Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, which combines the results of the last two weekends’ surveys, is Labor’s weakest so far this year: their primary vote is down two points on the poll of March 3-4 to 37 per cent, with the Coalition up two to 45.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 10.5 per cent. The Coalition has strengthened two points on both two-party preferred measures, now leading 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52-48 on preferences as they divided at the 2010 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,425 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [“The most conservative thing a woman can do is have a baby.”
    What the fuck does that actually MEAN?]
    It’s Shaggin Sunday? 😛

  3. Mr Abbott – on a vacant Sunday – cannot compete with CanDo. So – like a loitering dog – he’s sniffing around looking for a lampost to mark. Impending deep thoughts in the same genre are: “The most conservative thing a person can do is eat.”, “The most conservative thing a man can do is have a beer.” and “The most conservative thing a person can do is climb a tree.”

    Eat your heart out Plato. Tony went back to England as a Rhodes scholar, y’know.

  4. LNRW
    Can’t see the results of such activity in the poorer sections of the community getting too much funding.

    Cuppa
    Yes, it’s good spin. “I’ve had a baby so I must be a Conservative so I’d better vote for Tony Abbott.” That sort of thing.

    Just more proof that for Abbott & his allies absolutely everything’s fair game. Remember when the ghastly Mirabella thought it OK to fling the insult “taxpayer funded nanny”?

  5. It seems to me that a lot of the dissatisfaction with Labor stems from A lack of acknowledgement of the impacts of the GFC – as evinced by some of the earlier comments.

    Yes, governments have raised prices for services; yes, credit is harder to access; yes,there is uncertainty about employment prospects – yes, thes are all legacies of a world wide global catastrophe which has affected all of us.

    Labor was in government everywhere when the GFC hit. Therefore it was Labor governments which had to make the hard decisions. Therefore there must be a problem with Labor.

    The GFC had real effects on our economy and on people’s lives, and it still continues to – yet we talk as if it either never happened or was some kind of momentary inconvenience we successfully worked around.

    I’m not saying Labor doesn’t have problems and doesn’t need to reform – that’s a permanent given for any organization. What I am saying is that we are – to some extent – connecting the wrong causes to effects.

  6. It seems to me that a lot of the dissatisfaction with Labor stems from A lack of acknowledgement of the impacts of the GFC – as evinced by some of the earlier comments.

    Yes, governments have raised prices for services; yes, credit is harder to access; yes,there is uncertainty about employment prospects – yes, thes are all legacies of a world wide global catastrophe which has affected all of us.

    Labor was in government everywhere when the GFC hit. Therefore it was Labor governments which had to make the hard decisions. Therefore there must be a problem with Labor.

    The GFC had real effects on our economy and on people’s lives, and it still continues to – yet we talk as if it either never happened or was some kind of momentary inconvenience we successfully worked around.

    I’m not saying Labor doesn’t have problems and doesn’t need to reform – that’s a permanent given for any organization. What I am saying is that we are – to some extent – connecting the wrong causes to effects.

  7. [“The most conservative thing a woman can do is have a baby.”
    What the fuck does that actually MEAN?]

    It means that only when a woman has a baby does she really understand what family, country and the associated values are really about.

    Something which our deliberately barren prime minister and her supporters will never understand.

  13. zoomster # 2355/6 – sadly yes there is lots of evidence for this, governments get credit for good times they didnt create (Howard most recent eg here) and punished for bad time s (this is hwy Obama struggling against the VERY PEOPLE who gave us the GFC) even if their response was exemplary

    People vote on how they feel not on the basis of anything more sophisticated. Given that Howard successfully promoted a culture of middle class entitlement and dependency, (Why cant I have welfare benefits on $280k? Why do they hate us so blah blah blah) we are clearly in trouble.

    And thats before you add in the media owned by billionaires

    A miracle really that the polls are only as bad as they are federally.

