Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match

The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.

Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.

Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).

Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).

Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).

Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).

Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).

Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).

Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).

Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).

Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).

Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).

If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).

• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.

• Joanna Gash, who has held the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore for the Liberals since 1996, announced last month that she would not seek another term. She plans to move her political career down a notch by running in the direct election for mayor of Shoalhaven in September, which will not require her to resign her seat in parliament (UPDATE: A reader points out that the O’Farrell government is planning to change this, and that there is a strong chance it will do so before September.) Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her as Liberal candidate is local deputy mayor Andrew Guile, a former staffer to Gash who has since fallen out with her. Salusinszky reports Guile is an ally of state Kiama MP Gareth Ward, “a member of the party’s Left faction who is influential in local branches”. Clive Brooks, owner of South Nowra business Great Southern Motorcycles and reportedly an ally of Gash, has also been mentioned as a possible contender, as have “conservative pastor Peter Pilt and former 2007 state election candidate Ann Sudmalis” (by Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury).

• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday will see incumbent Louise Markus challenged by aged-care lobbyist Charles Wurf in Macquarie. According to Imre Salusinszky in The Australian, local observers consider the contest too close to call: “A defeat of Ms Markus would be a stick in the eye to federal leader Tony Abbott, who backs sitting MPs, and to the state party machine, which does not wish to devote precious campaign resources to marketing an unknown in the ultra-marginal seat.”

• In Eden-Monaro, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Hendy is reckoned likely to win Liberal endorsement.

• Andrew Southcott, the Liberal member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby, is being challenged for preselection by Chris Moriarty, former state party president and operator of an export manufacturing firm. Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports Moriarty is a close ally of former state Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith. Also challenging is Mark Nankivell, whom Wills rates as “little known” but rumoured to be supported by another former state leader, Iain Evans. Southcott’s lax fund-raising efforts are said to have angered many in the party.

• Also under challenge is Patrick Secker in the rural South Australian seat of Barker. He faces rivals in the shape of Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin and Millicent real estate agent and Wattle Range councillor Ben Treloar, but Daniel Wills reports he is expected to prevail.

• New Zealand is conducting a review into its mixed member proportional electoral system, which received a strong endorsement from voters at a referendum held in conjunction with the November election. The main concern to have emerged is that candidates can run both in constituencies and as part of the party lists which are used to top up parties’ representation so that their parliamentary numbers are proportional to the votes cast. The most frequently cited anomaly here relates to the Auckland electorate of Epsom, which has been held since 2005 by Rodney Hine of the free-market Act New Zealand party. The National Party has an interest in the seat remaining in the Act New Zealand fold, as the party is its natural coalition partner and success in a constituency seat entitles it to a share of seats proportional to its vote (a failure to do so would require them to clear a 5 per cent national vote threshold). To this end it has formed the habit of running a candidate in the seat who is also given an unloseable position on the party list, so supporters can be reassured that he will have a seat even if he loses in Epsom. One possibility is that the problem might be lessened by lowering the threshold to 4 per cent, which is what the original royal commission into the electoral system recommended before MMP was introduced in 1996.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,095 comments on “Gillard vs Rudd – the re-match”

Comments Page 57 of 62
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  1. [Does/has Rudd called Gillard a bitch to others behind her back? If so, have journalists know this? Have they ever mentioned in any of their writings that he has done so?]

    Probably … and worse. There have a been a couple of stories already. Won’t be surprised there are tapes and videos in a locker somewhere, there always is. This guy is not clever, he is rat-cunning. He has been surviving by the skin of his teeth all his life. What they think is smarts is not – he has a high IQ when it comes to fCking people over – nothing else.

    So, the fact that a lot is now out in the open will cause the MSN sharks to to search out and flesh out the juicy bits – and recorded ‘Red haired Bitch!’ or similar quotes by Rudd is the holy grail of ‘investigative journalism’ right now. Do they exist? I think they do.

  2. Greentard
    [It is very sad that the Gillard forces are trashing Rudd, even though at that time the government was far more popular than it is today.]

    Well, he obviously hasn’t minded trashing the government since 2010. What did you expect?

  3. [So, the fact that a lot is now out in the open will cause the MSN sharks to to search out and flesh out the juicy bits – and recorded ‘Red haired Bitch!’ or similar quotes]

    So TLM/Evan is Rudd’s speechwriter…

  4. Cart 1 the Fibs wont keep tony whilst Gillard is there.
    They figure that if Rudd gets back, the ALP will ,lose a landslide snap election

  5. [Yeah, well when he sees the note on his office door about my phone call he’s going to see something quite different. And with rather bad language.

