Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,750 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [Clive Palmer would be best served]

    [with apple sauce and roast vegies.]

    😆 Do you think he tastes like chicken?

  3. Talking about suing Abbott or anyone for lying about lies is ridiculous. Would only ensures continued high volume coverage over “Government lies” meme.

  4. joe2,

    There’s a rule of thumb that pollies don’t sue other pollies.

    Insiders pointed out yesterday that surveys show that voters don’t like that sort of language being used especially women. However Atkins rightfully pointed out that Liberal focus polling would be picking up the issues and that is why they are exploiting it.

    My personal view is that it is poor politics because I’m yet to be convinced that such factors affect the voting behaviour when it comes to actually voting.

  6. Finns @ 2494

    Sorry I missed that. Does anyone know if the 25% tax take under the Liberals is the highest in our history? (I thought I heard that it was). If so could reference to that be added to help puncture the Liberal spin?

  7. Claims that Gillard is an illigitimate PM are ridiculous and are made in desperation by the MSM and Coalition.

    Gillard won the last election with a majority of the popular vote and has been officially endorsed by her party with a slaughter of a result.

    Gillard has more legitimacy than Abbott in their respective party rooms and in the electorate.

    To even engage in the debate is ABSURD.

    *catch you guys later*

    Oh, after the first week of footy I’m showing a slight profit (thanks to Broncos/Storm/Eagles and no thanks to Panthers/Cows).

    I think the Bunnies can win tonight but I’m too scared to back them 🙂

  8. As I said, the PM is giving Abbott as much rope as possible to up the ante with the lie meme. Eventually he is going to jump the shark

  10. Lizzie

    [I find it distressing that the RW such as D Fox continue to peddle lies in order to sustain their narrative.]

    If they believe it then they need help.

  12. Maybe there was a category error when it came to Clive Palmer. ‘National Treasure’ should have read “National Joke”.

  13. [Higher prices were registered for fruit, vegetables, alcohol and tobacco, which were offset by a sharp drop in the cost of holiday travel, furniture and financial services.]
    Guess who disproportionately cops it in the neck – it aint the well-off 🙁

  15. Is there a reason why the PM should not go Abbott for libel over his “lie” assertion outside of parliament? Or go media for same.

    When Julia Gillard has completed her career as Prime Minister she should sit down with a couple of cartons of yellow highlighters and the words of the MSM and Abbott et al, and start amassing her fortune.

  17. [ Andrew Leigh
    @ALeighMP
    Off to see @SwannyDPM on #FairGo @AustPressClub. For context, here are the Atkinson-Leigh top 1% estimates since 1921 andrewleigh.org/pdf/TopIncomes…]

  20. If you feel like a laugh this tosh was emailed to me –

    [ Subject: Fw: The silent majority

    This seems to put into words what I and I am sure many others of the silent majority think! It was written by Mrs Jenny Bell of South Australia to Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott:

    To Julia Gillard (Prime Minister) & Tony Abbott (Leader of the Opposition) …

    You BOTH Worry me ! ( In fact both of your Political parties worry the hell out of me !!!)

    Over the last three years, I find myself becoming more and more fearful of the pair of you, and between you, you are turning this country into a place that I no longer feel at home in, or feel a part of! I watch you in parliament, and no, not just the two of you, but every politician that I see, stand up in parliament sneering at each other, and acting like children !!! (..and if you were my children, I would be ashamed of you all … What an example to set!)

    Although you would like us all to believe that you are putting the needs of this country at the forefront, NEITHER of you are doing that, you seem more interested in “one-up-manship “, in scoring off each other, & denigrating each other, to the detriment of this country & its people !!!

    It seems to be all about YOU as individuals, and not about what you can DO for this country !
    It is fast becoming a place that I do not recognize, as the place I always thought, was the best place in the world to be !!!

    But no longer !!!

    You are not listening to the people of this country !!!
    And here in South Australia , your counterparts are afflicted with the same disease – is it endemic in all politicians ?

