We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.
Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.
Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).
The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.
[Mike Kelly MP
@ZuveleLeschen @Thefinnigans @SpaceKidette will admit came v close to pulling the pin. Albo, Abbott & the importance of 2013 pulled me back.]
Whew!
Tricot, out of interest I did some quick googling and found an article titled “Beazley’s Labor Pains” and also an article written fairly recently titled “Labor Pains” about Kevin Rudd. So I’m not sure I’d read too much into it other than people being not quite as original as they hoped they were being.
[You are dreaming again, ShowsOn. Rudd does not have the capacity to lead anything and will never get a majority in caucus. ]
Never implies a very long time!
[k[ickin in the front seat
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 7:59 pm | Permalink
On the 7.00 News Toolman unequivocally said Gillard won’t win the 2013 election, is he a fool or does he have more insider knowledge, one more email to complaints.
I’d like to thank Rudd for the opportunity to make some easy money, got on at 1.20
a 2? would be nice tomorrow]
Think Toolman will be sleeping on the couch tonight that is if he is lucky and the locks haven’t been changed already
[5 hours of Toolman and Curtis ‘analyising’ stuff.
Better set my alarm.]
Yes.
For 9:55.
Lefty, you Rudd people need to get your stories straight 😉 is it a secret ballot that hes bound to do better in than people think or is it Zimbabwe style bully tactics being waged by the “faceless men” that requires the AEC to oversee the ballot?
Mex 3234
Okey doke. Healthy sex interest, different story. Peace.
My predicts: about 30 for KR – finito pal.
fredn
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4 ]
Annnnnnd . http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BruEmB7_1ok
William – what colour Rudds tie tomorrow – I’ll help, he wore light blue today and Rein/Hawker will surely bin that.
[you Rudd people]
You mean the voting pubic?
William,
Who do you think will win on Monday?
Public. Hah!
zoomster
Could you translate Kelly’s tweet pls? Could read either way, to me.
Gillard will win, AB.
[Lefty, you Rudd people need to get your stories straight is it a secret ballot that hes bound to do better in than people]
It should be a proper secret ballot where people don’t show each other their ballot papers to prove they voted a factional line.
The ministry should be chosen exactly the same way. I can’t see how anyone could argue otherwise.
Well happy to go on record as saying the hundred or so men that I call friends neither think of their ladies as objects of sex nor destruction…
I very much agree with Bilbo. If a similar comment had been made in reference to the attitudes of ‘ most women’ it would be equally as bizarre and untrue.
Maybe some PBers have a different crowd of men they relate to… Not union thugs by any chance.. Of course.
Hi Bonita,
Are you back at uni this week?
You know what is pretty torturous? Last night, I was at this small party, I found myself being surrounded by Ruddsters. One thought Gillard’s primary support vote is 10%.
I managed to distract myself by talking to someone who wasn’t paying attention to conversation. Keeping my mouth shut was a difficult experience.
Would be a shame to lose someone of Mike Kelly’s obvious abilities – another reason I hope Labor sort themselves out after the vote tomorrow
William Bowe
[ It would be a rather odd thing for me to lift a ban on Frank in the current environment. I gather he’s enjoying himself at his own place anyway.]
Not even to set what would no doubt be the never to be bettered “Fastest Banning on Poll Bludger” record ? 🙂
whore
Shows,
I’m back tomorrow.
Shows On
firstly, you’re not going to be in the room, so you have no idea what kind of ballot it will be.
secondly, as I’ve said before, it’s irrelevant how the parliamentary party choses the leader, as long as the majority accept the result.
They could toss a coin if they liked.
[Who do you think will win on Monday?]
gee Apple, where have you been hiding?
I certainly don’t ShowsOn, but I’m not a member of the ALP.
[BK
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 6:36 pm | Permalink
I’d like to see Andrew Leigh get a guernsey in a portfolio that could well use his economic credentials.]
Second that, BK. Trade is probably an option if Emerson continues as Foreign Minister. No point in moving Smith back with his big agenda on Defence.
Yeah, they had a half hour news thing on the spill on radio, between innings in the cricket. I missed most of it, but at the end it was mostly speculation as to whether Gillard will survive the next spill, and who will challenge. Which indicates:
1. They’re already looking past tomorrow – there’s nobody left who thinks it’s a real contest any more.
2. They’re assuming the next election is unwinnable for the ALP under Gillard.
3. They’re assuming the ALP feel the same way – or will in six months.
2 and 3 are both debatable. It’s a political truism that a week is a long time, so you simply can’t make assumptions that far ahead.
What this does do is settle a question in the minds of voters. Rudd had his chance to regain the leadership. So from here on in it’s not a dangling question, it’s been answered to a large extent, and Rudd goes from wronged man to a kind of Don Quixote figure. The extent of his chances of regaining the leadership are known, and a proportion of the electorate will want and expect him to give up and stop causing trouble. Not all of course, but there will be a switch for some.
That might give Gillard and the ALP a bit of clear air. How it plays out I don’t know.
{ Gillard will win, AB. }
As hard as for you to say William.
Now the harder question what colour the losing tie?
[William Bowe
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 8:14 pm | Permalink
Gillard will win, AB.]
Agreed.
I’m glad this is being decided by the Labor MPs. Would be a completely different story if the Australian public was voting.
Itep 3256
It is not a truly “secret” ballot in the sense that we all understand it when voting in an election. That’s because the faction leaders control their MPs and the way they vote.
What happens is this: each MP is given a blank piece of paper, they write their choice on it, they MUST then show it to one of their factional colleagues to ensure they haven’t ratted on the faction’s choice, then they place it in a ballot box.
I don’t think it’s democratic, but it has always been the case, and will remain so as long as the party is factionalised, no matter who is the Leader.
