Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition

Last weekend’s Morgan face-to-face survey echoed other polls conducted at the time in showing little change on earlier polling despite Labor’s leadership turmoil, though as always it failed to echo other polls in having Labor’s primary vote several points higher. In this case Labor’s primary vote was up half a point on the previous week to 37.5 per cent, with the Coalition also up a point to 42.5 per cent and the Greens down 3.5 per cent from an anomalous 14.5 per cent last time. As usual with Morgan (though not Nielsen), there was a substantial difference between the two-party preferred results as derived by respondent allocation (52-48 to the Coalition) and using preference flows from the previous election (50-50).

NOTE: Due to server upgrades which will hopefully put an end to Crikey’s notorious technical gremlins, comments will be closed through the entirety of Sunday morning (i.e. about midnight to about noon).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,750 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 34 of 55
1 … 33 34 35 … 55

  1. Hopefully, this weeks “events” will make the Media pack a little less ready to try and spin trivial matters quite so hard. Maybe be a bit more skeptical of their current “sources”,a bit less eager to jump on the nearest bandwagon, and put a bit more thought into whether or not what they are writing is actually anything of significance in the real world.

    For the Opposition, I hope they would be a little less ready to look to the OO for their daily talking points?

    Yeah, the OOpo are so bereft of initiative and anything approaching direction that’s probably a vain hope.

  2. william

    955 of ur posters arent paid or earn from posting here

    we do so cos we are genuinely concerned about, among other things

    fredoom of the press

    objective reporting

    and above all

    A FAIR GO

    simple wants, dont u think?

  6. [the childlike mentality of many here that the world consists of heroes and villains,]

    The childlike mentalities here include at least 2 surgeons and 2 or 3 practising or retired lawyers, all of whom have spent years in their respective professions.

    Respect you as I do, I’d still hazard a guess that they’ve seen a bit more of the world than you have William.

    You you accuse us of having a ‘heroes v villains’ mentality. I call it values mentality. I and the others support the political party that advances the values we believe in. And for the vast majority here, that would be the ALP or the Greens.

    And we’re just a little bit annoyed at the unadulterated shite that the MSM has been feeding us all these months and the crud they continue to pass of as ‘informed opinion’ (opinion it might be, but as the last week has clearly demonstrated, informed it certainly is not).

    It’s one of the reasons we congregate here.

  7. William Bowe,

    [ It so happens that I haven’t even read the bloody thing. ]

    You should have at least taken the time to read the first paragraph if you wished to comment on it! 😉

  9. Smithe, did I say that everyone here had a childlike mentality, or even that most people here did? No, I did not. I was referring specifically to the person who called me a dickhead, the other person who said I could only possibly have said what I said if I were related to Greg Sheridan, and Fulvio Sammut, not because they had grasped my actual point, but because they dimly perceived that I had Defended a Bad Guy.

  13. I will have to chase down the presser where JG presented Bob Carr to the press pack. What a moment I missed.

  20. I barrack for Gillard, I don’t pretend otherwise, and I think Gillard will win the next election and that makes me a Pollyanna and all that. But I can’t remember making up crap about Abbott… the stuff that comes out of his mouth is good enough for me.

    Gratten clearly barracks against Gillard to the point where it seems personal, and to the cost of her professionalism. Let’s face it, there wasn’t a full article in this issue unless you made up crap.

    I don’t care if it’s my childlike mentality… I enjoy every egg on every journo who got sucked into losing some of their professional gloss on what was a complete beat-up even if they had been 100% correct…

    Which they weren’t…

  21. Tobe –

    I enjoy every egg on every journo who got sucked into losing some of their professional gloss on what was a complete beat-up even if they had been 100% correct…

    Which they weren’t…

    Well said.

    This affair is what President Obama might call a “teachable moment”. There was nothing about this whole affair that warranted being a story.