  14. Have put my daughter on the plane after a great weekend, not a good Sunday in Queensland, wonder if there will be any ground or water left un dug or exploited now Clive Palmer has been ‘elected”?

  15. BTW was looking at online SMH etc, don’t think Tony Abbott would get much comfort from the poll re his “nanny state” Maybe all the Libs are away celebrating QLD

  18. I am hoping Labor argues against the Nanny State on policy and good governance grounds, not on how much it will cost.

    It’s a pure thought bubble, true, and is designed to appeal basely to the hip pocket and the sense of entitlement many men and women have about themselves and their precious babies, and yes, it’s a direct challenge to the government’s slow unwinding of middle class welfare.

    But it’ll still be popular. The potential beneficiaries will want the Coalition to find a way. They’ll forget all the “frugal in government” malarkey. Many will vote for the Coalition over this and similar measures.

    The argument against it – it’s a bad policy and the wrong way to apportion public money – has to be sold and sold hard. Solid, logical rebuttal is the only way to defeat it, and many other carrots Abbott is dangling in front of the Me generation of new Mums and Dads.

  20. Yep, so very quiet. Maybe everyone is doing what I’m doing – off for a quiet glass of wine or six before dinner.

    That poll reaction to Abbott’s latest attempt at a policy can’t be what he hoped for. He seems determined to find a way to reward wealthy families for producing the ‘right kind’ of child while making sure low income families get tossed a few crumbs if they are lucky.

    How nice of him to offer to provide government subsidised nannies so his target audience can spend more time at tennis, the hairdresser or having long lunches with the girls. Probably another bright idea from his unmarried and childless daughters.

  23. If william’s around…

    William, I see in the Courier-Mail that Campbell “will be sworn in on Monday” as Premier.

    How can he be sworn in if he is not a member of parliament, and won’t be until the seat is formally declared?

    If he already held Ashgrove he would be the continuing member, thus could be sworn in, but as he is a new candidate, and not previously in the parliament, I would have thought he won’t be officially the member for Ashgrove until the formal declaration of the polls and thus not eligible to be sworn in as Premier.

  25. [BB
    Seems a good point.]

    Or is this another “first”?

    LOTO before he entered parliament, and now premier before he enters parliament?

  26. [Or is this another “first”?

    LOTO before he entered parliament, and now premier before he enters parliament?]
    BB
    Under the reign of Palmer anything could happen.

  27. I mean, Carr had to go through all the dumb protocols before he could be sworn in as Foreign Minister – election by a joint sitting of the NSW parliament, induction into the Senate etc. – so why should Newman be exempt from the formalities?

  28. BB,

    I think the convention is that candidates have three months to get them selves sorted.

    The same principle applied to John Gorten when he became PM when old Harold went for a swim. He was made PM and then they held the bi election for Higgins which was Holt’s seat.

  29. [zoidlord
    Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 at 5:59 pm | Permalink
    @mari/2369

    Is it me or Media now going after Abbott – now that bligh is gone ?]

    I don’t get too hopeful not while the like of Michelle G Shaun Carney etc are around, what did Insiders do today, I was enjoying a brunch with my daughter so have no idea, or Paul B on Meet the Press?

  30. The rules in Queensland are different now that Clive Palmer owns the state and the government. If Clive wants his premier sworn in on Monday then by God that’s what will happen. If anyone questions the legal ins and outs Clive will simply sue them.

  31. @mari/2379

    true.

    @loeone/2380

    We know that LNP=owned by mining magnets, just a matter of time before NSW & QLD wakes up to that fact.

  32. BB, it’s purely a convention that the Premier and ministers be members of parliament. The federal constitution requires that they be outside of parliament for no longer than three months, but I can’t see anything comparable in the Queensland constitution. In any case, I don’t think anyone’s legally a member of parliament until the writs are returned, so Campbell Newman is no differently placed from anybody else. The procedure is for the Premier to tender her resignation and advise the Governor to call on the appropriate person to form a government, which in this case is Newman.

