Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,750 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Interesting dinner conversation last night, with two gentlemen.

    Both Ruddistas (not going to vote for Labor under any circumstances, never have, but ‘we voted in Rudd’). Turnbullites (no idea what his policies would be, disagree with him on the NBN, but he’s a successful businessman so he must be good).

    Julia is teh evil. Didn’t want to hear anything which might suggest otherwise.

    They were furious about the Carr affair. Not because it was badly handled, but because it was a good thing which might change votes.

    Because Labor is going to lose and Labor must lose.

    So I pointed out that, if Labor lost, there’d be no NBN. No health reform. No mining tax (they want that, didn’t think it went far enough). No pokies reform. etc etc etc

    They want all of those things to happen. They put their trust in MT’s leadership to deliver all of these.

    They thought the Liberal front bench was appalling, and the incoming Liberals (O’Dwyer etc) appalling also.

    But Labor had to go, for the good of Australia.

    Given that, I asked them to name one single positive thing that a Liberal government would do which would make it worthwhile voting them in and losing all the Labor reforms they support.

    ‘Increased productivity’ – which, on further questioning, turned out to be code for ‘lower wages’.

    They’re small businessmen. For some unaccountable reason (I wasn’t allowed to suggest the GFC, which apparently had nothing to do with Australia) people aren’t spending as much.

    I pointed out that people don’t spend more when they’re being paid lower wages.

    ‘You’re wrong. You don’t know what you’re talking about.’

    ‘We’re small business. There’s no point voting Labor, they don’t understand small business.”

    (Took me back to my childhood, when Dad switched from voting Labor because he opened a small business. Switched back again very quickly).

  2. [confessions
    Posted Saturday, March 3, 2012 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    Yesterday the HoR committee looking at Australia’s biodiversity in the face of climate change heard public submissions.

    I haven’t seen or heard any reportage of this, which is interesting given the fuss and carry-on given to the carbon pricing legislation. ]

    You want the political reporters to report on what is actually happening in parliament. come on, that hasn’t happened for decades.

    The wankers have had serious stuff to deal with; like what may or may not have been said while the PM was getting her skittles in a row to bring Bob Carr into parliament.

  3. Deng XiaoPing once: “it doesnt matter the colour of the cat, as long as it catches mouse” PM caught mouse but #MSMhacks worry abt the colour

  4. The Courier Mail’s Dennis Atkins:

    [POLITICAL leaders usually have at least one walk through the metaphorical equivalent of the fires of Hades in their careers.

    Julia Gillard must sometimes feel she has been engulfed in those Dante depths for most of the 20 months of her prime-ministership.

    Yesterday she used the great political weapon of the Very Big Surprise to roll over a week of messy news flowing out of an emphatic win in caucus over Kevin Rudd and reclaim the voice she has been cultivating in the past few weeks.

    The announcement of Bob Carr – former NSW premier and a genuine international figure in the region and on the other side of the Pacific – as foreign affairs minister has the elements of the game-changer Gillard has wished for and actively sought, since the indecisive election result of August, 2010.

    After the complicated series of stories, in which the Carr deal was on, off, vetoed, urged and postponed, Gillard had to push this depiction of political sausage-making to one side and also demonstrate her authority in the Government and her party. She has.]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/pm-delivers-carr-promise-in-extra-drive/story-e6frerdf-1226287714500

  5. [yawn … Govt a shambles … doesn’t matter what actually happens the media does it as a govt in shambles story.]

    I expect the road ahead to remain bumpy. If in 6 months or so the government start to see some solid improvement in the 2PP it will be interesting to see which of the journalists will lead the others in stating that Labor just might get reelected. Then drip or two will become a trickle and then a flow of scribes who won’t want to be left on the wrong side of history.

    If I was JG I’d call on Bob Carr for advice each and every day. Carr is the consummate professional in the John Fawkner mold and could be trusted to offer good advice on any issue. Bob Carr must also be electioneering in every Labor seat in NSW throughout March to polling day in 2013.

  6. Interesting story zoom, I run into snippits of it all time. Julia a shambles govt must go for the good of the country.