    Instead of all this weighty speculation and rumour mongering, the press should have just waited a few days for the actual announcement before analyzing the reshuffle/Senate appointment.

    Instead of seizing on a few scraps of information to concoct weighty strident analysis, the press should have reported what they knew in a low key non-sensationalized way. (Headlines of “Mutiny” were seriously overegging the pudding, even if what they thought was true was in fact true … which it wasn’t).

    Instead of getting into a lather over the PM rejecting their fantasy construction, they should have taken it on the chin and checked their facts; instead they went into overdrive.

    And, in the end, even if they were right about all the details, which they weren’t, there was no story.

  22. On another note – I was pleased to see Julia Gillard single out small business for attention in the cabinet reshuffle announcement.

    I think achieving some real reform for small business is a great move to potentially capture some of the soft LNP vote at the moment.

    There are lots of small businesses, and many people who interact with small businesses regularly. I doubt that small business people in general are particularly enamoured of the LNP focus on the big end of town at the moment.

    If the government can get some runs on the board that improve the real day-to-day environment for small business I think they can win over some of that important middle ground.

    Plus, anything that helps small business take it up to our oligopolies or the multinationals is a good thing in my book.

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers and congratulations to the Graveyard Shift for a few hundred very readable posts.
    The OO has to find some negative angle.
    [JULIA Gillard has gambled her leadership on the appointment of former NSW premier Bob Carr as foreign minister, staring down the ambitions of Defence Minister Stephen Smith.]
    And they poop themselves over this.
    [PRINT and online news will come under direct federal government oversight for the first time under proposals issued yesterday to create a statutory regulator with the power to prosecute media companies in the courts.

    The historic change to media law would break with tradition by using government funds to replace an industry council that acts on complaints, in a move fiercely opposed by companies as a threat to the freedom of the press.

    The proposals, issued yesterday by Communications Minister Stephen Conroy, also seek to widen the scope of federal oversight to cover print, online, radio and TV within a single regulator for the first time.]
    Grattan just won’t let go.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pms-trump-card-defies-critics-as-carr-revs-up-20120302-1u8l7.html
    Peter Hartcher writes a good piece on Bob Carr.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/former-premier-will-be-useful-ally-in-two-fronts-20120302-1u8bk.html
    A rather unkind cartoon from Alan Moir.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    This is a good article from the AFR on Wayne Swan.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/swan_shows_he_made_of_sterner_stuff_xd0LA0ol5M88hiJg6HMnHP

  24. Iunderstand that any blog that has more than 100k comments per year will come under the supervision of the new regulator. I don’t know the mechanism or effect.

  27. @bobjcarr , a man of history & knowledge and that voice, ah that voice. TQ to the PM @JuliaGillard for the courage #auspol

  29. [the childlike mentality of many here that the world consists of heroes and villains,

    The childlike mentalities here include at least 2 surgeons and 2 or 3 practising or retired lawyers, all of whom have spent years in their respective professions.]

    i am not a long term PhD student.

    I run a global empire called Finns & Boerwar Fuskushima Inc in fantasy as well as in real life.

    We started a blog when Bilbo was still in his nappy and fought the #MSM.

    i know nothing.

  30. hmmm reading the graveyard shift posts, methinks Bilbo is trying very hard now to be one of the #MSMhacks.

    Maybe not getting acceptance as yet. Must try harder.

  31. [It so happens that I haven’t even read the bloody thing.]

    oh dear, that really says it all for Bilbo and the rest of #MSMhacks.

    The story started on Monday and by Tuesday PM Gillard was condemned all round and by Friday it was a triumph.

    Yes Bilbo was right, they havent read the whole thing.

