Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,750 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. BK, ministers should get out there and go hard at Abbott over that hubris. It goes alongside Boswell’s “dead meat” remark last year.

  2. Oakeshott Country

    [Oakeshott Country

    Has anyone received an email like this.
    http://www.zeitgeistaustralia.org/forum/topic/economic-sabotage-in-australia ]
    The Zeiteist Movement seem to be a new agey type group who follow the wisdom of Rudolph Steiner.
    [ Zeitgeist addendum as well as Zeitgeist Orientation Guide both attempt to bridge sciene and technology: “SCIENCE IS DIVINITY IN ACTION” and ” SCIENCE IS FUNCTIONAL SPIRITUALITY.”.]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=becSZ9xvXJk

  3. http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Bob-Carr-pd20120305-S3QRF?OpenDocument&src=sph

    [Gillard’s winning Carr reversal
    Alister Drysdale
    Published 7:18 AM, 5 Mar 2012

    Julia Gillard will be glowing quietly this morning as her new ministers are sworn in.

    The game has changed. Within just a few days it went from a widespread public prognosis of disaster to triumph.

    It all happened because of an excruciating own goal – not from Julia Gillard, but from the doyens of the Canberra press gallery.]
    Definitely read this one in full.

  4. ajm
    Posted Monday, March 5, 2012 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    Those who are starting to “warn” against the ALP starting to use “the politics of envy” need to grasp one essential fact. The “politics of envy” which I prefer to call the appeal to fairness, has been used throughout history because it works, just like negative campaigning does. Those who suggest the ALP shouldn’t use it are either seriously misguided or deliberately trying to undermine Labor’s capability to improve its popularity.

    Two points on this –

    – Howard copied the phrase “politics of envy” strait out of the repugs play book. He couldn’t even be original. Think it was a Karl Rove expression.

    – “politics of envy” put slightly differently is “Its a sin for you to desire the fruits of my greed”. Just look where all that has got the U.S.

    In the next breath the libs then talk about a “fair go”. The mind boggles.

  5. victoria

    From hwat I heard, Turnbull merely said that he couldn’t say he would never be PM. If the msm has morphed that into a positive play for the leadership, that is on a par with their “deliberate misunderstanding” of Bob Carr’s statements.
    They hear what they want to hear (like some bloggers).

  6. Well at least one report acknowledging the reptiles of the media came a gutsa –

    Gillard’s winning Carr reversal

    Alister Drysdale

    Julia Gillard will be glowing quietly this morning as her new ministers are sworn in.

    The game has changed. Within just a few days it went from a widespread public prognosis of disaster to triumph.

    It all happened because of an excruciating own goal – not from Julia Gillard, but from the doyens of the Canberra press gallery.

    The day she announced Bob Carr would be her Foreign Minister, Gillard awoke to Fairfax and News Limited news and commentary on how she had shot her sagging credibility, had been rolled by ministers, had lied, caved in, damaged Australia’s reputation and been snagged by the factions because of her failure to assert the authority of her office and get Carr on board.

    It had been a fiasco and a high farce.

    The commentary was viscous and almost personal. It was not unusual. The pundits knew what was going on. They knew that Gillard was not capable of leadership. The recriminations would be severe. The Rudd forces were right all along. They would now be re-energised. And so it went, paragraph after paragraph, paper after paper.

    They obviously knew something the prime minister didn’t know.

    Whoops, suddenly the game changes. At just after midday on Friday afternoon in the bowels of the Parliament House media room, in strode the prime minister to face the salivating scribes – with a grinning Carr at her side.

    After the gasps, the gapes and all the murmurs and the reshuffle announcement came the questions. Gillard was rightly questioned about her qualified statements about not having offered the job to Carr. She had been unconvincing. Yes, she had spoken to Carr, but a formal offer was not made.

    The Opposition, of course, went to town questioning her leadership, her judgement and her character. They had read the same reports.

    Julie Bishop – foreign affairs minister in the Abbott government – called Gillard “silly, slippery, slimy and shifty”. Wonder if it’s still her view? Guess it probably is.

    But, after all the microscopic examination of her words, and all the meetings and phone calls, Gillard, when it counted, produced a result. In the circumstances she had no choice.

