Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)

We now have a veritable polling bonanza courtesy of Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll. The Newspoll results however arise from The Australian having rushed into print with just the polling from one night of surveying, accounting for only 346 respondents. Nielsen was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 1200, Galaxy on Thursday and Friday from a sample of 1020.

Both Nielsen and Galaxy suggest the last week’s turmoil have had essentially no impact on voting intention. Nielsen has two-party preferred at 53-47, unchanged from its poll of February 2-4, with primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (up one), 44 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (down one). Full results, including state breakdowns, are available courtesy of GhostWhoVotes. Galaxy has the Coalition two-party preferred lead at 54-46, unchanged on their previous poll of four weeks ago, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader produces far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September: the Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy all produce similar results for preferred Labor leader: Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago), Galaxy has it at 52-26 (52-30 a month ago) and Newspoll has it at 53-30 (tables from Newspoll here). Breakdows by party support from Galaxy and Newspoll point to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters: in Galaxy’s case from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now, while Newspoll has Rudd’s lead at 58-41. That there is little shift among all voters presumably suggests a corresponding drop in support for Rudd among Coalition supporters. Newspoll has Gillard losing ground against Tony Abbott, who now leads her 43-34 compared with 40-37 a fortnight ago, and Rudd leading Abbott 48-40 – although the incomplete state of this poll means this should obviously be treated with caution (full results from it can be viewed here).

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,344 comments on “Nielsen: 53-47 to Coalition (among other things)”

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  1. Bushfire Bill 3166

    Agree. After all, there’s only a measly 3% deficit to make up. That can happen in a month. The commentariat are blind to this. Astonishing.

    The idea of getting Rudd into the right portfolio makes sense. Obviously a strategically minor one where he can do no damage, but where his spruiking strengths can be used.

    He probably wouldn’t accept it, though (but no problem – it would be further proof of his disloyalty). Knowing that, Gillard should go ahead and make the offer. That would wedge Rudd. If he takes up the offer, that would be no problem either. She wins either way.

    Is Gillard a smart tactician or is she not? By Jove, she is.

    Gillard has to have the secret police on his tail all the time from now on, and have the cabinet room securely bugged. Anyone caught leaking should be drawn across the coals.

    That includes leaking from staff (which in my opinion are the hardest leaks to plug).

  2. William … have the crikey mob charged up the batteries.

    Gee I hope we dont have server problems in here tomorrow around 0600 to say 1130hrs. Ive got all my digits crossed, all 22 of them.

  3. [William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 7:40 pm | Permalink
    I was rather assuming Danny was male, Kezza, to the extent that I thought about it at all.]
    Huh?
    What difference did it make if Danny Lewis was male or female?

    Danny Lewis happens to be female. I was supporting her.
    So, I’d appreciate you taking my post at 3174 out of moderation.

    If that’s not too much trouble.

  4. [It ain’t rocket science.
    Out in Punterville a whole lot of not very well informed people think that come July they’re going to be paying a carbon tax.
    Their bills, invoices, and receipts will show a CT (carbon tax) amount under the GST amount.
    Seriously, these people exist. Lots of them.
    They don’t like Gillard or the ALP for that reason alone.

    We have to be patient.]

    No this is the problwm. The ALP do not get it. You have to repeat the slogans over and over to get the message through. they should be banging on about the tax cuts repeatedly but they don’t. thats why they don’t get their message through its like they can’t be bothered. that is why Abbott is so successful he works in simple three word slogans. to win the ALP just need to repeat the tax benefits at every press conference. it is really that simple. Rudd is a good campaigner because he sticks to a script and message which is believable. Gillard repeats meaningless slogans. Abbott repeats slogans to play on fears. The ALP need to repeat slogans which appeal to peoples self interest.

  5. [Danny wasn’t being unhinged. Not one bit. Many guys think like that.]

    “Many guys” think that those women who shouldn’t be f**ked should be killed? What a strange crowd we get at this blog.

  7. William Bowe

    [Yes, I recognise ShowsOn has earned more censure than he’s been getting lately, but that’s just been down to luck. I haven’t been around when he’s been most active.]
    So we have not seen Willian Bowe and ShowsOn in the room at the same time,coincidence ? 😆 Anyway, William are you hazarding a guess in the PB sweepstakes as to how many votes Kevin Rudd will get.

  8. Lord Barry Bonkton
    [ I challenge you to a duel S/on Pistols at 200 mts. ]

    Anytime, you choose Lord Barry – actually I do know an out of work hitman with the same name as a current PB pest. And just a phone call away. And I won’t even leave home.
    Lord, I hope you have listened to my PB financial advice over the last 36 hours.

  9. [Sounding more and more like tssk,..]

    Except Im making a serious point, Joe2. Get yer hand off it!

    If it wasnt for Abbott being leader, we’d probably have a Liberal minority govt already.

  10. Funny thing about all this; Gillard didn’t bad mouth Rudd and gave Rudd two choices. Be FM and have his legacy preserved or behave as he has done and be destroyed.

    The godless barren bitch (a summary of his words) showed more humanity than he had to good sense to consider and take advantage of.

  11. Actually Danny reference to the mindset of people that have been in prison or have had other situations that create bitterness towards society but more so against women for they find it harder to hate men for their lot, not sure why but that tends to play out yet within the social welfare sector is dominated by women

  12. Kezza, your comment at #3188 sounded very much to me like you were suggesting I was talking down to Danny because she’s female. So the answer to your question “what difference did it make if Danny Lewis was male or female?” would appear to be “everything”, given the context.

