: the margin is 9.7 per cent.

6.52pm. Peter Wellington with a slight primary vote lead in Nicklin, but booth-matching shows a huge and decisive swing to the LNP. Probably want more figures though.

6.51pm. Anna Bligh trailing on the primary vote in South Brisbane, and slightly behind on the primary vote. But Greens preferences might save her.

6.49pm. Antony cites a swing of 13 per cent, placing the result nearer Newspoll than the exit polls which had it slightly higher. However, it may yet change. The LNP has recovered Beaudesert, where its member Aidan McLindon had defected to the KAP, which was not unexpected.

6.47pm. Nothing appearing in the “predictions” column on the ABC results page, which is bothersome because it’s the best way to follow the action when seats are falling by the bucketload.

6.42pm. As Antony notes, early results hard to read exactly because of small rural booth results: assumptions are being made about Katter’s Australian Party preferences, which constitute a considerable share of the vote. However, the ABC computer is already set to tick over to a majority for the LNP. More than 20 seats have fallen, and it’s happening too quickly for me to keep up.

6.32pm. ABC computer already calling 22 seats for the LNP and one for Labor.

6.30pm. Jeff Seeney claims Katter’s Australian Party vote well short of what they would need on small booths.

6.26pm. Two small booths in from Dalrymple: very early days of course, but encouraging for KAP incumbent Shane Knuth on 50.0 per cent.

5.19pm. Sky’s exit poll shows a 15.3 per cent swing. They appear to have done the right thing this time and told us what the swing was, rather than publishing a bewildering two-party preferred figure without telling us what seats were polled, as they have done in the past. These were the five most marginal seats: Chatsworth and Everton in Brisbane, Broadwater on the Gold Coast, Cook on the Cape York Peninsula and Barron River in Cairns.

5.10pm. Peter Black at Essential Research relates on Twitter that a Galaxy exit poll conducted for Channel Nine has the LNP’s two-party lead at 63-37.

4.40pm. Closure of polls still over an hour away, but Sky News has published its first exit poll results, only providing material on the most important factor in determining vote choice. As usual, these are hard to read, because they apparently target only the five most marginal seats. If this is to be taken literally, they have chosen seats which are pretty meaningless in the context of this election: all will be easily won by the LNP. For what it’s worth, they have the cost of living at 69 per cent, delivery of state servies at 63 per cent, carbon tax at 44 per cent, mining tax at 35 per cent and Campbell Newman’s business dealings at 17 per cent. I presume respondents were asked in turn whether each of these issues were important to them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

837 comments on “Queensland election live”

Comments Page 14 of 17
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  1. Finns,

    Technologically there is no reason why super can’t be paid at exactly the same time and it should be made law that it is.

  2. [“And that is largely due to PJK.”]

    Yes but I am talking Rudd/Gillard here. Why did they kill the co-contributions scheme if they love super for low paid workers so much?

  3. Outlook after tonight, in my view:

    NT: Henderson loses government to CLP, no idea how badly.
    ACT: some seats may shift around but there should still be ample seats between the ALP and Greens for the ALP to retain govt.
    WA: Barnett re-elected, should get majority in own right.
    Fed: Coalition likely to win, even with Abbott as leader.
    Tas: Polling suggests the Libs could get the 13 seats required for govt, if not they will fall short but there may be pressure on the Greens to allow them to govern. This, of course, may change if Abbott is PM.
    SA: Libs just slightly favoured. However, with polling pretty level, Labor feeling a second wind with Weatherill and the Libs reverting to their infighting again, there will be a fight. A Lib PM may affect this contest. Barring ACT, of course, I rate this Labor’s best chance.
    Vic: Too difficult to tell. So many variables to consider regarding a government with a razor-thin majority.
    NSW: Far off but likely Coalition re-election albeit with reduced majority.

  4. geewiz it hasn’t been killed. i think you’ll find it is still there. the increase to 12% is a much better deal for ALL workers receiving SG conts.

