Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the first Essential Research poll for the year has the two-party vote at the same place as the final poll last year, with the Coalition leading 54-46. Also featured are leaders’ personal ratings which you can read about at the link. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full post here. The voting intention figures are a rolling average of the last result last year and the first result this year – Essential advises me that in both periods the result was 54-46. Results to questions on leadership approval are derived as always from this week’s sample only. Both leaders are up three on approval and down two on disapproval since a month ago, Julia Gillard to 37 per cent and 52 per cent, Tony Abbott to 35 per cent and 51 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Gillard’s lead going from 39-35 to 39-36. It should be noted that polls conducted over the new year period are often thought to be unreliable, although neither Essential nor Morgan has produced anything out of the ordinary.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,645 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  3. Victoria @ 5349

    bemused

    I believe if Mr Thomson is quite certain he has done nothing wrong, he should speak out as a MP. Look at Ms Sophie Mirabella. There are very serious questions about her character and conduct. It does not stop her mouthing off at every opportunity. Labor MPs need to grow a spine and start being more assertive

    Do you mean by ‘done nothing wrong’, ‘not convicted of any crime’? Unfortunately, that is not sufficient. There are lots of things which are obviously wrong but not necessarily illegal.

    The difference with Mirabella is that a Government does not hang on her future. She too may not have committed any crime. But it sure has a bad look and you really wouldn’t want her on your team would you?

    I agree with your comments as they apply to all other ALP members.

  4. Victoria
    [Of course when the Libs get in they will go ahead with a greak pokies reform policy, carbon price policy, mining tax and the NBN.]
    I don’t suggest any of those things will happen, or that I want Tony Abbott to ever be PM. But I think that is where we are headed. Every perceived “defeat” for the government hastens it, every perceived weakness reduces the likelihood that marginal voters will vote for Labor. I think it is a truism that people generally vote against a governmetn, rather than for an opposition. So decisions like this do damage.

    bemused,

    Sorry yes, Craig Thompson, not Andrew.

    GG

    No. The productivity commission recommendations are here:
    http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/95685/03-recommendations-findings.pdf

    It is true that they recommend a trial and full implementation of pre-commitment by 2016. However the trial is to be in each state and territory not just the ACT. There are many other recommendations also not being implemented. I think Prof. Borrell was quite accurate in her comments, if you read the article. This is a cave-in.

  5. Socrates

    The msm, coalition and the Greens are doing their level best to state that everything the govt does is a perceived defeat. What is new?

  6. Further to 5354, the $1 bet limit was also one of the PC recommendations that has been ignored. Other ignored recommendations include rules on proximity to ATMs, accessibility of machines, education and greater enforcement of existing regulations.

  7. bemused

    As I said, if Craig Thomson has a clear conscience. He should be able to Speak on behalf of his electorate and the govt. No ifs and buts

  14. [AUSTRALIAN policy on asylum seekers arriving by boat should always adhere to international law, a former defence force chief says.

    Retired Admiral Chris Barrie believes the number of people arriving illegally by boat to Australian shores is likely to increase, but he has concerns about coalition plans to have the Navy turn back vessels to Indonesia.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/boat-policy-must-stick-to-global-law/story-e6frf7jx-1226250994480

  15. [ifonly
    Posted Sunday, January 22, 2012 at 4:09 pm | Permalink

    a single delivery platform with content providers competing is like a single airline with anyone allowed to sell tickets (and buses and trains stopped).

    Lets keep everything and let the consumer decide.]

    This occupied a lot of argument from ifonly yesterday. But I’m not sure why. Surely if we had another situation like Optus and Telstra rolling out separate cables in the same street, we are wasting capital better spent on broadening the infrastructure.

    Negative NBN myths have been demolished elsewhere – lost the link at present. Windsor has been right on this issue from the beginning. It is game-changing positively for regional Australia.

  16. victoria @ 5357

    bemused

    As I said, if Craig Thomson has a clear conscience. He should be able to Speak on behalf of his electorate and the govt. No ifs and buts

    Victoria, it is no doubt because you are such a nice and totally ethical person that you don’t realise that some people will have a clear conscience no matter what outrageous behaviour they engage in. Exhibit 1: Tony Abbott.

    Fairly or unfairly, he is now damaged goods and has no future in politics. It would appear that, at the very least, he has behaved foolishly.

  18. I love the Media breathlessly reporting Tony Abbott’s every word , how about reporting key independent Tony Windsor, where he warned Andrew Wilkie that his legislation wouldn’t go through and compromise. No, Media report Tony Abbott saying you can never trust Julia Gillard and this is from a man who confessed that you don’t believe anything he says unless it is written and signed..

    Date and time
    January 23, 2012, 8:38AM

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/backflip-about-trust-abbott-20120122-1qc8r.html#ixzz1kEKe4GxP

    Have managed to get my comment published in The Age, drawn a couple predictable replies

    I like your comment Victoria(5363) probably very true

  22. What a mess! Hopefully it will pass soon. Gillard was between a rock and a hard place. A backbench delegation saw her before Xmas and warned of the clubs backlash – I assume the warning was also a veiled threat re numbers (as I understand Rudd has not supported the reforms). Now Wilkie has made a veiled threat to block supply. Wonderful.