    I am watching the deterioration of living standards in this country, (and according to you, on a world stage we are doing better than most countries … REALLY ???) … And yet the gap is widening between the “haves” and the “have-nots” . I see our homeless on the streets, our hospitals under-funded, and understaffed, our health system is an absolute mess and a disgrace … And yet I see multi-millions of dollars being sent off shore, in aid to other countries, before attending to this country’s needs !

    I see the “selling off of the farm”, in large amounts, to foreign interests, (In Every State ) including water rights to foreign interests too …. And WHY…?

    Especially when you go to great lengths to tell us that water is a finite resource, & supposedly, we must ALL be careful with how we use it, so that we ensure we have it for the future ?

    Foreign interests “Fracking” for coal seam gas, and riding rough shod over farmers’ rights to their own land, AND USING QUESTIONABLE CHEMICALS. (You don’t even KNOW what chemicals they use), and possibly causing damage to the water table in the process !!!
    And those foreign interests I believe, do NOT have to pay anything in royalties back to this country, for the first five years of their tenure … IS THIS CORRECT ???

    A Carbon Tax,( which you KNOW is just another tax with a “Starting Point dollar value”) which will make NO appreciable difference, to carbon emissions, AT ALL!

    A tax, which in spite of all your arguments FOR it, you are doing alone, when other major countries will NOT & DO NOT embrace it, or believe in it !

    All that it will do for this country is put working families and small businesses behind the eight ball, …..what planet are you on, if you think that your few hundred dollars a year, will make even a scrap of difference to the effect of the carbon tax on people ?Blind Freddy can see the holes in that argument !!! Do you really think we are that dumb ???

    The CONVOY OF NO CONFIDENCE was real !!! …and I haven’t spoken to even ONE person, who would not have liked to be there if they could, but the tyranny of distance and /or work was the only thing that kept them away, ( myself included ), … and you KNOW that only a part of the convoy was actually allowed to be in front of Parliament house and ON VIEW … the rest were streets away, unreported by the media !

    For Mr Albanese to stand up in parliament, and call it “THE CONVOY OF NO CONSEQUENCE “, in his sneering tone, shows just how out of touch with the people of Australia , you really are !!!! WE WOULD HAVE ALL LIKED TO BE THERE !!!

    DEFENCE ……. Because Americans are our Allies, and we support them in Wars, ……… Korea , Vietnam , Iraq , Afghanistan , …. and you have sent our soldiers to those places, and our soldiers fought for you, and for Australia ……. some coming home with terrible physical injuries, and some with devastating Mental Injuries as well ….. BUT WHERE ARE YOU, WHEN THEY NEED YOU ?????

    Veteran’s Indexation to CPI only is a disgrace … and is something YOUR Labor party Julia, used as an election sweetener, to get the Veteran’s Vote … BUT YOU LIED (Again) ! You never had any intention of honouring your election promise to them … and it WILL come back to bite you at the next election !!!! (And Tony, Liberals were NO BETTER, Howard had more than 10 years to “fix it ” and didn’t !)

    Veterans are not alone, they have families, friends and supporters, who are heartily sick of the deception your party perpetrated on them ….AND THEY ALL VOTE !!!!

    THEY are your obligation, first and foremost ….. and it is not your first obligation to give aid to every man and his dog overseas first !!! Look after your own FIRST !!!! Is this what you call SALUTING THEIR SERVICE ???

    Have you any idea , how sickening it is for our Vets to see you both, ( Labor or Liberal ) turn up to the funerals of our current young vets for a photo opportunity, to be seen to be “caring ” in the public eye, but only to turn your backs on them all, when they need you ??? (Just ask Breanna Till an Afghanistan Soldier’s wife, how CARING this government is !!!)

    And in light of what you DON’T do for our Vets …….Let’s talk about Multiculturalism ……People have come here from other countries, for a better life, for more years than I have been alive ( I am 65 years old !) … my own family migrated here in 1883, from Germany , and did find a better life …

    Pre & Post war immigrants have came for a better life, and settled in and became wonderful contributors to this country, as did those who came here after the Vietnam War, … all have contributed to the rich diversity of this country, and some descendants have even fought FOR this country, and they have become Australians and were glad to be …and they had NO handouts from our Government either, …they worked hard for everything!