  5. [Technologically there is no reason why super can’t be paid at exactly the same time and it should be made law that it is.]

    Kiddo, the “quickiest” deposit now is monthly. And then it takes another 4-6 weeks to actually get to your nominated fund because normally the Employer deposits to its fund and then that fund has to transferred to your own fund (If they are not the same)

    So on average employees lost about 2-3 months of earning on their Super. This is a RORT.

  6. Finny,

    The amount can be direct deposited into the account at any time. It can even be done over the net. They just choose not to do it that way.

  7. This election will have a huge effect on the next federal election. The ALP now have almost no infrastruture in 2 of the most populus states in Australia at the state level and they are going to have to win seats to govern federally at the next election. They are not going to have any state funded offices to help their candidates.

    As for the deflationite, NSW Liberals are failing? 64-36 was the last opinion poll, if that is failing LOLOLOLOLOLOL

  8. Couple of answers to earlier questions (pages back):
    1. Will, I have no direct knowledge of distribution of ALP prefs in LNP-vs-Katter seats except that on this page – http://virtualtallyroom.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2012/results/summary.html#5 – there are 3 such contests and in each of them the number of exhausted votes is huge. ALP voters tend to be an obedient lot who copy a HTV, and I think A Chisholm said they were only “directing” (meaning recommending) preferences in Mt Coot-tha. (Though some journo was saying today there were ALP HTVs in Thuringowa giving the no 2 to the Katterite. If they were issuing HTVs different from the registered ones that’s agin the law.)

    2. Someone asked about the threshold for being officially recognised as a party. If they have 10% of first prefs state-wide, only 3 members. Otherwise 9. See POQ Act 2001, s 112 , at http://corrigan.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/qld/consol_act/poqa2001241/s112.html Now looks like ALP has 8 (Tug-o-war team?) so they’ll officially be a Parliamentary party only on the 10% rule. Katterites won’t.

  9. Finns. believe me that ‘delaying’ tactics are done by both industry and retail funds. it would actually surprise you the shenanigans the industry funds get up to.

    Labor introduced a clearing house to speed up processing, but i think take up has been on the low side.

  10. [“But denying a pair to a sick man isn’t “just politics”, it’s just pathetic.”]

    A Pairing is not a parliamentry requirement it’s a favour given by the opposition… it’s a gentlemans agreement and there is argument as to whether Craig Thomson is a gentleman or not deserving of that favour.

    The Libs owe Labor nothing and certainly not Craig Thomson. The argument isn’t whether he is sick or not, it’s whether he is worthy of this favour.

    In my view the whole pairing thing is undemocratic… you are basically telling a SITTING MP they aren’t allowed to vote for their constituants because someone from a totally different party isn’t there. Our forefathers would be rolling in their graves if they knew this was happening.

  11. middle man

    So the ALP took form the miners, whose shareholding includes Colonial, Macquarie etc, who runs superannuation funds for Australians and will give about 10% of it back to the Australians in increase super contribution.

    I think there might be about 10% australians, who do not indirectly own shares in the mining companies

    Thanks for giving back what you taken

  12. zoidlord

    The problem with NSW ALP is that they are completely talentless, The ALP right gives safe seats to loyal time servers with little ability. The next ALP premier is definitely not in parliament yet

    The NSW ALP will at least be in power for 12 years

  13. [In my view the whole pairing thing is undemocratic… you are basically telling a SITTING MP they aren’t allowed to vote for their constituants because someone from a totally different party isn’t there.]

    But the fact that that person isn’t there is democratic, even though their constituents get deprived of their representative’s vote?

    [Our forefathers would be rolling in their graves if they knew this was happening.]

    Only those of our forefathers who are as stupid as you are.

  14. Gee Whizz,

    Cry me a river. If the LNP were so hell bent on representing their constituents then they wouldn’t spend most of their time out of the chamber.

  15. @dovif, Agree with NSW ALP being rubbish, that is pretty clear.

    I don’t agree with taking 12 years though.

    NSW is one of the biggest states with most populated in AU atm, so alot can go wrong.

