Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.

You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,890 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. scarps

    i thought it was in axum

    [The Ethiopian Orthodox Church claims that the Church of Our Lady Mary of Zion in Aksum houses the Biblical Ark of the Covenant in which lie the Tablets of Law upon which the Ten Commandments are inscribed.[4] This same church was the site where Ethiopian emperors were crowned for centuries until the reign of Fasilides, then again beginning with Yohannes IV until the end of the empire. Axum is considered to be the holiest city in Ethiopia and is an important destination of pilgrimages.[4] [5]Significant religious festivals are the T’imk’et Festival (known as the Epiphany in western Christianity) on 7 January and the Festival of Maryam Zion in late November]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axum

  2. Dee

    [The government when doing press conferences or interviews should start answering silly questions with a question.]

    I’ve said this a million times. Start mocking the fekers and make them look like the biased and/or brainless twits they pretty much all are

  3. Piece by Wendy Harmer in The Hoopla today – sorry about the long link

    [Today my daughter is going to a surf education class at school. I trust her teachers are not going to tell her that if she swims out too far she might fall off the edge of the earth.

    Because when John Howard pleads that teachers should offer the view in schools that climate change is not man-made, he’s off the planet. Almost prehistoric.]

    http://thehoopla.com.au/howard-medieval-li/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The+Hoopla+Dec+13&utm_content=The+Hoopla+Dec+13+CID_23ce0d4a2ec9bd5930c4726c7ed06db1&utm_source=Email+marketing+software&utm_term=Read+More

  4. my say

    [So are you on the pm twitter do u get messages from her]

    I get messages from her all the time: “georgie, please be a sweetie and photoshop up this one of Abbott for me. Let me know when you have it on your Flickr feed. Gotta run, I’m up next to answer stupid question #4,765 from the Rabbit in parliament. Catch you later for a round of boilermakers”

  5. George, mr combet does this perhaps shorten will does albo

    The press gave up reporting. News long ago
    Do they all want to out do each other
    Do they want to have the prize for the most negative nasty story of the day.

    They are ranked very low in the occupation list I think
    Is thsts on google somewhere,

    U woulfnt let your kids be one would you,
    With tht exception of the overseas appointments

    Hope the new late line lady stays the same, I doubt it.
    Where is jones going

    Its all very quite

  6. Conroy remains the Govt’s best communicator – his NPC performance today was a classic. Even managed to use ( inadvertently) a banned swearword. Handled questions with frankness, ease and normal language. Julia could do better than have a look at the tape.

  7. George
    [I’ve said this a million times. Start mocking the fekers and make them look like the biased and/or brainless twits they pretty much all are]
    Exactly!
    Become the smiling assassin. Mock them!
    Have a go at the journo who asks the tabloid questions. Ask the pack if they are interested in what is important to the nation etc…but as moi said with humour.
    Everyone’s going on about the PM stamping her authority on the party but it is the media she needs to do this to.

  8. Harmer just getting warmed up!

    [Howard should also shield from harmful gamma rays, the deluded Archbishop of Sydney, George Pell, who says that climate change “extremism” is the work of “pagans”.

    Both of them should be turned away from the school gate.

    No matter what they would like to believe, the science is real on human contribution to climate change.

    Meanwhile, the protégé of both Howard and Pell, Tony Abbott, is just getting warmed up.]

  9. I just love ‘Christians’ like Loree Rudd who preach certain Old Testament laws at us to justify their stance on gay marriage, but conveniently overlook all the others. The law of Moses tells us slavery is fine as long as the slaves come from other countries and recommends selling your daughters into slavery (presumably to overseas tourists). The law of Moses says that anyone who works on the Sabbath should be put to death – so much for weekend trading and penalty rates. I hope Loree has never been shopping on a Saturday. Food is another problem – the law forbids eating shellfish so I hope Loree isn’t planning a seafood spread for Christmas, or roast pork, or ham – also forbidden. I hope she doesn’t enjoy Beef Stroganoff – it’s off the menu too, as meat and milk cannot be cooked together. I hope Loree Rudd doesn’t wear polycotton clothing – it’s breaking the law of Moses to wear garments made of mixed fibres. At least being unmarried and childless means she doesn’t have to worry about stoning her son to death if he becomes rebellious.