    NBN gets a lot of the ‘we don’t really need’ ignorance, particularly from inner city types who ‘already have it’ and aren’t interested in paying for like national infrastructure for others.

    There was a letter to the editor in the Finn yesterday which was essentially economic journalists shouldn’t talk about Howard being the highest taxing PM ever because it didn’t ‘feel’ like it at the time. Essentially it was a don’t contradict my ignorance and feelings with like facts. Almost cut it out to keep.

  7. [ yawn … Govt a shambles … doesn’t matter what actually happens the media does it as a govt in shambles story.

    I expect the road ahead to remain bumpy. If in 6 months or so the government start to see some solid improvement in the 2PP it will be interesting to see which of the journalists will lead the others in stating that Labor just might get reelected. Then drip or two will become a trickle and then a flow of scribes who won’t want to be left on the wrong side of history.

    If I was JG I’d call on Bob Carr for advice each and every day. Carr is the consummate professional in the John Fawkner mold and could be trusted to offer good advice on any issue. Bob Carr must also be electioneering in every Labor seat in NSW throughout March to polling day in 2013.]

    Your optimism is impressive.

  8. Carney says the CT is the most electorally toxic piece of legislation there has ever been, but surely the GST, which almost buried Howard (losing about 18 seats) and Workchoices, which did bury him (losing about sixteen seats), were just as toxic as anything else we have ever seen. Mr Carney seems to have a very short memory.

    Also, until the CT actually begins, along with the various compensations that come with it, neither he or anyone else is in any position to judge how electorally toxic it is, let alone declare it the most toxic ever.

  9. fredn:

    Yes, I’m probably being naive. But most news outlets employ more than one journalist in Canberra – how many does the ABC have for eg? Why is it necessary for all of them to be covering the same story? It seems a very inefficient use of resources to me.

  10. The MSM are all over the Carr story this morning, like malevolent uncles and aunties chuckling to themselves how the naughty neice put one over them.

    “We tried our best to make it into a saga, but that cheeky Julia, she outsmarted us this time.”

    Try: “Wiped the floor with us”.

    Naughty Julia got them, to a man and woman, to say what a terrible shame it was that Carr didn’t get the FM gig, how wonderful he would have been, and how grubby the faceless men were who put their petty manoeuvreing in the caucus room ahead of the clear national interest of having a grown-up as our flag carrier to the world.

    One by one, professors and think tank “experts” were lined up to tell us that Gillard was just a simple girl who’d let herself be pushed around by the “roosters and feather dusters” scrabbling around for better deck chairs on the RMS Labor Titanic.

    Within 24 hours they’d written her off as “destroyed”, “failed”, “botched”. Heads they won, tails she lost… she was either giving in to the factional faceless men – including Sam Dastyari, whom they depicted as a yokelish, ignorant numbers man from NSW – looking for a dividend from their shallow support for her (a third of the caucus hate her, right?), or she was courting disaster, putting her head on the block for later placement on a spike once the machine droids of Labor had decided who should replace her down the track a little.

    Once Wednesday had come along, they’d set up Carr as the only possible person who could conceivably replace the brilliant and well-liked Rudd, master of the foreign stage… why did we ever get rid of Kevin in the first place?

    All through this Gillard weaved her way through their rudeness and outright nastiness. Smiling sweetly, keeping her secrets to herself, as she had said she would from the outset. “It’s my decision,” she told them, and told them again. But they wouldn’t listen.

    Featherweight clothes horse Julie Bishop was so confident that she even got up to make a speech in the House, proposing an SSO. She sounded more like a speed debater, one of those back benchers who gets up before QT to rattle out as many mentions of local footy heroes who’d won the regional trophy as they could, before Slippery shut them up. Every catty, bitchy epithet she’d ever workshopped with her malignant mates was crammed into 10 glorious minutes of manic, vicious sarcasm. It even got a play on the nightly news, the really nasty bits, that is.

