Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published its latest face-to-face poll result on Thursday rather than the more usual Friday, and as usual the numbers require a fair degree of explanation. The headline figure of 56.5-43.5 looks like a shocker for Labor, given that this series normally leans in their favour. However, this turns out to be an artefact of Morgan favouring the respondent-allocated method of distributing minor party and independent preferences, and their odd tendency for these allocations to greatly favour the Coalition more than past election results and the respondent-allocated figures produced by Nielsen. When preferences are distributed as per the result of the previous election, which is the standard practice for all other pollsters, the result is well in line with other recent polling at 53.5-46.5. Since the previous face-to-face result a fortnight ago, both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote – Labor to 34.5 per cent, the Coalition to 47 per cent – with the Greens down two to 11.5 per cent. Labor has softened half a point on both two-party preferred measures. The poll combines results from Morgan’s last two regular weekend survey periods, accounting for a total sample of 1788.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,204 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [Abbott has been propped up by the likes of Bolt and the shockjocks.]

    He’s also been propped up by the rest of them. But when the herd-followers find something else to focus on, all that’s left singing for Abbott are the shockjocks and the News ltd blowhards.

    He’s made his bed.

  2. [Just like there is with Howard! The 2007 election result was a mistake, the 2010 election result was treachery by O and W, voters just need to be reminded of how good it was under Howard and we can go back there, etc etc.

    Bring it on.]

    Ah yes, that part’s very clear in how much of current LNP ‘policy’ is just ‘make it like it was under Howard again’. Its going to be neat seeing how the far right responds to any changed Lib policies in Abbott’s wake.

  3. More than 50% of the good folks in the Sunshine State prefers Abbott as PM. I despair. Since when did political opportunism, lack of vision and vacuity become acceptable qualities of a PM?

  4. Almost half the Queensland respondents agree Abbott “has nothing constructive to say because he doesn’t have any better ideas” according to that Galaxy

  5. [robot

    Posted Friday, November 18, 2011 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    More than 50% of the good folks in the Sunshine State prefers Abbott as PM. I despair. Since when did political opportunism, lack of vision and vacuity become acceptable qualities of a PM?

    They elected Joh as Premier for almost 20 years – nuff said.


    [Gillard to unveil ambitious Asia disaster response plan
    Daniel Flitton, Indonesia
    November 19, 2011

    JULIA Gillard will pitch an ambitious ”disaster rapid response” plan to leaders from across Asia, with Australia offering to fund new emergency measures for the region to better cope with a Japan-style earthquake and tsunami.

    The plan drawn up by Australia and Indonesia – which hosts the East Asia Summit beginning in Bali today – would involve countries including China and the US instantly sharing sensitive satellite images, damage and casualty reports after a natural disaster.]

    More in the article

  7. 1158

    To be fair their was malaportionment helping that significantly. The Liberals probably would have been senior Coalition partner without it and the ALP may have won in 1972 (And thus no Albert Field and Supply delaying).

  8. Holy cow!

    [The plot to get Gough
    Philip Dorling
    November 19, 2011

    MEDIA baron Rupert Murdoch and former prime minister Malcolm Fraser exchanged secrets, including intelligence information, in efforts to politically destroy Labor leader Gough Whitlam.

    Documents released by the National Archives, including a personal file compiled by Murdoch and notes of Fraser’s attorney-general, Bob Ellicott, show that the media magnate and prime minister worked together on Murdoch’s biggest personal scoop – a front page revelation in The Australian of February 25, 1976, that Whitlam had secretly sought a massive election campaign donation from Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi Baath Party.]

    More in the article

  9. [More than 50% of the good folks in the Sunshine State prefers Abbott as PM. I despair. Since when did political opportunism, lack of vision and vacuity become acceptable qualities of a PM?]
    I was driving behind a QLD rego plated car tonight (in Sydney): “The smart state”.


  10. [More than 50% of the good folks in the Sunshine State prefers Abbott as PM. I despair. Since when did political opportunism, lack of vision and vacuity become acceptable qualities of a PM?]

    Give them 2 more years before passing judgement 🙂

  11. [GrogsGamut Greg Jericho
    If you fancy a late night laugh, read about Scott Morrison talking about the “borders of our values”

    the fibs are entering the twilight zone]
    And Scott Morrison having a lateish run for Liberal leadership! Definitely time for bed…

  12. The revelations about Murdoch colluding with the Liberals to overthrow Whitlam are surely not news, if mum’s recollections of the era are true?

    We already know that the current Liberal leader colludes with News ltd, as Crikey reported after the budget this year when Abbott and the DT editor (and Terry McCrann of all people) met to discuss how they intended discrediting it.

  13. Spanish Socialists face massive defeat
    The right wing Popular Party is likely to inflict a heavy defeat on the Socialist Govt in Spain this weekend
    Poll give the Socialists only 29% to the conservatives 46%
    The huge leap in the jobless and harsh austerity measures have made the regime most unpopular

  14. [Those in the ALP who support a conscience vote believe if the Coalition grants its MPs the same freedom, there is a good chance a private member’s bill put to Parliament will pass.]

