Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.

You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,890 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 30 of 138
1 … 29 30 31 … 138

  3. Leveson is going hard, these reporters lead to the lawyers and up ‘to the highest level’ and sidewise to the police.

    Leveson doesn’t have to win a jury here – he gets to write the recommendations.

  6. Mod Lib, you need a break, you are having a shocker 😎

    The CPRS had to be shelved, the Greens (opportunists) wouldn’t vote for it, they rejected on two occasions. Given that an election was approaching, shelving the CPRS was the right and only practical and logical course to take.

    Labor did NOT shelve action on climate change. They went to the election with a promise to price carbon.

    Guess what?

    Forget the Julya MSM and Liberal propaganda, she DELIVERED!

  8. Puff

    [Can we subcontract Leveson to do a similar inquiry here? Or could the Limeys just expand this one to take in the Antipodes and we will ship our witnesses over?]

    It is simply a case of one size fits all and that would be a fair and balanced description of the mordor empire, corrupt, sleazy, phone hacking, (insert any descriptors here).

    Regime changers whether its governments or Corporate bosses, but never media barons.

    This bloke Thurlbeck is a confused joke and Mr Jay is crucifying him. If it was some poor joe i would feel sorry but being a mordor myrmidon i am actually being lifted.

    The fact that Oz media does not follow this enquiry like the Guardian is the worlds biggest joke.

  9. Does Neville understand that while he is explaining how he evinced stories by threatening is exactly what they are doing to him right now? No I don’t think so.

  12. [more bile from michelle grattan on the age website – really someone needs to speak to her!!]

    Ms Grattan used to believe she was the most powerful woman in political circles, unfortunately for her another woman is proving to be her better and she is bitter and twisted as a result. Her black and wrinkled heart now knows she is second rate and her writing now has a tendancy to show that even second rate is beyond her reach.

  18. [Duplicitous Abbott strikes again. What’ll the moderates do about it. Absolutely nothing.]

    Of course not. And everyone’s going to blame Gillard anyway, so he’ll get a pass on it. Yet again.

  20. I agree PNG might have have been better off as a state of Australia.

    i think a larger HoR would remove any need to a change in the number of current seats per state.

    And we might not be spending time having the silly boat debate.

  21. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    It will be a small contribution form BK this morning as he is about to set off for a 70 minutes journey to do a spot of work.
    Not much positive stuff for the government in the papers this morning. La Stupenda and Phil Coorey get in for a serve at Gillard’s new ministerial arrangements and another Ruddstoration mention. Not worthy of links.
    This article by Dick Gross poses some very difficult though important questions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/blogs/godless-gross/where-do-faith-and-state-separate-20111209-1oml2.html
    Cathy Wilcox on the pokies saga.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    I’d say Max Moore-Wilton is the target of Ron Tandberg today.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html

  23. Girls Power.

    [Gillard: ‘Nicola, Tanya and Julie understand the challenges Australian women face as they seek to build a career’ – JULIA GILLARD has hailed the promotion of three women in her ministry reshuffle as a sign that her government is in tune with the challenges facing working women

    Nicola Roxon, a mother of one, has become the nation’s first female Attorney-General. She has been replaced as Health Minster by Tanya Plibersek, a mother of three. The newest minister, Julie Collins, has three children. All the women are in their 40s.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillard-nicola-tanya-and-julie-understand-the-challenges-australian-women-face-as-they-seek-to-build-a-career-20111212-1orkr.html#ixzz1gLm9iuhw

  24. So much for the Nirvana and Heavenly Peace that the Greens have been seeking for:

    [In China and India – the world’s two biggest developing nations – the media reaction to the Durban climate talks agreement was cautiously upbeat.

    The China Daily, which is the government’s mouthpiece to the English speaking world, was optimistic: “The flexibility all parties have shown to reach an agreement at the end of the Durban climate summit offers a glimmer of hope for our children and grandchildren,” one of its commentators said. The article noted that much work still needed to be done but placed the blame firmly on nations that industrialised earlier. “The days of wrangling in Durban have again revealed the lack of political will from some developed countries and their willingness to ignore their historical responsibilities and the fact that they have shifted the bulk of their manufacturing to developing countries.”……………………….. Elements of the Indian media struck a more nationalistic and triumphalist tone. “India took over centre stage as a force to reckon with, regained its position as the leader and moral voice of the developing world as the EU and the US were forced to address its demands,” claimed the Times of India, which added that environment minister Jayanthi Natarajan had become “the voice” of the developing world.]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/dec/12/durban-climate-china-india-upbeat?newsfeed=true

  26. I seem to remember they said the same thing abut Phillip Hughes when he made that 2 centuries in each inning in South Africa:

    [Proving ground: Warner’s bittersweet ton shows he has arrived, and is here to stay – WHEN David Warner plundered his remarkable century for NSW against Chennai in the Twenty20 Champions League it was impossible not to marvel at the shots he played. In Hobart, arguably the bigger factor recommending him to the longest form of the game were the shots he did not play.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/proving-ground-warners-bittersweet-ton-shows-he-has-arrived-and-is-here-to-stay-20111212-1ork7.html#ixzz1gLrg9cnB

  27. [sprocket_
    Posted Monday, December 12, 2011 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    Just browsing over on the OO site, and the opinion writers with the “premium” content are not tempting me to jump the pay wall.