    Shanahan had said that Gillard had withdrawn an offer made to Carr. He didn’t say it was an offer Gillard had made, just that it was an offer. He said a lot of other things too. In his rush to make his point before he’d presented his evidence he told his readers she’d lost authority, had suffered a mutiny, and all in one day from beating Rudd. That was his second sentence, on Tuesday.

    Later on, when she said his story was completely untrue, a slap in the face if ever he’d copped one, he got his gofer Matt Franklin to inaccurately reiterate his story, prior to adding some extra anecdotal waffle to an already shaky thesis, although by now the contact with Carr had turned into a “Labor offer”: Gillard was no longer part of it, just “Labor”. What smarmy weasel words, uttered by a true rodent of the news media, from his sheltered, subsidized workshop, a loss maker for decades, touting itself as the “national broadsheet”, but in reality simply doing his master’s bidding. Dennis thought we wouldn’t notice.

    The entire week hinged on the word “completely”.

    So, to her shame, Grattan, the jealous old crone, looking for revenge after being smacked down in Monday’s presser, invented a new rule for senior journalists. They only had to get a story “partly correct” to trigger an avalanche of contempt, sniggering, condemnation and slagging against the PM. They all joined in.

    The mere seed of a story was sufficient to require the Prime Minister to stop doing whatever she was doing (for they didn’t know what it was) and to rebut them line by line, parsing their Nostradamus-like, but utterly uninformed pronouncements, quatrain by quatrain, or suffering the consequences. “This is fun!” they could be heard chortling as they nuanced the threadbare facts at their disposal with the weightiness of their infallible opinions, weaving them all together into yet another routine dismemberment of their favourite sitting duck, Julia Gillard.

    And then Julia walked into the press conference with Bob Carr at her side. You could hear actual gasping as she did so. She smiled sweetly at Bob. Bob smiled sweetly at her, made a humourous reference to her voice, and told everyone he couldn’t have refused the job if he’d wanted to. Julie Bishop may have had her day with roosters and feather dusters, but Julia Gillard ended the week with chooks and old boilers alike covered in chickenshit.

    Yes, it was a saga, but one of their own making. They complained a little. One or two whinged how they’d laid their trap and the PM and somehow avoided it. Hats off to her, but they get her next time. No hard feelings, they chuckled.

    There was a policy wonk on ABC radio this morning who said, yes it was a brilliant coup, but it wouldn’t save the government (whoever said it would?).

    Kelly mumbled something oracular. Never mind the Prime Minister, is anyone listening to him any more?

    Shanahan made out that he’d seen it coming all along and dived for cover.

    2GB had a phone-in about Bob Carr, to the effect that he’d been the worst ever premier of any state (funny, no-one mentioned the Best Ever Olympics).

    And meanwhile, as the whole nation laughed, Wayne Swan had simultaneously activated a time bomb that could blow up the pompous blowhards who call themselves “Australia’s business leaders” (Clive did a pretty good job on himself by getting chucked out of the Soccer Federation and then buying his own, staffed by his rellies and, speaking of rellies, hasn’t Gina inherited a bunch of shockers?).

    Having set Bob Carr up as a golden opportunity lost to the seedy battleground of Labor’s faceless men, the media have had, today, to stick to their paens of praise about the man and laud the appointment. 24 hours is too soon for even their dopey readers not to notice their praise turn to condemnation.

    Some of the more foolhardy hacks have even used the word “brilliant” as an adjective. Grattan is still moaning that her prey escaped the web of gotchas she’d set up to ensnare her, and Shanahan is off licking his wounds, as he tries to remember where he put that ouji board of his.

    Yeah sure, there’ll be another scandal tomorrow, or the next day. Newspoll’s coming up, remember? But this week the Good Guys had a big win. It was effortless, elegant and painful. I’ll take that for the time being.

  11. [Carney says the CT is the most electorally toxic piece of legislation there has ever been, but surely the GST, which almost buried Howard (losing about 18 seats) and Workchoices, which did bury him (losing about sixteen seats), were just as toxic as anything else we have ever seen. Mr Carney seems to have a very short memory.]

    The CT got two electoral mandates, the GST never got one (yes Howard took it to an election and won but the Democrats had promised to oppose the GST and failed to do it).

