Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy and Nielsen have dipped toes into the murky polling waters, the former with a complete set of results and the latter with numbers on preferred Labor leader. Galaxy’s poll was conducted yesterday and today, and the voting intention figures are essentially unchanged on the previous poll four weeks ago: the Coalition two-party preferred lead is unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor (unchanged), 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one) and 12 per cent for the Greens (unchanged). Interestingly, a question on voting intention if Kevin Rudd were Labor leader has produced far less dramatic results than when Nielsen conducted a similar exercise last September. The Coalition lead would narrow to 51-49, a three-point improvement in Labor’s position rather than the 10-point improvement in Nielsen.

On preferred Labor leader, Nielsen has it at 58-34 in Rudd’s favour (it was 57-35 at the poll a fortnight ago) compared with 52-26 from Galaxy (52-30 a month ago), suggesting the two were doing different things with respect to allocating respondents to the undecided category. Galaxy’s result points to a dramatic swing in favour of Rudd among Labor supporters, from 49-48 in Gillard’s favour a month ago to 53-39 in Rudd’s favour now. That the shift among all voters is less dramatic presumably suggests that support for Rudd among Coalition supporters has dropped.

The Galaxy poll also finds that 57 per cent believe the independents should force an early election if Rudd becomes leader, but it is not clear how many would prefer that in any case. Full tables from Galaxy here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

670 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition; Nielsen on preferred Labor leader”

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  1. [Very very different from Rudd now]

    I agree Andrew, I see no reason why Rudd will stop at 2 challenges.

    A third challenge may be in his instructions from Bejing

  2. Boerwar,

    I salute you for your fortitude in pressing ahead with your belief that Mr Rudd was doing the dirty.

    I had my doubts but over the past few weeks have come to accept the fact.

    cheers.

  3. [There are 18 months to go, something that makes you Liberals choke on your bile. Let’s just see what happens. What those lines on the graph show and history tells us is that things happen and trends reverse.]

    PJK:

    I suggest you have a look at that page again, with both the 1996-2007 trend and the current 2007-2012 trend graphs visible on the same page.

    The Coalition TPP oscillated around the 50 equipoise throughout the Howard government

    The Coalition TPP trend average has sat constantly at 52 trending up to 58 and now settling at 54.

    There is a very clear message there if you want to listen to it.

    Check out the polling before the NSW election- guess what, once the voters decide, they decide.

  4. I’m not sure Cherie Blair is a lot better than Murdoch.

    We are not about to applaud either: just to see Roo get the spit inserted a little bit further.

  5. Diogenes
    [I’m not sure Cherie Blair is a lot better than Murdoch.]
    Dead right and her husband Tony Blah deserves his own circle in hell.

  6. If Gillard wins on Monday as I think she will based on reports of numbers, I think she needs a clear out of her office and in particular whoever is advising her. She talks of not being poll driven etc like messrs rudd yet her presentation is focused on delivering so called key lines to the point of nausea…. The problem for gillard is she does it badly and is totally unbelievable hence adding to the negative public perception.

    It’s a shame that someone who has actually held a minority government together and delivered some good policy outcomes still follows a media / communications strategy that seems to just reinforce all the reasons why a large portion of the general public don’t like her.

  7. Diogenes: Murdoch is godfather to one of the Blair kids – Tony and Alistair Campbell shamelessly cowtowed to Rupert during the years of the Blair Prime Ministership.

  8. @PJK

    Too right, if we decided policy and who the PM was based on opion polls and focus groups the Government could be in a right mess!

  9. [she did not just “expressing” her belief. She was actively urging and campaigning on his behalf. That’s a BIG difference. ]
    Why not?

    Why should\’ve interested voters contact their MPs and express an opinion on who they should support?

    In fact, why isn\’t the Labor leadership more directly determined by Labor members as well as Labor MPs?

    This is an interesting discussion that should be had.

    Have a look at the U.S. system and how they choose party candidates / leaders.

    What is wrong with having more participation in democracy?

    It\’s not like Therese Rein gets a vote on Monday, but I am astonished that anything she has done could be considered inappropriate.

  10. OC

    [Well all those polls will have zero effect on caucus.
    I suspect a bigger effect will come from the naming of the 4 journalists]

    I agree with the first comment but not the second. Two have been named and no-one gave a stuff about them. I can’t see why naming the other two will be any more interesting.

  11. [Diogenes
    Posted Friday, February 24, 2012 at 11:24 pm | Permalink
    Interesting coincidence.