[3253
ShowsOn
You are dreaming again, ShowsOn. Rudd does not have the capacity to lead anything and will never get a majority in caucus.
Never implies a very long time!]
To borrow a phrase, SO….if we never see him again, it will be too soon.
zoomster,
Can I lend anyone a double-header?
[gee Apple, where have you been hiding?]
I haven’t directly spoken to William in a while. I know most of us agree on Gillard, I was just unsure on what William thinks.
And I have not been on PB in the last couple of days.
well, I’m just testing words.
See my 3272
‘whore’ obviously ISN’T a word that gets one banned.
I’m trying to find out why my 3174 was put into moderation.
As is my 3267.
Can’t for the life of me find an offensive word.
Let’s see if this gets through.
Gillard isn’t unpopular due to sexism.
Losing tie will be puce for the perfect match.
Is GhostWhoVotes going to tweet the newspoll tonight? Might have to wait up for it
[Shows,
I’m back tomorrow.]
Same here!
ShowsOn
[Gillard isn’t unpopular due to sexism.]
No.Not entirely but it is not within bounds of reason to believe there are 2% of people who are swayed by ,to put it politely, their traditional views on woman. Let alone a shacking up atheist one !
[ShowsOn
Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 8:22 pm | Permalink
Gillard isn’t unpopular due to sexism.]
Although there are some people out there who won’t vote for her because she’s a woman.
It turns out I have a block on “c*nt”, for what I think is pretty good reason. What constitutes an “offensive word” is, I guess, in the eye of the beholder, but I don’t think it should be that great a surprise that I nominated that as one at some point in the past.
No Itep, that is not the point.
Beazley’s or Rudd’s Labor painsheadline is now a cliche.
However, it just has that bit more spite when applied to a woman who does not have children and may never have.
I suppose it would be the same style of comment say if you knew for certain a male PM was unable to have children and come out with some clever dick comment (sorry about the pun) along the lines of
“Fred fails to get his Bill up and shows how Impotent his Attack is.”
See, to a bloke who had 5 kids it would mean one thing, but to some guy who could not father kids, it would be much nastier.
I thought you would get that.
“And the Band Played Waltzing Matilda”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-02-26/rudd-backers-warn-of-future-challenge-against-gillard/3853646
No Itep, that is not the point.
Beazley’s or Rudd’s Labor pains headline is now a cliche.
However, it just has that bit more spite when applied to a woman who does not have children and may never have.
I suppose it would be the same style of comment say if you knew for certain a male PM was unable to have children and come out with some clever dick comment (sorry about the pun) along the lines of
“Fred fails to get his Bill up and shows how Impotent his Attack is.”
See, to a bloke who had 5 kids it would mean one thing, but to some guy who could not father kids, it would be much nastier.
I thought you would get that.
gees Penny Wong does a great in explaining things in sensible terms, would make a sensational Treasurer if Swan would be willing to switch to Foreign Minister
I wonder what those who, like Mr Speers, regarded Mr Rudd’s resignation as a brilliant political move will say know?
[ Mike Kelly MP
@ZuveleLeschen @Thefinnigans @SpaceKidette will admit came v close to pulling the pin. Albo, Abbott & the importance of 2013 pulled me back.]
So MK has finally stated he’s a Ruddite?
KRudd is a good example of why we should have had an unelected upper house ala House of Lords.
Rudd could have been pushed upstairs 🙂
Shows
[Shows,
I’m back tomorrow.
Same here!]
Ah yes, in a way I’m not looking forward to it– all that pressure that builds up over time and it just makes me exhausted.
Tomorrow should be a good day, provided I get to catch up with one of politics lecturers as we were meant to a couple of days ago.
Looking forward to a sausage sizzle with my comrades, once William’s generously donated meat tray is properly apportioned, but surely Diog is too far south to attend by 10.30am tomorrow morning? Doesn’t he have lives to save anyway? We’ll have a snag for you, Diog. Unless you’d like us to save you one?
Can my dogs, Bob and Cozzie attend? They have a rare eye for a sausage and are demons for a nice piece of rare steak.
[BB
You would give Mr Rudd a portfolio if you thought he was 100% sane. You would try to stitch up a deal with him if you thought he was 100% sane.
I guess we’ll know this time tomorrow night.
My guess is that absolutely nothing would stop Mr Rudd from trying to regain the número uno spot.]
OK, so my preferred scenario is this.
Rudd builds on his “unequivocal support until the next election“ (note: NOT “until otherwise drafted or she f**ks up again”) statement of today, by urging his supporters to likewise throw their unequivocal support behind Julia Gillard.
Gillard’s “Gillard v. Rudd” rating immediately goes from 49/48 (or whatever) to 90/2 (with 8 still preferring “Mr. Other”) among Labor voters.
Improvements are also seen among Liberal voters, once they get the message that not only has Rudd thrown his weight behind the PM, but so have his supporters, and Albo is keeping a sturdy eye on the proceedings.
The hiatus in leaks, background briefings and outright slaggings-off stops. If any journos try to make out that Rudd is still white-anting, he makes a public statement to the contrary effect, and can prove it.
Rudd is appointed as Special Minister Of State. Gillard, in making this appointment, refers to the revered Bob Hawke and the equally revered Mick Young, who first held this portfolio. It is in effect “Minister For Propaganda”, with the sole aim of getting the message out that “Julia da Lady”, personally sponsored and shielded from the vicissitudes of wankers and other journalists by Rudd himself.
Come 2013, a glorious victory for Gillard as head of a united Labor Party, with Rudd recommended as Australia’s nomination for General Secretary Of The United Nations when the gig comes up. I was considering a fall back position as Special UN Envoy Assisting Alexander Downer in Cyprus, but that would be petty of me. Even Rudd does not deserve to have to share a room, even for a day, with Downer.