Gillard 71, Rudd 31

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.

UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.

UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,059 comments on “Gillard 71, Rudd 31”

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  1. [No doubt? No doubt at all? Not even the tiniest bit of doubt in Maley’s cracked mind?]

    Only of the snarky kind.

  2. Foreign Affairs jobs are heavily vetted. I don’t believe Gillard would have gone anywhere near offering Carr the job before that.

    Both deny she offered him FA.

    Meh.

  3. [Foreign Affairs jobs are heavily vetted. I don’t believe Gillard would have gone anywhere near offering Carr the job before that.

    Both deny she offered him FA.

    Meh.]

    Mesma set up a nice one today: whoever gets FA, it’s because they’ve strong-armed Gillard. Apparently there is no other possibility, except that she’s PM with the largets majority of any leadership challenge and can make up her own mind, but nah, couldn’t be that. A third of the caucus hate her!

    Neat, and no way out (in Mesma’s fevered imagination… and wasn’t she fevered today?).

  4. Dio

    You raise a very interesting question
    What role DOES security have in vetting foreign affairs (and Defence) appointments.

    Imagine a situation where there was a Greens government – could someone suspected of being pro Palestinian be made Foreign Minister? or if there were say tensions with another country eg Malaysia, China, could a person who had formerly been a citizen of that country become Foreign Minister (or Minister for Defence)? Would someone with a strongly anti US position be allowed to be in either role???

    Just curious

  5. Bloggers here may not like Mr Pyne, but the Greens don’t seem to mind him. They split their preferences between Pyne and the ALP candidate, Left-aligned university law professor Rick Sarre, in Sturt at the last election.

    Mind boggling.

  6. Just a quick one – have received an email from head office that members will be able to vote in Labor Community pre seclections for local Councils soon. That’s good news.

  7. TT, it might just be that a good number of Libs protested Abbott’s leadership by lodging their first preference with the Greens candidate, but ultimately could not allow their vote to go to the ALP.

  8. http://www.news.com.au/national/law-allows-women-to-see-pharmacist-for-birth-control-pill-supplies/story-e6frfkw9-1226286363622

    [Law allows women to see pharmacist for birth control pill supplies
    By Malcolm Farr, National Political Editor
    From: news.com.au
    March 01, 2012 4:24PM

    Law allows women to get pill resupply from pharmacist
    Means “patients will not have to risk missing medication”
    Will be conditions to the sale of the non-prescription drugs

    A NEW law will come to the rescue of women who have run out of birth control pills when they are a long way from their doctor but feeling close to the man in their life.
    Women caught short will be able to get resupplied by a pharmacist without needing a doctor’s prescription under legislation passed by the Senate today.

    The same will go for people who need anti-cholesterol drugs to keep going, but have run out of stocks, according to the National Health (Fifth Community Pharmacy Agreement) Bill.]
    more in the article

  9. Diogs,

    Good point.

    There seems to be a push against Smith from ‘stakeholders’ if you follow some of the comments by Wurth this morning in the Oz. Could be the real story behind the Oz anti Carr campaign.

  10. BH @ 3859
    [Just a quick one – have received an email from head office that members will be able to vote in Labor Community pre seclections for local Councils soon. ]

    No, not as fast as that. Only City of Sydney Council election at this stage.

    A good article in the SMH by Meridith Burgmann (a friend of mine from Union Days) on how it could be a good step for the NSW ALP.

  11. TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 ‏ @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
    Smithy (the pussycat) is the new ruthless faceless man who heavied PM Gillard? Gimme a break #auspol

  12. [A casual perusal of Bob Ellis blog http://www.ellistabletalk.com shows that he thought Bob Carr had been offered the NSW Senate vacancy and had been offered Foreign Affairs. Ellis takes pains to establish his closeness to Carr and the centre of Labor power broking]

    Billie, i must be blind, the only thing i can see is a missing wedding ring 😉

  13. TT

    Pyne is or was of the moderate persuasion and is a little greener than most libs. I imagine you will find him VERY progressive on issues such as Gay rights. Not all that surprising that Greens quite like him.

    Watching him on QT yesterday – he clearly has had voice training- much less whiny.

    Must be planning a challenge:)

  14. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-01/gillard-admits-speaking-to-bob-carr-over-vacancies/3862972

    [Prime Minister Julia Gillard has, for the first time, publicly confirmed that she did speak to Bob Carr earlier this week as part of her search for a new senator and foreign minister.

