Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, which combines the results of the last two weekends’ surveys, is Labor’s weakest so far this year: their primary vote is down two points on the poll of March 3-4 to 37 per cent, with the Coalition up two to 45.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 10.5 per cent. The Coalition has strengthened two points on both two-party preferred measures, now leading 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52-48 on preferences as they divided at the 2010 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,425 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [ “The most conservative thing a woman can do is have a baby” Tony Abbott … just now on 3AW ]

    Spur212 – even outside the holy sacrament of marriage?

  2. Dr John

    Good question. Paralysed by the amount of issues Abbott has managed to bring up in one single line. I’m sure it will be thoroughly dissected on here

  3. K & confessions,

    I understand that u r hurting right now at QLD Labor’s dramatic pummelling by the electorate.

    It is amusing to me that u feel that u have to talk about the QLD Greens Party’s performance (surely the party is irrelevant in your eyes anyway?) instead of focusing on an honest analysis of your party’s performance and reasons for such a humiliating drubbing.

  4. “Yes, unfulfillable promises are a short term strategy that comes back to bite you on the bum. May it turn out to be a big bulldog with huge jaws!”

    In a perfect world, maybe. Why would anyone thing that the LNP are going to get unfavourable treatment from the media? It will be business as usual for them and as they have managed to convince millions to vote against their own interests, probably permanently, spinning Clive Palmer calling in markers all over the state will be a walk in the park. And they will do it while finding imaginary black holes in the same places Clive needs/wants to do business.

    My friends in Qld are probably that state in microcosm. No education, working for peanuts, huge mortgages but they swallowed Hansonism/Howardism whole. And backed up for more. They blame the ALP for things that are clearly down to their own lack of planning and while they live in virtual poverty, they wholeheartedly buy into the “no billionaire left behind” philosophy. Why? Because it’s on the radio, on their TV and if they read a paper, they’d find it there as well.

  5. bemused
    [It’s actually a reflection of the reality of single member electorates.]
    Don’t let facts intrude on their reality.

    Shock, horror! but I do not find the drop in the Greens vote unsurprising…totally expected it. When an electorate is angry and wants to see an incumbent government swept from office, a minor party such as the Greens will not gain the benefit in an increase in votes.

  6. bemused:

    The Greens were unable to convert any support for its campaign on CSG for eg into electoral support – their vote went backwards.

    I think the Greens would be disappointed at that.

  7. [It is amusing to me that u feel that u have to talk about the QLD Greens Party’s performance]

    I’m sure you do. What’s even more amusing however, is that it was only on the last page that you were nonchalantly declaring people can comment about anything they want, and encouraging Kerse to do just that. Now when the discussion is about something you feel uncomfortable about, you want us to stop and find it oh-so-amusing.

  8. confessions,
    [Now when the discussion is about something you feel uncomfortable about, you want us to stop and find it oh-so-amusing.]

    Typical verballing and misrepresentation by you.

    I am feeling very relaxed and comfortable 🙂

    To suggest that I am trying to shut down the discussion is fanciful, though kudos to u for having such an ‘imaginative’ mind. Creativity is a trait to be nurtured.

  9. confessions @ 2307

    bemused:

    The Greens were unable to convert any support for its campaign on CSG for eg into electoral support – their vote went backwards.

    I think the Greens would be disappointed at that.

    The greens are a sideshow, with all due respects to Peg.

    This is typical of what happens in a very polarised electorate. Minor parties tend to go backwards as collateral damage. Bob Katter’s party also underperformed.

  10. Roy Orbison @ 2305

    [ My friends in Qld are probably that state in microcosm. No education, working for peanuts, huge mortgages but they swallowed Hansonism/Howardism whole. And backed up for more. They blame the ALP for things that are clearly down to their own lack of planning and while they live in virtual poverty, they wholeheartedly buy into the “no billionaire left behind” philosophy. Why? Because it’s on the radio, on their TV and if they read a paper, they’d find it there as well. ]

    Unfortunately there are enough people with this world view in Australia (particularly in Qld, NSW and WA) to keep the ALP out of power for very long time. It was only when enough of them realised that workchoices could hurt them and their kids that they actually voted in their own self-interest. I think that without workchoices Howard would still be PM.

