GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.
On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.
The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.
Poroti- mine was 41 to Rudd.
Cheeseman promoted to LOTH? hahaha- you obviously haven’t met the man or you wouldn’t be saying that
[A woman beholden]
You really do have a warped view of women don’t you
[Sixty per cent of Labor voters believed Mr Rudd had been a good PM before he was dumped in June 2010.]
Haha…well the smear campaign over the past few years may have reduced this down from 80% but that is still a good figure.
internal polling says that there are around 70 vegimites who are unhappy with Mr Rudd’s destructiveness and around 30 vegimites who are delighted by his destructiveness.
[I hate to break this to you but the Liberal party will be hounding the ALP with this saga for the next decade.]
I’ve heard such comments before. I remeber Abbott in government reading from Latham’s book sometime between 2004 and 2007. It was thought that the Libs would use Latham’s words to help them win the 2007 election. It worked didn’t it?
[Who is the smartarse who accused Mr Rudd of being ‘Captain Perfect?’
Was it TP?]
No, Evan.
Mod Lib,
I sincerely hope your advice is heeded by the LIbs.
What it will show is the LNP mired in examining the entrails of yesteryear. Meanwhile Labor will just get on with Governing.
Voters at the next election will be more interested in what happens next.
The polls I’ve seen so far show no improvement to the Libs figures. But hey, fill your boots!
Neilsen 2PP unchanged from last time.
[mexicanbeemer
Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 12:16 am | Permalink
Mod Lib – I agree that in the short term you are correct but only five years ago we saw leadership tensions within the Liberal Party and even as late as 2010/11 their has been talk of Turnbull challenging.
Like most things it is a one term issue, maybe two terms if it continues]
Leadership turmoil is one thing, but here we have a majority of the party thinking its immediate past Prime Minister had some sort of personality disorder.
Leadership turmoil in the Opposition is also different to the Govt
Thomas
[.. in smearing Rudd ..]
Was that with vegemite?
And you missed out ‘knife’ again.
So both Neilsen and Galaxy unchanged. Hard to believe but good to see it hasnt gone backward for Labor.
[Despite the infighting, Labor’s primary vote has crept up to 34 per cent, its highest since November 2010, and the Coalition is steady on 44 per cent. The Coalition leads Labor on a two-party-preferred basis by 53 per cent to 47 per cent]
Well, Mod Lib that has just shot your argument to the shithouse.
DavidWH,
1. They were not trashing, they were speaking the truth.
2. Part of the government they were but really only “faithful servants” who forbade to show the PM up for what he was, because of loyalty.
[Rudd can in effect take over from Faulkner as the moral conscience of the Australian Labor Party]
Gold!
We have the joke of the Night, folks.
Appointing the duplicitous backgrounder as the ‘moral conscience’ of the ALP.
That’d be like appointing Ronnie Biggs to the Chair of the Bank of England Board.
Morgan 51.5-48.5 up 1.5
Galaxy 46-54 no change
Neilsen 47-53 up 1
Newspoll invalid as it polled 343 journalists and the 3 Rudds
where is this disaster for ALP we keep hearing about?
Leadership settled on Monday, Rudd neutered
I had to laugh I searched Kevin Rudd on facebook and the first name to appear was of a bloke in WA holding a bazooka.
[Well, Mod Lib that has just shot your argument to the shithouse.]
Gary
LOL
[ Diogenes
Posted Saturday, February 25, 2012 at 12:03 am | Permalink
Headline from the Hun
Galaxy Poll shows Kevin Rudd is Labor’s only hope of winning
Facepalm]
Just some oh-so-subtle support for their boy there, Diog. Gotta love the soft touch.
[Leadership turmoil is one thing, but here we have a majority of the party thinking its immediate past Prime Minister had some sort of personality disorder.]
Yes, Labor seems to be saying that back when they were popular they were dysfunctional, whereas now that they are very unpopular they are dysfunctional, but in a different way.
I’m tempted to suggest that one interpretation of those polls is that the voting public haven’t been paying as much attention to the goings on of the last week as we have.
Surely that can’t be the case. 😉
You mean:
don’t you
Far out. I am exhausted.
I have a car.
Kevin, as I mentioned to the teller, I have other things to deal with
I do not want to see Kevin ever again.
[Well, Mod Lib that has just shot your argument to the shithouse.]
Lets hold that thought Gary!
[We have the joke of the Night, folks.
Appointing the duplicitous backgrounder as the ‘moral conscience’ of the ALP.]
GIllard didn\’t seem to mind people backgrounding on her behalf, like Arbib having a chitty chat to the U.S. embassy.
R
As I keep saying, we don’t need Mr Rudd to reform. We need for him to be cured. What is truly fascinating in our social media world is how badly people remain informed about the real Mr Rudd.
gtard
march on, mon ami
ps get some sleep as well
😉
crikey,
Did you get your Pug?
