Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, which combines the results of the last two weekends’ surveys, is Labor’s weakest so far this year: their primary vote is down two points on the poll of March 3-4 to 37 per cent, with the Coalition up two to 45.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 10.5 per cent. The Coalition has strengthened two points on both two-party preferred measures, now leading 54-46 on respondent-allocated preferences and 52-48 on preferences as they divided at the 2010 election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,425 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Bemused 2211 -good point but lay off the feral apostrophe please.

    “It is an unarmed rocket that will splash into the sea well to our north. Japan has had similar things whizzing across it’s

  2. pmz @ 2243

    Considering the ALP got decimated in QLD hopefully they might be more open to Proportional Representation in the House of Reps.

    I wish the ALP had been merely decimated in Qld. That would mean a loss of one in ten of the seats they held.

    The harsh reality is they appear to have held not much more than one in ten.

    Tasmania has PR. I don’t see any rush to emulate Tasmania.

  3. [Gary
    Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 at 10:22 am | Permalink
    ML, did you agree with the attacks on the PM’s partner by the opposition?]

    What attacks on Tim? I don’t know what this refers to, but in any case, no I certainly do not.

    An example of what I have been saying is about 12 hours ago when on this blog I criticised dovif for using an inappropriate term against women. There are only a handful of liberal posters here but I am happy to criticise comments from them if I don’t agree with them.

    I also remember seeing a liberal standing over some young lady who criticised Abbott in a community forum and he went outside and stood around her (presumably to prevent her from going back inside) and she seemed scared. Again, I said that I was disgusted by that behaviour and it has no place in Australian politics.

  4. [Attacks on the Prime Minister are not mysogynistic just because the PM is a woman.]

    I am talking about the specific things coalition MPs say about her personally, not her govt’s record.

    This is the point you never get. Saying things like the mining industry is pussy-whipped having to deal with her (Don Randall), endorsing banners calling her a bitch by standing in front of it (Abbott, Sophie, some other Liberal dud), slagging and bagging (Pyne, sundry other Lib MPs), and the thinly veiled, gendered put-downs they use (eg referring to her as Julia rather than the Prime Minister, or Ms Gillard), are ALL examples of how the Coalition use sexism and misogyny to attack the PM.

  5. We are a democracy. There will be many more elections. Both Labor and Liberal have shown that recovery from such electoral disasters occurs over time. Governments lose favour with the voting population. That’s how it works.

  6. Rossmore @ 2251

    Gasp! The “errant apostrophe” strikes again! Thanks for the correction.

    I really think the solution to the Korea dilemma rests with China taking the lead, backed by the US.

    China doesn’t really want the refugees from NK and the ‘naughty child’ on its border and, particularly if there is a collapse or major crisis in NK wouldn’t mind too much if unification took place largely on South Korean terms. The sticking point is they do not want US bases on their border.

    The US could go one further and propose to withdraw its bases from ALL of Korea.

    Winners all except for the NK regime.

  7. [I also remember seeing a liberal standing over some young lady who criticised Abbott in a community forum and he went outside and stood around her (presumably to prevent her from going back inside) and she seemed scared. Again, I said that I was disgusted by that behaviour and it has no place in Australian politics.]
    Fair enough.

  8. Hi Mod Lib re 2250

    Of course the Pm as a politician is fair game for relevant criticism. But there is an edge of mysogyny to at least some of what is thrown at her, starting but not ending with Senator Heffernan’s comments years ago, and even what Germaine Greer apparently said on Q&A recently.

    That said I also dislike the attempts at amateur psychology regarding Abbott’s alleged pathologies eg narcissism; it’s enough for me to criticise him over that his bad policies.

    F

  9. Confessions:

    In case you have any doubts, let me dispel them:

    [This is the point you never get. Saying things like the mining industry is pussy-whipped having to deal with her (Don Randall),]

    I have not heard this, don’t even know what it means, but I condemn it.

    [endorsing banners calling her a bitch by standing in front of it (Abbott, Sophie, some other Liberal dud)]

    I did see this and I completely and utterly condemn it, it was a mistake by Abbott to stand in front of this, but you cannot blame Abbott for that sign, just as you cannot blame Bob Brown for standing in front of similar signs against Howard years earlier, or the people hanging Howard from a noose and setting on fire manikins of Howard

    [slagging and bagging (Pyne, sundry other Lib MPs), and the thinly veiled, gendered put-downs they use (eg referring to her as Julia rather than the Prime Minister, or Ms Gillard), are ALL examples of how the Coalition use sexism and misogyny to attack the PM.]