    I’d love to know who the Liberals and/or Nationals MPs are who support same sex marriage.

  15. JV #1115

    [Frank and any others who don’t believe Gillard made a promise to the ACL on gay marriage, here is the video The Australian article linked earlier was referring to.]

    Interesting that Gillard’s references were consistently on Labor party policy as determined at the National conference (held in 2008) – a policy she helped to develop – and that was the policy she would uphold; as Labor PM’s are bound to do, and has so far done. Notice how carefully she chooses her words. She was, as any Fed political lobbyist (inc Australian Christian Lobby Group) would know, a barrister and Partner in Slater & Gordon. Choosing words carefully is her stock-in-trade.

    Both the main ALP Party web site and the ALP government site define the triennial timing and role of the National Conference.

    ALP Policies
    ALP policies are determined at State and National Conferences. The National Conference, now held once every parliamentary term, is the supreme policy-making body of the party. Its decisions are theoretically binding on the elected ALP members of parliament.

    National Conference
    National Conference is the Federal ALP’s highest decision-making forum and the National Platform outlines Labor’s long-term principles. The conference is held usually every three years to consider amendments to the Party platform, resolutions, and conduct other business.

    Notice that, during the part of the interview covering marriage/ same-sex marriage, at no time was the PM asked what she would do if the 2011 ALP NatConf altered the policy. Yet any lobbyist (inc for the ACL) would know that it’s NatConf which decides policy; therefore policy on marriage would remain in place at least until late 2011; but that any policy, including on marriage, could then be changed – or NOT changed in 2011.

    It is (at best) disingenuous (but more likely downright dishonest) for anyone who listens to the PM’s words, especially a Lobbyist, to interpret them as an election promise that there would be no changes during the whole parliamentary term, even if the NatConf changed the policy

    That the PM said she’d implement NatConf policy; but did not make an all-inclusive “election promise” is further supported by the 2 other preElection2010 extracts on the ACL site Labor in gay-marriage clash (No election commitment here!)

    [THE controversial issue of same-sex marriage is dividing Labor politicians just months out from state and federal elections …

    Last week, Ms Gillard said the marriage act that recognises marriage as between a man and a woman is appropriate, but the government would take steps to equalise treatment for gay couples.]

    21 July 2010 Heterosexual marriage is society’s bedrock by Bill Muehlenberg, secretary of the Family Council of Victoria)

    Someone who knows better has deliberately misrepresented what the Prime Minister said about her marriage/ same-sex marriage policies, with the intention of making her out to be a liar. That it was done by part of the Murdoch organisation, on a Newspoll Friday, after the PM enjoyed days of good press coverage (and Abbott’s partisan speech was widely disparaged) says it all about NewsLtd’s agenda and journos.

  16. You know, the more I look at Abbott, the more I realise that he’s just a cypher for uncertainty (and rage in some quarters). In a slightly more respectable mode than Hanson, yes; but basically the same deal.

    The lack of policies goes strongly to this conclusion. If true that means he’ll die in the arse as soon as the govt calms people down.

  17. [Don’t worry Ozzie, the next Newspoll will still be 52-48 and sliding for the bad guys.]

    As far as I’m concerned the next election is already Gillard’s to lose.

  18. Who are the coalition MPs who would vote for legalised same sex marriage? I’d genuinely like to know.

    Teresa Gambarro? Kelly O’Dwyer? Senator Brandis SC? Simon Birmingham? Where does JBishop or Mal Washer stand? What about Fiona Nash?

    C’mon press gallery, get to work!

  19. Lefty, I think Obama was the sedative to sooth the masses.

    If Obama and all he represents supports Gillard and what she is doing, Abbott and his gang of braying naysayers will be further discredited in the eyes of those who crave reassurance.

  20. [Lefty, I think Obama was the sedative to sooth the masses.

    If Obama and all he represents supports Gillard and what she is doing, Abbott and his gang of braying naysayers will be further discredited in the eyes of those who crave reassurance.]

    I agree Fulvio, even though ironically Obama in a large part was voted in on an anti-war platform, and his visit was mostly a military exercise.

  21. Good morning all :))) hoping for a swing to Labor in today’s bye election. Is TA in poor health? Seem to remember Her Maj being warned before their audience a few weeks ago to keep her distance. Read somewhere yesterday he announced he had a type of ‘flu. He looks very pale and drawn – in stark comparison to the PM who is positively glowing with good health… Maybe too much road running and too little work.

  22. Just a quick comment, I am off to see the family for a week or so, however when I got up this morning, looked out and saw a whale, I thought they had all passed but this must be a straggler, was lucky to see it, but a beautiful clear day here so it stood out against the blue, looked a couple minutes later and it was gone, so no hanging around to play.
    May the force be with you and the trend keep going the right way

  23. A Shorter Shaun Carney:

    [“Don’t be fooled by the Vibe. Lookatthepolls! Lookatthepolls!”]

    Carney joins the rest of the Fairfax opinionistas in sour-pussing their way through The Columns They Had To Write, acknowledging a shift from the “catastrophic to the merely dreadful”.