    You can only claim that same sex marriage is breaking a law set down by Moses if you obey all his other laws as well. You cannot argue that today’s Christians don’t have to obey all the ancient Jewish laws, just one of them. Either you accept that these days none of them apply to us in the 21st century or you obey the lot. You can’t pick and choose.

  10. I didn’t see “Rambo” Conroy at the NCP. But I tell you he is one of the reasons Malcolm has gone even jet greyer over the last couple of years or so 🙂

  11. George I love you,

    Our miricale baby is also George

    Seriously
    May be I have not filled in my twitter thingo I. N,correct tly

    So I follow jg, do I get her tweets in my emaili

    Got fake Julia once, gave her the heve ho,
    But i don’t get the real julia. Lol

  12. al palster – thanks re Conroy. I missed all but the last 2 questions so will catch it on Apac later.

    Not surprisingly, Speers asked a question about Australia Network and wants all the info released for Sky. ‘In your dreams’, Conroy sort of said!

  13. leone@1713

    Either you accept that these days none of them apply to us in the 21st century or you obey the lot. You can’t pick and choose.

    I disagree. They can pick and choose. They just need to justify their choices.

  14. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Communications Minister Stephen Conroy drops the f-word at the National Press Club – ‘that’s F***ing fantastic…’ #daytimeviewingMinister]

    Oh dear. The next sideshow obsession from the msm.

  15. my say, Mlcolm knows he will never get the numbers in the Liberal Party to be PM.

    He is much more hated than Rudd in their respective parties.

    Turnbull should go out a legend and either become an independent or turn on :mrgreen: in the election campaign for the good of the country.

  16. we can get excited over parliamentary or press club performances. They mean nothing if the MSM continue their current ways.

    I would like to see more of Gillard and the ministry directly calling particular journalists on their bias and ridiculous questions and spin. What have they got to lose? Refuse to answer the Grattan or Franklin question. Call them out eg. Grattan this morning with her “henchmen” story. Change the media ownership laws back (wishful thinking I know)

  17. Leonie

    You know the fish on friday thing,
    There was a n ex priest that I happen to know very well, speaking
    some time ago, apparently there was a time in the biblical areas, u know greece, italy somewhere there,the story goes that the fishermen where having a slow time of it,
    Bright idea from Rome,
    tell them they must eat fish on friday

    Don’t know if its true or he was joking, but that’s how silly these man made decrees are

  18. My Say
    [Centre what has happened to MT ambitious nature, he looks as though he has lost interest in life,]
    My Say I commented on MT yesterday, noting he looks like his light is dimming.
    He does look mightily disinterested.

  19. I think Gary put it well earlier how a lot of the MSM’s problem is its inability to get over Kevin Rudd’s dismissal. I believe the media sees this as Gillard’s ‘original sin’ and that she’ll always be damned by it in their eyes. Which is ridiculous because it gets a lot of facts wrong, but that’s the power of mythology.

  20. my say

    About the fish on Friday thing – it amuses me no end that people who have no religious faith whatsoever insist on eating fish on Good Friday. They have no idea why they do it apart from a vague idea that it’s traditional and they turn what is supposed to be the last day of Lent and a day of fasting into a day of pigging out on mountains of seafood. The queues at the local fish and chips shops here are huge on Good Friday.

  21. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    RT @samanthamaiden: Kim carr on new gig: “Whilst this change of portfolio was not of my choosing, it is a job I am honoured to do.”]

