I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.
UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).
[I’m perversely hoping that Julia promotes her supporters and demotes or fires completely Ruddites in her cabinet reshuffle, because that would signal that she’s not a uniter at all, and it’d sow the seeds of her eventual political death.]
You’ve left yourself open evan. The converse of that argument is that if she doesn’t remove the Ruddites that would signal she is a uniter.
poroti,
My bite is much worse than my bark.
Hey Diog, you posted a pic of Albert Fish’s pelvis a while ago.
I couldn’t work it out – what was I supposed to see?
gus
What about 27 from an indie?
I can’t go in the black book for that, can I?
William, Gillard’s disapproval was up 2 points to 57 a fortnight ago, so 64 is a 7 point increase.
Perhaps William is going to be a wet blanket and not place his guess in.
Zoidlord Rudd won’t win tomorrow and the next 18 months may be a repeat of the last 18 months.
dio
6.5 stars have a dispensation
Wise words from Lachlan Harris – Swan and others have set a dangerous precedent:
[Leadership spills are always messy. Careers are destroyed. Friendships are broken. Loyalties are breached. That level of hostility has always been part of the game.
But in the past week, the federal Labor Party has introduced a new strategy into leadership challenges, a public, pre-emptive, on-the-record, neo-nuclear strategy. What is so different, and so radically dangerous, about this strategy is that it turns the always-risky process of leadership battles into a brutal zero-sum game.
The plan behind the extremely nasty attacks on Rudd’s character and capacity to govern is simple; to make Rudd damaged goods so no one in caucus can vote for him.
Labor voters who are Rudd supporters are outraged. Labor voters who are Rudd detractors probably believe this very public airing of grievances is well overdue.
But all Labor supporters, whether they love Rudd, or despise him, should be deeply concerned by this development because recent history shows us that once a new tactic is introduced into a leadership battle it is used over and over again]
Thanks, GWV. Corrected.
It is amazing that people can still pretend that the leadership spill is anything but a farce. Talk about tactics over strategy.
can anybody with a fractionally operating braincell please explain what the Rudd strategy is, if they win. I understand what the strategy is, if they lose, but what on earth could be the strategy if they win? None, that is the point.
So, if the strategy is to undermined the Gillard government, regardless, why are there still Labor caucus members that support that strategy?
Supporting Rudd is fools gold.
This can only end in tears. My guess is that we will see the first of those tears just before 10:00AM tomorrow. The man is a fool, and his supporters even bigger fools. The labor party are the biggest fools for not seeing through this phoney a long time ago, or for hoping they could sweep his loose canon indiscretions under the carpet.
Just shows that the Americanization of Australian politics has been completed. We are all Americans now. Our most popular politicians are religious, narcissistic nutjobs.
[Zoidlord Rudd won’t win tomorrow and the next 18 months may be a repeat of the last 18 months.]
I’m betting it won’t be.
*unpleasant material alert*
Henry
All those white lines, about 40 of them, were needles he had inserted through his penis into his pelvis.
@ zoidlord
If Rudd wins tomorrow we will probably be going to an election later this year, maybe 🙂
1 brazillion (unconfirmed) Greentard
187 (unconfirmed) TP
52 geoffrey
45 mick77
44 Son of Zoomster
43 WeWantPaul
42 Scorpio
41 Centaur009 , Mr Squiggle
40 lefty e
39 Mod Lib
38 Darn, Gary Sparrow
37 Dyno , Luckydave
36 shellbell
35 BH , stanny ,ShowsOn, Benji
34 p m z , ltep ,Thornleigh Labor Man, deblonay
33 Andrew , BH , dave
32 Super,vitalise, DavidWH ,madcyril, Tom Hawkins, slackboy72 ,Burgey
31 Centre, Boerwar, mari , bluegreen,henry,sprocket
30 BK, mexicanbeemer , Apple Blossom
29 Think Big ,outside left ,Gary, fiz
28 muttleymcgee, zoidlord ,robot ,Rossmore , HaveAchat, Harry “Snapper” Organs, Rod Hagen
27 Tricot, confessions, Bushfire Bill ,Diogenese ,Boinzo , rosemour
26 Poroti ,womble
25 It’s Time ,Dan Gulberry , Aguirre , Mick Collins , Paul_J , citizen , The Finnigans
24 AJ Canberra ,TLBD ,Lord Barry Bonkton , jeffmu ,Michael Cusack ,Greensborough Growler
23 Imacca,smithe ,Dr Fumbles McStupid , kevjohnno, briefly
22 Danny Lewis ,political animal
21 fredn ,Puff, the Magic Dragon ,Gorgeous Dunny
20 Jaeger, janice2 , sohar
19 Last name red wombat
18 Gusface , oyster
17 kezza2, Scringler ,cog, cybercynicagain
10 Ctar , rummel
3 canasta76
A very brave -13 deflationite
– 1 brazillion (Team Rudd default) Oakeshott Country ,jenauthor , JohD ,Gaffhook
dio
only forty neeedles!!!
why when i was a kid, we would insert hundreds of needles in penis
then go down pit and poke ourselves silly
he is looky
Didn’t My Say predict that Rudd would get only 4 votes?
[46/47 showns on – that’s a definite pull back from 58-42 from Sept/October IIRC.
That must be obvious surely.]
As I have posted previously I accept that. But over the last 4 months or so there has been a flatline.
And wouldn’t we all be shocked if there wasn’t a shift from 58? But what is disturbing, is that Labor can’t even seem to get a poll that is a statistical tie.
[why when i was a kid, we would insert hundreds of needles in penis
then go down pit and poke ourselves silly]
Huh!?
[I’m perversely hoping that Julia promotes her supporters and demotes or fires completely Ruddites in her cabinet reshuffle, because that would signal that she’s not a uniter at all, and it’d sow the seeds of her eventual political death.]
