Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader”

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  1. Let me see: Therese Rein runs a multi-million dollar international company.
    But she’s obviously got no brains because she’s supporting her husband – you gotta love the logic of the Rudd haters.

  2. Why are we getting these polls on a Friday night rather than a Sunday night?

    Strange.

    For maximum explosive impact (58 hours till high noon). Pity for those who stagedcommissioned the polls that there was no HE, just damp squibs.

  3. [Newspoll’s sample was apparently 346

    Is this true?

    Why the rush to early release of polling?]

    Gee Fess, have you not heard of #RegimeChange?

  4. [I do. Rudd has said he will not challenge Gillard again. The moment he does he comes a liar as well. He loses the moral authority he likes to portray now.]

    He wont challenge Gillard, but he might get drafted.

  5. [Finns, funny that PVO didnt point out that that newspoll result is BETTER for Gillard than September 2011.]

    Andrew, i pointed out many things to PvO, he banned me and unfollowed me (because he wanted to send me DM previously)

  6. Thornleigh Labor Man

    [Let me see: Therese Rein runs a multi-million dollar international company.
    But she’s obviously got no brains because she’s supporting her husband ]
    As they say “Love is blind”

  7. By white elephant I should call it a glorified job seeking club.

    When Ms Rein runs a proper recruitment agency I will respect her achievements

  8. [So around 30/53 to Rudd. That is pretty clear that Gillard has zero chance of winning back former Labor voters from the Libs but Rudd does have a reasonable chance.]
    Yes, in fact the longer Gillard remains leader the more frustrated they will get, which means a higher Green vote, and some preferences leaking to the Coalition.

    So I expect the polls to get worse for Gillard.

  9. Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
    Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
    TP 187 (unconfirmed)
    rosemour 47
    Mod Lib 39
    shellbell 36
    BH 35
    p m z 34
    Andrew 33
    Super + vitalise + DavidWH + Mad cyril 32
    centre +Boerwar 31
    BK + mexicanbeemer 30
    Think Big 29
    muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
    Finn (waiting for offers)
    Diogenese 27. (suspiciously simpatico with flipper boy )
    Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
    Poroti 26
    It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
    AJ Canberra + TLBD +Lord Barry Bonkton 24
    imacca + smithe + Dr Fumbles McStupid 23
    Danny Lewis 22
    fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon +Gorgeous Dunny 21
    Jaeger 20
    Last name red wombat 19
    Guface 18
    kezza2 17
    Ctar 10
    canasta76 3
    deflationite (a very brave) -13
    Oakeshott Country + jenauthor + JohD Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.

  10. Yeah guys, I get the whole commercial competition thing.

    But for Newspoll to release poll results with only 346 respondents? O’Shannessy must be appalled.

    On Sky during the week he was asked about the questions for this Newspoll, to which he replied that “Chris Mitchell would kill me” if he said.

    346 respondents. It’s a joke.

  11. Possum Comitatus ‏ @Pollytics
    Reply RetweetedRetweet
    Delete
    FavoritedFavorite · Close Open Details Newspoll data tonight is just tonight’s results -ball park, but also have Saturday’s results plus Sunday cohort chasers for full poll on Mon

    even poss knows

    👿

    but the result will be out 11pm sunday

    btw i tweeted poss

    @Pollytics poss 11pm sunday is what i was told- btw is a “rolling” poll valid?

    I await his reply

  12. [Let me see: Therese Rein runs a multi-million dollar international company.
    But she’s obviously got no brains because she’s supporting her husband – you gotta love the logic of the Rudd haters.]

    Evan2GB, Mrs. Rudd has got the brain alright. It is you who has no brain.

    I didnt attack her for supporting her husband.

    I attacked her for active and directly campaigning for her husband and trying to influence the Caucus vote.

  13. Three polls all showing essentially the same thing and the same thing they have shown when asking the Gillard vs. Rudd question previously as well and you question the latest edition of the third poll based on the numbers?

    What about all the other polls showing the same thing- what excuse for ignoring them?

  14. [So around 30/53 to Rudd. That is pretty clear that Gillard has zero chance of winning back former Labor voters from the Libs but Rudd does have a reasonable chance.]

    Stupid rationale TP

    If asked, do you prefer chocolate or truffles, you have to pick one, even if you like or hate both. If only one option on ALP side v Lib — you pick ALP.

