Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader”

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  1. [Rudd can in effect take over from Faulkner as the moral conscience of the Australian Labor Party – it won’t be Simon Crean, who has pretty much trashed himself this week.]

    Labor has no hope if Rudd is their moral conscience. For all his sanctimonious ranting he has a lot of nerve.

  2. CTar1,

    Thomas – You really should go off and talk to a better class of people.

    He already is, right here!

    There must be a Jane Turner in that one, somewhere.

  3. [Rudd can in effect take over from Faulkner as the moral conscience of the Australian Labor Party – it won’t be Simon Crean, who has pretty much trashed himself this week.
    As for the biggest dolt of them all, Wayne Swan, he handed Tony Abbott a load of amunition to hurl at Labor next week in parliament.]
    That will last one day, then what?

  11. [Pity poor Anna Bligh: she’ll be saddled with Gillard and Swan for the QLD election.]
    I’m sure Rudd would have got her over the line. LOL.

  12. so the cohort chasers is to round up the demographics – tonights results might be the stay at home, landline owning, over 55 Queenslanders – 346 voters FFS.

    And Newspoll claims to be the best regarded? Big Fail tonight.

  13. [Yes, in fact the longer Gillard remains leader the more frustrated they will get, which means a higher Green vote, and some preferences leaking to the Coalition.

    So I expect the polls to get worse for Gillard.]

    The behaviour of the factional mafia representatives in smearing Rudd as much as humanly possible, and even Gillard stooping down to the same lower levels has really hurt them badly.

    Gillard must getting close to the level of Labor poison soon. She better make sure that the ballot on Monday is a ‘true’ secret ballot, or imagine Gillard Labor’s stakes falling to 20% when the public find it was a factional managed ballot.

    I expect the thugs want to replace Gillard Monday, but with Rudd in the picture they worry of him winning if it were a three way contest. So they will be stuck with this massive albatros as Labor leader.

    Wonder what the effect on the public will be when Rudd is rolled.

    So the tactic of going the low road has really finished Labor.

  14. [Boerwar
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 11:50 pm | Permalink
    ML

    So when are you guys going to excise your sociopath?]

    The sooner the better.

    In fact I suspect there would be some talking about it right now, because with the ALP implosion, there is likely to be a surge in Coalition support and then it will be so much harder to do…

    Could be the last chance for some time (until Abbott implodes himself, but the wait for that to happen has spanned many years now).

  16. Thornleigh Labor Man – Thanks to Kevin – Ms Bligh has seen her first week smashed by a dummy spit because the PM was not mature enough to wait until after the state campaign.

  17. [Remember this vote is for PM and not president.]

    Actually this ballot is for the leader of the Labor party, and as Labor happen to be in govt, the result will determine who is PM.

    I said before I’d like to see the PM use the language of Labor leader more than that of PM.

  26. Thornleigh Labor Man

    [Pity poor Anna Bligh: she’ll be saddled with Gillard and Swan for the QLD election.]
    Pity poor Anna Bligh who has an electorate who is second only to the Northern Territory for parochialism. Lived in and loved both places but boy do they have a thang about bloody southerners.

  27. I might do a random dialup of, say, 400 peeps and ask them some questions. You’d be surprised at the result!

    Heck, I don’t even need to ring anyone!

  31. [centaur009
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 11:53 pm | Permalink
    Please include me in the sweepstakes I said 39-43 two days ago, split the difference and put me down for 41]

    So no change in the last day centaur009?

    Am I right in thinking you are one of those 41?

  32. [In fact I suspect there would be some talking about it right now, because with the ALP implosion, there is likely to be a surge in Coalition support and then it will be so much harder to do…]
    Next week will not see an implosion, unless Rudd wins and that won’t happen. Life will go on and government will go on.

  34. [As for the biggest dolt of them all, Wayne Swan, he handed Tony Abbott a load of amunition to hurl at Labor next week in parliament. :)]
    Yes the person who comes out of this the worst is Wayne Swan.

    Swan seemed to be completely panicking because he suddenly realised that if Gillard lost then that would end his time as Treasurer.

  38. [Next week will not see an implosion]

    The implosion has already happened. You cannot reverse it, you can only mop up the mess and pretend everything is dandy…but no-one will believe it.

  39. After assuring us the other day that he was no Mother Theresa, Mr Rudd has now denied being ‘Captain Perfect.’

    Who is the smartarse who accused Mr Rudd of being ‘Captain Perfect?’

    Was it TP?

  45. The Liberal trolls are still lying about the nature of the ballot on Monday. They have no evidence to support your allegations and mis-truths. It will be a secret ballot just as the previous 5 have been.
    It is a bit of a mystery why they are so concerned about Julia winning since according to them she will lose the election. Why would you want Rudd to win when you believe the polls that he would thrash Abbott? That’s why they are trolls.

  47. centaur:

    I am partly relying on your confidence for my 39 (would have gone with about 35 otherwise), so you better deliver!

    The idea of gloating, particularly with Centre who thought my prediction was idiotic, is too sweet to miss out on!!!!

  48. [ CTar1
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 11:28 pm | Permalink
    TLM – She did industrial law.

    She won’t represent herself.]

    Re Cherie Blair, there’s also an old Lawyer’s saying: A man who represents himself has a fool for a client.

    Dead right, too.

    Your Counsel can say things about you in a Court that you just can’t (not without sounding like an up-yourself turnip, anyway).

    You don’t believe me?

    Try standing-up and saying this about yourself with a straight face, then: “I’m a fine upstanding gentleman, a pillar ofthe community universally liked amongst those I work and socialise with….”

    Even if you manage it, you’ll sound like an arskhole.

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