    Mr Carney is just making stuff up.

  12. [ Interesting dinner conversation last night, with two gentlemen. ]

    I had a frustrating conversation late last year with a guy I know who has a very good CBD white collar job and also owns 2 bakeries with his partner in an inner trendy suburb of Melbourne. He is totally convinced that the carbon tax has ruined the businesses. And no amount of talk (not as though he will entertain much before he goes all catty) will change his view or his contempt of JG.
    My local drycleaner dripping in gold chains and his Mercedes sitting in the carpark ditto.

  13. Oh and of course it was the lagging half of the senate that stopped it with Rudd. It wasn’t abandoned or squibbed or lack of Rudd Heart, the senate killed it. Don’t understand why so many ‘labor’ posters get this so wrong. OTOH I understand why the Greens try and rewrite that term of govt.

  14. [Carney says the CT is the most electorally toxic piece of legislation there has ever been]

    Which is nothing more than hysterical guff when you consider the whole reason we have carbon pricing is to transition to non-polluting forms of energy in order to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, which are contributing to dangerous global warming.

    How dangerous, in particular to Australia and its biodiversity? We don’t know, because rather than report on an important parliamentary committee hearing yesterday, Canberra journos like Shaun Carney would prefer pontificating about sideshow matters than tell us what is actually happening in parliament.

    I simply despair!

  15. Zoomster, Dr J

    The questions that you could be asking your acquaintances are:

    Were they Labor or potential Labor voters ie did they vote Labor in 2007 or 2010?
    What could Gillard/anyone else do to make them change their minds?

    These are the the questions which any one interested in politics and polling need to answer. If they were never Labor voters in 2007 or 2010 then more or less ignore their views (unless young and changeable).

    If however they were labor voters then the emphasis needs to be how to get them back

  16. Dr John

    What I found heartening was the support for Labor’s policy agenda, and in that I see the key to victory in 2013.

    These guys hated the Labor party because they hated the Labor party. They didn’t hate what it was trying to achieve. And they hated the Carr appointment because it indicates that Gillard has the smarts needed to win in 2013 (although they denied that was going to happen, because she was going to be punished for her treatment of Rudd. I pointed out that that happened in the 2010 election, and she still is PM).

    If these ALP haters (of course, they don’t see themselves that way; they see themselves as apolitical swinging voters who just happen to have never voted Labor) want all of the ALP reforms to happen, then think of how genuine swinging voters are going to feel in the run up to the next election, when Turnbull hasn’t taken over the Libs (or if he has, hasn’t departed much, if at all, from the Abbott songbook) and their choice is the ALP and a swag of desired reforms or the Liberals and nothing.

    Over 50% of the population (according to the polls) support each of Labor’s major reforms. Many of these aren’t voting Labor, trusting either to a Rudd or Turnbull takeover to deliver what they want. When they see that isn’t going to happen – or isn’t going to deliver what they want – the chances are they’ll vote to keep the reform process on track.

    Votes can shift very quickly during an election campaign, partly because before one, voters can project onto the Opposition party anything they want to. At some stage, however, the Opposition party – whoever it might be – has to indicate what they’re actually going to do.

    I’m feeling increasingly confident that Gillard can do it, and do it more easily than the polls lead one to imagine.

  17. daretotread

    never Labor voters.

    Of course you talk to them. Knowing what the other side thinks/believes is essential. Not knowing means you’re not prepared for the arguments when they pop up in the public sphere.

  18. BB @ 1710

    PM Julia executed a beautiful collective “Rope-A-Dope” on the MSM & the noalition over the Carr appointment. An auspicious addition to the “Rise & Rise of Julia Gillard” since her resounding leadership victory.

  19. The hostility to the CT will settle down after July PROVIDED electricity and grocery prices do not rise dramatically. If consumers get hit with big electricity and gas price rises within three months of the CT then they will blame the CT (with a lot of help from Tony). This is the dangerous shoal Gillard and Combet need to navigate.

    Not sure how to address it. Misleading advertisement laws???????, However it does need to be handled and well. Compensation in pensions although ethically a great idea may not be linked tightly enough to win the PR war.

