Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reportedly reports that Julia Gillard’s winning margin over Kevin Rudd in this morning’s Labor leadership vote has been 73-29, coming in at the higher end of market expectations.
UPDATE: The official announcement has actually been that the margin was 71-31. Headline amended. Apologies that comments are currently off, which has been necessary to manage Crikey’s notoriously shaky bandwidth.
UPDATE 2: Ongoing apologies for the offness of the comments. Essential Research has come in at 56-44, up from 55-45 last week and 54-46 the week before. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 32 per cent and the Coalition’s is up one to 49 per cent, with the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Further questions have 39 per cent blaming Julia Gillard for Labor’s problems against 18 per cent for Kevin Rudd, 23 per cent for others in the party and 10 per cent for the media. Reactions to the Gonski report are typically social democratic, with 61 per cent preferring more education funding to a return to a budget surplus and 68 per cent supporting the report’s recommendations as described against 13 per cent opposed.
[Mark Arbib
@SenMarkArbib
. @PatsKarvelas @samanthamaiden @jamesmassola @AndrewBGreene Top find MRiley. Now u know reason for resigning, I’m on way back to Summer Bay]
confessions
Is this it?
[samanthamaiden
@samanthamaiden
@OakeyMP @Boganville_ but hang on, you are RT someone whining your speech didn’t get press coverage – a fib. Why would you do that ?]
I’m going to stick my neck out and predict that the carbon tax will be the theme of the first question.
Oh, by the way, today’s MPI:
Mr Hunt (Flinders)
“The urgent need for the Government to abandon the carbon tax.”
I can’t find anything in the online OO about O and W speeches yesterday. I can however learn that Arbib once appeared in Home and Away.
triton
How borimgment
DavidWH @ # 3693
“Gary unless I am missing something there was an offer made to Carr so when the PM said the story was completely untrue that was not strictly correct. PM’s generally avoid making absolute statements.”?
The PM is the only person who can make such an offer. She has said and confirmed by Carr that she did not make such an offer. So strictly she can make such a statement as any other “offer” is in fact not an offer
Of cause if she had equivocated she would be pilloried from pillow to post.
She can’t win whatever she does.
All our Foreign Minister needs to do on the world scene is hold up a sign saying”Ditto” to whatever new act of agression the US is proposing…and then send some young Aussies to die for the US’s cause…easy !
The tricky decision is what to do about Mr Bowen.
He has done the hardest yards. He has not been succesful but he has plenty of talent. He is disaffected.
What to do?
Boerwar
Keep Bowen were he is?
oops where
If Arbib did go back to Summer Bay, he could see, across Pittwater, Currawong which was bought by the NSW Government in doubtful circumstances just before the 2011 state election.
Yes, victoria that’s it.
Surely the biggest question for QT today is whether the Floor Mop will chance another prime ministerial bollocking.
Grattan (I apply the same manners to her that she does to the PM) today defended her fellow journalists on the basis that what they wrote was “partly” true. That is how far the media has descended now – writing things that are “partly” true makes it okay if the other elements are not.
That said the PM should be very clear today on what happened when. If she does not the story continues to drag on.
This has probably already been discussed.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/mtr-teeters-as-cash-dries-up-20120301-1u4fw.html
I am proud to be Victorian – can we, (and possibly SA, Tassie and the ACT) secede when the rest of the states vote Abbott in please? The smarter and nicer people (check ABS stats for levels of education and charity work/ donations to back up my claims for Victorians anyway) can leave the dumb and selfish bogan states to reap as they vote, and set up a nice social democracy in the south. Refugees from the north will be allowed if you let us send you Sam Newman and Andrew Bolt (& we’ll throw in Peter Costello, Kroger, Fryenberg and Mirrabella for free).
We could also chip in a dollard each sustainable future if we could palm off Jeff Kennett to NSW where he rightly belongs
sustainable future
Dont forget to include Kelly O’Dwyer
dollard = dollar but you get my drift
triton,
Koala stamp for you.
[Refugees from the north will be allowed]
Everyone in Victoria under the age of 30 is from Queensland anyway. And everyone in Queensland over the age of 80 is from Victoria.
There’s been an unfair cultural convection flow going on for years.
Don Argus? Not much of a start there, quoting a businessman who doesn’t like carbon pricing.
I’m sure others have noticed that in Slipper’s new “answer the question and nothing but the question” world, the LOTO is framing his snarly attacks within almost unanswerable questions.
[Koala stamp for you.]
Thanks very much, Ducky. Of course it was pure brilliance on my part; I got no clue at all from the subject of the MPI and the frequent practice of starting QT on that subject.
I don’t watch question time but I’ve noticed that both the Labor people here and the very Lib Bolt are both very complimentary about Slipper as Speaker. He must be doing something very well to keep both sides happy.
Bowen should be moved as he clearly doesn’t have a plan B
The govt should be getting on with formulating a new asylum seeker policy that eliminates people smuggling/queue jumping
[The govt should be getting on with formulating a new asylum seeker policy that eliminates people smuggling/queue jumping]
There is so a plan already. It’s called, in some quarters, The Malaysian Solution.
Abbott rejects that plan as it might be a solution to the problems you have identified.
Dio I listened to a replay of yesterday’s QT and Slipper seemed to be being fair to both sides. Personally I think a MP should receive a warning before being asked to leave however at least everyone knows the rules and they are being evenly applied.
Of there were no leaks, there would have been no Carr story.
