Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,750 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [Labor MPs seem to have shifted up a gear or two.]

    REsolving the leadership and ending Ruddstoration seems to have been a circuit breaker.

  3. Problem with wars is that it’s always the masses who pay the price. A good friend of mine who was in a position to speak on these things cautioned that you only fight wars that are big enough to count and small enough to win. I’m not sure this war Swan has started qualifies on either criteria.

  4. DavidWH

    Swannie may just be giving the hacks something new to write about, to stop the leadershit/Carr crap that we’re all so tired of.

  6. Hmm.

    Did a quick check on our Mrs Jenny Bell of 20 Helene Street Nuriootpa. Interesting address, given she is (according to a response to a critic) involved in the “Shut the Gate” movement against fracking.

    I mention her address because:

    a) she lives smack bang in the middle of “suburbia”. I can imagine she might be interested in fracking if she lived on a farm in the rural part of Nuri, but she doesn’t. She’s a townie;

    b) fracking isn’t an issue in SA in any case;

    c) Lakemba is not in SA, so I’m not sure why she is so across the details of life in a suburb hundreds of kilometres away from her.

    Almost every line of that letter frames things in either a racial or religious context, then she has the audacity to say she isn’t racist.

    Every thing in that letter is straight out of the Tea Party Handbook. I note on one of the Vietnam Veterans’ websites that this letter appears to have been cobbled together from about 3 or 4 other sources; not as “original” as we are led to believe.

    I await its comprehensive debunking by Snopes 😆

  7. [you only fight wars that are big enough to count and small enough to win]

    Sounds like a cop out. Abbott would approve.

  10. Pegasus @2576

    Abbott’s comments feed into two memes that seem to resonate with many voters and is duly beaten up by the MSM:

    1. Gillard is an illegitimate PM. She deposed the electorally popular Rudd by “knifing him in the back”. We, the public, voted for Rudd not Gillard. We the public elected Rudd not Gillard.

    2. The leadership instability within the ALP continues. Gillard will be toppled by Shorten or another contender before the next election. When the public votes in the upcoming election, he – Tony Abbott, will have been elected and therefore will be a legitimate PM rather than one installed by the ALP caucus.

    It was not hubris on Abbott’s behalf. Abbott knew his words would be reported widely. He tailored his message accordingly to fit with the prevailing memes.

    For mine, Abbott’s comments are just more of the same, and I’m sruprised anyone took any note of them. He’s always banging on about winning the next election, being the next PM, Gillard’s legitimacy, etc.

    But he’s more and more fighting yesterday’s battle. The longer Gillard remains PM, the more legitimacy she gains. It was a story in June 2010, and in the lead-up to the election that year. But since then we’ve had an election in which she formed government, and the party has given her a ringing endorsement.

    Sure, it’s good politics by him. But it’s losing resonance.

  14. Tom it actually makes a lot of sense and wisely applied would have prevented us fighting too many senseless wars throughout the ages.

  15. [Tom it actually makes a lot of sense and wisely applied would have prevented us fighting too many senseless wars throughout the ages.]

    We are discussing an economic war not Gallipoli

  16. Fariness should necessitate some explanation as to why Twiggy has not paid any tax.

    If he has done so illegally, then he should be prosecuted. If not, then why do our tax laws operate so beneficially?

  17. A journalist asks about New Start falling behind other benefits and burps from over eating during the question.

  20. Peter Martin asks about the NewStart Allowance. Swan’s answer, no doubt, gives hope to the unemployed, particularly the long-term unemployed (sarcasm)

  21. William

    Your expert overview as to the resoluteness of the conservative vote in Essential compared to volatility elsewhere would be appreciated.

  22. Peter Martin is good bloke and yes Newstart is way below what it should be, Swannie. Those on it also deserve “a fair go”.

  23. [I’m with (I think) Lenore Taylor and George Megalogenis: the longer Lib leadership festers, the longer they’ll continue with their Stunt-A-Day substitute for policy development. Leave it to go gangrenous, I reckon. The longer the better.]