  20. zoomster,
    Next time maybe ask them why they are so unsuccessful as businessmen that are unable to pay fair wages. Commiserate with them in their bad luck to have so weak a business model that the only way they can be profitable is by wage reduction. Remind them that truly successful and sustainable businesses see good wages as an investment they must make to attract and keep staff, and to maintain the long term value of the business; and it is such a pity there are not that successful. “Here have another glass of red to drown your sorrows, when are the receivers due?”

  21. Dare there is no way electricity prices wont rise dramatically, probably everywhere, and guaranteed in the many liberal states. Almost nothing at all to do with CT but you wont read / see that in the media.

  22. I saw that presser where Toxic Tony with the Floppy Loppy kept calling Julia Gillard a liar, over and over again.

    At some stage beyond her PMship, could Julia Gillard sue for slander?

  23. “And then Julia walked into the press conference with Bob Carr at her side. You could hear actual gasping as she did so. She smiled sweetly at Bob. Bob smiled sweetly at her,”

    Wonderful scene indeed. Her golden top and their beaming eyes – simply unforgettable.

  24. I suppose politicians are fair game, to each other and observers. After all Toxic Tony with the Floppy Loppy rumoured to be sans wedding ring couldn’t lie straight in bed.

  25. Puff

    Living in a very popular tourist area, we have a perpetual problem with people who buy a business here (often on impulse) as a lifestyle choice, who often have little or no experience running one.

    Surprise, surprise, many of them do badly (some do brilliantly). The ones who do badly never blame themselves. That’s a bit too painful. It’s always the fault of the Shire or the guvmint.

    The ones who do brilliantly, on the other hand, are full of praise of the Shire and the guvmint, and say they couldn’t have succeeded without their support.

  26. WeWantPaul

    [
    Your optimism is impressive.

    Do you see a glass half empty?

    If only it had that much water in it.]

    Reminds me of the old engineer’s joke – “Is the glass half full or half empty? Neither. The container is over engineered for the task.”

  27. [WeWantPaul

    Your optimism is impressive.

    Do you see a glass half empty?

    If only it had that much water in it.

    Reminds me of the old engineer’s joke – “Is the glass half full or half empty? Neither. The container is over engineered for the task.”]

    Good to leave with a smile, have a good day bludgers

  28. BB

    Thanks again. A brilliant read, and on the mark as usual. I missed the whole presser and saw the replay after I knew the annoucement of Carr, but it was absolute gold to see the chooks getting covered im their own excrement. Glorious indeed

  29. Confessions @ 1723
    When I opened the 2nd link I won a bullshit Iphone prize etc with bells and whistles but then the problems started as I couldn’t exit and then had to finally turn off at pp.
    Buyer beware

  30. Zoomster

    Agree about needing to know how the other side think. I guess what I think we all need to do when talking to voters is to identify the real swingers and the issues that will cause them to return (or stay).

    I think there are really three issues on which a government is judged:

    1. Integrity and the way people view the leader (and other high profile members)
    2. Leadership which includes vision – ie the ideas and plans and there capacity to sell these. It is about convincing people that your way is the right way
    3. Competence ie getting the job done with as few stuff ups as possible. This is the criterion by which the old adage “Oppositions doe not win elections, governments lose them” plays powerfully.

    Like it or not out there is voter land the Gillard government scores badly on integrity, and average on leadership and competence.

    Abbott’s opposition scores just above average on integrity, very low on vision and because they are in opposition gets an even score on competence although lost a few brownie points on the costings stuff ups.

  31. Mega on Abbott’s PPL scheme:

    [The Abbott approach is costly because it doesn’t discriminate between part-time and full-time workers. So someone who was earning $20,000 a year before they had a baby is not that much better off under the coalition — they get the existing government payment of $590 a week for 26 weeks, not 18 weeks — $15,340 instead of $10,620. Labor will no doubt close this gap one day because, as readers will see, it doesn’t require that much extra spending.

    But a professional on more than $150,000 a year would receive $75,000 from Abbott and nothing from Labor. There are 400 lucky women in this category. Their votes are unlikely to swing the next election, but Abbott wants them to know that he feels their pain.]

