I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.
UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).
What the hell is a FLF gus?
Mod Lib,
The Government could win with a swing against. It all depends where the votes fall. Swings are rarely uniform across the board.
History shows that the voters are reluctant to throw out Governments of any persuasion. Incumbancy does seem to matter historicaly.
Think Rudd will get about 32 votes, so put me down for that if there’s spots available please.
GG
[Have a look at Catsaras analysis this morning. He also articulated that Government’s can win elections with 49% of the vote. Every time a Party has won with 49% it has been the Governing Party (He said it was either 7 or 12 times).]
it was the last 12 times. One reason incumbent governments have such an advantage is that if they have good incumbent members, they can work their electorate for 3 years – not the few months of the challengers. Plus the incumbents have buckets of govt cash (metaphorically speaking) to grease the wheels
31 please if not too late Poroti.
Fantastic to see Aristotle/ Andrew get the Insiders gig. After a long boycott, I may watch again
I guessed 35 for Rudd.
henry
Fat
Little
Farq
coined many many many moons ago
[The Government could win with a swing against. It all depends where the votes fall. Swings are rarely uniform across the board.]
Well thank you very much for stating the bleeding obvious.
I note you are no longer crapping on about the non-existent trend and are just using this swing debate as interference.
Wow, have a couple of drinks and a lie down for a while, and come back to a 53/47 Newspoll??
So the Rudd backers will claim that its on the back of Rudds comeback, The Gillard backers will claim its on the back of the ALP finally sorting its leadership issues.
While i like the trend, i’ll wait and see some polling after things settle a bit from the EVENT of tomorrow. Although, its not much of an EVENT when most of the players have declared their vote and the result is pretty clear??
LOL. The one who will really hate this polling is dah :monkey: !! Start measuring for a back-benchers office Tones and be ahead of the game.
TALCUM IS OUT AND TWEETING
#FIBSPILL
Burgey
[Think Rudd will get about 32 votes, so put me down for that if there’s spots available please.]
You be entry 90…or 91
1 brazillion (unconfirmed) Greentard
187 (unconfirmed) TP
44 Son of Zoomster
43 WeWantPaul
42 Scorpio
41 Centaur009 , Mr Squiggle
40 lefty e
39 Mod Lib
38 Darn, Gary Sparrow
37 Dyno , Luckydave
36 shellbell
35 BH , stanny
34 p m z , ltep
33 Andrew , BH , dave , ShowsOn
32 Super,vitalise, DavidWH ,madcyril, Tom Hawkins, slackboy72 ,Burgey
31 Centre, Boerwar, mari , bluegreen
30 BK, mexicanbeemer
29 Think Big ,outside left ,Gary, fiz
28 muttleymcgee, zoidlord ,robot ,Rossmore , HaveAchat, Harry “Snapper” Organs, Rod Hagen
27 Tricot, confessions, Bushfire Bill ,Diogenese ,Boinzo , rosemour
26 Poroti ,womble
25 It’s Time ,Dan Gulberry , Aguirre , Mick Collins , Paul_J , citizen , The Finnigans
24 AJ Canberra ,TLBD ,Lord Barry Bonkton , jeffmu ,Michael Cusack
23 Imacca,smithe ,Dr Fumbles McStupid , kevjohnno, briefly
22 Danny Lewis ,political animal
21 fredn ,Puff, the Magic Dragon ,Gorgeous Dunny
20 Jaeger, janice2 , sohar
19 Last name red wombat
18 Guface , oyster
17 kezza2, Scringler ,cog, cybercynicagain
10 Ctar , rummel
3 canasta76
A very brave -13 deflationite
– 1 brazillion (Team Rudd default) Oakeshott Country ,jenauthor , JohD
No reason my interpretation should be deemed definitive, Henry. I can see as clearly as anyone else that the trendline looks awfully straight just at the moment, which seems like pretty bad news for Labor given where it’s stuck exactly. I’ve never entirely let go of the idea that given clear air and a smooth implementation of carbon pricing, Gillard might be able to bash it back down again. I wouldn’t put my money on it though.
[She would kill for Nelson’s approval ratings.
Nelson’s started in the 60s and ended up in the 30s.]
Yes but an OL doesn’t have to do anything except criticise. Nelsons’s ratings ended up looking like death which they proved to be.
JG is doing things and very hard things at that. The rewards will start to flow in the next 6 months.
Diogenes@345
I’m sorry mate I don’t quite get what your getting at…if you can get my drift?
poroti
just a teensy litlle request
its gusface, not guface
ta
🙂
Poroti – put me down
31 rudd, 71 Gillard
[Showsy,
Read the discussion that is occurring and realise you just don’t cut it intellectually.]
Ha! you sure come across as a smug jerk with a moral superiority complex.
Not exactly Christian of you.
[The precedents are all for Labor winning Government with 49%. If you can’t comprehend, it’s better you stop posting. Unfortunately, you are already marked as a fool. PB is not a sheltered workshop for dickheads like you.]
