The government is down a Foreign Minister this evening (the Canberra Times reports on the likely shape of the looming reshuffle, in case you were wondering), and by all accounts the Prime Minister will seek to clear the air tomorrow by calling a leadership spill for Monday. This makes the timing of the next Newspoll very interesting indeed: usually it reports on Monday evening, but it occasionally emerges a day earlier. The Prime Minister would presumably prefer that the matter be resolved before it comes out rather than after.
Beyond that, I do not venture to guess what will occur, beyond observing the consensus view that Kevin Rudd will be seeking to wound rather than kill, as he starts far behind on most caucus head-counts. Two such have been published: an error-ridden effort from The Weekend Australian which was corrected the following Monday, and this from the Sydney Morning Herald. The former was rather kinder to Rudd. There are 51 out of 103 whom The Oz and the SMH agree are firm for Gillard, and 30 whom they agree are firm for Rudd. There are four agreed Gillard leaners and four agreed Rudd leaners. The Oz has six down as undecided, but the SMH has everyone as either firm or leaning.
Gillard supporters: Albanese, O’Neill, Combet, Clare, Fitzgibbon, Owens, Arbib, Thistlethwaite, Garrett, Bird, Grierson, Plibersek, Burke (NSW); Shorten, O’Connor, King, Feeney, Macklin, Gillard, Dreyfus, Danby, Roxon, Marles (Vic); Ripoll, Emerson, Perrett, Ludwig, Hogg, Neumann, Swan, D’Ath (Qld); Evans, Gray, Sterle, Smith (WA); McEwen, Farrell, Ellis, Butler, Georganas (SA); Julie Collins, Sidebottom (Tas); Leigh, Brodtmann, Lundy (ACT); Snowdon (NT).
Oz says Gillard lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Rowland (NSW), Livermore (Qld), Gallacher (SA).
Oz says undecided, SMH says firm for Gillard: Hayes (NSW), Jenkins, Jacinta Collins, Kelvin Thomson (Vic).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says firm for Gillard: Craig Thomson (NSW), McLucas (Qld), Rishworth (SA).
Gillard leaners: Craig Thomson, Bradbury (NSW); Bilyk, Polley (Tas).
Oz says undecided, SMH says Gillard lean: Symon (Vic), Singh (Tas).
Oz says Rudd lean, SMH says Gillard lean: Laurie Ferguson (NSW), Champion (SA).
Oz says firm Rudd, SMH says firm Gillard: Melham (NSW).
Rudd leaners: Murphy (NSW); Pratt (WA); Adams, Lyons (Tas).
Rudd supporters: Bowen, Cameron, Husic, Saffin, Hall, Faulkner, Elliott, Kelly, McClelland, Jones, Stephens (NSW); Griffin, Burke, Byrne, Cheeseman, Marshall, Carr, Smyth, Vamvakinou, Ferguson (Vic); Moore, Rudd, Furner (Qld); Bishop, Parke (WA); Zappia (SA); Urquhart, Brown, Sherry (Tas); Crossin (NT).
If you’re in the mood for diversion, as many have been lately, here is a review of some recent preselection action, in keeping with this site’s brief (together with an even more diverting diversion to New Zealand).
• The Liberals are mulling over whether to proceed with the endorsement of Garry Whitaker to run against Craig Thomson in Dobell, following allegations he has lived for years without council permission in an “ensuite shed” on his Wyong Creek property while awaiting approval to build a house there. Whitaker won a preselection vote in December, but there is talk the state executive might overturn the result and install the candidate he defeated, the Right-backed WorkCover public servant Karen McNamara. As for Labor, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports there is “no chance” Thomson will be preselected again, “with party strategists favouring the nomination fo a young woman to create maximum differentiation from the tainted MP”. One possibility is local councillor Emma McBride, whose father Grant McBride bowed out as state member for The Entrance at last year’s state election.