  16. Gee Whiz
    I totally agree with you about the co-contribution. In fact I wanted it extended. I would rather the gov’t had given pensioners and unemployed the $1000 to put in though. Finding the approx $40 a week for it was next to impossible for a pensioner

  17. [In my view the whole pairing thing is undemocratic… you are basically telling a SITTING MP they aren’t allowed to vote for their constituants because someone from a totally different party isn’t there. ]

    Or you can think of it as the MP choosing to not vote in a particular division because they know at some stage they will not be able to be there for a vote and the ‘favour’ will be returned.

    The Speaker is also prevented from voting ‘for their constituents’ but this is also something the member chooses to give up.

  18. I think Frank’s had better days – either that or he has hankering for sitting in a big green chair while wearing black robes and white bands. He just booted Kezza for suggesting that reposting PB posts was boring and Puff for having a meal in Adelaide.

    I can understand how the poor bugger feels – Qld is a nightmare. But that’s a pretty steep attrition rate.

  19. I am obviously happy with the result although I have genuine concern about the size of the win and the state of the opposition. QLD has suffered for years by a poor opposition and deserves good government held to account by a good opposition.

    I blame the size of the win by the tactics used by Labor to spend so much energy personally targeting one person which meant they only ended up causing themselves great harm right across the state. It may have seemed a good strategy but in my opinion it was always ethically questionable and in the end a great many people agreed with that view. It turned a defeat into a debacle.

    In relation to the next three years I have more faith in the new government than obviously most people here and we will have to wait and see how things evolve.

  20. A Pairing is not a parliamentry requirement it’s a favour given by the opposition

    Yet another lie.

    Pairing is a convention that has endured for many years of our country’s federation.

    Lets just contrast that to yourself who has lied and fraudulently presented multiple identities on this blog in order to circumvent the blog standards and conventions.

    You have deliberately LIED about your identity in order to post here while banned.

    That speaks volumes about your lack of integrity and honesty.

    You are in no position to lecture or pontificate to anyone.

    If fact you should be apologising for your fraudulent, dishonest misrepresentation of yourself here and your racist comments previously.

    You need to apologies big time.

  21. for those ALP supporters cheering for a KAP win in thuringowa, if the KAP wins Thuringowa and a couple of National MP defeats to the KAP and they somehow comes to an agreement with the 2 independants. The ALP will sit on the cross benches

  22. DavidWH, I’m on the same page as you. Labor’s campaign was never going to work in my view and has probably contributed to the scale of their loss.

    [In relation to the next three years I have more faith in the new government than obviously most people here and we will have to wait and see how things evolve.]

    Yes. We’ve seen with Victoria and New South Wales that the new governments have really not done much, so if that’s what happens with the new LNP there’s really not a whole lot lost. I hope Newman manages to backtrack on his promise to repeal civil unions, as that would really be a shameful smear on Queensland’s history.

  23. Cheer up Space Kidette (and All)

    Everything comes in cycles. At this point in history we’re witnessing a triumph of Boganism.

    Queenslanders will get the Bogan’s Reward from the new government. It’s inevitable Express boganism at the ballot box, and naturally the elected government will dish it out to them accordingly.

    When that happens Queenslanders are going to need people of good will such as yourself for support as the painful lessons start hitting home. Be there for them as they wake up and look for a way out of their plight. In time they will be begging for progressive to take over from oppressive.

    Because these things are cyclical.

  24. [if the KAP wins Thuringowa and a couple of National MP defeats to the KAP and they somehow comes to an agreement with the 2 independants. The ALP will sit on the cross benches]

    That’s a whole load of unlikely ‘ifs’ dovif.

  25. Gee whiz A Pairing is not a parliamentry requirement it’s a favour given by the opposition…… the pairing thing is undemocratic

    it is an honesty system that works both ways. One side does it so that later on, the other will respond in kind. It is rather sweet really. Kind of like an invisible hand guiding people to an honest outcome.