    States’ rights will be the big issue
    Chris Kenny

    CANBERRA is grabbing power across a range of state responsibilities. A reckoning looms.

    23 comments on this story

    Durban deal isolates Gillard
    Tim Wilson

    AUSTRALIA’S carbon tax will be implemented years before we know what others will do. ]

    So Tim Wilson’s there? Behind a paywall? What, isn’t the ABC paying IPA enough now?

  28. I am starting my Daily CROCpot Report From the Deep North:

    [A CROC wrangler has told how he was close to jumping in the water with a 5.2m saltie to save two tourists trapped in Darwin’s notorious Cage of Death.

    Nigel Palmer was about to ram an axe handle, named Thumper, in the jaws of crocodile Denzel in a bid to rescue the shaken pair.

    Mr Palmer was operating the steel framed, perspex-sided cage at Crocosaurus Cove, Darwin City, on October 15 when the main chain that lowers it into the water snapped.

    The cage dropped from about 2m, hitting the water at an angle, tipping on its side and causing it to partially submerge.

    “The moment (the chain) snapped there was an incredible noise that shocked me a bit, I was a bit unsure about what was going on,” he said.]

    http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2011/12/10/277545_ntnews.html

  29. Finns
    it would be interesting to know if Obama wakes up to find good news. About himself
    O and David. cameron

    Or is it just our mob who live in the world of negativity
    I bet they have miserable lives.
    Anyone who has nothing positive to say surely cannot be happy.
    Take abbott,he never looks at peace with himself,
    Jouarlists on media seem to angry faces waiting for. Gotcha moments commentators sneerat each others point of view,
    Even the negative nellies here,in my minds eye imagine them as kill joy figure, seeing things that are not there, summing up people before they have performed.

    All this in the country of great wealth,but of course, the wealthy in the wealthy country want more
    My be they don’t under stand being the richest person in the grave yard,
    Is not living

    Gee I wish it was different,
    All I would like for christmas and new year is a dozen mike carltons in the media.w
    Or similar
    When will they ever,learn

  32. [My be they don’t under stand being the richest person in the grave yard,
    Is not living]

    my say, i often ask “where is the life you have lost in living?”

  33. Very well said, My Say. I always enjoy your speaking from the heart, mixed in with folk wisdom and experience.

    Don’t worry too much about the negative vibes. We could indeed do with more Mike Carltons. I wonder if there might be scope for his Whinger Competition on a Current Affair or the 7pm report? It would be pretty funny and might lead to a lot more people understanding how trivial all these whingers are.

    And, of course, at PB we can always look forward to positive vibes when Ian and so many others post.

  34. James Massola’s collection of today’s front pages. He doesn’t have access to The AFR or West Australian.

    The Advertiser http://twitpic.com/7sg7cm
    Hobart Mercury http://twitpic.com/7sg7g2
    The SMH http://twitpic.com/7sg7kh
    The Age http://twitpic.com/7sg7mg
    Daily Telegraph http://twitpic.com/7sg7pn
    NT News http://twitpic.com/7sg7sc
    The Herald Sun http://twitpic.com/7sg7xn
    The Courier Mail http://twitpic.com/7sg80v
    The Australian http://twitpic.com/7sg83s

  35. Leroy
    who james masolla,
    Noticed him on your tweet page
    Can u recommend some well rounded good commentators or just ordinary folk like us
    to follow from your page left a couple of comments

  36. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillard-rewards-backers-with-super-ministries/story-fn59niix-1226220370027

    Front page story for The Australian.

    [Julia Gillard rewards backers with super-ministries
    by: Sid Maher
    From: The Australian
    December 13, 2011 12:00AM

    JULIA Gillard has moved to sharpen the government’s political sales message, promoting Greg Combet and Bill Shorten in a ministerial reshuffle that has rewarded supporters and elevated a record number of women to cabinet.

    But the reshuffle has sparked tensions over the dumping from cabinet of Kim Carr, a former Gillard supporter now seen as sympathetic to Kevin Rudd, and led one minister to describe the changes as more about “spin” than policy.