Congratulations!
smithe
The article didn’t back up the headline. Clearly some editorial license was needed.
Diogenes
[I’m tempted to suggest that one interpretation of those polls is that the voting public haven’t been paying as much attention to the goings on of the last week as we have.
Surely that can’t be the case. ]
I am shocked and horrified that this may be so 😆
[Galaxy Poll shows Kevin Rudd is Labor’s only hope of winning]
Yes they’d love Abbott to face up to Rudd rather than JG. Rudd is now so tainted in msm ranks as a lying traitorous rat that he could be pulled apart during a campaign with ease.
JG is the one they worry about. She’s made of sterner stuff.
[Morgan 51.5-48.5 up 1.5
Galaxy 46-54 no change
Neilsen 47-53 up 1
Newspoll invalid as it polled 343 journalists and the 3 Rudds
where is this disaster for ALP we keep hearing about?]
Morgan was a face to face which has a bit of Labor bias.
The other two point to a Landslide about as big as 1996.
Rishane: thanks for posting that.
Again, everyone’s telling the same story and it isn’t flattering for Rudd.
As I have said before, all you have to do is look at the respective work histories of Rudd and Gillard.
Rudd: hated by colleagues
Gillard: respected by colleagues and universally liked.
People who worked 8+ hours a day with them both can’t all be wrong or can’t all be running agendas.
As the expression goes, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and sounds like a duck, it’s probably a duck.
On the balance of probability, Rudd’s not a nice bloke.
Newspoll could only find 346 Liberal voters at that time of polling .
Diogs,
As the site locum tonight, what medication would you prescribe for Rudd’s sociopahic disease?
David Marr is in love with Julia because she’s letting the boat people come to this country unhindered – that’s Marr’s cause in life – be kind to refugees.
The ABC really needs to stop using Marr on their programs, he’s becoming annoyingly predictable.
Could Tanner have been the one who wrote that ‘paper’ in Oakes article?
The first time i realised there was something not quite right with Kevin was when he refused K Keneally’s greeting. At the time we made excuses that he didn’t hear but really it was sociopathic behviour.
[Morgan was a face to face which has a bit of Labor bias.
The other two point to a Landslide about as big as 1996.]
20 months
[Kevin Rudd used to clean Laurie Oakes toilet. It seems that is the only job that Oakes thought Rudd did well.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/revealed-why-they-hate-kevin-rudd-so-much/story-fn56baaq-1226280973899%5D
Wowie wow wow wow!
Danny,
I thought you were going to say Rudd was quackers!
vitalise,
Not a pollie, an “insider”. Think COS or below.
jen,
I have this touch with women!
[The first time i realised there was something not quite right with Kevin was when he refused K Keneally’s greeting. At the time we made excuses that he didn’t hear but really it was sociopathic behviour.]
I remember that incident and yes, I agree with your assessment
Carney focuses on poor victim Rudd: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/never-anything-like-it-as-a-bitter-party-devours-itself-20120224-1tttj.html
All the shit being tossed at Rudd and yet he’s still preferred to Gillard by 2 to 1 – which proves that Swan and Burke and Roxon and the Gillard mafia here just shot the ALP in the foot while trying to take out Kevin. 🙂
evan,
Nothing like despicable playing the man tactics for those who you dsapprove about.
You really are a lonely goatherd.
Ducky regardless of the truth they nevertheless trashed the Rudd era. It’s hardly a good look as they were part of it and allowed it to happen. Obviously they were blinded by the polls during that period.
Thornleigh Labor Man – REALLY!!! I thought it was Rudd that changed the law and it was Gillard that attempted to re-instate off shore processing but was blocked by the Greens/Liberals better known as the odd couple party
o and something about the High Court of Australia
I do believe that neither Mr Faulkner nor Mr Tanner were great fans of Ms Gillard. Whether that means they rather appreciated Mr Rudd’s toxic management style I don’t know.
[Rishane: thanks for posting that.
Again, everyone’s telling the same story and it isn’t flattering for Rudd.
As I have said before, all you have to do is look at the respective work histories of Rudd and Gillard.
Rudd: hated by colleagues
Gillard: respected by colleagues and universally liked.
People who worked 8+ hours a day with them both can’t all be wrong or can’t all be running agendas.
As the expression goes, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and sounds like a duck, it’s probably a duck.
On the balance of probability, Rudd’s not a nice bloke.]
No problem! Just to expand on your point, its not just that Rudd’s ‘not a nice bloke’, its that from all evidence he has serious difficulties governing, and Gillard doesn’t. I think people would care less about him being an arsehole behind the scenes if he was an effective one.