Dream on. She’s already refused to accept Albo’s resignation as LOTH, and he’s supporting Teflon. This gives us some indication of her mindset.
I think we can expect this mangaminity to be extended to others.
Excepting Rudd himself, of course. You don’t comport yourself the manner he has and expect to get away scott free. He needs to pay some penalty for his truly crap conduct.
I’d expect him to get some quality backbench time until he demonstrates that he can be a team player. He might get a ministry later.
gus
You were obviously filthy rich as you could afford more than 40 needles.
@JonD/561
Interesting to note that Rudd kept on blaming the faceless men in an interview on the ABC tonight, where as, when the Coup happens, Gillard stated that “Goverment has lost it’s way”.
[is that Labor can’t even seem to get a poll that is a statistical tie.]
Well….actually you could argue that a 53-47 is a statistical tie when the MOE is 3%
Only 40 phew.
50 and he might have some issues…
Thornleigh Labor Man
[Didn’t My Say predict that Rudd would get only 4 votes?]
Did not see but will add as an unconfirmed . Night y’all
[Wise words from Lachlan Harris – Swan and others have set a dangerous precedent:]
And Rudd wasn’t simply an alternate candidate. He is a former Labor Prime Minister who defeated John Howard from opposition!
Swan has no credibility left.
Will polls continue to publish Rudd vs Gillard, Rudd vs Abbott etc after he loses? If so then I’m even more convinced that Gillard is unelectable. People could still be registering protest votes for Rudd 18 months from now.
dio
ha
actually i saw that, when u posted it
i suspected it was something pretty weird
🙁
[It looks like Kim Carr and Robert McClelland will be joining KR in the naughty corner, perhaps Chris Bowen also might tell Julia to shove it – what I’m hearing.]
You are again pretending that you have some finger on the pulse. We saw a list of your predictions 2 days ago. It was a massive joke,
Actually how do you get a needle through your knob and into your pelvis???
Nevermind I don’t really want to know..
Oh and showson 50-50 now is irrelevant really.
ShowsOn
[SIXTY FOUR PERCENT DISAPROVAL
How do you like those rotten apples!?]
Spike from Rudd public campaign. Polls at extraordinary times are meaningless.
[Will polls continue to publish Rudd vs Gillard, Rudd vs Abbott etc after he loses?]
Does a bear shit in the woods?
Shows On: I agree!
Night all, off to bed. 🙂
“Where’s the bastard who said ‘this is going to hurt me more than you'”?
As for Lachlan Harris, former Rudd press secretary or something like that, he was part of the praetorian guard of 20 something eejits who were a large contributor to the Rudd mess. Have very little time for him.
Ghost who votes:
If you are still around, did Newspoll stratify Rudd v Gillard for voting intention?
[ albo is one mean mofo
a fat little farqer
but he is our FLF
and the best FLF around
forget Jg and clean air
watch the FLF go pyrotechnic ]
Gusface. The Enigma Machine has blown a 6V6 G rectifier valve. Seven resistors appear to have carbonized. The capacitors are leaking.
Do you have pigeons? Is Morse OK? (SMile thingy)
Yep, Swan has to go for a reconciliation to occur between camps.
Tom,
Only Mclelland has said Labor can’t win with Gillard. So I would expect him to go. All the other Ministers have merely said the best chance of winning was with Rudd.
Carr was demoted because it was thought that he was leaking.
Bowen has clearly been dissasified with his lot. My understanding is that he believes his talents are not fully appreciated. Julia may show her appreciation.
Albo and Ferguson should be OK.
Michelle Grattan:
[The Gillard camp last night put his numbers at between 29 and 32, while the Rudd camp estimated his support at 30 to 35, probably 32 or 33, among the 102 caucus members.]
After tomorrow and based on what both Gillard and Rudd have committed, loser moves to the backbench and not contest the leadership before the next election, then there should be no reason to include the losing person in future polling. But I wouldn’t put my house on them not doing it.
Actually given these polling numbers you would think they should put more emphasis on the Liberal leadership.
scringler
mr albanese is not to be messed with
i suspect after the am thingy, jg will let him off the leash
i feel sorry for the fibs
Phillip Coorey:
[Last night, an estimated 69 members of the 103-strong caucus were backing Ms Gillard and 29 supported Mr Rudd. Five were either undecided or undeclared.]
In the voting
I will be brave and go for 46 in the sweepstakes. Put my money where my mouth is.
Am I allowed two guesses. My alternative guess is 25.
@William/590,
Interesting that both camps have said similar numbers 30,31,32 numbers for both camps.
Matthew Franklin:
[The latest estimates give Ms Gillard about 67 of the 103 caucus votes.]
Henry,
Harris was COS. Pedigree is pretty good in the ALP.
Bramston is another of Rudd’s confidantes that pops up in the media. However, he is detested by many in the ALP because of a history of broken confidences and a propensity to shit on the ALP whenever given the opportunity.
Phillip Hudson and Matt Johnston of the Herald Sun:
[Last night Ms Gillard had 68 votes and Mr Rudd 32 votes with three either undecided or not telling, although some believe there might be a late switch by a handful of MPs.]
TLM
[Of course Rudd will be gracious – it’s more than Julia and her poisonous backers deserve.]
How gracious of him to be gracious after inflicting untold damage continually since August 2010, and all for what? An emphatic re-affirmation of the decision to remove him.
[Yep, Swan has to go for a reconciliation to occur between camps.]
Nonsense.
He gave us a few truths about Teflon and his conduct and if you think Gillard is going to punish him for that (just to appease the bloke who has been religiously white-anting her for months), you are very much mistaken.
I expect that within the Party it will be a case of peace through superior firepower after Monday, comrade.