    John Wilkes Booth frequented the Willard Hotel, the same establishment Rudd was staying at in Washington this week.]
    Sometimes,
    you are such a KNOB.

    I can’t believe I let you redeem yourself.

    Must be something to do with how far removed from reality you actually are. *shakes head*

  12. Current Kevenge vote sweepstakes are;
    Greentard 1 brazillion (unconfirmed)
    TP 187 (unconfirmed)
    rosemour 47
    Mod Lib 39
    shellbell 36
    BH 35
    p m z 34
    Andrew 33
    Super + vitalise + DavidWH + Mad cyril 32
    centre +Boerwar 31
    BK + mexicanbeemer 30
    Think Big 29
    muttleymcgee + zoidlord 28
    Finn (waiting for offers)
    Diogenese 27. (suspiciously simpatico with flipper boy )
    Tricot + confessions + Bushfire Bill + Boinzo 27
    Poroti 26
    It’s Time + Dan Gulberry + Aguirre 25
    AJ Canberra + TLBD +Lord Barry Bonkton 24
    imacca + smithe + Dr Fumbles McStupid 23
    Danny Lewis 22
    fredn + Puff, the Magic Dragon +Gorgeous Dunny 21
    Jaeger 20
    Last name red wombat 19
    Guface 18
    kezza2 17
    Ctar 10
    canasta76 3
    deflationite (a very brave) -13
    Oakeshott Country + jenauthor Team Rudd default – 1 brazillion.

  13. Personally I don’t care that Rein and Jess Rudd are campaigning on behalf of their husband/father. They are entitled to do so, even if it looks odd or slightly American.

    It just allows people to legitimately draw comparisons between Rein and the backroom shenanigans by Janette Howard, and allows me to point out that Rudd’s only public spruikers are currently outside parliament: his family, Bruce Hawker, and the media.

  14. Most disgusting to finally find out that Rudd’s foul mouth wasn’t just frustrated expletives, but personal and misogynistic abuse.

    Totally unacceptable and explains why he is despised by most of his colleagues.

    Who can forget that poor RAAF stewardess? I thought it was a beat up at the time, but it now fits.

    Boganville? Seriously? Mr Rudd must have been bullied as a child to resort to such childish snobbish rubbish as an adult and member of Cabinet.

    All because Julia Gillard doesn’t do programatic specificity? Rudd truly thinks he is the best among us.

    Don’t cry for Rudd, he’s already dead and come back from heaven…….

  15. [The pollsters have really shot themselves in the foot this time. 3 Polls, even PvO was confused as what to say on #Slynews]
    Err, what do you mean?

    They all show the same thing. Kevin Rudd is more popular as Labor leader than Julia Gillard, and as more popular as preffered PM than both Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard.

    Sure, the polls don\’t tell us anything new, but they just reinforce the fact that the factional hack agents in Labor are about to endorse a leader who is generally unpopular in the electorate at large, and even amongst Labor voters.

  16. Pollsters have been very very quick off the mark, 2 days max to call/analyse and get in the papers? I wonder if this impacts on the precision of the polls, i.e sample size..

  17. [GhostWhoVotes ‏
    #Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 41 Rudd 58
    #Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader (All Voters): Gillard 30 Rudd 53]

    So Rudds support is HIGHER with ALP voters than Liberal voters????

    Huh?

  18. [It just allows people to legitimately draw comparisons between Rein and the backroom shenanigans by Janette Howard, and allows me to point out that Rudd’s only public spruikers are currently outside parliament: his family, Bruce Hawker, and the media.]
    Even by the standards of this forum this is an astonishingly vitriolic attack on a great Australian businesswoman.

  19. Who said this:

    [Bludgers your naivete on this leadership issue truly amazes me. Some of you still think that because an MP makes some generic “The Prime Minister has my full support” statement that it actually means something.

    Some of you have slipped back into the fantasy land of thinking the whole thing is a media plot. Others of you think it is over. It is best to think of what is happening now as the proverbial swan on the water – above the surface everything appears calm and serene, but underneath the feet are kicking madly.

    There is a lot happening, wheels within wheels, plots within plots. It is not anywhere near as simple as “Julia has X voted and Kevin has Y votes”. They may say that Julia has sixty-odd votes and it may be true … until suddenly she doesn’t. Things can happen (and are happening) extremely fast.

    My read of the situation is still that Gillard is stuffed, and its just a matter of time until the ALP comes to that same conclusion and then decides whether to bring back Kevin or go for a fresh face.]