    He notes the following:

    [There are signs that the endless election campaign that began with Abbott’s ascension might have exhausted itself. A combination of scheduled events, most notably Barack Obama’s visit to Australia, and a greater emphasis on fundamental ”Labor” issues by the government have improved Labor’s outlook.]

    That’s right, our old friend, The Passive Voice. Abbott’s ascension has “exhausted itself”.

    The only hope Abbott gave the punters was perpetual war, but – in an incredibly shallow analysis for one of the supposed patricians of the press – Carney manages to pick some publicity stunts and a couple of tours by the Great and Good to our shores as the reasons for Abbott’s slipping. No blame for the “exhaustion” of his “ascension” seems to have been directed at the man himself being (at last) seen as the dickhead he is.

    Anyone can sprint out in front of the pack, showing off their acceleration capabilities. Even Abbott knows this. He’s a triathelete after all. It’s the slow and steady that gets them every time. To be still in with a chance at the finish you have to pace yourself.

    Abbott’s “exhaustion” is due to the paucity of his strategy, more an end-on-end collection of different versions of the same tactic. He went for an election within 12 months and didn’t get it. He was running the wrong race.

    It’s time to be serious now, but can the Tonester do it? The World Wonders. Carney does not.

    Part of the regulation Fairfax commentary response is to lament the government’s “inability” to sell their own message. Many have noticed that here too, but the reason is just as much the Media’s predeliction to harangue, mock and get “bored” by everything – professional nihilism, if you like – as it is the government’s hamfistedness.

    Gillard sure is doing it the hard way, getting down on her hands and knees cleaning each tile in the bathroom with a scraper and a scouring pad (as I did myself this week) to get all the paint spots off, so she can start with a really clean floor.

    Carney, usually a serial complainer and knocker of Labor’s focus group “obsession”, finds himself urging Labor to go for spin, a quick slosh with the mop and, fingers crossed, no-one will notice once the guests start arriving and the grog starts flowing.

    What Carney fails to appreciate is that no matter what she does the shock jocks, the rampants in the Murdoch poison network and the professional arm-chair generals will invent imaginary tests and then tell us, a column or two later, Gillard failed them.

    This is an especially popular practice at Fairfax.

    So, in the end is it best to have the appearance of a clean slate, or the reality of one?

    Carney mentions…

    [Next Thursday will mark the fourth anniversary of Labor’s rise to power and the defeat of the Howard government.]

    … arguing that Labor has gotten nowhere. Eh?

    Well, see, Shaun’s not doing the usual patrician thing and discussing 250 pieces of successful legislation, the building of infrastructure, waffling on about policy and generally intoning on good governance. Shaun’s talking about The Polls.

    Labor had 43.5% of the primary vote in 2007, and now look at it… 30%.

    Let’s forget for a moment that Shaun confidently predicted just a few short weeks ago that Labor “insiders” had told him (obligatory tap of the side of the nose here) the government’s polls numbers were heading south from 26%. Make no mistake, Shaun assured us, they can go lower, and they will. As I said, let’s forget that bit.

    What I wanted to point out is that Shaun is now rating the government’s performance on their poll performance, not only their current poll performance, but their past performance. He seems to have forgotten that if you climb a mountain and look back, the ground is always lower behind you. That’s what improvement (and climbing mountains) is all about. Whatever happened to Shaun’s patrician concern with the good of the nation? Why is he worrying about Lions versus Christians in the Circus Maximus when Rome might catch fire any moment?

    As I’ve noticed of late in commenting on the wisdom of Hartcher, Henderson, Grattan and now Carney, the Fairfax stable of political scribes only stay pleasant when Labor is tanking in the polls. They wrote about the Grand Highway to national prosperity, the achievements of the government that, somehow (you’d have to ask the media why, the other media, that is) seem to be ignored by the ignorant proles in their disgusting tenements.

    But as soon as Labor starts to improve, it turns out the Fairfax philosopher-journos are just as obsessed with the day to day race calling as any overpaid shock jock or boiler room News hack.

    The basic truth is that Abbott brought a sprinting game plan to a marathon. No-one could possibly sustain it. That is the big failure of strategy in Australian politics today. That is the story everyone should be talking about, instead of dismissing it with the passive voice.

    Sure, Carney can mention 4 years and all the government has to show for it is a drop in the polls. But the converse is 4 years and all Abbott has to show for it is a rise in the polls. No sign of policy, or hardly even rational thought. Four years completely wasted in a showy, flashy streak to the lead with another 25 kilometres to go.

    Shaun doesn’t seem concerned with any of this. In the back of his mind there’s a faint sort of hope that Abbott will find some policies somewhere. Maybe he’ll stub his toe on one?. More likely he’ll get eaten by a lion, or a sleeping giant.

    One day Carney will realise that all the effort, all the bluster, all the handwringing columns he’s written, all the noise and cheers from the bleachers have ended up with the shallowest sort of success for the Coalition: a crumbling lead in the polls.

    Shaun (although he would have us think otherwise) has been there cheering with all the rest of them, cracking a fat over Newspoll or Neilsen, while crying into his gold cup that things shouldn’t be like this.

    What of the empire?

    What of the glory of Rome?

    Pass the rose water, there’s a stench wafting up from the street.

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