• Joanna Gash, who has held the south coast NSW seat of Gilmore for the Liberals since 1996, announced last month that she would not seek another term. She plans to move her political career down a notch by running in the direct election for mayor of Shoalhaven in September, which will not require her to resign her seat in parliament (UPDATE: A reader points out that the O’Farrell government is planning to change this, and that there is a strong chance it will do so before September.) Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports the front-runner to succeed her as Liberal candidate is local deputy mayor Andrew Guile, a former staffer to Gash who has since fallen out with her. Salusinszky reports Guile is an ally of state Kiama MP Gareth Ward, “a member of the party’s Left faction who is influential in local branches”. Clive Brooks, owner of South Nowra business Great Southern Motorcycles and reportedly an ally of Gash, has also been mentioned as a possible contender, as have “conservative pastor Peter Pilt and former 2007 state election candidate Ann Sudmalis” (by Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury).
• A Liberal Party preselection vote on Saturday will see incumbent Louise Markus challenged by aged-care lobbyist Charles Wurf in Macquarie. According to Imre Salusinszky in The Australian, local observers consider the contest too close to call: “A defeat of Ms Markus would be a stick in the eye to federal leader Tony Abbott, who backs sitting MPs, and to the state party machine, which does not wish to devote precious campaign resources to marketing an unknown in the ultra-marginal seat.”
• In Eden-Monaro, former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Peter Hendy is reckoned likely to win Liberal endorsement.
• Andrew Southcott, the Liberal member for the Adelaide seat of Boothby, is being challenged for preselection by Chris Moriarty, former state party president and operator of an export manufacturing firm. Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports Moriarty is a close ally of former state Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith. Also challenging is Mark Nankivell, whom Wills rates as “little known” but rumoured to be supported by another former state leader, Iain Evans. Southcott’s lax fund-raising efforts are said to have angered many in the party.
• Also under challenge is Patrick Secker in the rural South Australian seat of Barker. He faces rivals in the shape of Mount Gambier lawyer Tony Pasin and Millicent real estate agent and Wattle Range councillor Ben Treloar, but Daniel Wills reports he is expected to prevail.
• New Zealand is conducting a review into its mixed member proportional electoral system, which received a strong endorsement from voters at a referendum held in conjunction with the November election. The main concern to have emerged is that candidates can run both in constituencies and as part of the party lists which are used to top up parties’ representation so that their parliamentary numbers are proportional to the votes cast. The most frequently cited anomaly here relates to the Auckland electorate of Epsom, which has been held since 2005 by Rodney Hine of the free-market Act New Zealand party. The National Party has an interest in the seat remaining in the Act New Zealand fold, as the party is its natural coalition partner and success in a constituency seat entitles it to a share of seats proportional to its vote (a failure to do so would require them to clear a 5 per cent national vote threshold). To this end it has formed the habit of running a candidate in the seat who is also given an unloseable position on the party list, so supporters can be reassured that he will have a seat even if he loses in Epsom. One possibility is that the problem might be lessened by lowering the threshold to 4 per cent, which is what the original royal commission into the electoral system recommended before MMP was introduced in 1996.
confessions
Sorry to use the term, but Rudd is a loose cannon. In your guts, you know his nuts. And therefore If Albo supports Rudd. I Will give up on the party.
Kezza I didn’t think you were picking on me and don’t have a problem if you want to have a did from time to time. It’s a political blog and we are all adults.
Now I’ve heard everything:
ABC24 saying “Kevin Rudd says he won’t hold grudges”.
LoL
Rudd will do whatever will best help him to be ultimately successful. I imagine if extreme character assassination doesn’t push his hand then child like taunts on PB wont.
And here’s an interview with Dean Young on the truth about what happened in 2010:
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/league-news/we-were-the-ones-out-there-young-downplays-bennetts-role-20120223-1tqsk.html
[ABC24 saying “Kevin Rudd says he won’t hold grudges”.]
Rudd taking the high road. The power faction took the lowest common denominator, and Gillard herself took the low road.
Generally Rudd’s side has been reasoned and polite. Gillard’s side, vicious and low.
[Richo seems to be on the money, saying Rudd can’t govern and Gillard can’t win. Labor’s between a rock and a hard place.