What would Jesus do G.G.? Your reversion to abuse demonstrates that you are really just a massive hypocrite with an incurable delusion of grandeur.
[Toorak Toff
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 10:26 pm | Permalink
Yes, Julia is tough. Imagine climbing out of bed every day to walk into a wall of negativity – and still come out on top. That takes a special type of person. ]
Fully agree, TT. Hard for even us tragics to see daylight with this type of look at the polls, look at the polls hammering every day. Surely the Rudd disintegration should warn us off that approach. Julia expressed it best when she said, “This is about running the country, not Celebrity Big Brother.”
Alas, we’d hardly know. Maybe populism and the demagogue approach works. It was what annoyed Plato about democracy all those years ago. That situation didn’t bother Ben Chifley and I don’t think it worries JG.
On that classical reference if we get to pick a pseph of choice, I’m sticking with Aristotle.
[Shows On,
I’ve moved on having sucessfully made my point. Do try to keep up with the adult debate you cretin.]
Oh so sorry to annoy you. I’m sorry that you don’t like it when someone shows you how you are wrong with actual evidence, even after you have claimed to be some statistics wiz.
Do what Jesus would do and love your enemies.
A newly elected, female PM. Approval rating 25%
Margaret Thatcher December 1981
Remember comrades, this is no time to go wobbly.
Poroti
Kev will be a no show.
[417
Greensborough Growler
Shows On,
I’ve moved on having sucessfully made my point. Do try to keep up with the adult debate you cretin.]
I feel like Franco is still with us….. 🙂
Wow I come back and it’s PB with full of Personal Attacks from ShowsOn, @Thomas Paine being a Paine with his insecurability with a female PM, While @William is online, he ain’t doing anything about it.
William,
You should get out your old videos of Howard in 2001 and Keating in 1993 to convince you that polling numbers move dramatically and perceived winners and losers swap places quite easily.
anyone watch ABC news tonight?
Uhlmann interviewing McClelland (aka Mr Potato-head). He was eating humble pie, begging to keep his ministerial job. You might keep it, mate, but not in Cabinet.
Gillard 68
Rudd 34
[Do what Jesus would do and love your enemies.]
I always read that as Glove your enemies
🙂
Gu(s)face how about…and Henry.
1 brazillion (unconfirmed) Greentard
187 (unconfirmed) TP
44 Son of Zoomster
43 WeWantPaul
42 Scorpio
41 Centaur009 , Mr Squiggle
40 lefty e
39 Mod Lib
38 Darn, Gary Sparrow
37 Dyno , Luckydave
36 shellbell
35 BH , stanny ,ShowsOn
34 p m z , ltep
33 Andrew , BH , dave
32 Super,vitalise, DavidWH ,madcyril, Tom Hawkins, slackboy72 ,Burgey
31 Centre, Boerwar, mari , bluegreen,henry,sprocket
30 BK, mexicanbeemer
29 Think Big ,outside left ,Gary, fiz
28 muttleymcgee, zoidlord ,robot ,Rossmore , HaveAchat, Harry “Snapper” Organs, Rod Hagen
27 Tricot, confessions, Bushfire Bill ,Diogenese ,Boinzo , rosemour
26 Poroti ,womble
25 It’s Time ,Dan Gulberry , Aguirre , Mick Collins , Paul_J , citizen , The Finnigans
24 AJ Canberra ,TLBD ,Lord Barry Bonkton , jeffmu ,Michael Cusack
23 Imacca,smithe ,Dr Fumbles McStupid , kevjohnno, briefly
22 Danny Lewis ,political animal
21 fredn ,Puff, the Magic Dragon ,Gorgeous Dunny
20 Jaeger, janice2 , sohar
19 Last name red wombat
18 Gusface , oyster
17 kezza2, Scringler ,cog, cybercynicagain
10 Ctar , rummel
3 canasta76
A very brave -13 deflationite
– 1 brazillion (Team Rudd default) Oakeshott Country ,jenauthor , JohD
[Wow I come back and it’s PB with full of Personal Attacks from ShowsOn]
I’m only returning what is being dished at me.
According to today’s SUNDAY TELEGRAPH, Gillard will sack Kim Carr completely, and either demote or sack altogether McClelland.
Bowen will be kept in Immigration as his form of punishment for backing the wrong horse.
M. Ferguson won’t be touched, ditto for Albo.
Poroti,
Could you put me down as 35 votes for Rudd, please?
[You should get out your old videos of Howard in 2001 and Keating in 1993 to convince you that polling numbers move dramatically and perceived winners and losers swap places quite easily.]
This has nothing to do with whether or not their has been a trend back to Labor over the last few months.
Nice diversionary tactics.
The Opposition have a leadership problem….namely, there current leader is unfit to hold office, and their most popular figure is unacceptable to his party-room. Maybe the voice of liberal democracy will revive inside the Opposition, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
evan
silly billy
its
Red Haired Bitch 68
Jesus Incarnate 34
Gus,
Glass his enema?
the other figure on the Poll of Polls on Insiders was that the government has been in a worse position at 3 of the 7 elections and still won
3 of the last 7
I really hope everything is sorted out tomorrow one way or another, Labor can’t afford to do this again this term.
