Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader”

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  1. Alright Bludgers, enjoy your drama. I’m over it all personally. I’m off to bed now and probably won’t be back on the old Poll bludger for a few weeks.

    Here’s my advice:

  2. [By white elephant I should call it a glorified job seeking club.

    When Ms Rein runs a proper recruitment agency I will respect her achievements]

    It seems the example of spite, malice and bile set by Gillard and her team is rubbing off here.

  3. This little black duck
    [gusface,

    If all the 6.5s got together would there be gazillion stars?]
    The new metrics mean a gazillion is now called a brazillion.

  4. [Headline from the Hun

    Galaxy Poll shows Kevin Rudd is Labor’s only hope of winning

    Facepalm]

    Indeed, this everybody already knew. It isn’t news I guess.

  5. What has being LOTH got to do with anything? If Mr Rudd rolls Ms Gillard, the position of LOTH is up for grabs. It would probably go to Mr cheeseman for services rendered. Now that would strike terror into the black heart of Mr Pyne.

  6. After assuring us the other day that he was no Mother Theresa, Mr Rudd has now denied being ‘Captain Perfect.’

    Didn’t Kevvie mention “the Messiah” today?

    I’m beginning to detect a stream of unconsciousness there.

  7. [It seems the example of spite, malice and bile set by Gillard and her team is rubbing off here.]
    I\’m astonished that people would attack such a successful businesswoman who built a company from nothing and turned it into a multi-national.

    Oh, and she even votes Labor, so you\’d think that would at least score her a few brownie points.

  8. [I bet none of us could predict the Telegraph hyping Rudd… 😉 ]

    Like Alan Jones championing Gillard for PM.

    This is a farce, vaudeville. And the only person who brought this on now is one Kevin Rudd.

  9. [If all the 6.5s got together would there be gazillion stars?]

    I have often wondered that

    CERN did ask for us to assemble to power the LHC

    sadly we waz doing silly dance that weekend

  10. Thomas Paine – I don’t dislike Ms Rein but and I have said it here previously that I consider Job Services Australia to be a big con job that should be dismantled.

  11. [The implosion has already happened.]
    Issues will take over. It’s just a matter of time. At least the leadership issue will change in nature. Rudd has ruled himself out of any future challenge against Gillard and he’s on the backbench. I would have thought all the dirty shite each side has come up with is out there now. Can’t see why it wouldn’t be. So there’s no more damage to be done I would have thought re 2010. Gillard no longer feels restrained in explaining how it was back then. Messy but cleansing.

  12. Oh buy the way, where is the internal polling I wonder. The Gillard team would have shredded their by now, but wonder if the Rudd did any, or are doing some now.

  13. Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
    Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
    TP 187 (unconfirmed)
    rosemour 47
    Mod Lib 39
    shellbell 36
    BH + stanny 35
    p m z 34
    Andrew 33
    Super + vitalise + DavidWH + Mad cyril 32
    centre +Boerwar 31
    BK + mexicanbeemer 30
    Think Big 29
    muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
    Finn (waiting for offers)
    Diogenese 27. (suspiciously simpatico with flipper boy )
    Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
    Poroti 26
    It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
    AJ Canberra + TLBD +Lord Barry Bonkton 24
    imacca + smithe + Dr Fumbles McStupid 23
    Danny Lewis 22
    fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon +Gorgeous Dunny 21
    Jaeger 20
    Last name red wombat 19
    Guface 18
    kezza2 17
    Ctar 10
    canasta76 3
    deflationite (a very brave) -13
    Oakeshott Country + jenauthor + JohD Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.

  14. [If he gets 40 then Gillard will struggle to last to the budget.]
    Why? Rudd has said he won’t challenge. Explain how that change of leadership will occur.

  15. [Didn’t Kevvie mention “the Messiah” today?

    I’m beginning to detect a stream of unconsciousness there.]

    No, he said he was the anti christ, or son of Satan, or at the very least the grandson of Satan, according to factional representatives.

  16. [Like Alan Jones championing Gillard for PM.

    This is a farce, vaudeville. And the only person who brought this on now is one Kevin Rudd.]

    It is. I see its just been linked, but Oakes’ article is really worth reading.

  17. This little black duck
    [poroti,

    I understand that “Brazilian” is a bit of an infra dig word.]
    Brazillian may be but brazillion is the new gazillion.