    Calling her Julia may well be a tactic to continue the lack of authority meme, I agree. That is not mysogyny, that is tactical. I am afraid you are going to have to admit that many of her ministerial colleagues do exactly the same thing (check out transcripts- I have certainly noticed this myself and thought how stupid they were for falling for the Coalition tactic- or perhaps they have been trying to humanise her???)

  10. [Of course the Pm as a politician is fair game for relevant criticism. But there is an edge of mysogyny to at least some of what is thrown at her, starting but not ending with Senator Heffernan’s comments years ago, and even what Germaine Greer apparently said on Q&A recently.]

    I have a chip on my shoulder about Sen Heff. He is solely responsible for me having to number dozens and dozens of below the line boxes in the senate paper so as to prevent my vote going his way!!!

    I agree, I was shocked at Germaine Greer’s comments about Gillard’s dress. She of all people commenting on this was unbelievable!

  11. fyi – Aristotle (Andrew C?) was interviewed on Insiders this morning on poll trends (Poll of Polls segment) sharing his insights on events coinciding with drops in support, including JG and TA’s satisfaction ratings.

  12. [Calling her Julia may well be a tactic to continue the lack of authority meme, I agree. That is not mysogyny, that is tactical.]

    It only works because she’s a woman. They never referred to Rudd as ‘Kevin’, even though his own personal campaign was built around his first name, and that most of his colleagues called him Kevin in public. It was always the Prime Minister, or Mr Rudd with the coalition.

  13. Mod Lib @ 2260

    Calling her Julia may well be a tactic to continue the lack of authority meme, I agree. That is not mysogyny, that is tactical. I am afraid you are going to have to admit that many of her ministerial colleagues do exactly the same thing (check out transcripts- I have certainly noticed this myself and thought how stupid they were for falling for the Coalition tactic- or perhaps they have been trying to humanise her???)

    You are right on that score.

    She needs to have her minders quietly remind reporters etc of her office and the respect she deserves as holder of it. She should be addressed as ‘Prime Minister’.

    For her part, a bit of selective deafness toward reporters who do not so address her would soon get the message through.

    Her ministerial colleagues in particular should be focused on enhancing her stature and the respect it commands.

    I may not be her greatest fan, but she is the ALP‘s Parliamentary Leader and Prime Minister and should be treated as such as long as she holds that office.

  14. Perhaps it is to avoid saying ‘Ms Gillard’ which no doubt would have been attacked as an attempt to highlight the fact that she wasn’t married.

    If you claim using someone’s name is msyogynistic then you have a different threshold than me. I guess we already knew that anyway eh? 🙂

  15. For some insight into the backlash against QLD ALP……ABC RN Background Briefing this morning covered “The dark side of the Boom”.
    [In the 1970s, Joh Bjelke-Petersen told mining companies to build towns or they wouldn’t be able to dig out the black gold. That’s why towns like Moranbah were built. Forty years later, Moranbah has morphed into a big miners camp. House prices have gone through the roof, businesses are collapsing and families are leaving. Now even Labor voters are reminiscing about Joh. Reporter, Wendy Carlisle.]

  16. Mod Lib @ 2267

    Perhaps it is to avoid saying ‘Ms Gillard’ which no doubt would have been attacked as an attempt to highlight the fact that she wasn’t married.

    You really think so?
    Ms does not indicate marital status as Miss or Mrs do.
    I have always been rather amused by how the abbreviation for ‘manuscript’ was so appropriated by certain feminists. 😉
    Better duck and hide….

  17. [Pegasus
    Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 at 10:52 am | Permalink
    For those who watched Insiders….What did u think about what Beattie had to say? Or should his views just be ignored?]

    I know many don’t watch here so to summarise:

    Yes, I take my part of the responsibility (but have been retired for 5 years now!)
    Bligh needs to move out (to make room for Fraser)
    Gillard needs to move in* (to argue her case to Queenslanders)

    * literally, not metaphorically, he suggested she buy a house in Brissie.

  18. Pegasus @ 2270

    I wasn’t paying close attention but I have never been a fan of Beattie and would expect his comments to be self serving.

    What did he say and what did you think?

  19. Mod Lib:

    [Perhaps it is to avoid saying ‘Ms Gillard’ which no doubt would have been attacked as an attempt to highlight the fact that she wasn’t married.]

    Facile. Completely facile. And ignores all the other women MPs who are referred to as ‘Ms’. Try again.

