Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match

The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.

Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.

Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).

Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).

Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).

Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).

Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).

Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).

Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).

Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).

Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).

Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).

If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).

• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.

• Joanna Gash, who has held the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore for the Liberals since 1996, announced last month that she would not seek another term. She plans to move her political career down a notch by running in the direct election for mayor of Shoalhaven in September, which will not require her to resign her seat in parliament (UPDATE: A reader points out that the O’Farrell government is planning to change this, and that there is a strong chance it will do so before September.) Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her as Liberal candidate is local deputy mayor Andrew Guile, a former staffer to Gash who has since fallen out with her. Salusinszky reports Guile is an ally of state Kiama MP Gareth Ward, “a member of the party’s Left faction who is influential in local branches”. Clive Brooks, owner of South Nowra business Great Southern Motorcycles and reportedly an ally of Gash, has also been mentioned as a possible contender, as have “conservative pastor Peter Pilt and former 2007 state election candidate Ann Sudmalis” (by Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury).

• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday will see incumbent Louise Markus challenged by aged-care lobbyist Charles Wurf in Macquarie. According to Imre Salusinszky in The Australian, local observers consider the contest too close to call: “A defeat of Ms Markus would be a stick in the eye to federal leader Tony Abbott, who backs sitting MPs, and to the state party machine, which does not wish to devote precious campaign resources to marketing an unknown in the ultra-marginal seat.”

• In Eden-Monaro, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Hendy is reckoned likely to win Liberal endorsement.

• Andrew Southcott, the Liberal member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby, is being challenged for preselection by Chris Moriarty, former state party president and operator of an export manufacturing firm. Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports Moriarty is a close ally of former state Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith. Also challenging is Mark Nankivell, whom Wills rates as “little known” but rumoured to be supported by another former state leader, Iain Evans. Southcott’s lax fund-raising efforts are said to have angered many in the party.

• Also under challenge is Patrick Secker in the rural South Australian seat of Barker. He faces rivals in the shape of Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin and Millicent real estate agent and Wattle Range councillor Ben Treloar, but Daniel Wills reports he is expected to prevail.

• New Zealand is conducting a review into its mixed member proportional electoral system, which received a strong endorsement from voters at a referendum held in conjunction with the November election. The main concern to have emerged is that candidates can run both in constituencies and as part of the party lists which are used to top up parties’ representation so that their parliamentary numbers are proportional to the votes cast. The most frequently cited anomaly here relates to the Auckland electorate of Epsom, which has been held since 2005 by Rodney Hine of the free-market Act New Zealand party. The National Party has an interest in the seat remaining in the Act New Zealand fold, as the party is its natural coalition partner and success in a constituency seat entitles it to a share of seats proportional to its vote (a failure to do so would require them to clear a 5 per cent national vote threshold). To this end it has formed the habit of running a candidate in the seat who is also given an unloseable position on the party list, so supporters can be reassured that he will have a seat even if he loses in Epsom. One possibility is that the problem might be lessened by lowering the threshold to 4 per cent, which is what the original royal commission into the electoral system recommended before MMP was introduced in 1996.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,095 comments on “Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match”

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  1. [ Mental health expert John Mendoza tells Adelaide radio he diagnoses Kevin Rudd as a sociopath

    Assessment conducted via media commentary – not very scientific.]

    No. Mendoza used to work in Rudd’s office and quit in disgust. This is the first day he’s gone on the record as to why.

  2. [Is the ALP likely to disendorse Rudd?

    Wht would be the consequences of that?]

    Well since the Gillard camp has made this so extremely vitriolic and personal against Rudd you might think that if Rudd walks there will be those that follow him.

    This is the stupidity of the power brokers thuggish attempts to protect themselves against Rudd, they have made it so that some might think it is worth staying with them after this if they ultimately prevails, or Rudd walks.

  3. In Rudd’s world the next best thing to being PM is for everyone to be talking about him. He’d love this to be going on for years. Fortunately his days as a globe trotting FM or PM are gone. His wife can support a globe trotting lifestyle if that’s what he want but there’ll be no more meetings with Presidents or Prime Ministers or Sec of State. He’ll simply be just another tourist. That must hurt.

  4. Funny that I didnt think that anyone could get lower than the wingnutt,obviously I was wrong Rudd has been able to plumb new depths.