    Interesting that his PA’s harrangued tone suggested to me that ]

    Not only you, Danny L. My brother and SIL have done the same and friends have done it to Zappia.

  6. [Mental health expert John Mendoza tells Adelaide radio he diagnoses Kevin Rudd as a sociopath]

    GG – I’d like to hear what Mendoza thinks of Abbott.

  7. Just in case you have ANY doubt about the electoral effect up here in Qld the phones and emails are running hot. Heavily in favour if Rudd – ie mean HEAVILY 6-10/1 in favour.

    Electorally this could be a disaster for Labor. In Qld if not in Victoria.

  8. Oh please!

    Not the Sovereign Risk line again!

    We had all this with the MRRT.

    Big investment decisions are made 1,2,5, 10 years into the future.

    Anyone, but anyone, who has flown overseas knows the moment you take off from Oz, what happens here and that it exists at all, are of little or no consequence to the rest of the world.

    On one trip to the UK I looked through two reputable papers and found Australia mentioned but once. In other words nobody actually gives a stuff.

    This Sovereign Risk thing is akin to the old line the Libs would pull close to an election that the “stock market will go down”. Well of course it did but the implication was the it was due to Labour – as it was in those days.

    As it was put to me by someone from China. The Pearl River delta – about the size of Tassy – had 70 million people living in the area. As the Chinese person said to me: “Do you really think we know or care about 22 million of you on your island far away?”

    Get real.

    The only comment from anyone overseas might be that we all should be collectively kicked in the backside. Never had it so good – relative to other places – yet we can’t even seem to agree among ourselves when times are relatively good.

    Goodness only knows how we would cope with a Greece/Italy/Ireland/Iceland etc etc crisis – that is, a real one.

    Oh, I forgot. If St Kevin can’t save us, surely St Anthony of Abbott can give us that “stability” we all crave.

    Never mind we have two male ego-manics threatening things.

  9. BH

    ask William for my email address – or If You Know Who I Am, google me & it will pop up (ignore any alp ones, they only exist during campaigns).

    If you google my name & arabian, you’ll get there quicker (otherwise have to wade through a heap of boring political stuff…)

  10. DTT

    Where does the info come from?

    Just in case you have ANY doubt about the electoral effect up here in Qld the phones and emails are running hot. Heavily in favour if Rudd – ie mean HEAVILY 6-10/1 in favour.

    Electorally this could be a disaster for Labor. In Qld if not in Victoria.]

  11. The ABC managed to find two Queenslanders who thought Kevvie was hard done by, “un-Australian” and all that.

    Were they part of the crowd that had the baseball bats out for him in 2010?

    ABC does selective amnesia very well.

  12. [Is the ALP likely to disendorse Rudd?

    Wht would be the consequences of that?]

    Well, lets kick off with the loss of Griffith, and no seats north of the Tweed.

  13. [Labor MPs to get free vote on leadership
    BY: BEN PACKHAM AND LANAI VASEK From: The Australian February 24, 2012 1:37PM

    GILLARD backer and Labor powerbroker Bill Shorten says Monday’s leadership spill will be a free vote and MPs who support Kevin Rudd will be respected.

    Amid claims backbenchers have been heavied by “faceless men”, the Workplace Minister formally declared his support for Ms Gillard and said all MPs would make their own decisions about who received their vote.

    “If MPs are voting for Kevin Rudd, that’s fine. If MPs vote for Julia Gillard, that’s fine,” the Labor Right faction boss told Sky News.

    “What I do know is that each of these individuals will be arriving at these conclusions based on their view of the merits of Julia Gillard’s leadership, and whether or not she is the best person to lead the nation.”

    South Australian MP Nick Champion, who today declared his support for Mr Rudd, welcomed Mr Shorten’s assurance.

    “That is very welcome news that someone with such a high profile is saying that,” the Right-aligned MP said.]
    more in the article

  14. autocrat
    [Roxon absolutely reeks of authenticity.]

    In my capacity as a PB pedant I suggest that “reeks” is inappropriate for a statement of praise.

  15. Diogenes

    [I gather Rudds presser is at 2pm, non-convict state time.]

