Newspoll has Labor narrowing the two-party gap from 54-46 a fortnight ago to 53-47, with Labor on 32 per cent of the primary vote (up three), the Coalition on 44 per cent (down one) and the Greens on 12 per cent (down three from an aberrant result last time). On all measures, this is Labor’s strongest and the Coalition’s weakest result since May 27-29. Tony Abbott is up two on disapproval to a new high of 57 per cent, with his approval steady on 34 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 30 per cent and 60 per cent, down one in each case. Abbott leads as preferred prime minister 40-39, narrowing from 39-36 last time.
Also:
• The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor up a point to 35 per cent, the Coalition down one to 46 per cent and the Greens down one to 9 per cent. Two-party preferred has also edged a point in Labor’s favour, from 55-45 to 54-46. This is Labor’s best result on two-party since June 14, and on the primary vote since May 16. It exactly replicates Morgan in finding 35 per cent approving of Qantas’s shutdown, but disapproval is 53 per cent rather than 61 per cent. A question on who is to blame substitutes “workers” for “unions” and includes a “both equally” option: the results are 41 per cent management, 20 per cent workers and 31 per cent both. Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved of various parties’ handling of the matter, with pretty much equally bad results for the government, opposition, management, workers (although here the “strongly disapprove” rating was relatively low), Alan Joyce and “union leaders”. Julia Gillard and the government recorded 30 per cent approval and 59 per cent disapproval, against 27 per cent and 45 per cent for Tony Abbott and the opposition. The one party that emerged favourably was Fair Work Australia, with 55 per cent and 21 per cent. There are also questions on media usage which point to an increasing use of the internet as a news source, but not to the extent that respondents would be willing to pay for the content (9 per cent say likely, 88 per cent unlikely).
• Roy Morgan has published preferred Labor and Liberal leader figures from last week’s phone poll. Kevin Rudd leads Julia Gillard 31 per cent to 24 per cent, which sounds better for Gillard than recent Galaxy polls (which unlike Morgan didn’t provide the option of other candidates) which had Rudd leading 53-29 in mid-October and 60-26 in early October. However, it’s almost exactly the same as the result of a similarly framed question from Essential Research in May, which had Rudd leading 32-23. Malcolm Turnbull leads Tony Abbott 38-24, compared with 25-22 from Essential in May and 28-24 from Morgan in March.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports LNP treasurer Barry O’Sullivan is “being mooted as a candidate to replace one of two Queensland senators likely to leave the upper house ahead of the next federal election”, namely Barnaby Joyce, who is plotting a move to the lower house, and Ron Boswell, who recently confirmed to The Australian that he is considering retiring. This emerged before yesterday’s reports from Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail that O’Sullivan “allegedly held a bet at the last federal election where the winner was promised a trip to Bali with two virgins”, and that he “boasted to colleagues about calling one of Queensland’s top cops during an investigation into financial irregularities within the party”. O’Sullivan has also made headlines recently over his robust handling of a recalcitrant state election candidate and involvement in procuring “dirt files” on Labor identities.
• Phillip Hudson of the Herald-Sun reports the Greens will run an “open” how-to-vote card in Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne, rather than direct preferences to Labor. But given the certainty that the Greens will make it to the final count in this electorate, the destination of their preferences is neither here nor there. Antony Green further dissects the limited impact of Greens preference recommendations.
• Heath Aston of the Sun-Herald reports that the Greens’ Senate preselection in NSW looms as a turf war between Bob Brown and Lee Rhiannon, who are respectively said to support state upper house MPs John Kaye and Jeremy Buckingham.
• An opinion piece by William A. Galston in the New York Times cites the Australian example in advocating compulsory voting to redress America’s “intensely polarized politics”, which he says “impedes governance and exacerbates mistrust”. If the recent tenor of political debate in Australia might cause one to look askance at such an observation, it should be noted that American academic Shanto Iyengar observed after a recent trip to our shores that “Australian political discourse appears relatively elevated, at least by American standards”.
Sadly, at the end of of the news on ABC24, S.A. Police confirmed that Peter Roebuck committed suicide.
You are game to call it. Each election has seen a small but steady increase in the Green vote. Even if there is some damage in the lower house on lib prefs the Senate is a totally differnt ball game.
Unreal, i heard him only last friday
Scarpat,
That’s terrible! Apparently, he was a loner. Being alone is fertile ground for dark thoughts.
That was no FTA with the USA – it was a sell out!
Mari 4801
Heard channel 7 news item on carbon tax impact. Unbelievably positive with a reasonable back-hander to those that have exaggerated the price impact. Something seems to have changed in the tone and nature of MSM coverage.
Bi-lateral free trade is suspicious; amongst ten countries with one-third the world’s GDP it’s promising.
Gaffhook, sent you a follow request. Twitter is great for keeping up to date with news and events.
Any other bludgers or lurkers, feel free to follow me at http://twitter.com/#!/Leroy_Lynch and I’ll respond in kind.
