Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition

I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.

UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,080 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition”

  1. I do take some comfort in that the chances of Turnbull challenging Abbott, while still small, will have increased just a little from the Abbott numbers which are terrible given the past weeks events.

  2. So, ABC24 will cover the events tomorrow from sparrow fart. Why? Jumpy shots of an empty room? The ABC really needs to get a grip.

    Anyway, some time ago, in a fit of pique, I dashed off a complaint to the ABC over its coverage of news conferences on ABC24. I complained that the journalists’ questions were, in the main, inaudible. I suggested the ABC invest in a directional microphone, available from Mr D. Smith for a modest price.

    I also advised that the cost of this kit should not exceed $14.96.

    And, to ABC24’s credit, I received this reply:

    +++

    “Thank you for your email regarding the lack of audio on questions at news conferences broadcast by ABC News24.

    This lack of audio is as frustrating to us as it is to you but sadly, based on current technology, it is something we cannot immediately resolve.

    The reason for the lack of question audio is that many camera crews nowadays consist only of the camera operator . A sound operator is rarely sent out on general news jobs as an efficiency measure. Consequently the camera operator has to monitor both his vision and the audio of the person being interviewed but does not have the capability to also point a directional microphone to pick up the questions.

    While that is not an issue for the ABC 1 7 p.m. news which uses only short soundbites, it is a significant problem for News24.

    ABC News 24 continues to seek a technical solution to what is essentially a human resource problem.

    We are sorry we cannot be more positive and regret the inconvenience. ”

    Dunno about you lot, but I regard that as a pretty honest answer.

  3. [Guesses ? My good sir they are all expert opinions ! Number currently stands at 96]

    C’mon PBers who haven’t voted…..lets get to the century!

  4. You’re trolling, Zoidlord. TP had done nothing other than state opinions you disagreed with, and you made a gratuitous personal attack against him. If you can’t deal in a more mature fashion with the expression of opinions you disagree with, please stop coming here.

  5. [i’m in for 52]

    Well done Geoffrey,

    I guessed 41 and I think the risks are on the upside too

    Is there scope for a second vote if the first is not conclusive? I don’t understand ALP rules at all

  6. [How about this theory: Rudd being in the public eye over the last week or so actually helped Labor’s polling.
    The fact that the man will now be relegated to basically doing nothing on the backbench is a waste of talent & campaigning skill. .]

    Well as Possum said it is because people assume Rudd is coming back, being far preferred as he is.

    Won’t they all be in for a surprise when what they want matters not.

  7. Mod Lib

    [Guesses ? My good sir they are all expert opinions ! Number currently stands at 96

    C’mon PBers who haven’t voted…..lets get to the century!]
    Right on.We are at 98 !!

  8. @William/506,

    Rubbish, I didn’t call him or anyone such as Dickhead or the like, that’s a personal attack, I may have disagreed with his comments, but not call anyone of the sort (or anyone names for that matter).

    I think you have mistaken me for someone else.

  9. So we can conclude that the Newspoll again makes the case for the return of Rudd as leader – all irrelevant of course to 70% of the Labor caucus.

  10. Apple Blossom

    [Poroti,

    Is there some prize for the person who managed to guess how many votes Rudd gets?]
    Yes, 24 hours of being able to say “Nyah Nyah.Told Ya So” .Keeping in mind William will set strict limits on such bragging.Perhaps as low as one…………. or less 🙂

  11. tom paine

    you are right have been steadfastly so on this topic of kr for last 12 months dont care about your background you are right on this one . right also that newspoll is because public like rudd on front page. simple as that.

  12. 64% disapprove of JG, is fully 7% higher than :mrgreen: on 57% disapprove

    clearly JG’s numbers are conflated by the challenge scenario, so she is attracting all the Rudd votes + the normal L-NP ones she gets. This will settle back down after the challenge fades, which it will very very quickly.

    as for :mrgreen: sadly for him, the 57% disapprove is solid

  13. so jules will male reprisal against anyone speaking out are true – such inclusivity. and tomorrow is a secret ballot, yes. result could be most interesting

  14. Squiggle – the coalition 2PP is slowly declining.
    That’s the difference.
    Abbott is like Rudd in that Newspoll is his only friend and that friend is having…reservations…

  15. Those ratings aren’t great but the important figure is what the vote would be if Rudd was leader.

    I’m guessing the poll will shift from an ALP loss under Gillard to a win under Rudd.

  16. Question from the floor without notice.

    How come the preferred PM questions, preferred leader questions come out later then the earlier Newspoll released details.

    I thought they would just release all details of polls at the same time.

    .

  17. Greensborough Growler

    [Gillard will get 78 and Rudd 24.]
    Laydeeeez and Genulmun we have PB entry number 100. Sold to the yappy dog in the corner 🙂 ( Counting may bot be accurate but damn near )

  18. [Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Ian

    Julia Gillard is stronger ethically, morally, personally and, importantly, mentally than Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnball and any other they put up against her.

    Not sure how that logic explains 11 years of John Howard. ]

    Well it was only the Liberal Party. And on the opposite side for most of that time was the do-nothing Beazley.