    If they didn’t pair, then that would be undemocratic as the Parliamentary numbers would not be what we voted for. Pairing maintains the last election result, so that all voters can be happy knowing their vote is still counted the same way everyday.

  26. Mackay should be won by the LNP on postal and KAP preferences.
    Yeerongpilly is to early to call, but LNP ahead.
    Bulimba for ALP to retain.

    7 for labor.
    2 for Katter and 2 other independants.

    I think katter’s party polled well, all things considered. He may well be the 3rd force of Australian politics one day.

  27. [Only those of our forefathers who are as stupid as you are.]

    I think William is experiencing a little fool-fatigue, and understandably so.

  28. [for those ALP supporters cheering for a KAP win in thuringowa, if the KAP wins Thuringowa and a couple of National MP defeats to the KAP and they somehow comes to an agreement with the 2 independants. The ALP will sit on the cross benches]

    Big “if”, as LTEP says. There was talk some talk Howard Hobbs (Warrego) might do so, but I think that would be pretty ballsy of him in the wake of an election result like that.

  29. There is no law and nothing in the constitution regarding pairing. If someone forgot to vote in an election it is bad luck, they do not get their say, if someone did not turn up to a cricket game, you play with 10 players

    It is just a old protocal, well in the old days, no government attacks people under parliament priviledge like Anna did to Newman as well

  30. [Ah yes, Kezza. Just lifted the ban on her. ]

    Well that’s a smart move William. GeeWizz in and Kezza out was a fundamentally unhealthy direction for your blog to take. You need smart and passionate more than you need blinkered and dull.

  31. @dovif wtf has that to do with paring ?

    “no government attacks people under parliament priviledge like Anna did to Newman as well”

    Comparing two different situations.

  32. My quick and dirty pendulum: In 2015, Labor needs 5% to win 20 seats, 10% to win 30 seats, 13% to win government.

    ALP SEATS
    ————————————–
    01 INALA 06.7 (-14.9)
    02 SOUTH BRISBANE 05.4 (-09.6)
    03 WOODRIDGE 04.6 (-20.8)
    04 ROCKHAMPTON 04.2 (-13.8)
    05 BUNDAMBA 02.1 (-19.2)
    06 MULGRAVE 01.4 (-06.7)
    07 BULIMBA 00.8 (-07.0)
    08 MACKAY 00.5 (-16.2)

    LNP SEATS
    ————————————–
    09 YEERONGPILLY 00.4 (-09.2)
    10 LYTTON 01.5 (-13.8)
    11 GREENSLOPES 01.9 (-08.8)
    12 WATERFORD 02.0 (-18.4)
    13 NUDGEE 02.8 (-17.0)
    14 SANDGATE 03.0 (-15.4)
    15 COOK 03.4 (-05.6)
    16 CAPALABA 03.9 (-13.5)
    17 IPSWICH 04.2 (-20.9)
    18 BRISBANE CENTRAL 04.4 (-10.4)
    19 LOGAN 04.5 (-18.4)
    20 TOWNSVILLE 05.2 (-09.3)
    21 MOUNT COOT-THA 05.3 (-10.5)
    22 KEPPEL 06.0 (-13.6)
    23 MORAYFIELD 06.3 (-15.4)
    24 ASHGROVE 06.5 (-13.6)
    25 STAFFORD 07.0 (-14.3)
    26 CAIRNS 07.2 (-11.3)
    27 IPSWICH WEST 07.3 (-16.9)
    28 FERNY GROVE 09.1 (-13.6)
    29 MURRUMBA 09.2 (-16.4)
    30 ALGESTER 09.4 (-18.6)
    31 MUNDINGBURRA 09.5 (-16.1)
    32 STRETTON 09.8 (-19.3)
    33 BARRON RIVER 09.9 (-12.2)
    34 TOOWOOMBA NORTH 10.0 (-13.3)
    35 REDCLIFFE 10.2 (-15.8)
    36 SUNNYBANK 10.3 (-21.1)
    37 BURDEKIN 10.5 (-07.3)
    38 WHITSUNDAY 10.7 (-13.9)
    39 MIRANI 11.2 (-10.7)
    40 BROADWATER 11.3 (-13.3)
    41 MANSFIELD 11.3 (-15.7)
    42 BURLEIGH 11.7 (-16.5)
    43 ALBERT 11.9 (-18.4)
    44 PUMICESTONE 12.6 (-17.6)
    45 KALLANGUR 12.8 (-17.5)