  5. Just when a so called Deal had been agreed –

    Troika Demands 38 New Changes in Greek Tax, Spending and Wage Policies in Next 6 Days

    The hit parade of demands on Greece keeps right on marching. The Troika has 38 new demands in addition to 10 pages of prior demands that have not been met.

    The ten-page list of prior demands need to be met by the end of the month. Fortunately this is leap year so Greece gets an extra day.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/troika-demands-38-new-changes-in-greek.html

  6. Andrew Probyn today:

    [No one does victimhood like Kevin Rudd. Forget the fact he’s the bloke who calls the Prime Minister “the bitch” – or worse – behind her back, to senior figures in industry, to newspaper editors and to members of the Press Gallery.

    Forget the fact that he’s lying when he denies briefing journalists a fortnight ago about a two-step challenge to Julia Gillard.

    And disregard the fact that his campaign to destabilise and usurp the PM began many months ago.

    No, Kevin’s the victim here. He’s the People’s Prince, Saint Kevin the Wrongly Maligned.

    Give us a break.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/andrewprobyn/post/205/comment/1

    Rudd seems worse than Abbott. At least Abbott doesn’t pretend to be some vestige of progressive, pro-feminist values.

  7. According to the Herald, Rudds up to supporters, and you can assume that anyone who has come out for Rudd is locked in. That means he’s getting into pretty dangerous territory in his fight with the ALP union hackocracy whose numbers must be a bit soft in a secret ballot.

  8. DTT

    The phone calls would probably be from the older members of the community. I would be interested in knowing the proportion of for/against in the twitterverse as the younger voters use that medium to let their thoughts be known.

  9. According to the Herald, Rudds up to 31 supporters, and you can assume that anyone who has come out for Rudd is locked in. That means he’s getting into pretty threatening territory in his fight with the ALP union hackocracy whose numbers must be a bit soft in a secret ballot.

  10. If Mendoza is correctly reported, this is extremely serious. I’m pretty sure such a statement would be actionable if it couldn’t be proved to be true. Probably “true” in this case would mean firmly based in diagnostic theory and practice.
    I doubt Mendoza would risk throwing away his whole reputation, and probably career, if he wasn’t completely sure of himself.
    In a way I hope he is not being reported correctly, because if he is, things have suddenly got much murkier.

  11. It is heartening to see the support for Gillard expressed on this site by so many poll bludgers. There is every possibility that the polls will gradually turn in her favour if she is given clear air next week when the Rudd malignancy is despatched. Hope lives.

    As I read it, there is a clear-eyed understanding here of the poisonous role the MSM has played in trashing Gillard’s personal reputation and undermining her government, with the help of Rudd’s faceless men: the leakers in cabinet, the journos on the drip, and sneaky backroom operators like Bruce Hawker, all protected from exposure and accountability by the cloak of “journalistic ethics”. Not to mention the vile misogynistic Murdocracy.

    Brains beats bullshit in the end.

    And it is disheartening to see other so-called “lefty” blogs, like Larvatus Prodeo and John Quiggan, comprehensively trashing Gillard, on the grounds that she lacks character and ability, that she is electoral poison wtihout any redemptive qualities, that the ALP is “finished”, and all hope is lost. How depresssing.

    Congratulations Poll Bludgers (with a couple of noxious exceptions).

  12. Oh dear 😆
    [Kieran Gilbert @Kieran_Gilbert National MP just phoned to say his office has received several calls for him to back Rudd for leadership #respill #auspol]

  13. I hope Rudd announces that he will run for both the leadership and the deputy leadership if he doesn\’t win the leadership.

  14. 30 is quite a lot of MPs, actually. The secret ballot will flush out a few more.

    On to stage 2 in 2013. Gilalrd has no cahnce of prventig it, other than stewarding an improvement in the polls.

  15. It is funny how vindictive people become when they are against something or someone. The Gillard supporters have fallen off a tree in their condemnation of Rudd as a person, not simply as a politician.

    I have no animosity towards Gillard as a person. She is a great administrator and legislator.

    But she has one fatal problem. She simply can\’t win the next election because most Australians think she is a liar and simply don\’t listen to anything she says, this means all her significant achievements are meaningless. She simply will not get any credit for anyone. The voters are just waiting to vote her out and couldn\’t care less what she does between now and the next election.