  20. The date: Monday 27/02/2012
    The time: 11AM
    The scene: Tone’s office

    “Peta, the FRHB is coming after me! What am I gonna do?!”

  21. Darren I suspect Rudd (I believe he lost a parent at a young age) is the sort of kid that wasn’t good at sport therefore spent much time in his own world and what sometimes happens when kids like that enter the adult world they struggle to adapt to accepting of other people and this is borne out is frustration at people that don’t jump when asked

  22. Like anything to do with Kevenge, the PB poll is flawed.

    What about the Labor MHR who is on maternity leave. What about the equivocators who put Tony Abbott.

    Needs broadening. We need Gillard’s numbers plus all the variations if ther is to be a proper poll.

  23. agree with gusface #82, thats reprehensible US style crap from “Billie”. Disgraceful. Dont come back “Billie” whatever you are, you disgrace us all. Pig.

  24. I think that the next 6 months will prove that exiling Rudd to the outer reaches of the backbench won’t be the panacea for the Gillard administration that her supporters in caucus and her fanclub here are expecting.
    As Rudd pointed out today, he had no input into things like the East Timor Solution and the Malaysian Solution – initiatives with Julia Gillard’s fingerprints all over them.
    Julia undoubtably does well with the trade union base of the ALP, but she really can’t reach out to middle class people and small L Liberals.
    You win elections in Australia from the middle ground.

  25. @Mod Lib

    And JG support is lower as well, dont know how they have done it, perhaps total voters has a bunch of no response/neither lowering both totals.

  26. Thornleigh Labor Man
    [Diogenes: Murdoch is godfather to one of the Blair kids – Tony and Alistair Campbell shamelessly cowtowed to Rupert during the years of the Blair Prime Ministership.]
    During the years ? Mate he bowed down and kissed the feet of Rupert before that. On a bright note he grovelled in Australia 🙁 .From 1998.
    [IN JULY 1995, Tony Blair flew halfway round the world to cement his relationship with Rupert Murdoch at a News Corporation conference. Introducing him, the media tycoon joked: “If the British press is to be believed, today is all part of a Blair-Murdoch flirtation. If that flirtation is ever consummated, Tony, I suspect we will end up making love like two porcupines – very carefully.”
    For Mr Blair, the relationship bore fruit when he was elected with the key support of the Sun]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/murdochs-courtship-of-blair-finally-pays-off-1144087.html

  27. gee only 346. come on Newspoll in the past week I have spoken to more than that many people.

    most start yawning when Canberra is mentioned.

    I think this much mean that the ALP should go with someone called Yawn

  28. Please put me down for (0) zero votes for Rudd because he won’t challenge when the final number gets tallied before Monday 10AM. They will find that even the declared 17 would have shrunk or are not assured. Better to be thought of as a fool, than to prove it.

    The reason it will shrink is because his narrative has ‘internal inconsistencies’, to quote Gillard. His platform is essentially to promise further destabilization and turmoil, if you cut through all the tea-party populist crap. Totally unsustainable and unsaleable.

    So put me down for Zero for refusing to enter the starting gates.

  29. [why are we getting these polls on a Friday night rather than a Sunday night?

    Strange.]

    well there are 2 days to go so a bit of ammo for lobbying but not as if the media would think they had any influence at all

    It will all be up to Kev ‘Peoples Poet’ Rudd

  30. [I agree Andrew, I see no reason why Rudd will stop at 2 challenges.]
    I do. Rudd has said he will not challenge Gillard again. The moment he does he comes a liar as well. He loses the moral authority he likes to portray now.

  31. God, the smearing a bile to Rudd still continues here even though you now have proof the slagging Rudd just turns everybody off, and it reflects on you more than anybody.

    Gillard and co slagging the hell out of Rudd, in extreme ways, just made people view them with contempt. Maybe they were successful in some way, maybe Rudd’s figures over Gillard would have been 70/30.

    It is interesting buy I gather changes in personal approval ratings and preferred leader type figures preceed changes in primary and TPP. Meaning that in a week or two Gillard’s TPP figures are going to decline, and that will probably accelerate once Labor supporters choice Rudd is rolled.

    So they will roll Rudd, Gillard already has dismal figures, and then one or two weeks dismal will turn into horror.

  32. Finns, funny that PVO didnt point out that that newspoll result is BETTER for Gillard than September 2011.

    will the OO point this out?

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