  14. I have had visitors for a long weekend, have just returned from putting them on the plane. One from overseas said to me last night”I had heard that Australians are misogynists and after rewading and listening to your media I think this is correct” I felt very ashamed but said I agree with you unfortunately.
    The other thing is re Mike Kelly Phil Coorey said yesterday that he had JG 67 to KR29 with 7 undecided tonight it is JG 69 KR 29 5 undecided, Mike Kelly said today he had decided and had told the leaders and that was all he was saying???

  15. [lefty e
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 7:47 pm | Permalink
    …

    If it wasnt for Abbott being leader, we’d probably have a Liberal minority govt already.]

    And it would seem if it wasn’t for Rudd sabotaging the election we would have a majority Labor government. What if’s aren’t anything more the puffs of hot air.

  18. I have wondered why do and lets put it this way loser boys in men body take their bitterness out on women rather than make the effort to be the best person that can be

  20. One of my hobbies is buying random second hand CDs from Salvo stores. Some of the Ozark-type C&W involve men singing about having to shoot their wimmin folk. Shocking, but not surprising, I suppose.

  26. Whoa! Flame war.

    Take down my offensive comment, if that helps, Bilbo.

    I unreservedly apologise to anyone who was freaked out by it.

  27. [William Bowe
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 7:48 pm | Permalink
    Kezza, your comment at #3188 sounded very much to me like you were suggesting I was talking down to Danny because she’s female. So the answer to your question “what difference did it make if Danny Lewis was male or female?” would appear to be “everything”, given the context.]

    Really?
    [your comment at #3188 sounded very much to me like you were suggesting I was talking down to Danny because she’s female]

    How about you read my posts in context then, instead of immediately assuming I’m wrong?

    My earlier post, which was in moderation – AND only because you put it there, and which you could have read had you been interested would have solved your dilemma.

    You’re so used to having a go a me, you have lost your discernment.

  29. Boer

    years ago, when rap was big, I was stuck on a three hour school bus trip.

    Some of the teenage boys selected the music, and it was all along the lines of “I just shot the bitch”. One was about a man getting his three year old daughter to help him push mumma’s body off the pier.

  31. { Gillard should make Rudd Government Leader in the House.

    That would keep him busy

    PS I’m joking }
    Danny, the sporadic verbose BB also amazingly states that Rudd should have a VIP position in the Gilliard Government.

  32. On the 7.00 News Toolman unequivocally said Gillard won’t win the 2013 election, is he a fool or does he have more insider knowledge, one more email to complaints.

    I’d like to thank Rudd for the opportunity to make some easy money, got on at 1.20
    a 2? would be nice tomorrow

  34. dedalus – I think you may have mis-read 3183 for I was saying only a small section of men really hated women and they were mostly losers.

    And both men and women check one another out

  37. Since William has donated the meat tray it would be most improper for him to enter the competition, wouldn’t it, poroti? Put him him down for 30 but don’t tell him!

  38. William Bowe

    [No, Poroti.]
    Fair enough. You do after all need to maintain your disinterested observer/analyst status. How about a post vote “expected” or “not expected” result”?

  40. [Danny Lewis
    Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 7:55 pm | Permalink
    Whoa! Flame war.

    Take down my offensive comment, if that helps, Bilbo.

    I unreservedly apologise to anyone who was freaked out by it.]
    Bilbo made it a flame war. Not you.
    So why are you apologising?

  41. [3130
    ShowsOn

    It doesn’t really matter what the numbers are tomorrow. …… I am not saying Rudd will win the next leadership contest in a landslide, but I think it will be a comfortable margin, he will get about 60 votes.]

    You are dreaming again, ShowsOn. Rudd does not have the capacity to lead anything and will never get a majority in caucus. Some day, you will be able to look back and see that he was dumped for good reasons. And since those reasons have not changed – if anything, they have been compounded – he has no case. He had every conceivable opportunity to firstly rule well and then latterly to redeem himself. He failed both gigs. He is now a fading comet.

  42. BB – as I is also on 27 – along with about 4 others, we will all get a chop and/or sausage each if this is the case.

    However, as my predictions rate along with winning raffles (hardly ever) I think somebody else will finish up with the goodies.

    By the way GS, in this gender free world we live in – what would have been the male equivalent heading in the msm for this?

    “Julia’s Labor Pains”?

    See, this came from some smug subbie who could read between the lines like the rest of us — get it?

    She, she does not have children, but then if she did she would know all about this, but see she does not cos see like she hasn’t had kids. So, what would she know?

    Clever ain’t it? Being sexist but not quite enough to raise a fuss.

    In fact the header was just plain offensive.

  44. William,

    For info only has Shows On been red carded and how long. Is Frank still currently under ban.

    Are there any other regulars that are on the sidelines atm.

    Cheers

  48. Kezza, I’ll take your word for it that your comment didn’t mean what I thought it did (so I now don’t understand it at all, but never mind, no biggie). Also, I didn’t “put” your comment in moderation (indeed, it would make no sense for me to do so). This happens automatically. It would have contained a word that activated the moderation filter.

  50. ShowsOn hasn’t been red carded at this stage, GG. It would be a rather odd thing for me to lift a ban on Frank in the current environment. I gather he’s enjoying himself at his own place anyway.

Comments are closed.

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