Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll is unchanged on last week’s result, except that the Greens are up a point to 10 per cent – Labor is on 35 per cent, the Coalition is on 48 per cent, and two-party preferred is 54-46. Further questions relate to mandatory pre-commitment, with support at 62 per cent (one point higher than when they last asked the question in October) and opposition at 25 per cent (five points lower), and “additional” government assistance to the car industry (58 per cent support, 18 per cent oppose). As they do from time to time, Essential sought to establish whether a popular misconception played a role in the latter issue, in this case that the car industry employs more people than it actually does, but two-thirds of respondents simply said they didn’t know. Also covered: “most important roles of government”, best party to handle issues (Labor leads Liberal only on “providing support to the most disadvantaged”), and the status of manufacturing industry more generally.

UPDATE: We also had from Roy Morgan on Friday their occasional exercise of inquiring about the best leader for both parties, and it has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard widening from 31-24 to 33-19 since early November, and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Tony Abbott about stable (from 38-24 to 37-22). As usual, an anyone-but-the-incumbent sentiment from the parties’ opponents was a considerable factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,496 thoughts on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  3. LNP 52: ALP 48 (phone I think)

    If it’s phone, it is a very good result (subject to reservations about Morgan). Any Govt that’s been in power for over 4 years would have to be happy with that figure in the middle of its second term.

  4. So, Morgan is saying 52/48. Considering what has gone on over the past fortnight, ie pokies, its not that a bad poll. Wonder if Tonies “Turn Back the Boats” has had any effect ?

  6. So, the impeccable source that is Ray Hadley reckons it was set up by someone from the PM’s office??

    If he or the person who was called cant name names, then there is nothing to it apart from muckraking and a really desperate attempt to distract from yet another Abbott stuff up.

    Sounds a bit like a situation where someone has said:

    “Well, i wonder if it was a Gillard staffer who called Shaw about our Tones being there. that would sure be a sneaky trick?”

    Gets overheard out of context, gets passed on and paraphrased until:

    “Yup, it was Gillards office that set it up. One of her staffers called them and incited it!!”

  7. Looks like Tony Abbott wasn’t the only Liberal spreading harmony on Australia day. Lexy Downer was in on the act as well .

    Downer called ‘the great subverter’
    Published on January 26, 2012

    DIKO described Downer as the “great subverter” and called for his immediate removal otherwise the UN would be in a difficult position when it came to safeguarding their credibility and impartiality.

    AKEL leader Andros Kyprianou said the comment was not accidental as Downer knew well that it was the Republic taking over the presidency.

    http://www.cyprus-mail.com/alexander-downer/downer-called-great-subverter/20120126

  8. Perhaps more interesting on the Morgan poll (always to be taken with a pinch of salt) are the Government Confidence ratings

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4740/

    L-NP (52%) LEAD CUT AS ALP GAINS (48%)

    Finding No. 4740 – This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two week-ends, January 14/15 & 21/22, 2012 with an Australia-wide cross-section of Australians aged 14+ including 1,921 electors, of all electors surveyed, 6% did not name a party.: January 27, 2012

    In mid January L-NP support is 52% (down 2% from the last face-to-face Morgan Poll) just ahead of the ALP 48% (up 2%) on a Two-Party preferred basis according to the face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends, January 14/15 & 21/22, 2012.

    The L-NP primary vote is 42.5% (down 2.5%) — ahead of the ALP 38.5% (up 1.5%). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 12% (up 1.5%) and Others/ Independents 7% (down 0.5%).

    If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would win according to today’s Morgan Poll.

    The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 115 (up 12pts) — the highest since May 7/8, 2011, with 49% (up 5.5%) — saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ while 34% (down 6.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

    The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating conducted last weekend, January 21/22, 2012, is 117.3 (up 0.7pts from January 14/15, 2012), but down 1.7pts over the period of this poll.

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4738/

    In 2012 Australians believe the most important problems facing Australia and the World are Economic and Financial issues according to the latest Roy Morgan Research conducted on the nights of January 17/18, 2012.