[I don’t see how it is a good poll for Labor with their primary on 35. They want a primary in the very high 30s to be confident of winning]
20 months – JG is playing the long game and isn’t throwing the policies out with the bath water as Rudd would do. Labor should stick with her until at least the last sitting week of 2012 unless something catastrophic happens before then.
I think JG will be team orientated enough to step down if she thinks it’s in the best interests of Labor’s 2013 prospects.
Maybe she will absorb more of the punches that her successor would otherwise receive.
Having said that I still think she’ll win against Abbott in 2013. Turnbull is a different proposition and I am less confident about her chances if he leads the opposition..
Mr bowe the reason MISS,gillard hisless this time may be because of her oppenant, talking about her, opp.to what u said, how was the questioon framed, was it liberals whho ticked what ever box ,. Who knows ithought u could tellus, . But u should also point out many pms have beebn here even howard, keating what did pk say wtte are not here to be liked they are here to govern ,
Why do u seem to see the negative , ??
Thanks William, so labor in spitting distance perhaps but JG will need some clear air for the next 6 months or so. Agree with that.
Shows On: Relax, the nasty man is going away, Julia will triumph, Abbott is finished – no worries at all!
I’m guessing Poll Bludger regulars will now start drumming up speculation about a Turnball challenge to Abbott. 🙂
Thomas Paine
[JG is doing things and very hard things at that. The rewards will start to flow in the next 6 months.]
She is reaping what she has sown already.
26% is a surprise on the high side after her statements this week.
She has staked her claim for leadership on the delivery of a carbon tax in 2011 after promising there will be no carbon tax in 2010.
Many of us are disgusted.
[How did DavidWH make a textless post?]
Did he post a ‘space’ as in space bar?
Kindly desist from trolling, Zoidlord. There are three comments by TP on this thread, and there is nothing remotely objectionable about any of them.
[It is an encouraging trend, and its interesting how the media keeps pushing the ALP IS DOOOMED narrative that they started last year, even with the primary vote slowly improving across a variety of polls.]
The media did the same thing in 2006 when, under Beazley, Labor was winning or drawing 4 out of 5 polls.
Despite this the standard line was that “Labor is struggling against bad polling…”.
I (naively) tried to point this out to the ABC and to one journalist in particular.
The ABC replied that their journalists were experienced etc., and that they would decide who was leading in the polls, not some ignorant member of the public, and the individual journalist just called me a “Labor loving moron”.
By August that year, Labor had not lost a poll in three months, then four months, then six, eight, 12… then (up until 2010) not one in nearly 4 years.
When they don’t want to see the truth of their own polls, they’ll always find one or two of the metrics to “prove” their point, or else they’ll just tell you to piss off and leave the crystal ball gazing to their “experts”.
Some one ask about andrew lee, well if u all cared to look frank has all the pictures of all those in each camp their seat margins ect,, its a very educational blogg. Just take a look
briefly,
There’s a little bit of Franco in us all.
However, he has earned his little holiday.
Ok as we move into the last 1800 seconds the Kevenge Sweepstake stands at
.
1 brazillion (unconfirmed) Greentard
187 (unconfirmed) TP
44 Son of Zoomster
43 WeWantPaul
42 Scorpio
41 Centaur009 , Mr Squiggle
40 lefty e
39 Mod Lib
38 Darn, Gary Sparrow
37 Dyno , Luckydave
36 shellbell
35 BH , stanny ,ShowsOn, Apple Blossom
34 p m z , ltep ,Thornleigh Labor Man
33 Andrew , BH , dave
32 Super,vitalise, DavidWH ,madcyril, Tom Hawkins, slackboy72 ,Burgey
31 Centre, Boerwar, mari , bluegreen,henry,sprocket
30 BK, mexicanbeemer
29 Think Big ,outside left ,Gary, fiz
28 muttleymcgee, zoidlord ,robot ,Rossmore , HaveAchat, Harry “Snapper” Organs, Rod Hagen
27 Tricot, confessions, Bushfire Bill ,Diogenese ,Boinzo , rosemour
26 Poroti ,womble
25 It’s Time ,Dan Gulberry , Aguirre , Mick Collins , Paul_J , citizen , The Finnigans
24 AJ Canberra ,TLBD ,Lord Barry Bonkton , jeffmu ,Michael Cusack
23 Imacca,smithe ,Dr Fumbles McStupid , kevjohnno, briefly
22 Danny Lewis ,political animal
21 fredn ,Puff, the Magic Dragon ,Gorgeous Dunny
20 Jaeger, janice2 , sohar
19 Last name red wombat
18 Gusface , oyster
17 kezza2, Scringler ,cog, cybercynicagain
10 Ctar , rummel
3 canasta76
A very brave -13 deflationite
– 1 brazillion (Team Rudd default) Oakeshott Country ,jenauthor , JohD ,Gaffhook