    And just as adroitly the learned commentary changed. History was quickly rewritten, papered-over and justified by the same people who had ridiculed the subject.

    Have no doubt, the Carr appointment was a significant victory for Gillard – one that showed the key trait of her prime ministership: determination.

    She may not be a marketer. She may not be smart politically. But she gets outcomes.

    Carr made an impressive start. He praised Rudd’s foreign policy achievements and set out his broad themes and goals. He’s tailor-made for the job – and showed plainly that Gillard’s judgement was right.

    Now, none of this may mean a thing when it comes to voter perceptions of Gillard and her government.

    The Rudd-Gillard open war left the Liberal Party with an unprecedented treasure trove of already written ads, a bit like the ads the Democrats will use in the US as Obama seeks a second term.

    And it may do nothing to alter the mainstream media narrative that Gillard is not up to the job.

    Once the press gallery come to a collective view, it’s hard to shift. But – and this is a big ‘but’ – the Gillard victory may play out in the wider community in an unexpected way.

    She may now been seen as a clever politician who has a measure of steel and resolve. They may see her battling through the media storm that surrounds her.

    It points to that proven old maxim in politics: expect the unexpected.

    Her reshuffle, caused by Rudd’s return to the backbench, is not the story of the week. The story is how she overcame what were seen by the Canberra pack as more bungles, more missteps and turned it into an ‘up yours’.

    She has started to act like a prime minister with authority, finally – behind the scenes, and well as in front of them.

    Alister Drysdale is a Business Spectator commentator and a former senior advisor to Malcolm Fraser and Jeff Kennett.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Bob-Carr-pd20120305-S3QRF?OpenDocument&src=sph

  7. lizzie

    Thanks. Frankly, i would prefer Abbott stay as LOTO for a while longer. I want him to explain the Libs policies going into the future

  8. [Gordon Graham ‏ @gordongraham Close
    Clive Palmer, Twiggy Forrest, Gerry Harvey, Abbott, Joe Hockey etc don’t seem to realise they’ve played right into Swan’s hands #fairgo
    9:19 AM – 5 Mar 12

    Gordon Graham ‏ @gordongraham Close
    they could’ve deprived Swan’s essay of oxygen, but now they’ve positioned him on the side of the average Australian and their family #fairgo
    9:21 AM – 5 Mar 12]

  9. http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Finkelstein-report-News-Media-Council-regulation-pd20120305-S3RVE?opendocument&src=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    [Why Finkelstein is not Judge Dredd
    Alan Kohler
    Published 7:56 AM, 5 Mar 2012 Last update 7:56 AM, 5 Mar 2012

    The Australian media will now crank their huffing and puffing machinery into gear to resist the imposition of Dread Regulation, but they probably won’t discuss the real reason for the dread.]

  10. victoria
    Same here.
    I saw him “preparing” for a speech yesterday. As he waited for the media to get settled, the lizard-like mouth opening and shutting and the tongue flicking was, perhaps, an indication of more nerves than usual.

  11. Dave
    [I see the Crikey website is back being hosted in the U.S. ?

    Yesterday earlier on it was an Australian host site.]
    Bugger, that probably means they’ve backed the changeover out and they’re going to have to do it all over again, presumably with the same level of disruption.
    Must say I’m starting to wonder if it isn’t the servers or the software that’s the problem, but rather the level of capability of Crikey’s IT gurus.

  12. I think “I will be the next PM” from phoney Tony will go down badly with voters in general.

    He seems to forget he is DISLIKED by a marjority of Aussies and will lead to him becoming more and more over confident as time goes by.

    Latest Morgan poll has 52- 48 in LNP favour – not an insurmountable gap for Gillard and Labor to make up in 18 months esp if the media actually start to focus on Abbott and the fools he leads.

  13. [Julie Bishop – foreign affairs minister in the Abbott government – called Gillard “silly, slippery, slimy and shifty”. Wonder if it’s still her view? Guess it probably is.]

    Perhaps she might scratch the “silly” bit. But knowing how silly Bishop is, perhaps not.