  10. Poroti
    The Greek Cypriots really don’t like Dolly Downer. They have been calling for his removal for sometime.
    He has made comments that are offensive & partisan.

  11. Here’s a conundrum for Abbott’s office. Modus operandi is:

    Send Tony out with some (apparently) anodyne rehearsed statements – feed questions to compliant journos. Get it on the record. TICK

    Background media with “real meaning” spin, thinking behind the statement, frame Abbottt’s statement. TICK

    Compliant media reports story with spin; Exhibit A from Sky News (note time/date stamp – before demo – spun Headline, tough looking photo from archive, story content. TICK

    http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=711656&vId=

    Shit hits the fan. NO TICK, do we backpeddle? What dya reckon, Peta? invoke “shit happens contingency”

    Send out Abbott the next day, with “look at my words, taken out of context, blah, blah, blah). TICK

    Ok, so what is next on our agenda…….

  12. Thanks Leroy. The confidence thing is interesting. Maybe people in this country are waking up to the fact that Australia has escaped “basket case” status, unlike the US and a lot of Europe.

  13. Greensborough Growler

    That latest Morgan poll using the usual preference distribution puts Labor in front

    So on which MSM site did you read that ? 😆

  14. Interesting that the latest Morgan Poll has Labor’s primary vote UP 0.5% from the 2010 election (to 38.5) and the L-NP primary DOWN 0.5% (to 42.5), yet the accompanying blurb staes “The LNP would win an election held now”. Except with a 0.5% primary swing to it, Labor would lose no seats and maybe pick up Brisbane, Denison, Forde and Solomon.

  18. poroti,

    Do the calcs.

    Labour 38.5
    Greens 12 (translates to 9.6 flow @ 80%)
    Independents/Others 7 (translates to 2.1 flow @30%)
    Total TPP 50.2%

  19. Poroti
    The Greek Cypriots really don’t like Dolly Downer. They have been calling for his removal for sometime.
    He has made comments that are offensive & partisan.

    Dee, my parents are recently back after 6 months in Cyprus. Your comment “Greek Cypriots really don’t like…” is an understatement. The words they heard describing Dolly whilst they were holidaying couldn’t be repeated here 😛

  22. Sounds a bit like a situation where someone has said:

    It could well be even more innocent than that – someone might have called the PM’s office to inquire what events she was attending on Australia Day and was told “She will be a guest of honour with Tony Abbott at an event at the Lobby to recognize emergency service personnel.” or something along those lines.

    Hence obviously the PM’s office provided the information to “arrange” the protest…

  23. I wouldn’t get too excited about those poll figures. Abbott’s going to switch to Plan B any time now, with the headland speeches and the policy roll outs. Then he’s going to get Thomson arrested and bring Slipper back into the fold. Then all he as to do is dig up that $70B or so to balance the costings, make a few phone calls and go for a bike ride. He’s got it all sorted out.

    He tried out some of the headland speech material yesterday morning, some reconciliation stuff about the tent embassy. You might have seen it on the news. He thinks it went down pretty well.

  24. My take on the Canberra demo is that the government could have taken some fair advantage from the incident by drawing attention to Abbott’s pre-demo comments concerning the state of aboriginal “advancement” over the past 40 years.

    The PM in general chose her words sensibly, though perhaps slightly overstressing her representation of the protest’s “violent” elements. However, as many others have noted, Abbott must have been aware that his morning’s comments would be taken as offense, and must also have been aware of the proximity between the tent-embassy and the restaurant.

    Clearly, he is culpable to some extent for this incident, and it is unfortunate that the government has let him escape without having to pay any penalty. Such a criticism, of course, is not for the PM to have made – she must remain prime-ministerial aloof. But it would have been a suitable task for a smart cookie like Jason Clare.

    I would say, though, that the incident worked as a net positive for the PM.

    By the way, I’m in sympathy with the protesters. They have balls, and more power to their cause.

  25. ru,

    If the story is derived from Abbott’s interview that has now been replayed in full on most , he’s been verballed by that article.

    If it’s from another source, then that is another question.

  27. Greensborough Growler

    poroti,

    Do the calcs.