Gillard’s prosaic and practical but a creature of the factional bosses. Rudd is brilliant but disfunctional, with egomaniacal tendencies.]
See, Labor needs both of them working together. But the face of the government has to be Rudd, even if the operation is controlled by Gillard.
The more I think about it, the more it was a huge mistake not letting Gillard be the treasurer where she could\’ve essentially run most of the government functions, particularly the spending programs.
But she can\’t win an election.
Of course Rudd would be a better PM the second time around simply because he would know that the caucus would be willing to ditch him if he got out of line.
[Gillard’s side, vicious and low.]
TP,
because they don’t support your point of view?
Martin O’Shannessy is out doing his stuff polling 1200. Wouldn’t be trying to influence the ALP caucus would he / Murdoch?
It is very sad that the Gillard forces are trashing Rudd, even though at that time the government was far more popular than it is today.
David Marr says there will be a Neilsen done this weekend.
[Martin O’Shannessy is out doing his stuff polling 1200. Wouldn’t be trying to influence the ALP caucus would he / Murdoch?]
Nothing wrong with polling companies doing polls.
It\’s a free country.
[Of course Rudd would be a better PM the second time around simply because he would know that the caucus would be willing to ditch him if he got out of line.]
Oh honestly…
Rudd would be an ever worse PM second time around. He’d be out for revenge on anyone who had ever done anything to upsert him even if it was just getting the last iced vovo at morning tea. Cabinet would have to be made up of raw beginners because most current ministers have said they would not work with him again.
Should his L plate cabinet decide to ditch him again he’d simply do it all again. If it works this time he’d expect it to work again and again. It would be Ruddhog day for cabinet. Sack him, he spits the dummy and calls for a ballot, over and over.
All we need now are Essential, Morgan and Galaxy for a full house.
William, do you expect this weekend’s polls to surprise?
leone
As sad as it will be. Any remote chance of Rudd being PM, would be a return to the polls, and a landslide victory to the Fibs. Labor will be in the wildnerness for years.
[David Marr says there will be a Neilsen done this weekend.]
I wonder if it will show a Swan-Crean effect.
[Just received an email from a country ALP branch (non factional) expressing 100% support for Gillard & urging other branches to pass similar motions.]
Zoomster – could have been mine.
BTW – I may need to ask you for some advice re pointers for Council elections. Would you mind if I asked in a couple of months. Can do it by DM on twitter if you like.
Shorten presser with WW.
Greensborough Growler
[Jon Faine was being criticised this morning for not reading out any pro Rudd SMS messages etc. He said it was because there were none.]
There were 18 comments in all in that section of The Age. Of the eight I didn’t post, one is anti-Rudd, three are neutral, three are neutral but anti-Abbott, and one (about Crean and faceless men) is hard to interpret. Not one was pro-Rudd or anti-Gillard.
[Oh honestly…
Rudd would be an ever worse PM second time around. He’d be out for revenge on anyone who had ever done anything to upsert him even if it was just getting the last iced vovo at morning tea. Cabinet would have to be made up of raw beginners because most current ministers have said they would not work with him again.]
Nah this is silly billy nonsense. People often say they won\’t serve under a particular leader, but when there are $245K p.a. cabinet jobs available, they all get in line for them.
dave:
Marr said he expected it would have Gillard-Abbott and Rudd-Abbott results, plus Gillard-Rudd-others for the ALP.
If the caucus can keep a lid on it untill monday, and resolve the spill cleanly, then this could be the making of Prime Minister Julia Gillard
[Labor will be in the wildnerness for years]
They’re already there. Julia’s just keeping the seat warm for Tony.
[Marr said he expected it would have Gillard-Abbott and Rudd-Abbott results, plus Gillard-Rudd-others for the ALP.]
And it will show Rudd leading all of them.
And then the caucus will promptly re-elected Gillard simply because she will be easier for the Labor establishment to knock over later in the year.