    This unfortunate reality explains why Abbott’s basic pitch is ‘vote for me and I wil bring bck the Howard years’.

  11. [I am feeling very relaxed and comfortable]

    Which is a curious thing to say, given you felt the need to run commentary about the stuff people were commenting on, and so soon after declaring folk could comment about any aspect of the Qld election.

    Whatever.

  12. bemused:

    I recall (perhaps incorrectly) that the same thing happened to the Greens in the Victorian election.

    Perhaps it’s the case that voters see the Greens as having greater relevence federally than at a state level? And to that end we’ll know the result of the Greens anti CSG campaigns in Qld at the next federal election.

    But yes, the Greens are indeed the sideshow.

  13. [They blame the ALP for things that are clearly down to their own lack of planning and while they live in virtual poverty, they wholeheartedly buy into the “no billionaire left behind” philosophy.]
    Mate, I’ve been a Labor voter since 1982 (when I turned 18), Yesterday I voted Greens, it took me 5 minutes of staring at the page and introspective analysis but I couldn’t vote 1 Qld Labor (Labor was second, I couldn’t bring myself to vote for Tories no matter what).
    Why?
    Three years ago I’d buy a monthly train ticket which would give me one day free a week, now I have to pay over 150% more for my daily commute to work, second only to London and Oslo and at least two times a week I’m late in getting to work or home. People who used to buy yearly tickets are paying upto $2000 more per year.
    Three years ago we used to have the cheapest petrol in the country because the government didn’t tax petrol. Anna decided AFTER the election to start taxing for petrol. We now pay the highest for petrol in any capital city in the country.
    Three years ago there was no suggestion that anything would be sold. Within weeks of the election a huge fire sale of state assets was announced.
    I’m sorry, I’d love to say that there was a huge “its time” factor and the electorate was just changing for the sake of it but the fact is Anna screwed us here in Brisbane. I’d love to say that there are lots of rednecks up here that decided to simply vote for nutbags but the truth is the Labor party forgot who they should be representing. Will the LNP do any better, I doubt it, but I don’t think they can do any worse than Anna has over the last three years. 🙁

  14. Actually I got it wrong, for the people that commute from Nambour its around an extra $5 to 6 THOUSAND. It can’t be said they were not told, this was from the Courier Mail in January when the raised the fares 15% for the third straight year. Don’t think that had an effect, look at the swing on the Brisbane fringes.

    [“People who commute from the Sunshine Coast, for example, are looking at paying an extra $5000 or $6000 a year in fares because of the loss of the periodical ticket. Politically it’s going to be disastrous.”]

    To those that can’t figure it out here’s whats happened over the last three years.
    Public transport fares have risen to such an extent that it is not more cost effective for people to DRIVE in from the outlying suburbs.
    The roads have been getting more and more congested as people have started driving, the price of parking in and around the city has gone up, alienating more people. Road maintenance bills have been steadily increasing although hidden amongst the flood damage over the last few years. Petrol prices have been going up as well so cutting the tax, even if it only represents a few dollars per tank at most has stuck in peoples minds.

  15. Smaug @ 2316

    Out of curiosity, what do you pay for a weekly train ticket and over what distance? Perhaps you can point me to a website?

    I understood that the petrol thing was the withdrawal of a subsidy, something that was long overdue and should never have been there in the first place.

    Doing things after an election that you said you wouldn’t do or gave no indication you would is never going to go down well with the electorate. This is why Abbott and co have put so much effort into portraying Julia Gillard as having done this and getting it firmly established in the mind of many voters. It is Labor’s folly that it has insufficiently contested this. Same goes for ‘Pink Batts’, BER and all the other emotional triggers that the Libs have taken so much effort to embed into the consciousness of the electorate. All BS of course, but they have managed to do it.

  16. @Smaug/2318

    The Roads thing is BS, they been doing that for at least 10-20 years (The Roads).

    I remember first moving into Queensland from NSW.

    The Roads were quiet, single lane, now they are all double lanes double sided (double up and double down).