    That’s an awful lot of money for just 400 women (I thought men also qualified??).

    [Departmental calculations show the difference on paid parental leave of $2.9bn divides as follows: $350m comes from the Coalition’s inclusion of the 9 per cent superannuation levy; $722m is the eight-week extension for part-time working mums earning less than $31,000 a year; and the final $1.828bn is explained by the higher payments going to those on more than $31,000 a year.

    If Labor were to match the first two and not the third, they would expose the Abbott scheme for its true excess. That last $1.828bn is sprayed at many families that simply don’t need the extra money.]

    Now that Labor has resolved its leadership, and sorted out its frontbench, it can start to put the spotlight on these figures and highlight Abbott’s own wasteful spending. You can see why there are tensions in the partyroom over this issue, and that they’d really start to crack under scrutiny.

  32. Poor old Dennis Shanahan. He was just on Sydney radio (2UE) after 9:30 am talking about how accurate he was this week, and he made this incredible statement about Bob Carr’s appointment to the Senate.

    It is up to the State Parliament of NSW….. Premier O’Farrell can torpedo this…. don’t see why he should rush to help Labor.

    The interview continued until the radio guy mentioned that three people had phoned in to say he was wrong because of the referendum in the 1970’s. Poor old Shanahan could only feebly admit he was wrong, by saying he was not very strong on constitutional history.

    He also gave a history lesson on the original 1963 “faceless men” story (admin wing of ALP dictating policy to Labor political wing) and he got it largely correct. Although as I type this another caller has just pointed out Dennis was wrong to say Whitlam was leader of the ALP when the original “faceless men” story happened. Calwell was actually the Leader and Whitlam the Deputy.
    Oh well , maybe Dennis isn’t very good on political history.

    (There will be a podcast of his interview on the 2UE website in the next 24 hours so my quotes can be verified)

  33. Dr John:

    Click on the 2nd link in Grog’s tweet, and then choose the first link from Google.

    You’ll avoid all the OO traps and paywall that way.

  34. WWP

    Sadly I agree with you. Which also sadly means that the government will cop a hiding on this. It will not be fair or reasonable I agree but it will happen nevertheless.

  35. confessions

    According to a tweet from Ryhs Muldoon yesterday, there are troubles in coalition land

    [ Rhys Muldoon
    @rhysam
    In other news, I’m hearing there’s real trouble afoot in coalition ranks. Makes a change.
    #auspol]

  36. Reproduced below, with some excellent pinot noir induced typos cleaned up, is an extract from my original PB post last night that started all the biffo with William overnight.

    “Amazing what a trip to the Australian produces.

    Here’s the opening paras from their the first four Opinion pieces:

    “Julie Bishop checkmates Julia Gillard in credibility gap ” Tony Dusevic, National Chief Reporter

    “JULIA Gillard’s ability to turn good news – a brilliant political strategy, a poignant moment, or an opportunity to become strong, credible and assertive – into bad news and dumb politics appears to be boundless.” Denis Shanahan, Political Editor”

    “No country for true believers after Monday’s bloody showdown.” Richo

    But my absolute favourite, my rolled gold accolade, goes to Greg Sheridan, the OO’s Foreign Editor’s piece this morning.

    “JULIA Gillard’s failure to get former NSW premier Bob Carr as her foreign minister is a tragedy for her government and for Australia.”

    My point then, and now, is that senior Australian political journalists got an important story wrong, very wrong. Not one of them used a qualifier like ‘possibly, apparently’ in their pieces. They represented opinion as fact. And they all did so with a barely concealed contempt for the Prime Minister of Australia. I defend their right to say such things, but reserve my right to call them mercilessly when their opinions expressed as facts are spectacularly wrong.

    BB – spot on.

  37. victoria:

    Yes, I saw that. We know they’re divided on so many issues, but Labor’s woes have forced attention onto the govt rather than the opps.

    The leadership ballot and bedding down the frontbench should act as a circuit breaker for the PM, and now they can train their guns on Abbott.

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