  22. [Enough already!
    The media is doing my head in.
    The government when doing press conferences or interviews should start answering silly questions with a question.]
    Or when asked one of the obvious questions about Rudd/Gillard, broken promises etc. the response should be “I’m not going to discuss Liberal Party talking points” or “I’ll leave you to discuss the Liberal Party talking points”.

    The point must be put across that the ‘journalists’ are getting their lead from another source.

  23. Leone,

    Ms Rudd has simply resigned from the ALP. She has given all the courtesy of knowing why she has resigned from the Party. I would have thought that she has simply exercised her democratic rights and that should be respected not ridiculed.

    I doubt she is seeking yours or any one elses approval for her decision.

  24. [I think Gary put it well earlier how a lot of the MSM’s problem is its inability to get over Kevin Rudd’s dismissal.]

    I disagree. For the last few weeks the focus has been on policy which is the govt’s strength and the opposition’s weakness, hence the media appearing to have eased off a bit on the govt.

    But now that the focus is back on Labor’s internal stuff, this plays to the opposition’s strength, and so the media is back on the Abbott bandwagon. The sooner the new ministry can get sworn in, bed itself down, and get back to talking policy, journos will be forced to look at the coalition.

  25. [But now that the focus is back on Labor’s internal stuff, this plays to the opposition’s strength, and so the media is back on the Abbott bandwagon. The sooner the new ministry can get sworn in, bed itself down, and get back to talking policy, journos will be forced to look at the coalition.]
    It’s not the government focussing on internal stuff.

  26. Leonie
    yes I have a laugh about that to,

    There are things non believes do to,
    But want go there,
    Its good u and I can look objectively at the church and decide for ourselves,
    The abbott type catholics must live in fear of man made decrees
    poor things, I feel very free but still have faith

  27. Leonie
    yes I have a laugh about that to,

    There are things non believes do to,
    But want go there,
    Its good u and I can look objectively at the church and decide for ourselves,
    The abbott type catholics must live in fear of man made decrees
    poor things, I feel very free but still have faith

  28. [Can’t listen to Morrison anymore. What a screecher!]

    confessions – Morrison today and it was Graeme Morris sceeching yesterday. Not everything is going well on the Oppn side, I’d say. They have absolutely no reason to be screechy if they believe the polls.

  29. Gus
    [thats not a question, thats an opinion,please ask a question next time]
    George
    [are you stating an opinion, or do you have a question?]
    Spot on!

  30. [Howard makes a retrospective bid for historic irrelevance.]

    All that’s left is for him to stand on the footpath holding up a sign “will pay you to ask me questions”

  31. GG
    Don’t be so patrinicing

    Ms rudd had no need, to tell any one

    I cancelled one of my catholic magazines for the opp. Reason I didn’t tell tne press about it
    Leonie and i see tne church in a different way to your self

  32. The Libyan Half-arsed War of 1973 is not all over red rover, as was predicted here on PB and nowhere else, I believe, in the Australian MSM.

    The western MSM has largely stopped reporting the various Libyan murders and mayhems. Perhaps they regard the ‘problem’ as having been ‘solved’ now that the war has ‘finished’?

    Mr Rudd may even have heard the latest battle as he moved in and out of Tripoli airport. Fortunately for Mr Rudd!, noted warmonger and enthusiast for the Half-arsed War of 1973, the lazy Australian MSM quoted his sanitised quotes verbatim and dutifully took a piccie of him kneeling! (reverently) in front of a WW2 grave. Mr Rudd! cares personally for an unknown deceased Aussi WW2 soldier!

    The Zintan rebs, who are in military control of Tripoli airport, opened fire on an advancing column of ‘national army’ troops. Blood was shed and at least one person killed. The outcome is unclear. There are around 150 groups, such as the Zintan rebs, armed to the teeth with Mr Ghaddafi’s leavings.

    Oh, and the Zintan rebs, very isolated as they were, successfully held off the full force of Mr Ghaddafi’s army for quite a while. They are a bit above the Libyan rag tag average in terms of determination and military competence.

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