  15. Wonder if they are still polling and these are interim figures.

    I would assume that they Fairfax? will also produce new polling Sunday for dramatic effect. And maybe Morgan doing some phone polling maybe.

    Gillard will be hoping phone lines and the internet go down.

  16. Thomas Paine: It’s more likely, I think, that Shorten will knife Gillard a few months before the next election.
    Kevin can go to the backbench, be the elder statesman of the ALP, mentor younger MPs, give speeches on various things, do lots of stuff in his electorate, take up a cause or two, keep up his media profile etc

  17. [He wont challenge Gillard, but he might get drafted.]
    Well getting drafted would mean Gillard resigning of her own accord first. This puts her departure in her hands basically.

  18. [I do. Rudd has said he will not challenge Gillard again. The moment he does he comes a liar as well. He loses the moral authority he likes to portray now.]

    I would agree the moral authority takes a dent.

    He won’t lose it all though, this is a death struggle and he’ll give up a little bit of moral authority easily.

  19. [Stupid rationale TP

    If asked, do you prefer chocolate or truffles, you have to pick one, even if you like or hate both. If only one option on ALP side v Lib — you pick ALP.]
    Excuse me, this is kind of silly because someone can say \”neither\” and that will be recorded as such That\’s why the figures don\’t add up to 100%.

  20. [Therese Rein runs a multi-million dollar international company.
    But she’s obviously got no brains because she’s supporting her husband ]

    Do you get your misogyny from Rudd? Or do you think this stuff up all on your own?

    Again: please do not try to take the high moral ground here after your appalling sexist remarks in a public forum about our PM.

  21. TP

    In your opinion, is Mr Rudd a sociopath? Do you agree with his earlier view that AGW is the most important moral issue for our times or do you agree with his decision to do nothing about it before actively undermining a government led by a certain bitch that was actually trying to do something about AGW?

  22. Roling polls are not exactly scientific but as they are updated they get better in terms of precision as the sample gets larger and odd responses are identified and editied.

    Of course anyone who takes the early figues as gospel truth is not very smart. Like calling an election with 1.5 per cent counted.

  23. Point about naming the journalists Dio is that it gives caucus members substantive evidence that Rudd has been whitanting the government.
    Remember this vote is for PM and not president. The naming of the journalists will have no effect on the public but will be very upsetting for caucus members.

  24. [the smearing a bile to Rudd still continues here even though you now have proof the slagging Rudd just turns everybody off, and it reflects on you more than anybody.]

    Thomas – You really should go off and talk to a better class of people.

  25. [I would agree the moral authority takes a dent.

    He won’t lose it all though, this is a death struggle and he’ll give up a little bit of moral authority easily.]
    This is just silly. Rudd won\’t NEED to challenge Gillard again because she will resign when she finally realises that she can\’t win the next election. THere will then be a leadership contest between Rudd and someone else which I think Rudd will narrowly win.

    I expect Gillard to resign about 6 months from now, on a Sunday.

  26. Rudd can in effect take over from Faulkner as the moral conscience of the Australian Labor Party – it won’t be Simon Crean, who has pretty much trashed himself this week.
    As for the biggest dolt of them all, Wayne Swan, he handed Tony Abbott a load of amunition to hurl at Labor next week in parliament. 🙂

  27. Is there any chance of bringing back Senator Jim mackernan to do the announcement on Monday. I always loved his work in the keating era.

    Maybe as a twist we could have caucus wear bandanas and have a torch procession survivor style. I guess there’s always dreamworld on the gold coast if we want to take up Julia’s comments

    The tribe has spoken.

  28. Is there any chance of bringing back Senator Jim mackernan to do the announcement on Monday. I always loved his work in the keating era.

    Maybe as a twist we could have caucus wear bandanas and have a torch procession survivor style. I guess there’s always dreamworld on the gold coast if we want to take up Julia’s comments

    The tribe has spoken.

  29. [Thomas Paine: It’s more likely, I think, that Shorten will knife Gillard a few months before the next election.]
    The question is will this prediction be more accurate than this one?
    [Thornleigh Labor Man
    Posted Tuesday, October 25, 2011 at 11:53 pm | Permalink
    There’ll be no challenge to Julia before the next election, Kevin will be a content Foreign Minister.]

  30. Greensborough Growler

    [Diogs,

    You are always average]
    Diogs is more “the mean” 😆 When he is not “the mode’ .It’s a stats thang.

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