    [If you claim using someone’s name is msyogynistic]

    I am not saying that. I am saying that the deliberate use of the informal way of addressing our PM by her first name is designed to undermine her in the public eyes in a way which simply doesn’t work for men. In that sense, it is indeed a deliberate, gendered attack.

  20. She’s their colleague!

    A more appropriate comparison is to look at how many opposition women MPs govt ministers refer to by their first name instead of title, or the formal address of Ms.

    I can’t think of any.

  21. Mod Lib @ 2272
    You jogged my memory.

    Fraser was part of the cause of the problem and is not a solution. He needs to disappear into obscurity so he does not serve as a reminder of why people voted the way they did.

    Agree the PM needs to pay more attention to Qld and have a Qld strategy. Missed the bit about a house there.

    Beattie’s success was partly based on cosying up to the LNP and in particular Joh! Incredible to those who suffered under corrupt LNP govts and very short term. He needed to systematically dismantle the Lib / NP reputation so they would take decades to recover.

    Thems my views anyway. Interested in what Qlders may think.

  22. Pegasus,

    How do you feel about the Queensland Greens’ failure to make any gains in their vote in the election?

    That, in an intense protest vote atmosphere and with a host of serious environmental problems affecting Queensland, the Greens vote has gone backwards too?

    Or is that something you’d like us not to talk about?

  23. Diogenes @ 2280

    Dick Cheney has literally just had a heart transplant.

    About the only reason I can think of to oppose organ donation. 👿

  24. Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
    ·More
    RT @monkeytypist: If Labor wins Bulimba, 3 of its 8 seats will be within Kevin Rudd’s electorate. #justsayin #insiders

    Hmmmmmm

  25. K,

    What a surprise that u have come out from “under your rock” (as u would say) to try and score some personal points 😉

  26. bemused
    [About the only reason I can think of to oppose organ donation.]
    😆 u would think that there would be a more deserving recipient. Hope he didn’t jump the q

  27. Pegasus @ 2285

    u would think that there would be a more deserving recipient. Hope he didn’t jump the q

    Naaah… would never happen. Of course the US queue is based on money so he would have just taken his place 😉

  28. Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
    ·More
    Newman’s biggest problem will be over the cost of living campaign. That’s a boomerang promise, much like Howard’s interest rate one

    Yes, unfulfillable promises are a short term strategy that comes back to bite you on the bum. May it turn out to be a big bulldog with huge jaws!

    And on Beattie…

    Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
    ·More
    Christ Beattie has some chutzpah!

    Yes, and I for one have been completely over it for some time.

  29. By all means, go for it. Who is stopping u?

    Seriously, K. Don’t be shy. Don’t hold back.

    It was simply a question about your own preferences, Pegasus.

    As you well knew.

    Demand all u like

    Please do not rewrite others’ comments. They will ask you to do it if they so desire.

  30. K,
    [It was simply a question about your own preferences, Pegasus.

    As you well knew.]
    There u go again…always with the innuendo….I have no idea what UR on about and i really am no longer interested.

  31. The Greens vote in Qld went backwards everywhere except the Sunshine Coast, and the party has failed to win a seat according to William’s breakdown.

    I’d say that’s a pretty damning indictment of the Greens’ ability to convert support for their various campaigns into actual votes.

  32. Pegasus,

    …and i really am no longer interested.

    Not quite accurate, I feel.

    At no point did you show any interest in answering my first two polite and simple questions @ 2281:

    How do you feel about the Queensland Greens’ failure to make any gains in their vote in the election?

    That, in an intense protest vote atmosphere and with a host of serious environmental problems affecting Queensland, the Greens vote has gone backwards too?

    Which, of course, fully answered my third question:

    Or is that something you’d like us not to talk about?

  33. confessions @ 2296

    The Greens vote in Qld went backwards everywhere except the Sunshine Coast, and the party has failed to win a seat according to William’s breakdown.

    I’d say that’s a pretty damning indictment of the Greens’ ability to convert support for their various campaigns into actual votes.

    It’s actually a reflection of the reality of single member electorates.

    You can get a lot of votes, but if they are dispersed across many electorates and do not reach around 30% primaries in any, then your result in seats is … zero.

  34. [RT @monkeytypist: If Labor wins Bulimba, 3 of its 8 seats will be within Kevin Rudd’s electorate. #justsayin #insiders]
    So Kev may have helped them hold onto two or three seats? Go Kev. Shame about the others.

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