    Ooyeah! I am in definite agreement with BB and Vic this. But, i’m not sure that the Libs will actually go for Turnbull as a replacement for the :monkey: .

    the question then becomes who. Please Dog make it Mesma!!! 🙂

    Just watching Swannie on ABC24. Journo’s giving him a reasonable working over, but he seems to be doing well. Hard to fluster this man.

  26. DavidWH
    .
    Swannie is not starting some “class war”. As you can see when he first raised the issue he praised several billionaires like Fox. His criticism was aimed at “a few” . From the trwiiter feed

    [Australian Labor‏@AustralianLabor Swan: Recently we’ve seen the emergence of a few who use their considerable wealth against policies to benefit the majority #NPC #fairgo]
    This is so true .
    [Swan: “The billionaires’ protest against the mining tax would have been laughed out of town in the Australia I grew up in” #NPC #fairgo]

  27. [Peter Martin asks about the NewStart Allowance. Swan’s answer, no doubt, gives hope to the unemployed, particularly the long-term unemployed (sarcasm)]

    Horsey, just wait until Tony Abbott gets in, no doubt, he will slash and burn, maybe that’s what you prefer (serious)

  28. Looks like the Chinese reptiles have learnt from our reptiles.
    [Mike Forsythe 傅才德‏@PekingMike

    Chinese reporter in front of me at #NPC presser wanted to interview me. I said no. He then called his desk w a made up interview. Awful ]

  29. [Schtang
    @Schtang
    I love it how the media and Liberal Party make out Unions are bad-hello!! unions r made up of workers, not 1 fatcat mining boss #auspol #npc]

  31. Essential steady after 2 consecutive weeks of Labor falling a point – it is impossible to make much out of 1 poll but the destabilisation due to Rudd may have plateaued.

  33. [Looks like the Chinese reptiles have learnt from our reptiles.]

    poroti, my motto TheFinnigans天地有道人无道

  36. Abbott is in Bendigo earlier carrying on about PHIR and baby bonus means testing as constituting an attack on middle class.

    The perfect opportunity for journos to ask how he intends paying for reversing means testing. I bet they didn’t.

  37. [Essential Research steady at 56-44.]

    After the worst week for Labor, as claimed by Abbott & His 40 Thieves plus the #MSMhacks – this will do me.

  38. victoria:

    Someone did ask a question referening a Carr press conference. It wasn’t about leadershit though.

  39. Tony Abbott is trying on Sky to reinvent the “Middle class”, upping their salaries and wealth to better suit his party’s agenda,

  40. The Finns

    i am with you on that. Labor did a lot of bloodletting. All things considered, it could have been worse

  44. [Swan: “The billionaires’ protest against the mining tax would have been laughed out of town in the Australia I grew up in” #NPC #fairgo]

    Yes, me too, it’s a mad world out there. We seem to want to have our cake and eat it too, then keep on eating it till there is nothing left, then we just blame someone when it’s gone.
    Sooner or later there will be a reckoning, and the squealing will be heard on Mars.

  47. [With the sun finally shining over Canberra, Julia Gillard’s new ministry was sworn-in by Governor-General Quentin Bryce this morning.

    But there was one thunder cloud during the proceedings: the face of Senator Kim Carr.

    The newly-appointed Minister for Human Services looked downcast throughout the official ceremony at Government House, and the group portrait on the steps.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/one-dark-cloud-among-ministerial-sunshine-20120305-1uc7b.html#ixzz1oCr5eLfN

    I guess that’s what happens when you say you don’t have much faith in your own leader’s ability to win an election.

    It doesn’t help if you’re suspected of leaking to the media, either.

    Albo, for example, was careful not to do either.

  49. Tom I know its not a military war although economic wars are not without their fallout consequences. I’m just not sure what Swan is trying to achieve?

    If these people have rorted the tax system the ATO has powerful methods to investigate and prosecute. If the tax laws have loopholes that these people take advantage of the the government has the power to change the laws. If Swan thinks people shouldn’t be able to accumulate obscene amounts of wealth then he needs to clearly set out what changes need to be made to prevent the accumulation of obscene wealth.

    I not really sure what Swan is trying to say other than these specific people are easy targets for a political swipe.

  50. DqvidWH

    If you cannot see what Swan is illustrating, you obviously have no idea what direction this country is headed

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