    Not looking good as the new year begins.

  23. GD @ 5365

    This occupied a lot of argument from ifonly yesterday. But I’m not sure why. Surely if we had another situation like Optus and Telstra rolling out separate cables in the same street, we are wasting capital better spent on broadening the infrastructure.

    Negative NBN myths have been demolished elsewhere – lost the link at present. Windsor has been right on this issue from the beginning. It is game-changing positively for regional Australia.

    Exactly.

    There was a piece on Breakfast this morning with a person from Diamantina Shire in Qld talking about their efforts to get Fibre Optic cable there so they would not have to rely on satellite. They are doing all they can. Putting up money to get Telstra to do a study and provide cost estimates and prepared to tip in bucket loads of Shire money (to be matched by State Govt) to get that Fibre installed by NBN.

    I will see if I can find a link and put it up.

    I bet there are similar communities, businesses and individuals all over the country of a similar mind. Well they have a stark choice at the next election.

  26. BH

    Good to hear that daughter progressing well. On my end, I get daily report of her adventures. She is having a good time. Apparently, she went to a spa where little fish massage and clean your feet. She liked that. Which is very surprising. She is quite squeamish generally!!!

  28. Sensible stuff from Phil Coorey, in my opinion:

    ”
    Gillard emerges from the encounter with her unfortunate reputation as a deal breaker enhanced and the Opposition Leader armed with fresh material. But the Prime Minister has defused an issue that was tearing Labor apart and destabilising her leadership.

    Many MPs, especially in NSW, were openly hostile to Wilkie’s demands because of the grief they were getting from the clubs lobby.

    The former prime minister Kevin Rudd was using the dissent as leverage for his push to take back the leadership. His frequent and pointed refusals towards the end of last year to endorse the mandatory pre-commitment policy were regarded as sending a subliminal message to the MPs in the firing line: make him leader and he would send Wilkie packing.

    Gillard’s more formidable challenge remains to lift Labor’s standing in the polls. Her leadership will live or die on those figures, which begin next month.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/wilkie-blow-not-lethal-for-labor-20120122-1qc9d.html#ixzz1kEO6rJBg“

  30. [However the trial is to be in each state and territory not just the ACT. ]

    Socrates – did the Productivity Commission actually ask Clubs Australia if they would agree to a trial in each state. I bet they didn’t because they know what the answer would have been. Perhaps the PC needed to be a little realistic as well.

    I guess when Kev commissioned the report they thought they had carte blanche to make any recommendation because Kev would pick them up regardless.

    I don’t disagree with the recommendations but perhaps working with Clubs Australia should have been the way to go. Who knows now.

  31. bemused

    5234

    You have just identified a good reason to join. You are needed to assist the renewal process. What general area are you in?

    I’m in the inner-west.

  32. BH

    I know that the Fed govt was working with the Tasmanian govt to conduct a trial there. But they were unable to get agreement from the clubs there

  33. Looks like the Shire of Dimantina is in Bruce Scott’s electorate. Perhaps the Shire should be asking their Federal member why he isn’t doing more to ensure the NBN comes to their community.

  34. Our parliament, government, opposition and independents, collectively failed to protect our society from the harm of the electronic gaming machines, when Mr Wilkie had the courage to give them the opportunity to do so.

    This failure is an indictment of the weakness of our parliamentary system to the power of vested interests.

  35. Is there a way to use regulation rather than legislation to improve the “benefits” of the pokies in the community?
    From some info posted here, an extremely small percentage goes to communities and there is ample room for it to be rorted.
    Does the removal of ATMs have to go through FedParl ?

  36. BH @ 5380

    I don’t disagree with the recommendations but perhaps working with Clubs Australia should have been the way to go. Who knows now.

    Noble sentiment but I think it would be as fruitful as trying to work with the opposition on things.

  37. Socrates,

    So the PC did recommend a trial of Pre commitment.
    A trial of pre committment is proceeding in 2013. The PM announced it!
    So, any fatuous attempts to present the Government’s actions as a cave in are self evidently, bull shit!.

  38. BH
    [Socrates – did the Productivity Commission actually ask Clubs Australia if they would agree to a trial in each state. I bet they didn’t because they know what the answer would have been. Perhaps the PC needed to be a little realistic as well.]
    No, the productivity commission followed its normal process. It asked for submissions, got them, including from Clubs Australia, evaluated them, then reached a conclusion. The government buckled and did not introduce that conclusion.

    Are you suggesting that no PC finding can be implemented without the agreement of the affected industry? Good luck reforming cigarettes.

  39. bemused@5373:

    There was a piece on Breakfast this morning with a person from Diamantina Shire in Qld talking about their efforts to get Fibre Optic cable there so they would not have to rely on satellite.

    I don’t know what the present set up is, but back when satellite was the only way I could get decent internet access for the system I was responsible for, satellite was only the downlink. To get the info, it went via telephone. Maybe that’s changed, I don’t know.