    One person’s non-convict state is another’s non-High Court judge state.

  16. triton

    Vic had a few convicts dumped on them from other states. The only convict ship to go directly to Vic turned their noses up at it (they landed near Sorrento) and went to Hobart instead.

  17. Well, Im originally from QLD – and I can assure you they are parochial, and it is not a made up factor. Katter doesnt come from nowhere with his pro-Rudd stuff. There’s simply no question Rudd will win or hold several seats there that Gillard cannot possibly hope to. None at all.

    So unless someone has a set of countervailing seats they wish to point to – then by defintion Rudd has a better chance of winning the 2013 election.

  18. DTT
    [up here in Qld the phones and emails are running hot. Heavily in favour if Rudd – ie mean HEAVILY 6-10/1 in favour.]

    Menzies House having one of their busiest days ever.

  19. [GILLARD backer and Labor powerbroker Bill Shorten says Monday’s leadership spill will be a free vote and MPs who support Kevin Rudd will be respected.]

    Yeah, thats so big of Shorto, to allow ther freest possibility of the two leaders ahead of him to maul each other.

    Note Shorto has made a complete tosser of himself ranting like douchebag about Rudd. Playing the long game as always.

  20. Oops.

    Note Shorto *hasn’t* made a complete tosser of himself ranting like douchebag about Rudd. Playing the long game as always.

  21. probably way out there but my prediction – rudd won’t stand, won’t cry….. with prime minister’s presser following. otherwise why pm having a pressser later?

  22. Kevin Rudd to make a statement on Labor leadership in Brisbane

    I hope he’ll be backing Anna Bligh. Then, again, you never know with Kevvie.

  23. It is quite clear and has been for while that Rudd would win and Gillard could not. This has been the indication for a long while.

    This fight is not about who is best for Labor or to win an election, if it were then Rudd would have the numbers. It is about the power faction protecting itself from Rudd, and nothing else.

  24. In my capacity as a PB pedant I suggest that “reeks” is inappropriate for a statement of praise.

    “Exudes” is such a cliche.

  25. DTT

    Goodness now it’s the boogey man of “electoral damage” well duh!!!!!!!!!!!

    Of course, none of this crap is doing Labor one ounce of good in the electorate right now.

    Some outcomes?

    *Anna Blight’s will not win – sorry friends in Qld – but after 13 years there is the “time” thing and a chance for the electorate to “get even”. This has been on the cards for some time now.

    *Federally in Queensland, Labor does not have many seats and has to win them. If it loses them, the result is still the same, a loss for Labor in government in any event.

    *Labor has three out of 15 in WA and has to win seats. If it loses, does it really matter whether they are all or none. They will not get back into office unless seats are won.

    See, I don’t see any difference in Labor holding 10, 20 or 50, or 60 seats in opposition. Once you are in opposition, you can’t do anything – other than produce policies which the conservatives pinch.

    The significant point is for Gillard to be on her feet in 2013 and viable – despite all attempts to destroy her.

    Rudd on his feet on Tuesday will mean 28 seats in the Reps, with the Greens, and 45% of the population effectively disenfranchised.

    The electoral “wipe out” thing does not bother me.

    If Labor were down to 10 seats in the Reps so what? The can’t govern with 10, 20, 30 or even 70.

    The only downside is the loss of some Senate seats. But I have a funny feeling that Abbott would be in for a nasty surprise as while many left of centre voters might shift their vote to the Greens or somewhere else, I sense they would hedge their bets and would ensure he did not get control of the Senate.

    If you want “instability” wait for it.

    Rudd is a certain poison.

    Two ego-manics Rudd and Abbott flogging it out in parliament.

    Just lovely!

  26. [Mental health expert John Mendoza tells Adelaide radio he diagnoses Kevin Rudd as a sociopath]

    Assessment conducted via media commentary – not very scientific.

  27. Just on DTTs polling comments is it 6/1 or 10/1 you need to make your mind up and that of your sources one no doubt being that imbecile hawker the other 2 being your
    mouth and your arse

  28. ABC24 crossing live from a Shorten interview, to Rudd’s home, to film him saying he isn’t going to talk to them.

    Rudd, pressed to say something, now saying that in Big Brother “the people get to decide”.

    So it IS a reality TV show after all!

    I’ve been saying this for a long while. Nice to have the Ruddster confirm it.

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