    I have never before had a problem with all, or any, race of immigrants coming here …

    …….However , I DO NOW !!!

    Please tell me why we have areas like Lakemba, where police do NOT, & will NOT go, for fear of their life ?
    Please tell me why we can no longer have religion in schools, for fear of “OFFENDING” someone ? (The latest little gem is that they are not having, or being funded, for “chaplains ” any more , but “Counsellors “?)

    Please tell me why religious Christmas observances are no longer allowed in some schools for fear of OFFENDING someone ?
    Please tell me HOW Christmas decorations in some stores might OFFEND someone ?

    Please tell me why we have to have segregated days in some swimming centres, for fear of “OFFENDING” someone ?

    Please tell me why we have some RADICAL clerics demanding Sharia Law in this country … when if we were in THEIR country, this would NEVER be allowed ?

    Please tell me why our laws need to be changed, so as not to OFFEND someone ?

    Please tell me why we are fast becoming a MINORITY voice, in our own country, because of POLITICAL CORRECTNESS ?

    Please tell me WHY Australians cannot legally wear a face covering bike helmet into a bank ..and yet it is ok to wear a
    Burqa which covers the whole face ?

    And please tell me WHY, when those people who want asylum here, can wreck our detention centres, as in Villawood , and STILL be accepted here ?

    SO , in light of the above, WILL BOTH OF YOU ……Please tell me WHY, when some of our Vietnam Veterans FINALLY received (in the last 6 months) the recognition that they should have had after the Vietnam War, (and which they received from the USA & South Vietnam, during and immediately after the Vietnam War), that the families of those Veterans, were refused assistance by this Government, to attend that award ceremony, and yet this Government ….flew , accommodated , and even took on bus tours , to the the families of asylum seekers, after the funerals
    of those who were killed in the boat which sunk off Christmas Island ?

    What does that say, about just who are this government’s priorities ?

    The Australian people that I speak to have genuine concerns about becoming a second class minority in our own country, and the reasons for it, are some of the above, …..
    Are you so blind that you cannot see this ?

    And no , I am NOT racist !!!…(if I did not like Catholics or Protestants would I be considered racist ?) Of course not !

    Why is it, that if we object to what is happening in our country … we are immediately labelled RACIST, in an attempt to shut
    us up ?

    We are fighting Radical Muslims, in Afghanistan & Iraq , are we not ?I hear you say, yes but the Muslims we have here are “Not like that ” … well how would we know ? …do we hear ANY of them coming out & speaking AGAINST radicals ??
    I haven’t …have you ???

    Islam is not compatible with ANY of the values that we hold here in Australia ! ….Are not the experiences of Britain , France , and the Netherlands an example of that? Why do you think it would be any different here ? We even have an Australian born “radical “, whose message is that Australia WILL become a Muslim country, under Sharia Law, & that we had “better get used to it “.

    Will both of you grow some “Balls “, and start sticking up for this country and its people ???

    We are the people who put you where you are, and PAY you to look after our interests ! … And you are NOT doing that, by any stretch of the imagination !!!

    I would appreciate an answer, from both of you, if only to convince me that once again, I am not talking to a brick wall !!!!!

    In case it has escaped both of you …I would like to remind you that, in Australia the Government … is
    FOR THE PEOPLE, OF THE PEOPLE, & BY THE PEOPLE …
    never forget that……because you sure have up till now !!!

    Mrs Jenny Bell
    20 Helene St
    Nuriootpa
    S.A.
    0885623753

    Let us get this out to all please keep forwarding and if you have people in the press or if you know Politicians let them know we are dis-satisfied with their behaviour !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    PLEASE SEND THIS GREAT LETTER TO AS MANY PEOPLE IN AUSTRALIA AS YOU CAN, AND IF YOU HAVE CONTACTS OVERSEAS DO THE SAME? ]

  21. Jackol
    [Jackol

    Posted Monday, March 5, 2012 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    People talking about going after Tony Abbott for his hubris or legally over “lies” etc:

    Over recent times there has been a change of focus from the government (as called for by various people) to stop talking about Tony Abbott.