    Ms Gillard is fighting off claims that a rebellion by key frontbenchers forced her to drop plans to parachute the former NSW premier into the plum job.

    Mr Carr released a statement yesterday confirming that “party officers had talked to him about the possibility of him filling the NSW Senate vacancy and be able to be considered for the office of foreign minister”.

    But he added that “Prime Minister Gillard had definitely not made any offer about the foreign affairs ministry nor had any one on her behalf”.]

  15. the Finnigans

    My OH has never worn a wedding ring. I dont wear mine either. I wear a newish ring given by my OH a few years back, but it isn’t my wedding ring

  16. Hold everything!

    Ch7 News reckon the opps are making progress with their heavy probing. Apparently they got the PM to admit she’d spoken to Bob Carr on the phone, “…in contrast to what she’d said yesterday.” Time to call in Hercule Brandis SC, surely?

    What she said earlier, AFIK, was WTTE “Don’t believe everything you read in the papers.” and “That story is completely untrue.” She didn’t say anything about talking or not talking to Carr in those answers.

    She didn’t say anything about the conversation just now, as far as I know. Very likely it could have been,

    “Look Bob, sorry about all the fuss. We can’t just parachute you into FA. If you want to be a Senator, fine, that’s NSW’s call, anyway.”

  17. Not a good week for Clive. All his toys are failing to amuse him.
    [The Hyatt Regency Coolum Golf Resort on Queensland’s Sunshine Coast has been placed into voluntary administration.

    The resort’s owner, billionaire Clive Palmer, last week terminated Hyatt’s management contract and the case has gone to the Supreme Court in Brisbane.

    Mr Palmer, who bought the property last year, says Hyatt failed to manage it properly.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-01/coolum-resort-placed-in-administration/3862660

  18. even bob ellis knew about the carr offer – this is more than a leak, it is a warragamba overflow. i wish the govt and most pb’s would stop blaming the msm for bad publicity -the government is mainly responsible for its own publicity (carr would know that). carr is the grand-daddy of the labor malaise. nsw will suffer for years for his failure to provide infrastructure, and his style of government. he is not only part of the problem, he is the problem – somehow he escape scrutiny, but thank goodness we are spared his pontificating comments at a federal level. of course arbib would recommend him.
    julia? a bit power drunk, and punch drunk. the steely fighter in a fight of her own creation, spun out by forces she does not acknowledge or understand. thank good plan b is in the chamber – the sin bin will help chasten KR. o for this purgatory to end.

  19. [o, not as fast as that. Only City of Sydney Council election at this stage.]

    Brian – Yes, I did get excited. Just reread it and see it’s a trial Are the SCC elections held at the same time as the others in the State. We’re due for them in September I think.

    Anyway good first step and I hope it’s successful.

  20. GD,

    Tomorrow the Cabinet re shuffle is announced.

    Heavy probing will be revealed as pushing shit up hill.

    The caravan will have moved on.

  21. [Ellis takes pains to establish his closeness to Carr and the centre of Labor power broking]

    Not any more, billie, from what I heard.

  22. HI folks. I was really impressed at the opps in today’s QT NOT!

    I am seriously thinking of sending a bill for my wasted taxes.

  23. [She didn’t say anything about the conversation just now, as far as I know. Very likely it could have been,

    “Look Bob, sorry about all the fuss. We can’t just parachute you into FA. If you want to be a Senator, fine, that’s NSW’s call, anyway.”]

    GD – wouldn’t that have been the line to take in responding to the Oppn and the MSM.? That’s how Howard used to do and they all just shut up.

  24. jenauthor

    The coalition have shown they really have nothing to offer the Aust public. All they are good at doing is smearing the PM. As far as i can tell, Abbott is on a mission of mutually assured destruction

  25. Put Kevin back as FM, that will stuff them all UP!.

    It certainly would, and at this point might not be a bad idea.

    It would obviously be magnanimous and offset dumping Carr/McClelland from a Rudd-support point of view.

    If Stephen Smith is staying in defence to finish the job he started, then there is a question mark over who would actually be a good choice for FM.

    It would show a lot of confidence on Julia Gillard’s part.

    Meh, I dunno.

  26. Followed up the Ellis blog writings. All over the place -wouldn’t place too much on reliability. Seems to have badly fallen off Rudd – thought he was once a fan. Still thinks Beazley is a hero and Crean a troublemaker.

    Seems to think there was something in this Carr thing and that Smith vetoed it, seemingly on the grounds that Condi Rice fancied him.

    Can’t make much sense of it, except that Ellis may not be such an insider as he believes.

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