Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

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Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,750 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [Paul Bongiorno ‏ @PaulBongiorno
    It’s nice to hear the Forrest family give away $50m to deserving causes. Redistributive justice demands more, hence modern income taxes.]
    I’m beginning to like Bongiorno.

  3. Voice of Harold – Has he actually dug anything up or is it all speculation of the potential of the land he claims to own.

  5. 7 years of no corporations tax – now if a PAYG taxpayer didn’t lodge a tax form for seven years I wonder what would become of them.

    Of course they would be investigated and most likely charged with something

  6. I think calling Palmer a national treasure is highly questionable, what has he actually done to achieve it.

    Apparently these *awards* are run by the National Trust and Womens Weekly Magazine.

    The magazine put Palmers *name forward* and ensured he got this *so called* award.

    The National Trust is apparently shitting about it.

    For mine its a total farce. But there you are?

  10. [ I think calling Palmer a national treasure is highly questionable, what has he actually done to achieve it.

    He dug all the national treasure up and kept it for himself.]

    Looks like he may have eaten a fair proportion of it, too.

  11. It’s fascinating that 86% of submissions to the media inquiry came from GetUp! and George Soros. (Why did the inquiry take any notice of the opinions of foreigners?) The average person doesn’t care about the issues raised by Finkelstein’s inquiry.

    The examples given by Finkelstein of ‘bad journalism’ are laughable. A NSW Minister had his privacy breached because his homosexuality was revealed??? (He had continually lied to the public about his homosexuality) What’s wrong with that?

    Likewise, a chief commissioner of police is the victim of false accusations about his job performance fed to the news media by a ministerial adviser … He is forced to resign.”

    In fact he had falsified crime statistics and thoroughly deserved to be sacked.
    Nude photographs said to be of a female politician contesting a seat in a state election are published with no checking of their veracity. The photographs are fakes.”
    (The paper which ran the fake pictures of Pauline Hanson, who isn’t “defenceless”, apologised, paid damages and was caned by its readers. What more should have been done?)
    Ultimately I think Finkelstein will regret having anything to do with this witch hunt. It’s an inquiry into nothing. In short Gillard wants to suppress free speech and have a media that only praises her. As it is the media has been more then generous with her. They haven’t pursued her relationship with Emerson, (Is that why he’s been promoted?) or her involvement with criminals. (Can’t you just imagine how equal minded leftoids would be if it was Abbott and not Gillard implicated)

    She can take away a free media over my dead body. Take a stand at http://www.freespeechaustralia.com/

    PS: How do those who run Poll Bludger feel about their blog being controlled by the federal government?

  12. I can just imagine the shadow ministry watching the swearing in ceremony with their plates of cucumber and shit sandwiches.

  14. dave – ‘National Trust’ & Clive Palmer: a way to trash a ‘brand name’ lesson for future marketing students.

  15. [The average person doesn’t care about the issues raised by Finkelstein’s inquiry. ]

    The average person doesn’t care about most issues but governments still need to take care of business.

  21. CTar1
    Posted Monday, March 5, 2012 at 10:34 am | Permalink

    dave – ‘National Trust’ & Clive Palmer: a way to trash a ‘brand name’ lesson for future marketing students.

    Yep agree.

  24. Tom Hawkins
    [I can just imagine the shadow ministry watching the swearing in ceremony with their plates of cucumber and shit sandwiches.]
    The swearing in yin is being balanced by their out swearing yang 🙂

  28. Good morning, Bludgers.

    Cold, dark, wet and windy sleep-in weather again, as predicted. Again, we’re luckily on the periphery.

    [Has Leveson finally delivered a mortal blow to Rupert Murdoch?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/mar/04/hnery-porter-rupert-murdoch-corruption

    That is such a good read. It has cheered me up no end.]

    Indeed. From an analytical point-of-view, the most fascinating aspect has been how well-organised & ordered has been retribution by Murdoch victims-cum-haters: celebrities -> victims-of-crimes hacking -> political intimidation, corruption, and other criminal activities -> minor police corruption -> corruption in the highest ranks of the police force … and on & up. If the persistent City of London rumour that NewsIntel’s criminal behaviour spread to the Spooks, internal & external, it could get even more interesting.

    I particularly enjoyed the article’s final, ever-so-English conclusion:

    [The process is polite but remorseless, and sitting in court it occurred to me that there could not be a more civilised antidote to Murdoch’s influence in the UK. He will never recover from this exposure.]

  42. [George’s pictures of the poor mining billionaires have been pinned to the notice board in the lunch room. It’s the least I can do to spread the word.]

    I think I’ll print a few more and leave them on train seats and in waiting rooms etc

    It’s the least I can do.

  43. So Swanny is speaking at the NPC at around 12.30pm.

    I hope he continues not to hold back, it’s obvious that the elite billionare few enter the political discussion purely for their very own selfish interests ahead of the best interests of the nation as a whole.

    The main point to be made is that it is in the best interests of our democracy that media ownership rules be restricted to include a broad range of interests in the community.

    Murdoch has lost all credibility as far as I’m concerned with his phone hacking scandals and it is absolutely unacceptable that he owns something in the vicinity of 70% of the media market.

    Media ownership laws MUST be reviewed and changed urgently.

    It’s TIME!

  47. Wayne Swan is a national embarrassment. No sooner does he bag Clive Palmer then Palmer is endorsed by ordinary Australians as a national living treasure! How out of touch the federal government is! Why shouldn’t ordinary Ausralians have a say in who is a national living treasure?

  48. Ahh good to see Desert Fox about!

    Son what a disgraceful beat up the whole Carr affair turned out to be?

    C’mon Desert Fox admit it! The Labor Party are not travelling too badly at all if your mob have to dig so low to find something so ridiculous to criticise them about.

    Just compare the line up now of the Labor Party with the Coalition. It’s like comparing a State Of Origin team against a pack of poorly trained monkeys from Toronga Park. 😎

  49. Fourteen year olds can’t campaign against the suppression of free speech??? I thought the left was all for young people being politically active!

  50. [Why shouldn’t ordinary Ausralians have a say in who is a national living treasure?]

    No-one is saying they don’t.

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