    Labour 38.5
    Greens 12 (translates to 9.6 flow @ 80%)
    Independents/Others 7 (translates to 2.1 flow @30%)
    Total TPP 50.2%

    I was not challenging the numbers. I was more joking about the msm actually being the last place you would ever see those numbers. Meanwhile I’ll happily take those numbers !

  28. If the story is derived from Abbott’s interview that has now been replayed in full on most , he’s been verballed by that article.

    He does seem to have been verballed by AAP, then published on every news site in the Country. Why did the AAP journo write it? Do they have to retract an incorrect wire story that ferments anger?

  32. Speaking of Aussies and drinking –

    Judging by the footage from that riot yesterday it seems that Tony Abbott dealt with it all by downing a few glasses of wine. If you found yourself in a glass-walled room with a crowd of angry protestors outside would you have another glass of wine? Or would you think that keeping a clear head be the way to go?

  33. Finnigans were they recent graduates from the B&F Fukushima Greed is Good School of Excellence ?

    Rich Russians ‘bribed their way onto Costa Concordia’s lifeboats by stuffing wads of cash into crew members pockets’

    poroti, they are not graduates from Finns & Boerwar Fukushima School of Corruptive Services. Our graduates dont “stuff” cash into anybody’s pocket, that’s crass.

    Our graduates would still be sipping Martini with the blonde from Moldova, shaken not stirred, with the yellow submarine waiting by the port side, that’s class

  35. Factors for the return of ALP vote.

    (1) Dropped interest rates in Nov & Dec
    (2) PM’s successful conference
    (3) PM’s successful cabinet reshuffle.
    (4) Everyone’s on holidays and feeling good.
    (5) Carr and Labor defending auto jobs while Libs equivocate.
    (6) More aggressive approach by Government Minsiters.
    (7) Genius of Gillard in dealing with Pokie reform
    (8) People being more even handed in their blame about AS policy.
    (9) News that Europe onomies are tanking and we are doing well.

    Don’t think yesterday made the cut. But, I’d expect it to be good news for Gillard and the Government.

  38. Sorry to throw a bucket of cold water on a pants-wettingly good poll, but the Morgan site says that they poll 14 year olds. Um, since when can 14 year olds actually vote? It makes the poll a bit dicey to me.

  41. AJ,

    They eliminate under 18s from the political stuff.

    Morgan surveys other things like biscuts, dog food and underwear at the same time.

    This is not a new revelaton.

  42. I checked with Morgan. That Poll is Face to Face. Any references on the page re Telephone polling are an error. They will update the page.

  46. Sorry to throw a bucket of cold water on a pants-wettingly good poll, but the Morgan site says that they poll 14 year olds. Um, since when can 14 year olds actually vote? It makes the poll a bit dicey to me.

    I think William Bowe ends up dealing with this issue every Morgan poll.

    As I understand it, the responses of those under 18 for political questions are not included in the statistics. However, Morgan, like all the regular polling companies, make their money from doing commercial market survey work where the response of teenage demographics are most certainly of interest; the political stuff is done as a sideline for profile for the company or something.

    Go and see William’s previous explanations, I’m sure he’s more succinct and accurate than I’ve been here.

    All of this doesn’t alter the fact that Morgan is probably the most unreliable of the major polling outfits as evidenced by seemingly higher variability (and sheer wackiness) of their results at times.

  47. …but the Morgan site says that they poll 14 year olds.

    They only count electors.

    …with an Australia-wide cross-section of Australians aged 14+ including 1,921 electors, of all electors surveyed, 6% did not name a party.

  48. It is the pokies”backflip” or voters are relieved that the Government is no longer in the influence of Wilkie. I have felt relief from friends that the pokie tax has been removed.

  49. They’ve been feeling sory for Abbott for a long time then.

    Well so have i.

    The only pussy yesterday was Abbott.

    I have refrained from picking on Gillard or Abbott and how they acted. However both of them are soft Politician’s who both looked like they were going to wet them self. Totally expected by being placed in such a situation, Mr Body guard looked all business due to training.

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