  18. Gary yes Kevin has ruled another challenge but don’t take that seriously for he doesn’t want to give the waverers an out to vote for Jules

  19. Julia’s going to win and Kevin is going to the backbench, so the Gillard mafia on PB can rest easy – your work is done.
    Perhaps you can now starting laying off the personal attacks on Kevin Rudd, his wife, Bruce Hawker, any cabinet ministers who aren’t backing Julia, and people on this forum who express an opinion that doesn’t equate with the “Julia is wonderful/Kevin is the antichrist” mantra.
    Alas for you folks, Gillard is terminal anyway, and her lieutenants Swan and Crean and Emerson have harmed the Labor cause even more through the hand grenading of Mr Rudd.
    Tony Abbott is the real winner, Julia is wounded, and Rudd ain’t going to give you all the satisfaction of crawling into a hole & dying.

  20. [Oh buy the way, where is the internal polling I wonder. The Gillard team would have shredded their by now, but wonder if the Rudd did any, or are doing some now.]

    The only poll that matter (in the next 20 months) is Monday’s leadership poll.

  21. [Oh buy the way, where is the internal polling I wonder. The Gillard team would have shredded their by now, but wonder if the Rudd did any, or are doing some now.]
    Yes that is an interesting point.

    I was thinking if the federal government service that monitors talk back was in operation.

    Because if that was done, you can be sure that more callers would be supporting Rudd than Gillard.

  22. [Julia’s going to win and Kevin is going to the backbench, so the Gillard mafia on PB can rest easy – your work is done.]

    Finally the penny has dropped.

  23. [Alas for you folks, Gillard is terminal anyway, and her lieutenants Swan and Crean and Emerson have harmed the Labor cause even more through the hand grenading of Mr Rudd.]

    Its going to be damn hard, but I wouldn’t entirely rule her out just yet. Though I imagine Rudd is going to do whatever he can (as he has been) to try and prevent her getting the vaunted ‘clear air’.

  24. Gary and Gus:

    I hate to break this to you but the Liberal party will be hounding the ALP with this saga for the next decade.

    Political ads with
    1. nothing but ALP talking about other ALP in disparaging terms
    2. videos of Latham and then Rudd descriptions by their colleagues followed by the message “They told you to make him PM, but this is what they really thought about him….can you trust what they say now about x?”
    3. Gillard’s judgement: she was the one who argued for shelving CPRS and then boasts about carbon tax (which she said would never happen under her government)
    4. Gillard’s judgement: she thought this about Rudd but decided he was the best person to represent Australia internationally
    5. Lyons saying “Gillard has a credibility problem”

    …and all of that is just off the top of my head- and I am a medic. Just imagine when the Libs get their rich Ad execs onto this stuff!!!

    You guys are screwed for years…

  25. [Rudd can in effect take over from Faulkner as the moral conscience of the Australian Labor Party – ]

    Moral conscience — after tonight’s revelations on lateline … you have to be kidding me!

  26. [Gary yes Kevin has ruled another challenge but don’t take that seriously for he doesn’t want to give the waverers an out to vote for Jules]
    Kev has to take it seriously. His reputation for speaking the truth is at stake. What is the difference between the “No carbon tax” comment and “I will not challenge Julia Gillard again”?

  27. Tom Hawkins: I’m a realist, the fix is in, the union heavies are running things, like always.
    A shame Labor in the 21st Century won’t be reformed under the leadership of Ms Gillard.
    A woman beholden to scum like Farrell & Feeney & Arbib – no thanks, I’ll pass on that one.

  28. An extraordinary week. I still have trouble believing what happened. Senior ministers trashing a government they were part of and the PM and ex-PM in open warfare.

    Regarding tonight’s poll results. They are basically telling us what we already knew, more or less. More people prefer the ex-PM than the current PM. Not surprising given that many people still believe Gillard broke a core promise with the carbon tax. Added to that is the white-anting Gillard has been suffering from within her own party.

    It shouldn’t be all doom and gloom for Labor if both Nielsen and NewsPoll reflect a similar Labor primary vote as reported by Galaxy. It was a good effort to hold their primary vote given the week we have just seen. I thought Labor would give at least two points back to the Coalition.

    So a bad week for Labor but not as bad as it could have been depending on the rest of the party polling yet to be released.

  29. [Rudd can in effect take over from Faulkner as the moral conscience of the Australian Labor Party]

    Rudd isn’t fit to clean Faulkner’s boots

  30. [Julia’s going to win and Kevin is going to the backbench, so the Gillard mafia on PB can rest easy – your work is done.]
    Fuack me !! PB bloviation is dat powerful !!! Wilbo needs to up his rates.

  31. Mod Lib – I agree that in the short term you are correct but only five years ago we saw leadership tensions within the Liberal Party and even as late as 2010/11 their has been talk of Turnbull challenging.

    Like most things it is a one term issue, maybe two terms if it continues

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