    The government should be talking about what they are doing. Reject the opposition’s approach, by all means, but that is easy since the opposition aren’t proposing anything new.

    So I say stick with ignoring Tony Abbott as much as possible. Don’t be defined by his talking points. Continue creating your own agenda. The government only has a certain very limited bandwidth to the public – using up that small amount of bandwidth talking about Tony Abbott is not a good plan.

    Being reactive is only going to lose you the next election.]

    Great post! Worth highlighting it again 🙂

    If only such advice was heeded by those on Team Labor.

  23. Whenever I see a message filled with exclamation marks and blocks of capitals I understand that I must NOT read it, for the good of my soul. 😀

  26. The story as it should have been written:

    [Prime Minister Julia Gillard is believed to be in talks with ex-NSW Premier Bob Carr concerning his filling the Senate vacancy left by MArk Arbib’s resignation.

    It is understood that Mr. Carr may have been offered the Foreign Ministry, or that talks over the position are at least underway.

    Asked about this on Tuesday, Mr. Carr denied an offer had been made, which of course may be true, but this does not preclude that he has discussed the subject in at least general terms with the Prime Minister.

    This new development will come as a shock to other candidates for the Foreign Minister’s job, left vacant by Kevin Rudd. It had been widely reported that Stephen Smith, who served as Foreign Minister under Rudd, wanted his old job back.

    However, Mr. Smith said last week that he was proud to serve in any capacity in the ministry, as there is no doubt that he has performed well in his current role as Defence Minister, introducing many much needed reforms and overseeing the dismantling of the culture of misogny rampant in the ADF.

    Mr. Smith’s private views, and possible dismay if Mr. Carr is offered the job seen as morally his may be another matter, but no-one in politics doubts he is a loyal member of the caucus and could be expected to “take one for the team” yet again.

    Ms. Gillard is said to be very satisfied with the way Mr. Smith has been doing his job as Defence Minister, and is said to believe his role there at the moment is a vital one.

    Ms. Gillard, asked to confirm that she had communicated with Mr. Carr repeated to reporters that she regards the reshuffle is a private matter, internal to the Labor Party and her office, until it is announced on Friday.

    She would not comment on anything she may or may not have discussed with Mr. Carr, but it doesn’t take an Einstein to guess that any chat they had was not about the history of the US Civil War.

    It is said that there are no winners in reshuffles, meaning that there will always be bruised egos and shattered hopes, as is natural among a talented team of members and senators eager to impress and progress.

    After the tumultuous goings on over the past week – Rudd’s dramatic resignation, Crean’s unfortunate words, Albanese’s dignified offer of resignation, the leadership ballot and all the rest – the last thing Julia Gillard needs now is trouble among her senior colleagues.

    Thus, the composition of the reshuffled ministry could be seen as a litmus test of how well the undoubted wounds inflicted by yesterday’s leadership spill can and will heal.

    Carr’s candidacy, if it proceeds further than just a few phone conversations, will add to the “interesting times” the government finds itself in and will undoubtedly rub some egos up the wrong way.

    On the other hand, Mr. Carr as Foreign Minister would bring much-needed new blood to the cabinet, and would be an asset to our diplomatic relations with other countries, most commentators agree.

    With only three days to go until Friday’s announcement, speculation is rife, inside and outside the cabinet corridors as to just who will be winners, who will be losers, and will – or won’t – be The Dark Horse.

    If Ms. Gillard does want the wild-card nomination, Mr. Carr, as FM, and does get her way, it will be a sure sign that she has cemented her leadership with a master stroke of tactics.

    If she wants him and doesn’t get her way, then serious doubt concerning her ability to lead a wounded team will resurface, to her detriment and that of the nation.

    The fate of the Gillard government will have its new direction, if any, set by Friday.