[Wilkie to play waiting game on Rudd
DENISON independent MHR Andrew Wilkie says he won’t judge former prime minister Kevin Rudd on poker machine reform until he spoke to him.]
http://www.examiner.com.au/news/local/news/general/wilkie-to-play-waiting-game-on-rudd/2465271.aspx
I’d like to have seen the look on Wilkie’s dial when Bruce Hawker turned up as Kev-07’s spokesman and that he was leaving the Qld election campaign to support Kev-07 (that is, of course, if he understands the implication!).
Bill Shorten absolutely cannot be ruffled.
Conf with Wilkie coming up.
I gather Rudds presser is at 2pm, non-convict state time.
[Generally Rudd’s side has been reasoned and polite. Gillard’s side, vicious and low.]
LOL, the smiling assassin.
Here the problem Rudd has – he need to convince the 30 odd waverers to his side. he only has 17 declared.
how’s this for a narrative:
[“gee thanx for the call Kevie, you know I like you, but it does seem impossible for you to win. You just don’t have the numbers”
“gee mate, I know it looks worse than it is, but I need my supporters out so I can at least have a respectable showing. You know I’m the only hope for the party getting elected in 2013?”
“yeah well maybe, but if you don’t win now, how can you win in 2013.?”
“well mate, if I don’t win now, but get yours and other supporters vote, then at least I can go to the backbench and wait for later to try again, it will be twice as exciting the next time!”]
Somehow I don’t think that narrative is going to fly. Rudd is fcuked. I think he will announce a non-challenge so he can go to the backbench and non-challenge again in 3 months time.
He need to be put out of his misery, anything else will be cruel.
Diog,
2:30 AEDT unless there has been a change in the last 5 minutes.
Wilkie now on
IMO if rudd gets the leadership back, the fibs will stay with the RAbbott. If Caucus re-affirms there support for the PM then the Fibs will quickly ditch RAbbott for Talcum
The Actions of Mr Rudd do constitute a sovereign risk factor. Potential capital investors would now be sitting on the sidelines, waiting for some confidence about the outcomes. they would know that Ms Gillard is going to roll Mr Rudd on Monday. They would also know that Mr Rudd would have to be cured before he would let that stop him. They would also know that there is a substantial prospect that Mr Rudd Redux would soften several key policies.
Global uncertainty magnifies the Rudd sovereign risk factor.
However, that is only half the story. The other half is the Abbott sovereign risk factor. investors would know that the set of his policies represent a financial shambles. They know that he is prone to making brainsnap policy announcements which have potentially deleterious impacts on their bottom lines. They know that has been talking down consumer and business confidence for personal political gain. They know that he will disrupt or destroy nation-building infrastructure.
In sum, the two rotten apples are united by their vision statement: Gimme the job or I’ll wreck the joint. Business leaders are entitled to draw the attention of the public to the damage being done.
However, they destroy their credibility if they direct their criticism at just one of the two rotten apples.
Nor has the MSM generally provided the public with balanced, critical analyses of just what damage the two rotten apples are doing to the fabric of our governence and to investment certainty. There are isolated exceptions amongst the MSM.
We deserve better from our political class. We deserve better from our business leaders. We deserve better from the MSM.
TP
[Rudd taking the high road.]
Do you ever even read the utter tripe you post? Trying to undermine your own side during an election campaign and for 18 months is the lowest of low roads.
BB@2701
You beat me to it.
Okay, let’s take a couple of simple propositions outlined by Probyn in the West this morning.
1. Does/has Rudd called Gillard a bitch to others behind her back? If so, have journalists know this? Have they ever mentioned in any of their writings that he has done so?
2. Have journalists known for some weeks that Rudd briefed four journalists (two of whose names have been bandied around here) and who apart from Cassidy, obliquely, have made any reference to this in their so-called political analysis?
What is rich is the likes of Annabel Crabbe now coming out with pompous stuff like “When all else fails, the government comes out with the truth.”
The question petal, was where was all your truth? I am not saying Crabbe knew the above goings on but I would be surprised if she did not.
To top if off we get our host defending the media’s position saying the government got into this pickle by themselves.
This is so much rot.