  14. Of course, Palmer’s miscalculation is using the “I have no ego” phrase in a week where every sports enthusiast in the country knows that he’s out there trying to start up his own league because the existing one won’t do what he wants.

    Your average sports enthusiast isn’t big on politics. Many of them won’t have any idea of what Swan said.

    But when Palmer comes out with “I have no ego” and then follows it with a spray against the Treasurer, they’ve immediately twigged him as a liar and view his comments through that prism.

  15. Guys, truth is we have no idea how Turnbull would go as leader. He was, after being LOTO for a while, pretty unpopular. Seen as a rich windbag more than anything. How would he go being LOTO now? A bounce yes, but it might go back. Remember, he’s to the RIGHT of Abbott on Health, Education, Tax, and IR.

    For now, some soft heads on the soft left, as well as some of the general public, think he’s “better than Abbott”, the urbane guy in a leather jacket on Q&A who talks well and who doesn’t have a scary stare. Very vague memories of being pro an ETS as LOTO.

    However, ALP supporters should be careful of wishing for, or talking up a change of leader. It might or might not work for us. Better to concentrate on talking up good policy. Personally, I don’t think it will be changed before 2013. It’s no longer “just one vote” that Abbott holds the office by. There are more Lib MPs after 2010, who got there under Abbott’s leadership, and they are not at all ready to face the real policy restructuring required under a new leader. Another defeat would be required.

  16. [Wayne Swan ‏ @SwannyDPM
    Today’s full page newspaper ads help prove the point I’m making about vested interests having a disproportionate say in debates #FairGo]

  17. Swanny dear, we all knew that already. I wish you’d come out fighting when the battle over taxing miners was full on.

  18. eric – that Morgan F2F 52-48 is worthless. They are not reliable and have now gone back to their historical trend of being biased to the ALP. Throw in the nominated vs past election preferences confusion, and you know you just can’t hold them up to the phone polls. Apart from looking at overall movement trends, they are worthless.

    Wait until a few more phone polls (not one or two), aggregate the results (as Possum does), then we’ll know where we are at post leadership spill etc.

  19. lizzie

    Swannie could not come out fighting at that time. Rudd was well and truly off the rails. The govt was indeed in a chaotic situation

  20. Finns is there any scope for including in the BISONS a comparison between the current Federal tax take as a % of GDP and that applying under Howard & Costello? It would be great if the favourable comparison could be made and, if accurate, a reference to Howard’s being the highest taxing Government in Australia’s history. I understand this last point drives the LNP wild and would be a good point to help knock over the Howard/Costello economic myth.

    In many ways the economic argument won’t be won by only drawing attention to Australia’s great performance compared to the rest of the World but in tearing down the nonsense that the LNP are superior economic managers.

  21. lizzie

    [Swanny dear, we all knew that already. I wish you’d come out fighting when the battle over taxing miners was full on.]

    I agree with you!

  22. dave @ 2455

    dave
    Posted Monday, March 5, 2012 at 9:20 am | Permalink
    I see the Crikey website is back being hosted in the U.S. ?

    Yesterday earlier on it was an Australian host site.

    It did not last long at all on an Australian host.
    So presumably the transfer to an Australian server failed and we now have to go through all this again.
    Does Crikey employ amateurs?

  23. [“There are allegations of lies, deceit, cash payments, bribes, eavesdropping, multiple breaches of trust and the perversion of justice and due process, corruption and downright malfeasance on such a scale that we should be asking how our society tolerated all that flows from Rupert Murdoch’s power.”]

    Indeed.

  24. Katharine Murphy often starts her articles with a lofty piece of philosophy, apparently conceding that journalists “get it wrong” sometimes. But hey, they’re only human, right? Nevertheless they should try harder she usually concedes generously, etc. etc….

    There is always a “but” of course, and today’s “but” is that Bob Carr and Julia Gillard make the journalists’ job harder by being… gulp… precise in their language.

    [We in political journalism also deal daily with spin, obfuscation, obstruction, half-truth and outright lies. Last week Bob Carr issued a statement saying: ”Prime Minister Gillard had definitely not made any offer about the Foreign Affairs Ministry, nor had anyone on her behalf.” It was not happening, in other words.]