  19. [So we can conclude that the Newspoll again makes the case for the return of Rudd as leader – all irrelevant of course to 70% of the Labor caucus.]

    And it should be irrelevant to them. As has been said many times, Rudd’s problems weren’t to do with TEH POLLS, no matter how many times the press claim that was it so they can keep bashing Gillard.

  20. [Squiggle – the coalition 2PP is slowly declining.]
    I’m still waiting for evidence of this. I don’t think the trend has shifted much if at all since mid November.

    Labor is on about 46, the Coalition is on about 54.

  21. Rising 2PP … maybe but isn’t the margin of error 2-3%? I suppose we’ll only know next poll what the Rudd in/out factor may have been. I suspect that Rudd’s presence with cheer squads in shopping centres has given 1-2% more and disappointment that he’s beaten could send it back to 55-45 or worse (with margin of error of course). Unfortunately the Rudd factor will not go away even if Rudd sort of goes away. His ghost will live forever on Gillard’s shoulder.

  22. I’m surprised nobody has talked about what will happen after the events of tomorrow (i.e The next 18 months) if Rudd comes out as the winner – since he’s suppose to be the underdog?

    The only thing that this forum and the media has talked about is what will happen tomorrow?

  23. [Laydeeeez and Genulmun we have PB entry number 100. Sold to the yappy dog in the corner ( Counting may bot be accurate but damn near )]

    Well done!

    100 is the perfect number to do stats on so I would close now if I were you (sorry Bilbo, you missed the boat).

    As someone who has collated results before, I know how much work it is and tips my hat…

  24. Last chance
    .
    1 brazillion (unconfirmed) Greentard
    187 (unconfirmed) TP
    52 geoffrey
    45 mick77
    44 Son of Zoomster
    43 WeWantPaul
    42 Scorpio
    41 Centaur009 , Mr Squiggle
    40 lefty e
    39 Mod Lib
    38 Darn, Gary Sparrow
    37 Dyno , Luckydave
    36 shellbell
    35 BH , stanny ,ShowsOn, Benji
    34 p m z , ltep ,Thornleigh Labor Man, deblonay
    33 Andrew , BH , dave
    32 Super,vitalise, DavidWH ,madcyril, Tom Hawkins, slackboy72 ,Burgey
    31 Centre, Boerwar, mari , bluegreen,henry,sprocket
    30 BK, mexicanbeemer , Apple Blossom
    29 Think Big ,outside left ,Gary, fiz
    28 muttleymcgee, zoidlord ,robot ,Rossmore , HaveAchat, Harry “Snapper” Organs, Rod Hagen
    27 Tricot, confessions, Bushfire Bill ,Diogenese ,Boinzo , rosemour
    26 Poroti ,womble
    25 It’s Time ,Dan Gulberry , Aguirre , Mick Collins , Paul_J , citizen , The Finnigans
    24 AJ Canberra ,TLBD ,Lord Barry Bonkton , jeffmu ,Michael Cusack ,Greensborough Growler
    23 Imacca,smithe ,Dr Fumbles McStupid , kevjohnno, briefly
    22 Danny Lewis ,political animal
    21 fredn ,Puff, the Magic Dragon ,Gorgeous Dunny
    20 Jaeger, janice2 , sohar
    19 Last name red wombat
    18 Gusface , oyster
    17 kezza2, Scringler ,cog, cybercynicagain
    10 Ctar , rummel
    3 canasta76
    A very brave -13 deflationite
    – 1 brazillion (Team Rudd default) Oakeshott Country ,jenauthor , JohD ,Gaffhook

  25. I’m perversely hoping that Julia promotes her supporters and demotes or fires completely Ruddites in her cabinet reshuffle, because that would signal that she’s not a uniter at all, and it’d sow the seeds of her eventual political death.

  26. If those saying it’s the Rudd influence that has boosted Labor’s vote are correct then he’s boosted them from a solid defeat to a bad defeat.

  27. Well, there is no way to know, but I suspect he would have done what the ALP did and follow the Treasuries advice. You say we would have gone into recession, just like Europe, blah, blah, blah…

    in other words you agree that the Fibs would have cocked up their handling of the GFC

  28. [52 geoffrey
    45 mick77
    44 Son of Zoomster
    43 WeWantPaul
    42 Scorpio
    41 Centaur009 , Mr Squiggle
    40 lefty e
    39 Mod Lib
    38 Darn, Gary Sparrow
    37 Dyno , Luckydave
    36 shellbell
    35 BH , stanny ,ShowsOn, Benji
    34 p m z , ltep ,Thornleigh Labor Man, deblonay
    33 Andrew , BH , dave
    32 Super,vitalise, DavidWH ,madcyril, Tom Hawkins, slackboy72 ,Burgey
    31 Centre, Boerwar, mari , bluegreen,henry,sprocket
    30 BK, mexicanbeemer , Apple Blossom
    29 Think Big ,outside left ,Gary, fiz
    28 muttleymcgee, zoidlord ,robot ,Rossmore , HaveAchat, Harry “Snapper” Organs, Rod Hagen
    27 Tricot, confessions, Bushfire Bill ,Diogenese ,Boinzo , rosemou]

    hmmm

    might need a a few more black books

    🙁

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