  32. Bob Carr sacrificed his own FA political ambition to re-build the shattered NSW State ALP to govt. He deserves the FM gig #auspol

  33. One thing @bobjcarr will not do, lecture a great power like China in Mandarin in Beijing. he knows too much to argue or to judge #auspol

  34. Former NSW Premier Bob Carr will bring “the NSW disease” to Canberra, LOTO Tony Abbott says”. – yeah like crushing Tories in 3 elections

  37. As usual, #MSMhacks like Paul Kelly still cant accept gracefully. It was only a farce because the #MSMhacks love to turn everything into a farce, even Santa at Xmas time:

    [IN a surprise – almost comic – moment, Julia Gillard has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, securing Bob Carr as foreign minister after her leadership victory over Kevin Rudd.

    It has been a week of high farce in Labor politics. Carr’s appearance yesterday by the Prime Minister’s side, three days after this exact event was abandoned, was the final stage in a farce redeemed only because of its satisfactory ending.

    Gillard’s roller-coaster week had three dimensions: the euphoria of defeating Rudd 71-31; the embarrassment of seeing her aspiration to appoint Carr collapse, with humiliating consequences for her authority; and the final reshuffle that contains her personal imprimatur and the selection of Carr as foreign minister.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/julia-gillards-great-escape/story-e6frgd0x-1226287783547

  39. I invite the Twittertariats to compare the knowledge & intellect of Bob Carr to Julie Bishop & Tony Abbott #auspol

  40. Good morning, Bludgers. G’day Dawn Patrollers.

    To pair the Finns’ BISONs we should have a Beautiful Set of Quotations,

    PM Gillard’s QT replies to Tony Abbott (29/O2/2012)

    I know the Leader of the Opposition has an unhealthy kind of obsession with the so-called faceless men in the Labor Party. What he really should be obsessed about is the useless men sitting behind him.

    *To the Leader of the Opposition I say: do not believe everything you read.

    These contributions from The Carr coup

    [A reverse wedgie on the press gallery was how one senior reporter described it at yesterday’s media conference. And it was.]

    and today’s

    Most telling of all, her unqualified repudiation of the Wednesday splash in The Australian headed ”Mutiny kills PM’s Bob Carr plan” was depicted by Liberal deputy leader Julie Bishop, and many others besides, as evidence of Gillard having only a passing acquaintance with the truth. ”She is still silly and slippery, slimy and shifty,” Bishop told reporters on Thursday.

    Now Gillard is vindicated and Bishop looks silly.

    Note: Sorry, I can’t locate to reference accurately the “mopping the floor” with Julie Bishop one

  41. [Former NSW Premier Bob Carr will bring “the NSW disease” to Canberra, LOTO Tony Abbott says”. – yeah like crushing Tories in 3 elections]

    😀 😀 Finns!! Yeah!! 😀 😀

  45. I commented last night that the same media morons would turn on the govt and listening to the ABC this morning it was all ‘while some applaud the new carr’ industry and the opposition condemn … yawn … Govt a shambles … doesn’t matter what actually happens the media does it as a govt in shambles story.

  47. Yesterday the HoR committee looking at Australia’s biodiversity in the face of climate change heard public submissions.

    I haven’t seen or heard any reportage of this, which is interesting given the fuss and carry-on given to the carbon pricing legislation.

    If anyone sees any reports, can you please link it here.

  48. I’m commenting a bit late, but I was thrilled by Alberici’s treatment of Pyne on Lateline last night. The acid “Let’s look at the facts” in the face of his repetitive rants was not only fantastic to hear, but I realised how seldom we hear that from a journo.
    I wondered if in the absence of someone from Labor, she had “permission” from her producer to go the biff.

  50. Finnigans at 1683 One thing @bobjcarr will not do, lecture a great power like China in Mandarin in Beijing. he knows too much to argue or to judge .

    I am a sucker for a Dylan quote so allow me to present this relevant verse about journalist/media constructions this week.

    Statues made of matchsticks
    Crumble into one another
    My love winks,
    She does not bother,
    She knows too much to argue or to judge.

    http://www.bobdylan.com/songs/love-minus-zerono-limit

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 34 of 55
1 … 33 34 35 … 55