  16. Slackboy72 @ 2669 wrote:

    [Rudd is an incompetent, vainglorious, treacherous, lying, self-gratifying disgrace who should never have been allowed to lead Labor at all.

    Sounds like an apt description of every member of parliament.]

    22Feb @CrowEating RT @1395FIVEaa Wayne Swan calls Kevin Rudd dysfunctional,demeaning,disloyal & selfish in a statement released tonight>typical ALP MP #auspol

    No, not plagiarism. Just bleeding obvious.

  17. He couldn’t possibly squib it now… could he?

    Surely not with all those cards and letters from Mums and Dads that keep coming in, surely not with wall-to-wall spruiking for him from the same media who spread his lies against Gillard, and who once waged total war against him, only to sanctify him now?

  18. Crikey might as well close their servers down for what use they are.

    Its getting worse not better.

    William is there anything that can be done?

  19. Nielsen Poll tomorrow

    [
    The Sydney Morning Herald has just finished a comprehensive Nielsen poll of voters on how they think the Labor leadership struggle should be resolved.

    The exclusive poll, to be revealed tomorrow, asks the question gripping the nation’s voters: do they prefer Julia Gillard or Kevin Rudd to be prime minister?

    Voters have also been asked the equally poignant question of whether the party should now swap leaders – and the findings throw light on the dilemma facing senior party figures.

    ]
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/voters-make-their-decision-on-labor-leadership-20120224-1tsfn.html

  20. [ He’s taking on Gillard’s achievements as his own. ]

    In Rudd’s mind, all Gillard’s achievements are his achievements, because he cannot admit that he was rolled for valid reasons, or that she got things through parliament that he couldn’t (or wouldn’t).

  21. well, if this is the ‘new’ krudd heaven help us – twitchy, sweating profusely – more of the same and worse! a megalomaniac.

  22. well, if this is the ‘new’ krudd heaven help us – twitchy, sweating profusely – more of the same and worse! a megalomaniac.

  23. [It is funny how vindictive people become when they are against something or someone. The Gillard supporters have fallen off a tree in their condemnation of Rudd as a person, not simply as a politician.]

    Many commenters here revel in getting derogatory and personal with other commenters who don’t support Gillard, and with Rudd. I wonder if they think it helps their cause by generally slagging everybody.

    Very good press conference by Rudd by the way.

  24. well, if this is the ‘new’ krudd heaven help us – twitchy, sweating profusely – more of the same and worse! a megalomaniac.

  25. well, if this is the ‘new’ krudd heaven help us – twitchy, sweating profusely – more of the same and worse! a megalomaniac.

  26. well, if this is the ‘new’ krudd heaven help us – twitchy, sweating profusely – more of the same and worse! a megalomaniac.

  27. well, if this is the ‘new’ krudd heaven help us – twitchy, sweating profusely – more of the same and worse! a megalomaniac.

  28. well, if this is the ‘new’ krudd heaven help us – twitchy, sweating profusely – more of the same and worse! a megalomaniac.

  29. [It is funny how vindictive people become when they are against something or someone. The Gillard supporters have fallen off a tree in their condemnation of Rudd as a person, not simply as a politician.]

    Many commenters here revel in getting derogatory and personal with other commenters who don’t support Gillard, and with Rudd. I wonder if they think it helps their cause by generally slagging everybody.

    Very good press conference by Rudd by the way.

  30. So Rudd walks away from the ONLY reform he made to the Labor party, that of letting the PM appointing the Ministry, and one he benefitted by when Gillard let him chose his Ministry.

    The reason? At least two of his supporters (McLellan, Carr) were demoted in the last Ministry reshuffle. They wouldn’t have been, if the factions had been in control of appointments.

  31. SUSAN – Most people on this blog are picking lint off their lapels and hurling insults while the train of history is blasting past them. We have reached a post-industrial, post union world and this is the last stand of the union hacks in the ALP. The question is whether they accept that change or turn the ALP into the alamo

  32. I always said that Kevin Rudd was the worst PM in Australian history until Julia Gillard topped him by a country mile. Now that 90% of ALP’s front bench agrees with me, I have been proven correct, as usual.

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