  33. 2378

    The Commonwealth Constitution specifies a 3 month maximum outside Parliament for Commonwealth ministers.

    Someone posted here a while ago that there was no requirement in the Queensland Constitution for a minister to be an MP.

  35. [BB, it’s purely a convention that the Premier and ministers be members of parliament.]

    Right, so do we have the supposed guardians (indeed the self-proclaimed inventors) of the conventions now feeling free to break them? Again?

    [The federal constitution requires that they be outside of parliament for no longer than three months, but I can’t see anything comparable in the Queensland constitution.]

    So it’s a convention, then. One that the LNP feels able to break?

    [In any case, I don’t think anyone’s legally a member of parliament until the writs are returned, so Campbell Newman is no differently placed from anybody else.]

    Yeah but if you’re already the member, then you “lose” your seat and instantly get it back when the writs are returned. In other words you were always the member.

    I on;ly ask the question because if, say, Bob Carr had been sworn in as FM before he was in the Senate formally (it took a week or so from memory) there would have been absolute hell to pay re. “trashing our cherished Westminster conventions” etc.

    GG’s point about Gorton is wrong, I think. There is nothing saying that a PM can’t come from the Senate. Nothing at all. The taking of a Reps seat was to rectify the conventional position, not to comply with the constitution.

  38. http://www.theage.com.au/business/following-the-mining-tax-leader-20120323-1vp69.html

    [Following the mining tax leader
    March 24, 2012

    Australia has inspired other countries to put a levy on their riches, write Peter Ker and Clancy Yeates.

    ……………..

    Ghana is not alone in following Australia’s lead: governments in Mongolia, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Venezuela and many more nations have recently sought – with varying degrees of intensity – to take a bigger slice of their resource riches.

    Some have ruled with a heavy hand, threatening to enforce compulsory divestments and nationalisation upon privately held assets.

    As Australia’s tax secured passage through Parliament this week, the claims that it would turn mining companies away towards friendlier jurisdictions overseas seemed weaker than ever.

    …………

    Far from being a bad place to invest, a recent report by American mining analysts Behre Dolbear suggests Australia is the world’s most attractive mining destination.

    The Denver-based advisory firm said ”almost every minerals producing nation” had attempted to raise taxes in recent years, and their 2012 rankings declared Australia to be the most attractive destination ahead of Canada and Chile.]

    http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8440974/swan-reinforces-surplus-pledge

    [Swan reinforces surplus pledge
    18:06 AEDT Sun Mar 25 2012

    Treasurer Wayne Swan will reinforce Labor’s pledge to return the budget to surplus in May at a speech to a group of economists this week.]
    more in each article

  40. Thank Dee might just amble over and have a look at your aptly named blog, them I am going to go have something to eat , very quietly as have discovered I am not as young even in my mind as my daughter or have the stamina of her, I need a rest

  41. Actually, I’m having trouble thinking of any other time or place in Australian history (except perhaps the very first election in 1901 or whenever) when the Premier or PM after an election has EVER been immediately prior to that election been a non-member of parliament.

  42. Queensland Constitution:

    [81 Continuation of membership of Legislative Assembly
    A person who, immediately before the commencement of
    section 10, was a member of the Legislative Assembly
    continues as a member of the Legislative Assembly and is
    taken to have satisfied the oath or affirmation requirement
    under section 22.]

    So anyone who was already a member, remains as a member without even the need for a swearing in, if re-elected.

    Doesn’t apply to Can-Do, though. He wasn’t a member.

  43. Has not the mining boom sucked the lifeblood out of the country with respect to –
    … very high AUD that has crushed the tourism and export manufacturing industries?
    … voracious demand on the provision of taxpayer funded infrastructure?
    … voracious demand on limited skilled resources?
    … forcing up the wages required to keep or secure non-mining workers?
    … etc?

    How can we NOT contemplate and introduce a means of dealing with this now structural imbalance?

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