    But what cannot have changed is latency. The speed of light is fixed (well, close enough, despite the neutrino problem!) and the signal goes up to the satellite from the server, then is broadcast to the satellite dish, two trips through space. If instead the original signal is sent to the server by satellite as well, that’s four trips altogether.

    What this means is that the delay can easily be more than a second. I’m sure readers have seen satellite hookups where a question is asked by a TV presenter of someone in a dogforsaken part of the world, and that person stands there like a dill until he/she hears the question, and can respond.

    In the case of internet access, it means that skype is much less useable, and if something must be done in real time, or close to it, such as monitoring or actually doing a medical procedure from some distance away, satellite is simply not good enough.

  40. [victoria
    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 9:56 am | Permalink
    mari

    My 5363 is actually a question to you re why twitter was getting a pasting over.]

    Sorry misunderstood you, it is still overcapacity so down, just in the tweets that I read and respond to they were coming in very quickly , mainly over the poker machines, Tow back Tony solution to refugee boats, RN Breakfast show etc

  41. K

    Your posts have been very enjoyable, but why are you now risking a ban? We need your great contributions. No need for this. Pretty please.

  42. [What a mess! Hopefully it will pass soon. Gillard was between a rock and a hard place. A backbench delegation saw her before Xmas and warned of the clubs backlash – I assume the warning was also a veiled threat re numbers (as I understand Rudd has not supported the reforms). Now Wilkie has made a veiled threat to block supply. Wonderful.

    Not looking good as the new year begins.]
    Here is a person who has swalled the OO’s take hook, line and sinker. Nothing, I repeat nothing Wilkie has said is different to what he was saying last year. He has repeated that he will not support a willy, nilly censure motion. It has to be brought on because of government impropriety.
    With the NSW and Qld Labor members being worried are you suggesting they are wrong in their assessment of their chances next election re the pokie issue? Surely they would know if anyone would.
    As far as assuming they threatened her leadership, why that assumption and why the assumption Kev is against the legislation. Point to where he says that or is that another one of those, ‘well he didn’t say he did therefore he doesn’t’ type arguments?

  43. Hi everyone and happy new year !. Heard this on ABC radio this morning. …….And that was Fran Kelly talking over the prime minister Julie Gillard.

  44. Bobalot @ 5381

    I’m in the inner-west.

    Not an area I am familiar with but I might suggest you check with your local members office, assuming they are ALP, to find what branches are close to you. Failing that, State Office SHOULD assist but would not rely on that alone.

    Not sure if there are any ALP members from your area that are PB regulars and could assist. Perhaps they could identify themselves to you? MTBW is south west and also a lapsed member, Musrum is St George area. All I know, I was hoping I could suggest someone from our ranks that you could contact.

    I hope you proceed. Always happy to offer whatever assistance I can through here or directly if you get in touch via William.

  45. [confessions
    Posted Monday, January 23, 2012 at 9:59 am | Permalink
    mari:

    Yes, something has happened to twitter – it’s very slow today.]

    It is now saying overcapacity and I can’t access it

  46. PTMD @ 5384

    Our parliament, government, opposition and independents, collectively failed to protect our society from the harm of the electronic gaming machines, when Mr Wilkie had the courage to give them the opportunity to do so.

    This failure is an indictment of the weakness of our parliamentary system to the power of vested interests.

    Good assessment. Plenty of blame to share around but I would include Wilkie as he was so inflexible he could not muster the support of enough independents.

  47. Gary

    I haven’t read anything in the OO on this issue, so don’t make baseless assumptions.

    It is reported in Fairfax today that Saffin and Kelly saw Gillard before Xmas and warned her about the dire consequences of following Wilkie blindly. Rudd repeatedly refused to countenance mandatory pre-commitment – may be significant, may be not.

    I caught up with a well placed source over Xmas who told me Rudd had the numbers in about August last year.

    I am making an assessment – my assessment – of the ALP politics of this issue.

    I am not regurgitating News Ltd’s line.

    I suggest you also read Phil Coorey – if you hold the same view, you might also email him that he “is a person who has swalled the OO’s take hook, line and sinker”.

  49. According to the PM this morning it will cost taxpayers $36 million to compensate pokies operators in Canberra for their losses in agreeing to the 12 month trial. It shouldn’t be too hard to extrapolate from this to come up with a rough figure of the cost to implement pre-committment Australia-wide. It would be an interesting extrapolation.

    Last week some experts estimated the overall loss would be $360 million which roughly would estimate that Canberra has 10% of pokies in the country. Seems a touch unbelievable.

  50. [So the PC did recommend a trial of Pre commitment.
    A trial of pre committment is proceeding in 2013. The PM announced it!
    So, any fatuous attempts to present the Government’s actions as a cave in are self evidently, bull shit!.]
    I’m afraid it’s the old Green ‘all or nothing’ approach going on here. Forget about step by step advancement. It’s go in like a bull at a gate and damn the consequences. Some here are crying about the government heading to ‘slaughter’ at the next election for not taking the big step on the pokies then argue they need to take that big step which would result in Labor losing bulk seats in Qld and NSW where Labor has to win to remain in government. Amazing stuff.

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