    The Prime Minister was also forced to fend off suggestions that her decision to expand the cabinet by two places was because senior ministers refused to go. Senior sources last night denied reports that Peter Garrett and Robert McClelland had threatened to resign from parliament if they were demoted.]

    More in the article. Sid’s sources deny what the DT’s “sources” said about threats to resign.

  37. http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/newshome/12319903/gillard-reshuffles-ministry/

    AAP report on various sites. As you’d expect, its the most sensible one

    [Ministry reshuffle adds to firepower: PM
    By Paul Osborne, AAP Senior Political Writer, AAP Updated December 12, 2011, 8:58 pm
    Prime Minister Julia Gillard says her reshuffled cabinet, which includes three new faces, will give her Labor government extra “firepower” in 2012.

    With Small Business Minister Nick Sherry announcing he will go to the backbench before retiring from the Senate in 2013, Ms Gillard has boosted her cabinet to 22 members, elevating Bill Shorten, Tanya Plibersek and Mark Butler, and demoting industry minister Kim Carr.]

    More in the article

  38. [JULIA Gillard has moved to sharpen the government’s political sales message, promoting Greg Combet and Bill Shorten in a ministerial reshuffle that has rewarded supporters and elevated a record number of women to cabinet.]

    just caught Tanya Plibersek on ABC24News – classy as, prepared, sharp and an excellent communicator who can frame the discussion the way it needs to go. Doesn’t roll out the quips like Shorten, but JG has done really well putting these two into “front of camera” jobs.

    haven’t seen all that much of Mark Butler, but suspect we are about to see a whole lot more.

  39. Noticed andrew elders tweet, re abbott
    Agree, if you read what abbott says about re shuffles
    I read In to it that the last sentance is what he fears tne most,

    But the.n He may not work out if you leave peoples out in the cold you end up being out there with half of them

  40. My Say – James Massola is a Journo with The Australian. Not my favourite journo, but he is providing a usefull service with the front pages. Will have a look later for good commentator good on the reshuffle, and think about who’d I recommend overall.

  41. Leroy
    Posted Tuesday, December 13, 2011 at 8:03 am | Permalink

    James Massola is a Journo with The Australian

    Also the arsehole who outed Grog.

  42. I wonder why Cassidy feels the need to write crap like this:

    [The sweeping ministerial changes are commendable and sensible. The best talent has been rewarded.

    The fact that they needed to be made at all is the problem for the Government.]

    So the ministerial changes are “commendable and sensible”, but putting “commendable and sensible” people into the ministry is “a problem for the government”.

    (Shakes head… maybe I should have another coffee?)

  44. Morning all. To me what is striking today on the on-line news sites is how little coverage the Cabinet reshuffle has seen. On a day of no major stories it is rarely even the top item.

    Meanwhile the IEA can barely disguise its disappointment about the outcome of the climate change talks in Durban. Combet may deserve congratulations for his management of the Carbon Tax bill here, but the same cannot be said for his international peers. Durban just agreed to more talks, putting off action till post 2015.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/energy-agency-warning-over-durban-agreement-20111212-1orid.html

  45. I think yesterdays events were very telling about the authority each leader has in the party room.

    Gillard failed to get her way and could not move out underperformers/those who have been disloyal AND that every detail of the reshuffle was leaked before and after the event.

    Compared with…

    A line of Senior Shadow Cabinet members Pyne, Turnbull, Brandis, Hockey, Bilson, Hunt, Scullion (that we know about) try to beg Abbott for a conscience vote on gay marriage. Some of their most senior players and a near majority of the Liberal members of cabinet could not sway their leader. It shows whoe really pulls Abbott’s strings- the Nats and the far right. It shows that the moderates even when they work together are totally powerless. The best they hope for (like under post-2001 Howard) is a leaked story of their defiance.

  47. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    I see that John Howard has joined the #CC Deniers, just like he denied the Stolen Generation and refused to say “Sorry” #auspol
    3 seconds ago

  48. BlueGreen

    Sure you have a much better handle on Libs politics than I do. Seems there are at least 7 in the moderate camp (more than I thought). Surely there ARE deep divisions in the Lib ranks

    Ddespite the party’s polling Abbott is still unpopular. Surely there are destabilisers in the LNP waiting to pounce – Not Turnbull who is still on the outer

  49. GG
    [Duplicitous Abbott strikes again. What’ll the moderates do about it. Absolutely nothing.]

    It seems a perfectly reasonable position to stick to an election promise, especially when breaking it would overturn a social policy that’s been in place throughout human history. The same applies to the ALP. Why has this suddenly become so urgent that it can’t wait till after the next election?

  50. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    How long before John Howard joins the Intelligent Design brigade? or maybe he has #auspol
    1 minute ago

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 30 of 138
1 … 29 30 31 … 138