  17. Unfortunately I expect to be well and truly screwed by Cando and the LNP over the next 3 to 50 years. The man can’t lie straight in bed but given that he’s in Bed with a certain mining magnate he probably wouldn’t have room anyway 😉

  18. I used to drive to work 10 years ago (I worked in Eagle farm at the time), the Bruce highway was always congested of a morning. They six laned the Bruce highway since then and it’s made no bloody difference, still just as congested of a morning (thankfully I don’t drive anymore).

  19. Smaug @ 2324

    Yes, I found that website and have been checking it out.

    By way of comparison, a daily zone 1 & 2 ticket in Melbourne is $11.08 unless you are too stupid to use Myki and then it is $11.90. A weekly is $55.40 and a monthly $186.60.

    Melbourne only has 2 zones but I note Brisbane has 23 and I suspect yours cover a much greater distance from the CBD. you might be getting into distances which would put you outside the Melbourne area and into regional services.

    I had my first experience of your train service earlier this month and was favourably impressed.

  20. Smaug

    Another comparison, a daily return from Seymour (approx 100km) is $19.00 (off peak) or $27.00 (peak). A weekly is $78.00 and a monthly $280.90. What do you make of that?

    The road phenomenon seems to occur everywhere. Build a road and it quickly fills up. Roads are expensive and it makes better sense to build public transport so roads are only used when really necessary.

  21. I’m sure people will be shocked to hear that the Sun Herald has described Abbott’s PPL policy as proof he’s becoming ‘prime minister in waiting’. 😉

  22. Smaug,
    I assume the papers have been full of this for years. Ditto TV and radio. Do you expect things will change any time soon? That’s my point. People are suffering all over the place. Do you thinks it’s cheap to get around in Sydney? Do you think we enjoyed sitting back watching Qld get subsidised petrol? No to both. The reality is that Queensland, like the rest of Australia, like the rest of the world, expects to be kept in the manner in which they are accustomed. The real problem is, politically, the media only reports one side of the story and they generally side with the super rich. No surprises there.

    How about getting back to us when things start improving up there. Should be in a week or two, if the press and the Newman campaign is to be believed. If things get worse, I’m sure it will be in the Courier Mail. By the way, what is the hate radio station up there and who is the foul breath behind the spittle infected microphone?

  23. Roy Orbison @ 2331

    People are suffering all over the place. Do you thinks it’s cheap to get around in Sydney? Do you think we enjoyed sitting back watching Qld get subsidised petrol? No to both.

    The Qld subsidised petrol was courtesy of the Qld taxpayer. It was crazy and unsustainable.

    The era of cheap energy, particularly petroleum products, has passed. We need to all get used to it and governments need to invest heavily in public transport.

    Priority needs to be taken off roads as a solution to anything. They aren’t.

  24. @bemused/2332

    Is 100% Correct.

    More Public Transport
    More Sustainable Energy
    More Infrastructure Networks (such as NBN).

  25. zoidlord @ 2333
    Indeed.

    NBN of course has the potential to replace a lot of journeys by allowing remote working from home or regional centres, teleconferences etc.

    I also left out bicycle paths. No, I am not a Green fetishist, but the reality is bicycles are a good means of transport and have spin-offs such as health benefits.

    Thee has been a bit in the media recently about the disturbing trend to kids being driven to school. This is insane.

  26. [By the way, what is the hate radio station up there and who is the foul breath behind the spittle infected microphone?]

    A joint called 4BC. One of the Liberaljocks is ex-Howard Minister, Gary Hardgrave.

  27. BK, Everyone seems to be at the latest Queensland thread, Breakdown broken down. (Great pun there by William, don’t you think?)

  28. [ This has got to be the quietest PB day ever! ]

    BK, I will fix that!
    When you travel over to Victoria are you going to take the resident PBer’s out to lunch as per the new custom?

  29. I agree BK.

    “The most conservative thing a woman can do is have a baby” Tony Abbott

    He said that a couple of hours ago. Pretty much dead silence. I expected moral outrage, dissection and posters. Not a thing

  30. http://afr.com/p/technology/china_huawei_banned_from_nbn_9U9zi1oc3FXBF3BZdRD9mJ

    [China’s Huawei banned from NBN
    PUBLISHED: 24 Mar 2012 00:01:48 | UPDATED: 24 Mar 2012 19:34:19

    Geoffrey Barker and David Ramli

    The federal government has banned Chinese technology giant Huawei from participating in multibillion- dollar tenders to supply equipment to the national broadband network because of concerns over cyber attacks originating in China.