    The “will she or won’t she” (perhaps more accurately the “can she or can’t she”) questions will be over and we will then all know whether the Gillard experiment has resulted in a lame duck or a beautiful swan.]

  29. Would be interested in knowing if Professor Clive Palmer had real quals, and what standards Deakin has in appointing adjuncts. eg do you need an undergraduate degree? or just be a registered Real Estate Agent? Maybe some sleuths with some spare time could follow up

    http://www.deakin.edu.au/current-students/study-information/graduation/past-ceremonies/2008/geelong/2april20085pm.php

    [Occasional Address

    The Occasional address (ilecture recording – requires broadband) was delivered by Professor Clive Palmer, Chairman, Mineralogy.

    Professor Clive Palmer is the owner and Chairman of Mineralogy Pty Ltd, which owns the world’s largest iron ore deposit in Western Australia. The company was formed in 1986 to take over the Australian assets of US companies Tennaco Oil and Minerals and Hanna Mining Company’s Australian subsidiary, Australia Hanna, with projects in gold mining and the iron ore industry.

    Professor Palmer was educated at Aquinas College, Southport, Toowoomba Grammar and Southport State High School, prior to studying at the University of Queensland from 1973 to 1975. He commenced his career in the Public Defenders Office, Queensland, where he instructed over 15 criminal cases in the Supreme Court of Queensland. Throughout the next 30 years, Professor Palmer’s career expanded to include property development and projects in mining.

    Professor Palmer is a much sought-after public speaker, having featured as a keynote speaker at many national and international conferences and forums. In June 2002, he was appointed Adjunct Professor of Business, at Deakin’s Faculty of Business and Law, a role he held until 2006. During this time, Professor Palmer delivered a series of lectures as part of Deakin’s MBA Residential Programs.

    Professor Palmer retains a strong interest in Australian politics and has been a member of the National Party since 1974 and was also the Party’s official spokesperson from 1985 to1987. In 1992, he was elected an honorary life member of the National Party of Australia and has been a member of the Central Council of the Party since 2000.

    Professor Palmer also maintains a wide range of interests away from the world of business.
    He is currently Director of the Greg Norman Golf Foundation; a life member of the Royal Agricultural Society; member of the United Services Club (Brisbane), the Western Australian Club and the JF Kennedy Library Foundation. Professor Palmer is also a Licensed Real Estate Agent.
    ]

  31. Swannie worlds best treasurer. Palmer a living treasure. What further proof do we need to know these things are meaningless?

  32. It just confirmed (again) what a liar Gillard is, not to mention Carr’s deceit. Everything she says is a lie. If you want to find the definition of lair in the dictionary there’s a photo of Juliar!

    Brought to you by the people whose only complaint in the last four days was Gillard’s ‘misuse’ of the term “completely untrue” instead of their preferred option, “largely untrue”.

    Hyperbowl will always be larger under a Coalition government.

  33. [ Maybe there was a category error when it came to Clive Palmer. ‘National Treasure’ should have read “National Joke”. ]

    Perhaps they thought they were voting for “National Living Treasury“?

    I think he qualifies.

  36. [Swannie worlds best treasurer]

    as voted on by his peers across the planet

    [Palmer a living treasure]

    as recommended by the NSW government to a body (The National Trust) that depends on government funding for its very existence.

    Not quite the same deal is it David?

  43. “Today we are seeing the Americanisation of the Right within this country”
    Swan.
    “Abbott is singing for his supper, kneeling down in front of these vested interests.”

  45. “reading the papers this morning and the comments of Robb and Hockey I see that my essay has achieved the impossible – uniting the Coalition’s economic team”
    More from Swan.

  48. [It was not hubris on Abbott’s behalf. Abbott knew his words would be reported widely. He tailored his message accordingly to fit with the prevailing memes.

    I am not as confident as some that Abbott’s comments will be viewed in a negative light by large sections of people in voterland.

    Unlike some here, I do not underestimate Abbott.]

    Come on Horsey, dont gallop around the bush. Just say you like Abbott and want to see him as PM

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