    Swing needed for ALP majority

    46 EVERTON 13.1 (-14.5)
    47 PINE RIVERS 14.0 (-18.6)
    48 LOCKYER 14.3 (-06.7)
    49 CHATSWORTH 14.5 (-14.6)
    50 SPRINGWOOD 15.8 (-19.8)
    51 MOUNT OMMANEY 16.0 (-20.8)
    52 SOUTHPORT 16.1 (-19.6)
    53 CLEVELAND 18.3 (-18.0)
    54 BUNDABERG 18.5 (-12.5)
    55 GLASS HOUSE 20.4 (-14.6)
    56 REDLANDS 20.7 (-20.6)
    57 CURRUMBIN 20.8 (-13.9)
    58 CLAYFIELD 20.9 (-15.1)
    59 MAROOCHYDORE 20.9 (-08.0)
    60 ASPLEY 21.3 (-16.9)
    61 GAVEN 21.4 (-20.7)
    62 INDOOROOPILLY 21.4 (-15.5)
    63 CALOUNDRA 21.8 (-15.6)
    64 HERVEY BAY 22.0 (-15.5)
    65 TOOWOOMBA SOUTH 22.4 (-14.2)
    66 COOMERA 23.8 (-21.8)
    67 MOGGILL 24.5 (-13.2)
    68 GREGORY 25.5 (-11.2)
    69 NOOSA 25.7 (-05.8)
    70 MUDGEERABA 25.8 (-21.8)
    71 BUDERIM 26.1 (-11.8)
    72 KAWANA 26.5 (-19.6)
    73 MERMAID BEACH 26.9 (-16.1)
    74 WARREGO 28.0 (-03.6)
    75 SOUTHERN DOWNS 30.3 (-09.2)
    76 SURFERS PARADISE 30.4 (-13.9)

    No 2-party majority
    ————————————–
    77 BEAUDESERT (LNP)
    78 BURNETT (LNP)
    79 CALLIDE (LNP)
    80 CONDAMINE (LNP)
    81 DALRYMPLE (KAP)
    82 GLADSTONE (Ind)
    83 GYMPIE (LNP)
    84 HINCHINBROOK (LNP)
    85 MARYBOROUGH (LNP)
    86 MOUNT ISA (KAP)
    87 NANANGO (LNP)
    88 NICKLIN (Ind)
    89 THURINGOWA (LNP)

  33. Dovif, you’re right that there’s no law or constitutional guarantee of pairing. It’s driven, as most things in politics are, by self interest. Political parties realise that one day the shoe will be on the other foot.

  34. [Everything comes in cycle]

    Of course it does. There will come a time when those crying tonight will be gloating and those gloating will be crying.

    The pathetic, desperate behaviour exhibited by Labor (and rhetoric of its hacks) will be exhibited instead by the Coalition and its hacks

    The arrogant hubris demonstrated by the Coalition and its hacks will be instead exhibited by Labor and its hacks.

    As you said, cycles.

  35. zoidlord

    They are old protocals, if Anna can choose to ignore one, and you guys do not condemn her, Abbott can choose to ignore one too

  36. William Bowe
    Posted Saturday, March 24, 2012 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    Dave, I’m not GeeWizz’s number one fan (vid. #680), but I think that’s a little unfair.

    Tried to reply and the website fell over.

    Anyway..

    Sorry William but I am not being unfair.

    Truthie/ GeeWizz has used multiple user names here while banned and you banned him amongst other reasons for using racist comments.

    He is in no position to lecture.

Comments are closed.

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