    No, it was not “not happening”. It just hadn’t happened. There is a difference, one however that Murphy thinks is “spin, obfuscation, obstruction, half truth” or “outright lies”… perhaps all five.

    Seeing as no offer had been made to Carr, and seeing as a whole lot of things could go wrong twixt “having a chat” and “making an offer” (and let’s not forget “accepting an offer” and “making the announcement” as part of the process) it seems to me Carr was accurate and truthful. He just wasn’t saying what the journalists wanted him to say.

    The penchant among scribes for scribbling furiously, making predictions about an outcome that is going to be announced in an hour anyway, can be set down to their vanity. They like to be seen as being able to predict the future. They also like to score a scoop over their opposition.

    Thus (see my comment from last night, #2384), in the matter of Bob Carr, we have both Coorey and Shanahan claiming bragging rights over who broke the Carr story first. Let us leave it to Phil and Dennis to squabble over who was the fastest with the mostest. The more salient feature of this journalistic turf war is that simply reporting that “Bob Carr’s been offered a job” isn’t much past curio interest, unless you do something with it.

    And there is where the pundits got it, to use JG’s words, “completely wrong”.

    Katharine Murphy sees no difference between “discussions”, “offers” (made by someone in authority), and “sealing the deal”. On Monday night, the most that could be said with accuracy was that discussions had taken place with no firm outcome. When those discussions did not eventuate in a sealing of the deal, a sexy possibility became apparent: Gillard had been rolled.

    And that became the story.

    In their zeal to equate having a chat over the phone with the formal appointment of Bob Carr as FM, followed by a humiliating backdown from Gillard, the journos got it wrong. Despite Katharine Murphy’s weasel words and noble chest thumping about the glorious profession of hournalism, “wrong” seems appropriate. Why?

    Because Bob Carr and Julia Gillard said what they meant, and Katharine and her mates didn’t think that was sexy enough.

    If they had not tried to tart up the story by turning it into another “Gillard has no authority over the Faceless Men” yarn, then the report would have been a routine one of “such and such is also under consideration”, perhaps with “in a surprise move” in front of it. No more than that. And there were plenty of those, concerning Crean, Smith, Kim Carr, McClelland, and a gaggle of others, even Joel Fitzgibbon.

    But no, the smartarses at the big dailies went for the throat. They neglected to listen to what Carr and Gillard said in answer to their questions. They turned a chat over the phone into a party room revolt and ran with the story.

    Then, on Friday it all went to shit, they had the hide to blame Gillard for deceiving them.

    No, they just didn’t listen.

    [We political journalists drive our sources crazy asking for perfect transparency. We never get it. We never get it because governments couldn’t actually govern if they provided perfect transparency. So politicians tell us what they can, consistent with their responsibilities and self-interest, and we piece things together.]

    This is EXACTLY what happened – Carr and Gillard told the scribblers what they could – but the chooks ignored this modest truth in favour of the bit of flashy skirt at the next lamp post, the one with “Mutiny” tattooed on its thigh.

    [So what would these more powerful media regulators that Finkelstein proposes do with shades of grey, and supple truths? When there’s imperfection and fallibility to be found on all sides, who gets the right of reply?]

    AS regards shades of grey and supple truths, my suggestion would be to report them as such, rather than make up a Viking saga of destruction, revenge and ultimate valhalla in the cabinet room that just wasn’t true, then blaming the subject of the wrong reports for causing all this trouble.

    Murphy seems to be saying, “We all knew what Carr really meant,” but from the way things turned out, they clearly did not.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/feeding-frenzy-of-news-20120304-1ub05.html#ixzz1oBkbW9tt

  25. [So presumably the transfer to an Australian server failed and we now have to go through all this again.
    Does Crikey employ amateurs?]

    What about, at least, giving the changeover a fair go before attacking so personally?

  26. [victoria
    Posted Monday, March 5, 2012 at 9:47 am | Permalink
    mari

    I am wishing it to be so!!]
    So am I and I am getting more confident, think the newspapers will be the sections to be shed as they are loss making sections, can’t wait to see Dennis S, Andrew B, Piers A etc sending out their resumes in a vain hope of being employed again!