Ah right, I get the strategy now. Quote as many people as possible who have complained about carbon pricing, Make dubious claims, get the questions and not the answers reported on: “The Opposition grilled the Government over costs blowouts due to the Carbon Tax etc etc”
Give it about 6-8 hours and we’ll have concern trolls calling that a failure of Gillard’s in not explaining/anticipating/preventing/denying emphatically or early enough. It doesn’t matter if she did or didn’t, it’s her fault that these false claims are out there, and they will continue if she blah blah blah…
And off we go again – Hockey with a bit of rabble-rousing.
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
As Kevin Rudd used the #MSMhacks to destabilize PM Gillard. Abbott simply just relies on #MSMhacks to do the same #qt #auspol
[there would have been no Carr story.]
Diog, you crashed your carr!!!!!!!!!!!
[The govt should be getting on with formulating a new asylum seeker policy that eliminates people smuggling/queue jumping]
Oh, is that all it has to do, Rex? I’m sure a competent new minister can whip up a good plan for that soon enough.
Yvette d’Ath always reminds me of a famous French cartoon character called
becassine.
Tom Hawkins,
The Malaysian Solution would’ve worked – but would’ve/could’ve doesn’t get the job done – time to move on
Tom Hawkins – Kennett counts as a ‘wet’ nowadays, but would happily send him north if he took Stockdale and David Davis with him. Stockdale was the iron fist behind the Kennett court jester hand-puppet. Kennet is just a very arrogant, dumb born-to-rule type who is so dumb that he doesn’t realise how dumb he is ( like Sam Newman). Kennet has ‘Liberal Loser’ tattooed across his forehead, so we could keep him as a reminder that Victorians don’t like economic rationalists.
Victoria – I almost said O’Dwyer, but I’d keep her for comedy value – she obviously doesn’t believe the crap she spouts, but as part of the debating team will spout it anyway (a bit like Greg C Hunt). She’s hilarious to watch, is useless/harmless, and make people hate Libs – so I vote we keep her. The ones I want to swap are dangerous – I don’t think she is because once all her mentors left she’d have no ideas of her own (not that that wills top her talking with that Aliens mouth of hers).
Yvette is also known as the Petrie dish.
DavidWH
[Personally I think a MP should receive a warning before being asked to leave]
So they need a fresh warning each day to know they shouldn’t be disruptive?
sustainable future
You make a reasonable argument. 🙂
[The Malaysian Solution would’ve worked – but would’ve/could’ve doesn’t get the job done – time to move on]
You are right on both accounts Rex; the MS would have worked and it is time to look for another plan.
Do you have any suggestions?
Finns
That kangaroo tried to kill me.
triton.
sitting on ones hands sulking is not the answer
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/1600/
[AUSTRALIAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED AT 113.5
(UP 0.1PTS IN A WEEK)
Article No. 1600 – This weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,166 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend, February 25/26, 2012.: March 01, 2012
Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged at 113.5pts (up 0.1pts in a week), according to the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted last weekend (February 25/26, 2012). Consumer Confidence is now 0.5 points lower than a year ago, February 26/27, 2011 (114.0).
Consumer Confidence has barely moved with declining worry about Australia’s economy over the next five years offset by falling numbers of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.
…………
Gary Morgan says:
“Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged at 113.5 (up 0.1pts) on the weekend before the leadership showdown between Prime Minister Julia Gillard and former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Incumbent Prime Minister Gillard easily won the ballot 71-31.
“The uncertainty created by the leadership speculation may have contributed to the mixed results for this week’s Consumer Confidence. In 3/5 categories those answering ‘can’t say’ was at its highest for 2012 — including both questions relating to personal financial situations.
“While fewer Australians thought they were ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (27%, down 4%), Australians were less worried about the Australian economy in the future with 20% (down 5%) expecting ‘bad times’ for the next five years and 33% (down 1%) expecting ‘bad times’ over the next 12 months. What will concern the Australian retail industry is the rising number of Australians saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items (19%, up 1%) — now at its highest for the year so far.”]
more in the link
Tom Hawkins,
Of course not that’s the govt challenge
Dio we are all limited by bounded rationality. Basically on the Carr issue we all have to consider the issue without all the information so our conclusions are likely to be less than optimal. Who’s cinclusions are more rational than all the others is pretty well impossible to know unless we have more information than we now have.
Personally I believe the rational conclusion lies somewhere between the Aussie article and the PM’s “the story was completely incorrect” but the fact is I don’t really know and doubt few if any PB’ers do either.
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans Reply Delete Favorite · Open
So Gerry wants us to spend to save him. He’s the laziest businessman, improve values, services in his shops we’ll spend – http://t.co/PaaqF2Om
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4750/
[L-NP (52%) LEAD OVER ALP (48%) UNCHANGED
BEFORE GILLARD CRUSHES RUDD IN ALP LEADERSHIP SPILL
Finding No. 4750 – This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over last weekend, February 25/26, 2012 with an Australia-wide cross-section of Australians aged 14+ including 981 electors, of all electors surveyed, 3.5% did not name a party.: March 01, 2012]
I await others dissecting it re preferences (nominated vs past elections), followed by foolish tweets on a poll using a format no one takes too seriously anyway.
Slipper was pretty lenient on Macklin then.
Triton 3787 yes. It a place for robust exchanges and one warning seems about right or one general warning when warranted.
poor tones
i think he has a crush on bob carr
🙁
[That kangaroo tried to kill me.]
just for the killer dolphin 👿