    But Huawei is fighting the ban vigorously in public and by using diplomatic channels. It plans to announce its sponsorship of the Canberra Raiders rugby league football team in a bid to lift its profile in the national capital.

    Huawei sources have also hinted that the Chinese government will retaliate strongly against Australia if the ban on the company’s tenders is not lifted.

    The moves come despite numerous efforts by Huawei to soften its image. The company has been accused of having links to the Chinese government. Its chief executive, Ren Zhengfei, was a member of the People’s Liberation Army and he has never agreed to a media interview. The issue is now emerging as a major test of relations with Australia’s biggest trading partner.

    But the government remains unrepentant with Attorney-General Nicola Roxon standing firm on the decision.]

    http://afr.com/p/technology/calls_that_go_unanswered_5gKktZ94DR1YKBM9stDRTM

    [Calls that go unanswered
    PUBLISHED: 24 Mar 2012 00:01:48 | UPDATED: 24 Mar 2012 02:41:25

    Michael Dwyer
    The origins and ownership of Huawei Technologies, the second-biggest phone equipment maker in the world, are shrouded in mystery.]
    more in each article

  31. In Adelaide, there are no weekly tickets. You can buy a 10-trip Multi-trip ticket. A trip is two hours of public transport, including changing to any mode eg Train, bus, tram. Two hours means you can get on at 9am, validate the ticket and use it for the next two hours, off and on any bus, tram or train, even getting on again at 10.59am for a ride to the farthest stop for that vehicle as long as you do not get off.

    A full fare Multitrip costs $30.90c which is enough for a five day working week.
    We have a smaller system due to size but a smaller population to support it, so why are our fares so much less?

    Seniors also ride free off-peak, e.g. weekdays from 9am to 3pm and all day during weekends and public holidays.

     http://www.adelaidemetro.com.au/ticketing/fares 

  32. Re the State Of Adelaide Public Transport.
    I blame the evil Labor government.

    Have any of you checked out our O-Bahn? Bluddy Ace!
    It was a child of both parties, started by the Liberals when they canned Dunstan’s light rail project, but completed by Labor; it is a beautiful and efficient thing.

    The construction of the O-Bahn, rather than the previously touted Modbury Freeway, was motivated by a desire to reduce car dependency. $6 million was used for the redevelopment of the Torrens Gorge, in which the Torrens Linear Park was created. About 150,000 trees, plants and shrubs were planted alongside the track for aesthetic, environmental and noise-reduction purposes; planting was completed in 1997.[14][34] Walking trails and cycling paths were built along the park to encourage public use.[35] Torrens Linear Park rejuvenated the river, which had deteriorated to the extent of being a de facto “urban drain, littered with rubbish and inaccessible to the public”.[24] Arising from environmental considerations, the O-Bahn is carbon-neutral due to the absorption of carbon dioxide by the trees alongside it.[14][34] The track itself is situated in a valley due to it being near a riverbed and the elevation was further lowered by digging further depressions in order to reduce the noise impact on adjacent dwellings.

    The original buses ran on diesel fuel, but the system allows for buses that run on alternative energy sources. Biodiesel fuel was trialled between July 2005 and May 2006. Buses using natural gas have been trialled, although they have not seen regular usage due to a perceived lack of power, especially on the section of the down track immediately after Paradise Interchange where the track rises sharply. The design of the O-Bahn provides for the installation of overhead wires for trolleybuses.

    Wiki.

  33. [“The most conservative thing a woman can do is have a baby” Tony Abbott … just now on 3AW]

    But I thought we had an overpopulation problem that our infrastructure couldn’t handle, Tony…

  34. From Twitter:

    [Rod Benson ‏ @rod_benson
    2/2 Tony Abbott has pledged to solve Western Sydney’s youth unemployment with a national chimney sweeping program. #auspol]

  35. [ “The most conservative thing a woman can do is have a baby” Tony Abbott ]

    The Mad Monk may be pitching to the Sex Party!

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