  27. [Tom Hawkins
    Posted Monday, March 5, 2012 at 9:55 am | Permalink
    mari@2471

    Has Leveson finally delivered a mortal blow to Rupert Murdoch?

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/mar/04/hnery-porter-rupert-murdoch-corruption

    That is such a good read. It has cheered me up no end.

    I went to bed a very happy little” chookie” last night after reading it on a Twitter link, see my comments 2485 re the paper arms of Murdoch, their days are numbered please oh please

  28. Interesting article from Kohler –

    Why Finkelstein is not Judge Dredd

    Alan Kohler

    …But leaving aside ad absurdum extensions of Finkelstein’s recommendation, it doesn’t seem to me to be an outrageous idea that complaints about mistreatment by the media should be taken seriously and redressed.

    Lies ARE deliberately published, and while it’s true that defamation laws exist to protect the wronged, that’s often too heavy-handed and expensive. Far better to just enforce a correction and apology published and move on.

    Also, decent publishers and editors would have nothing to fear: they already happily publish corrections and apologies

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Finkelstein-report-News-Media-Council-regulation-pd20120305-S3RVE?OpenDocument&src=sph

  29. Is Carr being sworn in today using the constitutional clause allowing a minister 3 months to gain a seat?
    If so when was the last time this was used – my guess would be 1901and the first ministry.

  30. Of course, no one seems to have considered the possibility that Gillard had not thought of recruiting Carr for FM, until the media told her she wasn’t going to do it…

  31. mari

    Just imagine if the phone hacking of members of parliament and police officers was being conducted by a foreign power. What then would be the ramifications?

    One of the recommendations of the inquiry must include comment that the Murdochs are not fit and proper people to hold licences to print or broadcast in the UK.

  32. joe2 @ 2483

    What about, at least, giving the changeover a fair go before attacking so personally?

    What changeover?
    Crikey is still running on US servers. The changeover did not go as planned and has failed.
    It will now have to be done again.
    I have experience managing such IT changes and, properly planned and executed, they do not often fail.

  33. OC

    My understanding is that Carr will not be sworn in today as the nominations for the Senate seat don’t close until 5pm today. Given that he will most likely be unopposed he will been sworn in when his nomination has been declared.

  34. Is Carr being sworn in today using the constitutional clause allowing a minister 3 months to gain a seat?

    ABC says he will wait till BOF approves.

  35. [Finns is there any scope for including in the BISONS a comparison between the current Federal tax take as a % of GDP and that applying under Howard & Costello? ]

    Co, it’s already there:

    102. Political Fundamental

    1. “ALP best manager of money, history shows” – George Megalogenis READ MORE
    http://t.co/kKeIyVjI

    2. No interest rise for the 14th consecutive month (last rise was Nov 2010) Vs 10 consecutive rises under Howard/Costello. The lowest rate, since 1960, of 3% was in April 2009 under Labor. Lowest under Howard 4.25%, Fraser 7.65%, Gorton 5.7%, McMahon 4.3%). Interest rates will always be lower under Labor.

    3. “The Atlantic magazine named Gillard as one of its “2011 brave thinkers” for her resolute strength in pushing through a carbon tax. “Whether you see the move as politically expedient or as a principled course correction, there’s no denying the risk that it entails in a country where climate change is a wildly contentious issue,” writes Geoffrey Gagnon”

    4. Labor’s Tax take 21.75% of GDP Vs 25% under Liberals

  36. zoomster
    [Of course, no one seems to have considered the possibility that Gillard had not thought of recruiting Carr for FM, until the media told her she wasn’t going to do it…]
    An auto reverse wedgie ? A delicious thought 😆

  37. Zoomster – I am not sure that it is fair to say that the average sport enthusiast is not big on politics although I found Palmer’s comment that he doesn’t have an ego laughable for his behavior with he Gold Coast has been nothing short of ego

    I think calling Palmer a national treasure is highly questionable, what has he actually done to achieve it.

  38. [I think calling Palmer a national treasure is highly questionable, what has he actually done to achieve it.]

    He dug all the national treasure up and kept it for himself.

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