CO
For even greater “Shock Horror” Sky News just did the same thing.
Carbon price impact
Perhaps now the legislation has been passed, the journos are ‘reporting’ its reality, instead of reporting all the sturm and drang around it.
[Greensborough Growler
Posted Sunday, November 13, 2011 at 6:50 pm | Permalink
Jackol,
1. There’s only one Tony Abbott! Gillard might lose him if she is not too careful.
2. Minority Government is a drag. The mere suggestion might remind a couple of the new paradigmers that they are here for a good time, not a long time.
3. Put the shivers up the Liberal rabble.
You mean like Kerry Packer said there is only one Alan Bond?
Having a good time on Twitter arn’t the PB’s tonight
the tide has turned
peak abbott passed with the pokies
mal has done the numbers
now he is doing the media
@ poroti and Mari
Wife came outside whilst the Nine news was on and said exactly the same thing, she couldn’t believe it ….. Weird
So much for my imagination!
Anyone know how Mal gets on with Reith? They’re both putting themselves about atm.
Its like there is a puppet and the media are attached, this is all very weird, almost spooky
1984 any one
have accepted your request
and am following you. Now get over there and get with the fun tonight
lizzie,
Turnbull does not have any “dead, buried and cremated” rhetorical baggage. So, a more nuanced response may be forthcoming.
mari,
I prefer your version to mine!
my say,
Eric Blair should have called it “2010”. That’s when that rubbish set in.
joe2,
You know it makes sense.
BK,
And wasn’t Vaile a great negotiator! Sugar, beef, anyone?
lizzie
A bit of a combo of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAXzGkzj5E8 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Hf-B9Tqkss
tlbd,
you name-dropper you.
GG
Half the time I think Malcolm would be a nice, moderate (even intelligent) Lib leader, and half the time I find him ruthless and scary. On second thoughts…
“The Secret Diaries Of Miss Anne Lister” on ABC tonight is another UK product.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1555126/
4866
Of course, have a great imagination
I was thinking about what pk
Said about the punch and judy show
ducky
Don’t get me started!
Scarpat,
Guilty, yonor!
GG
Turnbull has Godwin Gretch baggage. NBN baggage and carbon price baggage.
Are we expecting the outburst of another opinion poll tonight or are we free to wander?
Thhis is all too much for me, all of them wouldn’t have got advance info on the Nielsen Poll would they?
Gusface you could be right with MT, I have never had anything to do with MT yet I get an email addressed to Mari on Pokies
Ducky
Is a Nielsen due this week?
Ducky
I think you are unfair to Vaile – anyone who spoke to him for more than 2 minutes realised he wore elastic sided boots because he had trouble tying laces.
The FTA was all the department’s work
I bet you do
ducky
u could well be right
SMH is picking up the carbon tax theme:
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/carbon-tax-hit-small-csiro-20111112-1ncvq.html
vic,
The Whitewash will be a glory to behold.
Godwin – I’ve made mistakes but I’m a better man!
NBN – No one gets excited about their telephone line unless it doesn’t work.
Carbon Pricing – The Government should be criticised for such weak targets.
There you go Fixed!
victoria – Nielsen is due out tonight/tomorrow.
Keep an eye on the Ghost.
From Poss;
I’m sure William has a similar statement somewhere.
Much nicer place and you will be pleased to know that the storm has passed, ie have come from the “dark side into the lightside” As it appears the media is doing at the moment
lizzie – you were right with the “scary” bit. He IS the big end of town. Remember them falling over themselves to make sure he stayed in parliament after he announced he would leave? Just enough of a faux progressive image to make the well off feel good about voting for him ,and to fool some of the soft heads of the soft left.
At the end of a Turnbull PM-ship, would have a less equal society, be more privatised (health, education, infrastructure) to the point of inefficiency, and have a more “flexible” IR system. Check Victoria for a precedent. Watch for more flexibility on environmental (non Carbon related issues) as well.
He’d be better than Abbott, wouldn’t destroy the place through ignorance and stagnation, we’d just go backwards. But hey, might get consensus for a republic! The friendly face of fascism as I like to think of him.
OC,
Mark The Vaile was the front man. It goes down to him. This was a Jim thing and not a Sir Humphrey one.
Err, wears a white sheet?
Thanks glory
http://www.vexnews.com/2011/11/peter-roebuck-did-the-abc-and-fairfax-turn-a-blind-eye-to-their-own-criminal-sexual-predator/
Surely not?
One of his nicknames in Lyne was Noah
Gaffy, I have requested to follow you on Twitter, when you requested me, but nothing seems to have happened. I do like the photo was that you as wee small boy?
Mari @ 4897
A number of years ago a cricket-mad friend of mine in England strongly suggested something along these lines.
What and run the risk of Labor getting an out right majority and have nothing to keep the mad right in the Labor party under control. I very much doubt it.