The politicians get into bed with the journos and they in turn are quite happy for it to happen. Screw one another they do.
My point is, politics is about duplicity while good journalism should be able to separate fact from fiction, opinion from reality, the ability to present the facts without qualification and an open-minded approach.
No wonder people long ago stopped believing what they read in the paper and the steam driven media is dying a death.
However, the duplicity which drives the print media has, it seems, been able to morph across to other forms.
I forget the bottom end of the “I believe you list” but I think the last four are real estate agents, politicians, used car salesmen and journos.
In actual fact I think used car sales people and real estate people have lifted themselves from the very bottom and politicians and journos are vying for last place.
On the basis of Crabbe’s comments today, she is making sure they do secure last place.
At the end of the day they will have about as much credibility as village gossips.
Diog
[non-convict state time]
Surely we Vics did not host convicts?
victoira will you please check your emails
also phins have another name for you for franks list
julia ofcourse
victoira will you please check your emails
also phins have another name for you for franks list
julia ofcourse
vic – i agree believe albo is waiting to see how the numbers fall – disappointing to say the least…
[Annabel Crabb @annabelcrabb
Ye gods and little fishes. Words fail me. Now the dog’s involved: http://tinyurl.com/27q5var%5D
Therese Rein says their dog is psychic. Always knows when Kev is coming home.
Herald Sun report 🙁
[victoira will you please check your emails
also phins have another name for you for franks list
julia ofcourse]
my say,
Well spotted – perhaps The Finns has declared himself for Rudd…
Victoria
You seem to live in a bit of a dream world.
Griffith is NOT a safe seat for Labor. It was lost in 1996. Since then it has been heavily gentrifying and is less safe for Labor although also there are more Greens.
Kevin Rudd has increased the margin.
Should he leave it is unlikely that even a high profile candidate like Beattie would win. In any case Rudd is just as likely to run as an independent.
If Rudd chooses to quit Labor- and who could blame him after the vicious personal attacks – he could be “a happy little vegemite” as an independent.
Rudd quitting and moving to the cross bench – JUST AS MR SLIPPER DID- would throw out the balance of power. Rudd could support a shift to a moderate LNP leadership Turnbull – and get public cred for it.
Labor is reaping what it sowed and I doubt it will be pretty.
I will give you a little secret. On most policy issues the liberal moderates are slightly to the left of much of the ALP. Irritating though they are Hunt, Pyne, Turnbull are small l liberals.
Albo’s busy on the phone and needs to be “neutral”, publicly anyway.
Mick – You’ll upset the Libs on here saying that. They’re hoping Kev-07 will get up causing the Libs to go for Talcum.
[Marr said he expected it would have Gillard-Abbott and Rudd-Abbott results, plus Gillard-Rudd-others for the ALP.]
And Rudd will be shown to lead all these polls.
Yet the Labor establishment will help re-elect Gillard leader on Monday simply cos she will be easier to knock off later in the year.
That’s not very good by ABC95, cutting off Wilkie to replay some Kevvie stuff.
Shorten as PM wouldn’t be much different to Robertson as leader in NSW – the ALP still hostage to the union faction, refusing the face the future.
[Ye gods and little fishes. Words fail me. Now the dog’s involved:]
lizzie
Wait until the goldfish get trotted out!
[Martin O’Shannessy is out doing his stuff polling 1200. Wouldn’t be trying to influence the ALP caucus would he / Murdoch?]
It’s a matter of genuine public interest. It’d be odd not to poll.
[Rudd taking the high road.
Do you ever even read the utter tripe you post?]
Sometimes I wonder whether Thomas is aware that he’s spewing out garbage but just can’t help himself.
Mental health expert John Mendoza tells Adelaide radio he diagnoses Kevin Rudd as a sociopath
[Champion hods up a note stuck to his office door asking him to put Rudd back as PM.]
Yeah, well when he sees the note on his office door about my phone call he’s going to see something quite different. And with rather bad language.
Interesting that his PA’s harrangued tone suggested to me that he’s sick of the phone calls telling him his member is a dickhead …